Rational Deterrence

8/19/2019 Rational Deterrence

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Trustees of Princeton University

Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence

Authors(s): Robert Jervis

Source: World Politics, Vol. 41, No. 2 (Jan., 1989), pp. 183-207

Published by: Cambridge University Press

Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2010407

Accessed: 28-03-2016 10:40 UTC

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RATONALDETERRENCE

Theoryand Evdence

By ROBERTJERVS*

AMONGt h e mot mport an t q u e t on n o c a c e n ce are t he

c au e an d e f fe c t of t h re a t an d f orc e n n te rnat on ap o t c w e

arepartcuary nteretednwhenthreatprotectthe tateandwhen by

c ont ra t t h e y e t of f a p ra of c oun te rth rea t t h at e av e b ot h d e w ore

offthantheywoud havebeenhadthe tateadoptedanaternatvepo

cy2Schoar andtatemenwoud fndtheprobemea y ftheeffect

w ere n v arant e f ap rop ery c on t ru ct e d p o c y of t hre at aw ayp ro

tectedthe tatea tmghthaveprotectedBrtan andFrance nthe

930 orf t h re a t aw ay p rov e dn e ff e ct v e orp rovo c at v e a mayh av e

beentheca ebeforeWordWar 3But nfactboththreat andconc a-

toncanproducetheveryconequencetheywerede gnedtoavod

Of e c onc e rn t o t a te me n t han t o c h o ar are met h od oog c ad e

bateoverthereatve advantageofdeductonand nducton4andthe

me rt of t h e orzn gb ae d on t h e a umpt on t h at a c to r b e hav orc an b e

* am gratefu to Davd Badwn Heen M ner Kenneth Oye Robert Shapro and Jack

Snyderforcomment andugget on

For an assessment of the relevant evidence from outside international politics considered

wth n the frameworks deveoped by studes of nternatona deterrence see Pau Stern et a

eds PerspectvesonDeterrenceNew YorkOxfordUnverstyPressforthcomng

2 For an extended dscusson see Robert Jervs Percepton and Mspercepton n nternatona

Politics (Princeton Princeton University Press, I976), chap 3 Also see Aaron Wildavsky,

Practca Consequences of the Theoretca Study of Defense Po cy Pub c Admnstrat on

Review 25 (March i965), 90-I03 For a recent summary of the evidence, see Martin Patchen,

Resovng D sputes Between Natons Coercon or Conc aton? Durham NC Duke Unversty

Press 988 A comp catng factor s that many abstract and seemngy hstor ca or scentf c

arguments are drven by po tca preferences because debates about deterrence are centra to

Amercan foregn po cy Thus many dsagreements about the org ns of Word Wars and

orKhrushchevsratona tyn puttngmss es nCubaarenotpurey academc

3 These cases are more comp cated than the stereotypes commony used by po tca sc-

entsts See Robert Jervs War and Mspercepton Journa of nterdscp nary Hstory 8

(Spring 1988), 685-88 Patrick Glynn, The Sarajevo Fallacy, National Interest, No 9 (Fall

987 3-32 Rchard Ned Lebow and Jance Gross Sten Beyond Deterrence Journa of So-

c a u e 4 3 N o 4 9 88 3 3- 35 -

4 See for exampe Oran R Young Professor Russett ndustrous Taor to a Naked Em-

peror Word Pot cs 2 Apr 969 486-5 Bruce Russett The Young Scence of nter-

natona Po tcs Word Pot cs 22 October 969 87-94 K aus Knorr and James Rosenau

eds Contendng Approaches to nternatona Po tcs Pr nceton Prnceton Unversty Press

9 6 9 e s p M a r onLev y Jr Do es tM a t te r f He s N a ked ?Bawed theCh d



3/26

184WORLDPOLTCS

bet nterpreteda thoughtheywereeekngtomaxm zether ubectve

e x pe c te d u t t e S EU 5n t he e d e b a te of c oure mu ch d e p en d on

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ora theonyu efumethodFurthermorea ChrtopherAchenand

DuncanSnda note6method dffern therut tydependngon the

p e c f c q ue t on b e n g ak e d and t h e p art of t he c e n t f c p roc e u n de r

c on d e ra t on M ot obv ouy w t h ou t c a e t u d e w e c an h av e n o e v

d e nc e E v en f d e du c t ve mod e are p ar mon ou rg orou an dp roduc e

f a c n at n gp rop o t on t h eyw re man t t e more t h an t oyun e t h ey

canbeverfed

Wh en c on d e rn g SEU w e mu t re membert h at th e u t t e an d e x

pectedconequence ofaternatvepo ce areexogenou BeforeSEUcan

t e u mu ch t h e n w e h av e to t e t ag re a t d ea We mu t f orn t an ce

p e c fyw h at t u at on t h e a ct o rt h nk h e f ac ng h ow h e ran k h

g o a w hat op t on h e p e rc e v e an dh ow h e t h n k ot h er are k e y t o

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heformedthem a we a to dentfyngcommonerror ofprocedure

andubtance

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t h eorymu t m manyf ac et of an yn dvdu ac a e t h e t u dy of a t he

c omp e x t e of an yp e c f c e x amp e w f a h ort on g e ne ra z a t on and

p e rh ap on t h e c on f d en c e w t h wh c h c au are a t on h p c an b e e t ab

h e dn p art t h e c h o c e amat te rof n dvdu at a t e B u t t may a o

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5Goodrevew oftheek nd oftheore arePauSchoemaker TheExpectedUt ty

M ode t V arant P u rp o e E vd en c e andLmt at on Journ aof E c on omc L t era tu re 20

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n o t un qu e t op o t c a c e n ce n an th rop oogy t h e argumen t on e d f ore x amp e byM ar

h aS ah n S t on e Ag e Ec onomc Ne w York Adn e 1972 an dMarvn H arr C u t ura

Matera m TheStruggeforaSc enceofCutureNewYorkRandomHoue 979 Arecent

ummary of t he argume nt b e tw e en py c h oog t an d e con om t n t h e a t t er ow n f e d c an

b e f ound n t h e p e c a u e of The Jou rn aof B u n e 59Oc t ob e r986 F ort he argume nt

n o c o ogy e e P auH rc h S t uart M c hae an dRayF re dman D rt yH an d V eru

CeanMode Socoogy nDangerofBengSeducedbyEconomc? TheoryandSocety

6 M ay 987 37-36A o e e M ark Grav ove t te r E c on omc A ct on an d S oc a S t ru c tu re

Th e P rob e mof n d e b te dne Amerc an Journ aof S o c o ogy 9 Nove mbe r985 485 0

