Llad Phillips1 Part I Strategies to Estimate Deterrence Part II Optimization of the Criminal Justice...

transcript

Llad Phillips 1

Part IStrategies to Estimate Deterrence

Part IIOptimization of the Criminal

Justice System

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OutlineOutline_ Human Capital & Other NewsHuman Capital & Other News_ Studying for the MidtermStudying for the Midterm_ Deterrence: Deterrence:

_ Evidence proEvidence pro_ Evidence con Evidence con

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Human Capital newsHuman Capital news

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About 60%Of 9th gradersGet a diplomasomewhere

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The highHurdle?Algebra

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Studying For the MidtermStudying For the Midterm

_ http://econ.ucsb.edu/

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Deterrence: conceptual issuesDeterrence: conceptual issues_ Controlling for causality_ Simultaneity

Llad Phillips 13Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice

Expect

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Crime Generation

Crime Control

OffenseRate PerCapita

ExpectedCost ofPunishment

Schematic of the Criminal Justice System

Causes ?

(detention,deterrence)

Expenditures

Weak Link

Control for Causality

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Crime Generation

Crime Control

Causes ?

Expenditures

Weak Link

RecognizeSimultaneity

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News Over the WeekendNews Over the Weekend_ Deep RecessionDeep Recession

high Unemployment ratehigh Unemployment rate

Keynesian EconomicsKeynesian Economics

drop money from a helicopter?drop money from a helicopter?

Or invest in infrastructure?Or invest in infrastructure?

TransportationTransportation

EnergyEnergy

independenceindependence

greengreen

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Greening the EarthGreening the Earth

_ Greening UCSBGreening UCSB_ Rec-CenRec-Cen

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Human development Index and Electricity Use

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UN Human Development Index & Electricity Consumption

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Annual Kwhr Per capita

Production FunctionProduction Function

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Policy Comment About Economic Development

_ An Obama Keynesian strategy: invest in infrastructure_ Past investments in infrastructure

_ Canals_ Railroads_ Paved roads_ Airways_ ?

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Cesare Marchetti“Fifty-Year Pulsation In Human Affairs”

Futures 17(3):376-388 (1986)www.cesaremarchetti.org/archive/scan/

MARCHETTI-069.pdf

Cesare Marchetti“Fifty-Year Pulsation In Human Affairs”

Futures 17(3):376-388 (1986)www.cesaremarchetti.org/archive/scan/

MARCHETTI-069.pdf

_ Example: the construction of railroad miles is logistically distributed

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-10 -5 0 5

RAILMILES

constructed

90%10%

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Cesare MarchettiCesare Marchetti

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Cesare Marchetti: Energy Technology: Coal, Oil, Gas, Nuclear

52 years 57 years 56 years

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Cesare MarchettiCesare Marchetti

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Theodore ModisTheodore Modis

Figure 4. The data points represent the percentage deviation of energy consumption in the US from the natural growth-trend indicated by a fitted S-curve. The gray band is an 8% interval around a sine wave with period 56 years. The black dots and black triangles show what happened after the graph was first put together in 1988.[7] Presently we are

entering a “spring” season. WWI occurred in late “summer” whereas WWII in late “winter”.

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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

HOMICIDECA HOMICIDEUSA

California

Homicide and Non-negligent Manslaaaughter, Rates Per 100,000

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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

HOMICIDECA MISERY

CA Homicide Rate Per 100,000 & Misery Rate in %

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Causality?Causality?

Misery Index Offense Rate

Mystery Force

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-0.004

-0.002

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Residual Actual Fitted

Regress CAINDXPC = a + b*MISERY + e(t)where e(t) = 0.96*e(t-1) + u(t)

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Crime Generation

Crime Control

Causes ?

Expenditures

Weak Link

Control for Causality

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60 70 80 90 00 10 20 30 40

CAPRISONERS

California Prisoners: 1851-1945

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60 70 80 90 00 10 20 30 40

DETREND

detrend = caprisoners - 19.656 - 48.569*time

1851 1945

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-0.004

-0.002

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Residual Actual Fitted

Regression of CAINDXPC on MISERY and CAPRPC

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Questions About CrimeQuestions About Crime

Why is it difficult to empirically Why is it difficult to empirically demonstrate the control effect of deterrence demonstrate the control effect of deterrence on crime?on crime?

What is the empirical evidence that raises What is the empirical evidence that raises questions about deterrence?questions about deterrence?

What is the empirical evidence that supports What is the empirical evidence that supports deterrence?deterrence?