A o e e B ran B arry S o c o og t E c on omt an dD emocracyC h c ag oU n v e rt y of C h

c agoP re 1978 F ort he p u rpo e of t h art c e w e q uat e rat on at yw t h probab t y

u t t y c a c u u a m o t a ut ho r d o b ut t h g o e o v e r th e qu e t o n of w he th er t a w ay

ra t ona t o c hoo e by t h c rt eron D on g o f ore xamp e c ou dme an foow n g a p o c y t h at

e n ta e d ome c han ce of e n ormou o an dw e mght n o t w an t t o ay t h at ap e ron w hoc h o e

a af erp o c yw t h aow e re x pe c te d u t t yw a v o a t n g t h e t en e t of a ra t ona mode

6AchenandSnda RatonaDeterrenceTheoryandComparatveCaeStude Word

P o t c 4 Janu ary 989 156-59



4/26

RATONALDETERRENCE JERVS185

whetherthephenomenawearemot ntereted nmoreco eyre embe

c ou d orc o c k 7Sm ary e mpoyngSEU t he ore mp e t h at t h ere

me th odn w h at e e m k e madn e t h o e w hore e c t t h ap p roa c h

oftenhavea verydfferent eneofthepatternof humanbehavor

t of te n a d t h at ca e t u d e are a t he ore t c a n t h at t h ey c an no t g e n

eratenewandpowerfu dea Th gve thembothtoomuchandtoo

t t e c re d t 8On t he on e h an d t h e mp c at on t h at t h e c h o aro ok at

theevdencewthoutanypreconceptonandexpectaton thatcoudd

t ort h e rf n dn g B u t of cou re t h c ann o t be w t h ou t p rev ou yf orme d

d e a n oone c ou dmake an y e n e of t h e w ordOn t h e o t he rh and f n d

n g c au a n k n on e c a e o r t ob e more a c c ura te t h n k ngon e h a

foundthem notony eadto theexpectatonthattheymaybeoperatng

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othercondton thatmghtproducethe ameeffectorthea ternatve

conequence ofthendependentvarabe underd fferentcrcumtance

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t andn gp rodu ce d by c a e t u d e e ad t o c on d t ona an dp rob ab t c

deducton abouthowtatemenareexpectedtobehave

Th e e u b e c t are ob v ouy t oo arge an d c omp e x t ob e f uy c ov ere d

h e re omyt re at men t w b e e e c t ve Af t e rmak n g ome d t n c t on

w k e tc h t he mp edme nt t od e ve opn g an e x pe ct e d u t t ymod e of

d e te rre n ce an d t he n t urn t o t he u e of c a e t u d e f rt o ok ng at t h e

b a e n c a e e e c t on an d t he n d c u n gw hat h ab e e n e arne dby

tudyngdeterrencefa ure Thecentra quetonhere whetherthee

f n dn g c an b e e x p an edby ara t on at h e ory S ome of t he mc an be a

though uchatheorywoudbequted fferentfromourtandardmode

of deterrenceOther arencompatbew thevenareformuatedSEUthe

ory

DEBATESANDDSTNCTONS

Thedebate mentoned ntheprevou paragraphoverapon y n

partFr t deductvetheorzngandexpectedut tymode arenotnec

7S ee G ab re Amon d and S t eph en G e nc o C ou d C o c k an d t he S t udy of P o t c

WordP o t c 29Juy 977 489-522 an dAb ert H rc h man Th e S e arc h f orP arad gm a

aH n dran ce t oP o t c a U nd e rt an dn g WordP o t c 22Apr 970 329-43

8F org oodd c u on e e H arryE ck t e n C ae S t udy an dThe ory n P o t c aS c e n ce

n F redGre en t e n an dNe on P o by e d H andb ook of P o t c a S c e nc e V o 7 Re adn g

MA Addon We e y 97579-37 A e x an d erL G e org e andTmot hyM c Keow n C ae

Stude andTheore ofOrganzatonaDec onMakng nRobertCouamandRchard

Smt h e d Advan ce n n f ormat on P roc e n gn Org an zat on V o 2 Gree nw c h C T JA

P re 985 21-58D on adC ampb e D e gre e of F re ed oman d t he C ae S t u dy C omp ar

t v e P o t c a S t ud e 8 J u y 9 75 7 8- 93



5/26

186WORLDPOLTCS

e ary t h e ame Th e a t te rc an b e app e d t op art c u arc a e w t h ou t

attemptngtogeneratenewpropot on ndeed muchofh toryand

o t c a c e nc e co n t o f n fo rm a a n a y a o ng t he e n e S c ho a r

of te n e e k t oun de rt and t h e g oa b e e f an dp erc ep t on of d e c on

mak er t hat c an mak e t he rp o c e n t e gb e a t h ough app e d t o an y

n g e c a e t h e e xp an at on mu t re man adh oc an dp o t h o c Th u

muchoftheearchforanexpanatonof whyKhruhchevputm e

ntoCubaha nvovedtryngtod coverwhetherhefet thattherewere

g re at g a n t o b e m ad e o r o e t o b e a vo d ed b y d o n g o t hu u t f y ng

c on d e rab e r k orw h et h erh e b e e v e d t hat h ac t on w ere n o t p art c

u ary r k y e t h erb e c au e t h e U n t ed S t a te w ou d acq u e c e o rb e cau e

h e w ou db e ab e t o c on tro an yd ang e rt h at mght ar e

Th e o th e r d e of t h c on t hat d e du c t ve t h eorzn gn e edn o t a ume

rat ona t y on t he p art of a ct o r M ot t h eore n py c h oogy are of t h

t ype F ore x amp e c ogn t v e d on an c e w h c h p o t t h at p e op e e e k t o

reducepychoogca confctaftertheyhavefreeymadean mportant

d e c on e ad t oman y count e rnt u t v e p rop o t on Th e a tt emp t t o

mod e b e e f y t e mof p e op e n g e n era p e op e of a c e rt an k n d orp ar

t c u arn dvdu a a of t n t o th e c a te g ory of d e du c t ve b u t non rat ona

t h e ore 9

Secondone houdnotequateexpectedut tyargument wththe

c amt h at a p e op e w b e hav e t he ame w ayn t h e ame t u at on t h at

w t h argume nt t hat gn ore th e n dvdu a e v e of an ay f e a ch p e r

on rat ona b u t ha d f f ere nt v au e an dmean e nd b e e f t he n b e

h av orw b e d o yn cra t c Th u e x p ec t ed u t t y t he ore are n o t n ec e

ar yp armon ou t oy e dp re d c t on ore x p anat on t h e y oft e n

re qu re ag re at d e aof n format on ab ou t p art c u arn dvdu a an d t

u a t on B y c on tra t p rev a e nt rrat on at e c an produ c e t rong an d m

pe pattern

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u b ta nt v e ar gu me nt T h t ru e n t wo e n e F r t t he re n o n ev

tabeconnectonbetweenanSEUtheoryandonethattre e theueand

e ff c a cy of t h rea t E c on omc t h rv e on SEU mode C onv e re y a t he ory

of d e t erren c e ne edn o t a ume rat on at y n d ee d t q u t e p o b e t h at

threat woudhavebeenchaengedmuchmorefrequentywere tate

me n fuy rat ona Th e o th e rc ap ab t y an d c re d b t ymayb e ov e r

e t mat edw t h out w arran t n p art b e cau e of t h e f ac t or d c u e d b e ow

thatunderothercrcumtancecanundermnedeterrence Furthermore

9See forexampethepathbreakng tudybyRobertAbe onandM tonRoenberg

Symbo c Py c h oog c B e hav oraS c e n ce 3 Janu ary 958 1-13 Art f c a n te g e nc e

m od e a re n t h t ra d t o n



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n ome c a e a ma c h an c e th at an a e rt v e p o c y c ou d e ad t owar

mayd et e re v en t h ou gh u c h c au t on n o t ea y q u are dw t h t he re t of

t h e t a te v au e an db e hav or n d ee d t of te n argu e dn c orrec t y

b e e v e o t h at n u c e ard e t erren c e of at t ac k on a t a te a e k n ow n a

extendeddeterrence ncompatbe wthfu ratonaty Second a

t h ou gh th e u e of c a e t u dyme t hod oogymay c a ra t ona t he ore n t o

qu e t on t h n o t aw ay t he c a e n d ee d e v eraof A e x an de rG e org e

andRchardSmoke fndng partcuarythatdeterrencecanfa when

c h ae n g er are ab e t od e gn aroun d t hre at t ou e f a t a c c omp h ort o

exertcontroedpre urecanbe fodedntoa uffcentycompexra-

tonatheory

Fn ay w e mu t n o t e qu a te f au re of ad e te rre nc e p o c yw t h f au re

ofdeterrencetheory12Mot obvou y thefaureof adeterrentthatwa

badyde gnedormp ementedwoudnotfa fythetheory athought

woudra ethequeton ofwhythetateproduced ucha uboptma

p o c y F u rt h ermore a t a te c an ra t on ay c h oo e t of gh t aw art t h n k

t w prob aby o e f t he g an of w n n n g and/ort h e c o t of a t e rn at v e

p o c e are g re a t en ough 3Sm ary d e te rre nc e u c c e e d on o t con f rm

thetheory ftheyoccurundercrcumtance nwhchthetheorynd

c at e t h ey h ou d f a 4 P a ra e r ea o n n g h ow t ha t u c ce f u p o c e

arenotnecear ytheproductofratona procee norcantheyaway

b e a c cou nt e d forby rat ona t he ore f au re m aryd on o t p rov e r

r at o na t y T o t a ke u t t he m p e t c a e w d g a mb e o me t me p ay

of f an dp o c e t h at are op t ma c an p rov e d a t rou n an yp art c u ar

cae

RATONAL DETERRENCETHEORES

Th e f rt t ep n u dgn g t h e v ad t y of ra t ona d e te rre n ce t h eoryRD T

t o e t abh w he t he rt n te n de d t ob e d e c rp t ve p re c rp t v e or

b o th 5 f p re c rp t v e t ayw h at a ct o r h ou dd o t omaxmze t h e r

o Se eRo b er tJ erv s De te r renceTheo ry Rev s t ed Wo rd Po t c s 3 J a nua ry 9 7 9 2 9 9-

30 an dThe og c of Amerc an Nuc e arS t ra t egy t h ac aNY C orn e U n v er t yP re 984

AexanderL GeorgeandRchardSmokeDeterrencen AmercanForegnPocy New

Y ork C oumb aU n v e rt yP re 974 59-33A A c he n and Sn d a f n 6 n o te h owe v er

theepropo ton werereachednductvey

12F orf urt he rd c u on e e A ch e n an d Sn d a f n 6 52Rc h ardNedL e b ow D e

t e rre nc e AP o t c a an dPy c h oog c aC rt q u e n S t ern f n Ge org e Que t e r S ome

Thought onDeterrenceFaure bd

3 J er v f n 3 6 77 -7 9-

14Forfurtherd cu on eeGeorgeandSmoke DeterrenceandForegnPo cy Word

P o t c 41Jan uary 989170-82

15A c he n an d Sn d a a e rt on t h at RD Th a n f u en c ed p o c y t h e n mpe t hat t c ou dn o t

p r ev o us y exp a nt A chena nd Snd a fn 6 1 5 3 Fo r a d s cuss o no fthe a t e rna tvep ur -

po e of S EU mod e e e S ch o emake rf n 5 538-4



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188WORLDPOLTCS

t t y bu t t h ayn o t h n g abou t h ow t h ey ac t uay b e hav e n mc ro

economc SEUtheore canbebothdecrptve andprecrptvebecaue

oftheargumentthatonythoe whobehaven accordancewththemcan

f ou rh n n t e rnat ona p o t c t h e argume n t e v en e c onvn c n gb e

c au e t h e n umbe rof act o r mu ch mae r t hu dmn h n g t h e p ow er

of t he e v ou t onary og c 6 n d ee dman yRDTw rt n g are c e arymean t

t on f u e nc e t a t e me n w h c h mpe t h at t h e rb e hav ord o e n o t ora t

e a t d d n o t fo ow t he p re c rp t on 7 Th e ca e t u dy t e ra t ure by

c ont ra t e x p c t yd e c rp t v e an d e xp an atorybu t u u ay mpe t h at

betterreu t woudhavefo owedf tatemenhadbehaveddfferenty

n de e d a w e h a e e b e ow t of te n argu e t h at d et e rre nc e w ore a

precrptonthana decrpton manym fortune areattrbutedto

t a te me n f oow n g ap art c u arv e ron of t

A re a t ed ambgu t y t he e v e a t w h c h RDTapp e d o e t d e aw t h

natonabehavor nternatonaoutcome orboth?f theformer what

a umpt on are t h e a c to r mak ng ab out h ow t he o t h erw re ac t ? n

ome c a e e ff e ct v e b e hav or p rem e d on t he ad v erarymak n g an

error fnotbehavngrratona y SEUandgametheorymaybecompat

b e b u t th e y are n o t d e nt c a Tu rn n g t oou tc ome t c e art hat w h at

ra t ona f ort he n dvdu a mayb e b ad f ort he c o e c t v e t h e P ron e r

Demmafurtherhow thatftwopeope areratona theycaneachbe

woreoffthantheywoudhavebeenhadbothbeen rratona fboth

de actonRDT w eachbebetteroffthanf thadbehavedd fferenty?