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Evidence Against the Death Penalty Being a DeterrentEvidence Against the Death Penalty Being a Deterrent Contiguous StatesContiguous States

Maine: no death penaltyMaine: no death penalty Vermont: death penaltyVermont: death penalty New Hampshire: death penaltyNew Hampshire: death penalty

Little Variation in the Homicide RateLittle Variation in the Homicide Rate Source: Study by Thorsten Sellin in Hugo Source: Study by Thorsten Sellin in Hugo

Bedau, Bedau, The Death Penalty in AmericaThe Death Penalty in America

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Isaac Ehrlich Study of the Death Penalty: 1933-1969Isaac Ehrlich Study of the Death Penalty: 1933-1969 Homicide Rate Per CapitaHomicide Rate Per Capita

Control VariablesControl Variables probability of arrestprobability of arrest probability of conviction given charged probability of conviction given charged Probability of execution given convictionProbability of execution given conviction

Causal VariablesCausal Variables labor force participation ratelabor force participation rate unemployment rateunemployment rate percent population aged 14-24 yearspercent population aged 14-24 years permanent incomepermanent income trendtrend

Ehrlich Results: Elasticities of Homicide with respect to ControlsEhrlich Results: Elasticities of Homicide with respect to Controls

Control Elasticity Average Valueof Control

Prob. of Arrest -1.6 0.90

Prob. of ConvictionGiven Charged

-0.5 0.43

Prob. of ExecutionGiven Convicted

-0.04 0.026

Source: Isaac Ehrlich, “The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment

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Critique of Ehrlich by Death Penalty OpponentsCritique of Ehrlich by Death Penalty Opponents Time period used: 1933-1968Time period used: 1933-1968

period of declining probability of executionperiod of declining probability of execution Ehrlich did not include probability of Ehrlich did not include probability of

imprisonment given conviction as a control imprisonment given conviction as a control variablevariable

Causal variables included are unconvincing Causal variables included are unconvincing as causes of homicideas causes of homicide

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United States Bureau of Justice Statisticshttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

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What is the Empirical Evidence that Supports Deterrence?What is the Empirical Evidence that Supports Deterrence? Domestic violence and police interventionDomestic violence and police intervention

Experiments with control groupsExperiments with control groups Traffic Black SpotsTraffic Black Spots

Focused enforcement effortsFocused enforcement efforts

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Traffic Black SpotsTraffic Black Spots

Blood AlleyBlood Alley Highway 126Highway 126

San Marcos PassSan Marcos Pass Highway 154Highway 154

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San Marcos Pass ExperimentSan Marcos Pass Experiment

Increase Highway PatrolsIncrease Highway Patrols Increase ArrestsIncrease Arrests

Total accidents decreaseTotal accidents decrease Injury accidents decreaseInjury accidents decrease Accidents involving drinking under the Accidents involving drinking under the

influence decreaseinfluence decrease

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Los Angeles Traffic Map

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Domestic Violence & Police Intervention

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1993-20051993-2005

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Female Victims of Violent Crime, 1973-2003

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Homicides of Intimates, 1976-2005Homicides of Intimates, 1976-2005

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Female Victims of Violent CrimeFemale Victims of Violent Crime

In 1994In 1994 1 homicide for every 23,000 women (12 or older)1 homicide for every 23,000 women (12 or older)

females represented 23% of homicide victims in USfemales represented 23% of homicide victims in US 9 out of 10 female victims were murdered by males9 out of 10 female victims were murdered by males

1 rape for every 270 women1 rape for every 270 women 1 robbery for every 240 women1 robbery for every 240 women 1 assault for every 29 women 1 assault for every 29 women

Victims of Lone Offenders*Annual Average NumbersVictims of Lone Offenders*Annual Average Numbers

Female Male

Known 2,715,000 2,019,400

Intimate 1,008,000 143,400

Relative 304,500 122,000

Acquaintance 1,402,500 1,754,000

Stranger 802,300 1,933,100

* Excludes Homicide

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Average Annual Rate of Violent Victimizations Per 1000 FemalesAverage Annual Rate of Violent Victimizations Per 1000 FemalesFamily Income Total IntimateLess than $10,000 57 20$10,000 - $14,999 47 13$15,000 - $19,999 42 11$20,000 - $29,999 38 10$30,000 - $49,999 31 5$50,000 or more 25 5

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Declining Trends in Intimate Violence: Homicide

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Nonfatal Violent victimization RatesNonfatal Violent victimization Rates

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Nonfatal intimate Victimization Rates By AgeNonfatal intimate Victimization Rates By Age

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Female victimization rates by relationshipFemale victimization rates by relationship

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Intimate homicides by weapon typeIntimate homicides by weapon type