n d ee d b e c au e t d e a w t h t ra t eg c n t era ct on RD Tmayn ot b e ab e

topredctexactyhowa tatehoud behaveorwhat nternatonaout

c ome ac t on w produ ce t t h en h ard tod e v e op v e rf ab e p ropo

t on f romt h e t he ore E c on omt h ave n o t b ee n ab e t omode t h e b e

h av orof o g opo t n eary a d e te rmn t c a y a t h eyh av e t hat of t he

wheatfarmerfacngamarkethecannot nfuence ThegameofChcken

6B u t e e Ke n ne th Wat zTh e ory of n t e rnat ona P o t c Re adn gMA Addon We e y

979Th e ap p c a t on of t he d e aof ev ou t onarydyn amc n ot e nt re y t raght forward

Trat w t h u rvv av au e d on o t au tomat c ay ap pe art h ey c an u rvv e e v en f t h ey ac k u c h

vaue Agreatdeadepend ontheharhne oftheenvronmentandthecompetton For

g oodd c u on of e v ou t on and SEU mode e e Rc h ardNe on an d Sydn e yWn te rAn

EvoutonaryTheoryofEconomcChangeCambrdgeHarvardUnvertyPre 982 and

TmothyMcKeown TheLmtaton ofStructura Theore ofCommerca Pocy nter

n at ona Organ za t on 40W n te r986 52-55

17Wh et h erp re c rp t v e d e c rp t v e orb o t h t of te n unc e arw he t he rt h e c am t h at

t h e po c y an ap propra t e w ay t ore a ch t h e p eron g o a ort h e be t w ay t od o oTh e a t te r

an d t ron g erc am obv ouy e x t re me ydf f c u t t ov erf y n c e d ong ore q u re c omparn g

t he re u t of t he p o c yw t h t ho e mput ed t o a t e rnat v e n on e v er on t ho e p o c e t h e

peronthoughtofand nanotherver ona thoethatcoudhavebeenadopted A trct nter

p ret a t on of S EU w oud mpy t h at t h e p o c y t h e be t on e mot t e t n o c a c e n ce more

modety eektodemontratethatthepocy adequateforthegoa



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choar cannotproducedeductonon themode n tuatonXtheac

t o raw ay h ou d orw doY We c an t ry t oh ow t h at t h e a ct o rc a

c u a t on are c on t e nt w t h d e te rre n ce b u t th re qu re o ok ng n to t h e

b a c k b ox of de c on mak ng8

A t t h p on t h ow ev e rt h e g re a te t d f f c u t y n a e n gRD T d e te r

mn n g e x ac t yw h at t A A c he n and Sn d an o t e t h e g en e ra a ump

t on of S EU c an y e d an e n ormoun umbe rof u b t an t v e t he ore Th ere

thennooneRDT onecanarguethatthereareat eata manytheore

a thereareauthor orthattherearenotheore becauenooneha de

v e ope d on e w t h u f f c e nt rg orA c h e n and Sn d a b re f u b t an t v e

d c u on of d et e rre nc e u t ra te t h e prob e m9Wh e t t rue t h at

omeratona deterrencetheort havepontedto thenegatveapectof

d e fe n v e y t e m u c h ac v d e fe n e t he AB M an d SD o t he rre e c t

t h p o t on argun g t h at u n e t h e Un t e d S ta t e re t an ome ab t y t o

p rot ec t t e f t t hre at w ac k c re d b t y 20The d ag re eme nt p art y

rooted ndfference aboutthepoturethat betfora country kethe

U n t ed S t a te t h at n e ed t op rot e ct n o t on y t h ome an dbut a o t a

e t a o c a u ed b y d c r ep an t v ew o f t h e go a a nd b e e f o f t he

SovetUnonqueton that eout deageneratheoryofdeterrence

B ut w h at mport an t n t h c ont e xt t h at b o t h pon t of v e w c an be

mod e e d a RD TS

Th ambgutymake thetheoryextremeyhardtod confrmAre

wetocounttheReaganadmn traton advocacyofSD a evdence

g an t t he v ad t y of ra t on ad e t erren c e? t he f a c t f t af a c t th at

theSovetUnondoe notapprecatethevrtue ofmutuavunerab ty

evdencethatthearm anddoctrneofat eatoneof theuperpower

cannotbeexpanedby th theory? RDTconfrmedbythefactthatthe

Ru an w t h drew t h e rm e f romC ub aord c onf rmedb e c au e

theydepoyedthem nthefr tpaceand wereabetoexact ome

c onc e on f romt h e Un t e d S ta t e a t h e prc e f orw t h drawa?

18A good ummary of re ev ant t e ra t ure Robe rt W on D et e rre nc e n O gopo t c

C omp e t t on n S t ern e t a e d f n

9A ch e n and Sn d a f n 6 153

20S e e f ore xamp e Ab e rt Woh t e tt e r Sw ordW t hou t Sh e d Nat ona n t ere t No

8 S umme r987 3 57C o n GrayNu c e arS t rat egy an dNat on aS t y e L an hamMD

H amt on P re 986P art of t h e ex p an at on f ort h d pu te ad ag re e me nt on w h et he r

d ec o n m ak er f oc u o n r e at v e or a b o u te g a n a n d o e S ee J er v f n O 9 84 5 9- 63

ArthurSten Demma ofnterdependenceLogc ofnternatonaConfct andCooperaton

forthcomng



9/26

190WORLDPOLTCS

EMPRCALCRT CSMSANDSECONDWAVEDETERRENCETHEORY

Weneedtod tngu hbetweentheknd ofRDTthatcoudbedeve

opedandthoethathavebeenmotthoroughy d cu edSomeofthe

c rt c m rae d by e mprc a t u d e 2are ame d at t h e f ormerman y

howeverarea medattheatter Thebetknownandbet deveoped

RDTknowna ca ca or econdwave deterrencetheory22

make an umbe rof re t rc t v e aump t on un re a te d t ora t on at y Th e e

n c u de t h e t a te ad ve rary h gh ymot v at e d to e x p an d t h e ad ve rary

un de rt and t h at t h e t a t e d e fe n v e an d t he e ade ron b o t h d e are

c onc e rn e dman yw t h t he e x t ern a t u at on Th p art y e x p an w h y

th e f oc u on t hre at an d o t t e ro e f ore e e n f or n duc e me n t M an y

f n dn g c on trad c t th e e au x ary a umpt on bu t cou db e a c commo

datedbya broaderRDT Thu RchardNedLebowandJanceStenhave

demontratedthat tatemenmayadoptdeterrencepoc e thatarenot

n t h e n at on a n t ere t b e c au e t h e y are a c t n g on t he b a of t he rd o

me t c orp e ron a n t ere t F ore xamp e on e re aon w hyNe hruman

tanedthe forwardpo cy n962agan tcredbe threat byChnato

t ake d pu te d t errt oryw a t h at h e h ad t ak edh d ome t c p o t c af or

t u ne on t an dn gf rm23Wh e t h k n d of b e hav ord o e n o t f t t h e

ec ondw av e mod e an d k e y t on c rea e c on f c t t he re n o th n g

n ec e ar y rra t on a ab out t a t hou gh a w e w n ote b e ow dome t c

p re u re of t e n e ad t o e v e re yb a e dn f ormat on pro ce n g

Sm ary ara t on at h eory c an e a y n c orp ora te a e c on d f n dn gby

t h e emprc a c rt c t a te may c re a te a c on front a t on org o t ow arn o t

n t h e h op e of mak ngp o t v e g an bu t n ord ert o av od t h e o e t h at

are f ore e e n un e t h eyd oSO24E x pe c te d u t t y t he ore of w ar are

omet me ummarze d a a e rt ng t h at t a t e w f gh t on yf t h e e x

p e ct e d g an are g rea t ert h an th e e xp e ct ed c o t e t h at t h e t a t e w n ot

f gh t f t t h n k t h e re u t w b e w ore t han t h e t a tu q u oB u t t h

an e rrort h e re n ore aon w hy t h e t a t e h ou db e e v e t h at af u t ure

21Forc onv e n en c e w t rea t t he e e mprc a t u d e a t hou gh t h e met h od an d re u t

w e re e n t re y c omp at b e w t h e ac h o th e rw h c h n ot th e c a e

2 2 F or a d c u o n o f th e e co nd w av e e e Je rv f n 0 9 79 2 9 3 0 t h o u d a o b e

n o te d t h at w h e t h e e w rt n g are g e n eray c a e d a t h e ory t h e yd on ot me et t rc t c rt era

f ort h d e gn at on

23SeeRchardNedLebowBetweenPeaceandWarBa tmore MDTheJohn Hopkn

U n v er t yP re 98 Robe rt Jerv Rc h ardNe dL eb ow an dJan c e Gro S t e n Py c h o

ogy andD e te rre n ce B at more MD Th e Joh n H opk n U n v e rt yP re 985L e b ow and

S t e n f n 3 amu n g t he Ne hru c a e d raw n f romRc h ardNedL e bow an dNev e M ax

w e n d a C h na W a r N ew Y or k P a nt he on 9 7 0 a a t y z ed u t r at o n a nd a m g n or

n g t he c omp ex t e an d ambgu t e

24F ora marargumen t e e Ph p Te t o c Te t n gD e te rre nc e Th eory S ome Con ce p

t u a a n d Me th od o og c a u e J ou rn a o f S oc a u e 4 3 N o 4 9 87 8 5- 92



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w t hou t aw arw b e k e t he t a tu q u of t e x pe c t t h e f ut u re t ob e

b e tt er t c an ra t on ay e e k to av od aw art h at t t h n k w oudy e d g

n f c an t b en e f t f t e x pe c t t h e t a t u q u o t od e te rorat e b ady t c an

ra t ona yun de rtak e aw arwh oe e x p ec t ed u t t y mu ch e t h an ze ro

TheJapanee dec ontoattackPearHarborandtheGermandec on

t og o t ow arn 94may e x e mpf y t h t ype a t h ough w e h ou dn o t e

ag an t hat t h a ume t h e a ct o rp rob ab t y an du t t y e t mat e w h c h

nretropectmayappeartobe bzarre

Butathoughratonatyneednotbe nquet onherethe tandardfor

mu at on of d e t erren ce are Wh e n th e o e t h at t h e t a t e f ear t em

f romt h e ad ve rary t h re a t an dh o t t y n d c at n g t h e p re e n ce of a p

rap ro c e f u rt h ert h rea t f romt he a t te rw rare y re d uc e t he c onf c t

Th u w h e an SEU mode c ou db e app rop ra t e t h e u e of e c on dw ave

deterrenceprecrpton woudnot nfactmaxmze ut ty25

Ne ve rth e e on e p art c u arapp c a t on of t h e d e a t hat t a t e c ou d ra -

tona yfghtbecaue theyfearedadeteroratonofthe tatuquo fthey

ddn o t t and a a c e nt ra n gh t of e c on dw ave t h eort Th ey t re e d

t h e p rob e mof c r n t ab t y e t h e dan ge rt h at on e d e w ou d

au nc h af r t t rk e n o t b ec au e t w a aggre v e orb e e v e d th at w ar

w ap re f erab e t op ea c e b u t b ec au e t w a u re t hat t he o t h er d e w a

abouttoattackandbe evedthat trkngf rt wa betterthantr kng

econd26Secondwavetheor t coudhavebroadenedth n ghtntoa

genera argumenta tatedefendngthetatu quomut rea urethe

c h ae n ge rt h at t w n g t ore p ec t t he a t t e rv t a n t ere t e n u re

t h at t h e adv e raryd o e n o t e e t a ag gre v e an dmn mze t h e e cu rt y

d e mma e mn mze t h e e x te n t tow h c h t he a c t on t h e t a t e t ak e t o

n cre a e t e c urt yd e cre a e t h e adv e rary e cu rt y 27That e c ondw av e

t he ort d dn o t d oo a t trb u tab e e t o t he rg e n era t h e ore of n

ternatona pot c thantotherbe efthattheSovetUnonundertood

thatAmercanm taryadvantagewoudonybeu edtoenhancedeter

rencenotto undermneSovet ecurty

25For this reason, Lebow and Stein argue that the resulting theory would not be one of

deterrence Rational Deterrence Theory I Think, Therefore I Deter, World Politics 4I

J a nua ry 9 8 9 2 1 2- 1 4A s o s e eG eo rg e a nd Smokefn 1 4 8 - 8 2

26 The classic statements are Albert Wohlstetter, The Delicate Balance of Terror, Foreign

Affairs 37 (January I959), 2II-34, and Thomas Schelling, The Reciprocal Fear of Surprise

Attack, in Schelling, Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge Harvard University Press, I 960), chap