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Domestic Violence in California

http://caag.state.ca.us/

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Domestic Violence Rates in California: 1988-19981988: 113.6 per 100.0001998: 169.9 per 100,000

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Domestic Violence in California1988: 94% Male Arrests1998: 83.5% Male Arrests

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Police Intervention with Experimental ControlsPolice Intervention with Experimental Controls A 911 call from a family memberA 911 call from a family member

the case is randomly assigned for “treatment”the case is randomly assigned for “treatment” A police patrol responds and visits the A police patrol responds and visits the

householdhousehold police calm down the family memberspolice calm down the family members based on the treatment randomly assigned, the based on the treatment randomly assigned, the

police carry out the sanctionspolice carry out the sanctions

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Why is Treatment Assigned Randomly?Why is Treatment Assigned Randomly? To control for unknown causal factorsTo control for unknown causal factors

assign known numbers of cases, for example assign known numbers of cases, for example equal numbers, to each treatmentequal numbers, to each treatment

with this procedure, there should be an even with this procedure, there should be an even distribution of distribution of difficultdifficult cases in each treatment cases in each treatment groupgroup

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911 call(characteristics of household Participants unknown)

Random Assignment

code blue code gold

patrol responds patrol responds

settles the household settles the household

verbally warn the husband take the husband to jail for the night

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Justice System

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Questions About Statistical Studies of DeterrenceQuestions About Statistical Studies of Deterrence_ Do we know enough about the factors that cause Do we know enough about the factors that cause

crime?crime?_ Can we find variables that will control for variation in Can we find variables that will control for variation in

crime generation?crime generation?

_ We have better measures for the factors that We have better measures for the factors that control crime than for the factors that cause crime.control crime than for the factors that cause crime._ Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the

effects of crime control.effects of crime control.

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Crime Generation

Crime Control

Causes ?

Expenditures

Weak Link

per capita expenditures on CJS

offense rate per capita

Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control

Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice

control

Causalfactors

Expenditures per Capita

Offenses Per Capita

Crime Control Technology

South Dakota North Dakota

2500 Index crimesper 100,000 people

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Optimization of the Criminal Justice System (CJS)Optimization of the Criminal Justice System (CJS) Minimize damages to victims plus the costs Minimize damages to victims plus the costs

of control, subject to the crime control of control, subject to the crime control technologytechnology damages to victims per capita = loss rate per damages to victims per capita = loss rate per

offense * offense rate per capitaoffense * offense rate per capita Costs of control = per capita expenditures on CJSCosts of control = per capita expenditures on CJS Total cost = damages + expendituresTotal cost = damages + expenditures

Offenses Per Capita

Total cost = expenditures per capita

Offenses Per Capita

Total cost = damages to victims

5000 Index offenses per 100,000 people = 0.05 per capita

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Offenses Per Capita

0.025 Index crimesper capita

Total cost = $200 per capita = damages to victims = loss rate*0.05so loss rate = $4,000 per Index Crime in South Dakota

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Cost to Victims in US, 1993Offense Loss Rate Reported

OffensesDamages,Billions $

Robbery $13,000 659,757 $8.6

AutoTheft

$4,000 1,561,047 $6.2

Burglary $1,500 2,834,808 $4.3

Larceny $370 7,820,909 $2.4

Total $21.5

Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)

Source: Phillips: Lecture One

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Expenditures per capita

Offenses Per Capita

Family of Total Cost CurvesHigh

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Offenses Per Capita

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Application of the Economic ParadigmApplication of the Economic Paradigm Specify the feasible optionsSpecify the feasible options

the states of the world: Crime control the states of the world: Crime control technologytechnology

Value the optionsValue the options loss rate per offenseloss rate per offense

OptimizeOptimize Pick the lowest cost point on the crime control Pick the lowest cost point on the crime control

technologytechnology

That’s all folks!

Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors

Offenserate percapita

Expected cost(severity) of punishment

crime generation function

Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors

Offenserate percapita

Expected cost(severity) of punishment

crime generation function

High causal conditions

Low causal conditions

Production Function for the Criminal Justice System (CJS)1. Variation in expected costs of punishment with criminal justice system expenditure per capita

Expected costs ofpunishment

Criminal Justice System expenditures per capita

production function

expected cost of punishment

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

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Female Victims of Violent CrimeFemale Victims of Violent Crime

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Long Swings in the Homicide Rate in the US: 1900-1980

Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice

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Long Swings inThe Homicide Rate

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California Homicide Rate Per 100,000: 1952-2003

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Llad Phillips1 Part I Strategies to Estimate Deterrence Part II Optimization of the Criminal Justice...

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