9 Many previous wars developed because decision makers believed that the c hoice was be-

tween war now and war later Warner Schilling et al, American Arms and a Changing Eu-

rope (New York: Columbia University Press, I973), I72-74. For an argument that the main

danger of such dynamics today is largely psychological, see Robert Jervis, Implications of the

Nucear Revouton thaca, NY Corne Unversty Press, forthcomng , chap 5

27 Indeed these points follow from a full SEU model see John Mueller, Retreatfrom Dooms-

day The Obsoescence of Maor War New York Basc Books forthcomng



11/26

192WORLDPOLTCS

An ot he rf n dn g t rou b e ome n ot on yf ort h e e c on dw ave b u t ao

formanyotherdeterrencetheore eventhoughratonaty agannot

a t u e Th e n ee d f oran dp o b t e of d e te rre nc e n p e rph era are a

dependn partoncommtment beng eena nterdependentThat

theUntedState cancredbythreatentore thot emove anywhere

becauetorefranfromdong owoud undermnecommtment

throughoutthegobeBut tappearthatother donotpercevecommt

menta otghty nkedandthattheoutcome ofconfrontatonare de

t e rmn e d t o ag rea t ere x t en t by e ac h d e n t rn c n t ere t n t h e u e a t

t ake Th e re u t c an b e mod e e dn t e rmof SEU bu t many of t h e e xt en

on of d e t erren ce t h eory t oow -e ve c onf c t w h ave t ob e modf e d

Toreturntotheframeworkeaborated ntheopenngparagraph

econdwavetheort wereamot excu veyworredthatdeterrence

w ou d f a b e cau e a t a tu q u op ow er ac ke d t he t ren g th k orre ov e

to re t o r e v en more k e y t h at an e x pan on t w ou dn c orre c t y b e

e v e th at th e t a t u q u op owe rw aw e ak n an y of t h e e w ay p art c u

ary t he a t n ame dTh eort w e re n o t c on ce rne d t hat p ra of h o t t y

andthreatperceptoncouddeveopoutoftheunntendedconequence

of e a ch d e b e hav orAg an t he re aon q u t e t ragh tf orw ard S ov e t

expanon mwa takenforgranted

t ofcoure perfecty egtmatefora theoryofdeterrencetotake

h o t t y a agv e n An y t h eoryh at o t art omew h ere an dp o c yb ae d

on e c on dw av e t he orymayb e w e d e gn e d t od ea w t h c e rt an k n d

of e xp an on t t a te B u t RDT h ave n od agn o t c t he y ayn o t h n g

abouthowtatemenaretodetermneother ntenton28 andcae tud

e re ve a t h at f t h e o t he r d e e e k man y e c urt y d e te rre nc e c an fa

throughthedeveopmentofconfct pra 29Secondwavetheorymay

t he n p rovd e ag oodd e c rp t on of Ame rcan p o c y n t h e C odWarbu t

am e adngp c t u re of t h e c on e q u en ce of t h p o c y Th e Un t e d S ta t e

mayhaveuedthreata theecondwaverecommend butthereut

mayhavebeentoncreaeconfct andmakethenatone ecure

Theprobemof boththeorzng andpocy makngwoudbemuch

ea er ftherewereonyone ourceofdeterrencefa ureBut ncethe

t a te c an no t e a y d e t ermn e t he ad v erary n t en t on an dh ow t w

28F oraf u rth e rd c u on e e G eorge an d Smok e f n 77-78G e orge an d Smok e f n

14 8 82Je rv f n 10 1979 Th e u e of t h e t erm d agn o t c n G e org e an d Smok e f n

14 8ore fe rt o t h e u t t y of d et erren c e th eoryn p on t n g ou t t he t u at on n w h c h d et e r

rence keytobe chaengedbutthetheorycannotte tatemenwhethertheyarefacng

u c h a t u at on

29Th a ow a t h e man p on t of e are rc rt c of t h e e c on dw av e e e f ore x amp e

C h are Og oodAn At e rnat v e t oWarorS u rren d er U rban aU n v er t y of n o P re

962



12/26


reacttowhatthe tatedoe tmut guardagantbothappeaementand

provocatonDec onmaker thenconfrontmoreptfa andhavea

wderrangeofchoce than truenthe tuatoncontempatedbythe

e c on dw ave An RD Tc ou dman t an a t re on t hre at an d f orc e b u t

c amt o ap py on yw h e n a t a tu q u o t a t e f a ce dw t h ara t ona e x

p an on t t a te Th w oudp re erv e muc h of t he t h eoryp ow e rand

parmon y at t he c o t of mt n g t d oman A t e rn at ve y RD Tc ou db e

broadenedtotakeaccountofa wderrangeofprobem andmoretoo

of tatecraftt coudthencovermorecae butwoudhavetobemuch

morecompexTh compextydoe notmeanthatratonaand/orde

d u ct v e t h eore are mpo b e b u t th e a tt e mp t t o e nc omp a b o th p ra

anddeterrencedynamc doemeanthatthereu tngtheorycannether

be extremeypar monou norconcernedpredomnantywththreat

forceandcoercon30

Th e f n dng p re e nt e d of arc a n t o q ue t on mport an t p art of

econdwavedeterrencetheoryand howthattherearemutp epattern

bu t th e y e ave un tou ch ed t h e b ac c am of SEU Aft e rab re f d c u on

of ame th odoog c ap rob e mw e w d c u t h e ca e t u dy argume nt

thatare ncon tentwthbothtandarddeterrenceandratona mode

BASN CASESELECTON

AchenandSnda havetre edthatdeterrencefa urecannotbecom

p e t e y und e rt ood by t u dyn gon yn t an c e n w h c h th e y o cc u rap on t

thatwh efrequentynotedn theabtractha oftenbeengnored3 So

c a c e n t t g e ne ray b e gn an d oft e n en d t he rre e arc h by oc at n g

exampe nwhchtheoutcomeofnteretha occurredandthenookng

b ack n t me f orf act o rt h at e e mt ob e n k ed t o t h e out c ome Th pro

c ed u re t e nd t o c h ara ct erze t u d e of a an ce armrac e t h e pro cu re

me nt of w e ap on c v un re t an d rev ou t on a w e a of w ar an dd e

30Thu Georgeha tre edtheneedtodeveopdfferentatedtheorebecaue cae areof

d f f ere nt t ype G e org e and Smoke f n A e x and e rLG e org e Ph pF are y an dA e x

an de rD a n e d U S S ov et S e cu rt yC oop era t on Ne w Y ork Oxf ordU n v er t yP re

988 c h ap an d 29G e org e and Smoke f n 4 170-73A p ara e argume n t froman

o th e rf e d t hat n o n g e t h eory c apab e of e x p an n gn t e rn at ona t rad e n a c om

mod t e an d at a t me A E Agra aTh e Th eory of n t ern at on aTrad e L ond on C room

H e m 983 85a o e e Robe rt Gpn Th e P o t c aE c on omyof n t e rn at on aRe a t on

P rn ce t on P rn c e ton U n v er t yP re 987 74-80 F orf urt he rd c u on of w hy t h e t he

orywoudno ongerbeoneof deterrence eeLebowandStenfn 25

3A c h en an d Sn d a f n 6 60-63a o e e L eb ow and S t e n f n 3 7-8G e org e an d

S mo ke f n 5 6 - 7 J e rv L eb ow a n d S te n f n 2 3 3 J e r v f n 2 3 68 -7 0 A r d L ev t e

nt e g e nc e and S t rat e g c S urp re Ne w York C oumb aU n v er t yP re 987 23-24 n

Th e WarTrapNe w H av e n Y ae U n v er t yP re 98 B ruc e B ue n od e Me qu t a argue

th at o c a c e n ce h ou d e e k on yn e ce ary c on d t on n w h c h c a e t h e p rob e mdoe n o t

ar e Th e mt at on of t h ap pro ac h are obv ou h owe v er



13/26

194WORLDPOLTCS

terrencefaure tcannetherye d nformatononthereat ve

frequencyofthee event norprovethatthevarabe thatarea ocated

w t h t h e ou t come are more th an n ec e ary c on d t on Th at t he e v ar

ab e mayb e p re e n t n man y c ae n w h c h t he ou tc ome df f ere nt

n d ee d n p rn c p e t h e y c ou db e un v e ra

Ca e e e c t on n t u d e of d e t erren c e fau re p re e nt ome p e c a

p rob e m Ev en c omparn g c a e n w h c h c re e d t ow art o t h o e n

w h c h t he yddn o t w n ot cov era t he re e v an t u e w h e t h e a t t er

are e xamp e of u c ce n w h at P a t rck M organ c a mmed at e d et e r

ren c e n w h c h t he c h ae n g e re t edw t h out v o e n c e t h ey a o are

faure of generadeterrence n whchdeterrenceddnotpreventthe

c r f romar n gn t h e f r t p ac e 32E ve n f w e c an d e te rmne t h e f ac t or

thatdcr mnatebetweenthefaureand ucce ofmmedatedeter

rence wecannotextendtheargumenttogeneradeterrenceThevery

factthatacae ofmmedatedeterrencear e meanthatthedefender

thoughthehada defen bepo tonandthecha engerthoughtthathe

coudgeth waybyforceorcoerconThedetermnantofwhether

theeconfctng expectatoncanbe reconc edwthoutvo enceare

keytobe verydfferentfromthedetermnantof whethertheydeveop

a t a 3 3

Wemaywanttoexamnecae of uccefu genera deterrence nor

d e rto e t mate t u c ce ra te an dd et e rmn e w h at d t n guh e u c ce e

fromfaure Becaue wewanttoudgethe nfuenceofthreatby ak ng

whattheoutcomewoudhavebeenfc rcumtance orpo cyhadbeen

dfferent weneedetherhypothetcaorrea compar on Lebowand

S t e n mak e ag ood t art a t u n g t h e f ormer34bu t t he e n te rpr e ob

v ouy e x tre me ydf f c u t S t udyn grea c a e of u c c e n o t mu c h e a

e r t n o t c e arw h at t he re e v an t amp e h ou db e F ore xamp e f w e

e x amn e on y c a e n w h c h one t a te h ad amarke dd e re t o c h ae n g e

an ot h er w e e xc u d e c a e n w h c h d et e rre nc e u pp re e d t h d e re

e t h e r t ob v ouh ow of te n c a e h ou db e c ount e d f c oun tryA

de t erred f romatt a ck n gB f oro y e ar h ou d t h b e one u c ce O u c

c e e on e fore a ch y e ar or3650on e f ore ac h d ay ? F romt h t f oow

thatweprobabycoud notcacuatea ucce rate

B u t a t e a t f orome pu rp o e t h e e c omput a t on are n ot n e ce ary

We may care e ab ou t h ow of t en d e te rre n ce f a t h an h ow t f a Th e

32M org an D e te rre n ce A C onc e pt u aAn ay B ev e ryH C AS ag e 977 3 43

33Pau HuthandBruceRu ett DeterrenceFa ureandCr Ecaat on nternatona

S t ud e Qu art ery 32 M arc h 988 a t 30a c k n ow e dge t h bu t ome of t he ran ay t he n

p roc e ed a t h ou gh t h w e re n o t th e c a e a t h e t u de n t n mygrad u at e e mn arp on t ed ou t

tome

34L e b ow and S t e n f n 3 33-36



14/26


r ea o n t wo fo d F r t a t ro ng f or m o f RD T f a f e d f t he re a r e an y

ca e n w h c h t he c ond t on p o t e d a n ec e ary an d u ff c e n t f ord e

terrencearemetandyetdeterrencefa Granted onecanarguethat

e v en t h e mot rg orou o c a c e n ce t h eory on yprobab t c b u t t

n o t c e art h at u c h an ap pro ac h c omp at b e w t h t he b a c a umpt on

ofSEU35Seconda concernwthhowcr e andwar haveoccurredn the

p at an dmgh t o cc u rn t h e f ut u re e ad u t o ak w h y t ate me n un

d e rt ake e e mngy e f d e f ea t n g act on k e c ha e n gngp ow erf u c re d

b e c ommt me nt ort ak ngp o t on t h at c ann o t b e u t an e d F ort h

pu rp o e f req u en c e are rre e van t a t hou gh c omp aron are t re

qured

Th e f o cu on mme d ate d e te rre nc e b o th u c ce e a w e a f a

u re t rou b e ome h ow ev e rb e cau e t c an e ad u t om p e rh ap

themot mportantfeatureofthea tquartercenturythepauctyof u

perpowercr e Whetherth ha beencauedbythepotencyofgenera

deterrence the maturng ofetherorboth de ora decne nthecon

f c t of n t ere t b e t we en t h em df f c u t t od e te rmne B u t t h e e q u e t on

cannotevenbeakedwhenwe ookonyat howconfct arereo ved

ratherthanathowoftentheyoccurWehavenumbere bookandar

t c e on t he C u b an m e c r an d amot n on e on t h e f ac t t hat t h w a

t he a t u ch c on fr on ta t on P o c y a w e a c ho a r h p h a u ff er ed a

e te andthegenera pubc havenothadtoconder whetherther tan

d ardb e e f ab ou t t he S ov e t U n on an d t he C odWar h ou db e c a e d

n t o q ue t on by t h e a c k of S ov et c h ae n ge t mgh t a ob e n o t ed t h at

thecommonfauretonotcenoneventdog thatdonotbarkcan

on yb e e xp an e dbypy c hoog c ab a e u c h at h o e e x amn edb e ow

ra t on ad e c on make rw ou d e e t he r gn f c anc e

GCENERALZATONSFROMCASESTUDES

Whathavewe earnedfromthecae tude?To begnwth thereap

p e art ob e re a mt t oou rab t y t og e n era ze d oyn c rac e are man y

andpowerfu m aroutcomecanbereachedbymanydfferentpath

an d app are n t y mar n t a c ond t on d on o t aw ay y e d t h e ame re

u t 36P art y f ort h re aon andp art yb ec au e of t he mt at on of t h e

e x t n gre e arc h w h at w e h ave n ow more a t t h an at gh t th e oryB u t

t notwthouttructureandcoherenceManyofthegenerazaton

p rodu ce d by t he c a e t u d e are n ke d t h e n f e rre d p ro c e e c an g en

35SeeGeorgeandSmokefn 14 179

3S e e G eorge an d Smok e f n 4 173-74andG e org e F are y an dD a n f n 30 5 11-12



15/26

196WORLDPOLTCS

c rat e ad d t ona p rop o t on an d th e argumen t ap py t o aw d e rang e of

probem naddton todeterrenceanddeterrencefaure Forexampe

theuboptma dec onmakngthatproducedtheChaengerd ater

an d th e h oo t n gd ow n of an ran an ar n e rby th e Ame rc an warh p

V n c en ne an t c p at e d by th e e f n dn g

B e cau e mot of t h e e g e n era z a t on are f am aran dp ac e mt e d

w on y k et c h th e momt t n gu pp ort n g e vd en c e 37Th e y fa n t o

t h re e c a te g ore Th e f rt d e a w t h c ogn t v e mt at on on n f ormat on

p ro ce n g t h e e c on dw t h wh at c an b e c a e d mot v at ed b a e an d

t h e th rd t e mf romt he f ac t th at p o c y of te n made an d amot aw ay

mpementednotby ndvdua butbyorganzaton

F rt b e cau e t h e w ord v e ry c omp ex an dp e op e n format on p ro

c e n g ca pa b t e a re h a r p y m t e d w e m u t a e mp o y a n um be r of

hortcutto ratonaty ncudngmanythatgobeyondthoe org

n ay p e c f ed byH e rbe rt Smon 38Th e b e e f p e op e h od an d t he n f e r

encetheydrawdonotchangequcky nrepon eto nformatonthey

re ce v e p e op e t a t e me n c e nt t an dn dvdu a n t h e re v eryday

ve tendtoactn accordancewth theore theyareadyub crbeto

ratherthantofrehdata

A e con d c ogn t v e b a t h at b e e f t e nd t ob e t ron gyn f u e n ce d by

h t orc a an aog e t ore c en t mport ant c a e t hat t h e pe ron orh c oun

tryha experencedfr thand Amercanpocy ntheCod Warand

econdwave deterrencetheorycannotbe undertood apartfrom the

experenceofH ter

Thrd theroeof accdentandconfuontend tobeunderetmated

Ot he rt a t e an d a an ce t e nd t ob e e e n amu c h more c en t ra ze d t han

theyactuay are

Fourth ratherthan ntegratngmanyvaue wthoutreaz ngt peo

p e of t en d e c d e on th e b a of a n g e mportan t v aue dme n on

F f t h t h e w ay t a te v e w ot he r c apab t e an dn t en t on of te n

trongynfuencedbythewaytheyvewtherownro eand tuaton

Whattheythnkof themeve areferencepontbywh chtheyudge

muc h e e n t h e w ord

A e c on d e t of g e n era z a t on d e a w t h mot vat ed b a e e d e v a-

t on f romw h at u u a y c on d e red ra t ona t y t hat t e mn ot f rom

37Supportngevdenceanddeta edargument canbefoundnG ennSnyderandPau

D e n gC on f c t Amon gNat on P rn c et on P rn ce t on U n v e rt yP re 977G e orge an d

S mo ke f n M or ga n f n 3 2 L eb ow f n 2 3 J er v f n 2 J er v L eb ow a n d S te n f n

23 A e x an d erL G e org e D av dH a an dW amSmon Th e Lmt of C o erc v e D p omacy

B o t on L t t e B row n 971 rvn gJan an dL eon M ann D e c on M at ng Ne w York F ree

P re 977an dRaph Wh t e F e arf uWarror Ne w York F ree P re 984

38Smon Mod e of M an Ne w York W e y 957



16/26


pu re y c ogn t v e m t at on bu t f rompy c hoog c ap re u re an dn e ed

S ome of t h e e ov erap t h e c ogn t v e b a e an dp roduc e p ara e o rre n

forcngeffect

F rt an dn k e d t o t he a t c ogn t v e b a t a te me n k e t o t h nk w e

ofthercountre Theythereforebe evethatother w undertandthat

theyarefo owngapproved tandard ofnternatonaconductandare

notthreatenngother egtmate nteret

Second andreatedtothefourthcogntveb a peopetendtomn

mze p e rce v e d v au e t rad e off Ap e ron w hob e e v e t h at ap o c y

b e tt e rt han t h e a t ern at v e on one v au e dme n on k e y t ob e e v e t hat

t b e tt e ron o th e rmport an t a t h ou gh og c a y un re at ed dme n on

a w e n t h w ayp eop e d e ve op v e w of t he e n v ron men t t hat av od

thepychoogca panofbe evngthatforexampe theymutendanger

arge n umbe rof n n oc e nt v e n ord ert od e f en d t he rn at on n te re t

Thrd andreatedtotheprevou pont when tatemenfeethatthe

aternatveareb eaktheyare keytoexaggeratethechancethatthe

c h o e n po c yw u c ce e d F u rt h ermore t h e yw n ot g at he rt h e n f or

mat on orp e rformt he an ay e t h at c ou dn d c a t e t hat t h p o c y k e y

tofa

Fou rt h at h ou gh t h e e v de n ce on t h p on t gh t t e em t h at t h e

pre ureto m percevetheenvronmentncomfortngwayare greatet

w he n t he p e ron f ac ng e v ere o e an d/orw he n h e t ron gyn f u

e n ce d by av au e t h at h e w ou d rath e rn ot re c ogn ze e g h p o t c a

take

Th e t h rd e t of g e n era z a t on b rn g ou t t he ro e of d ome t c p o t c

andorganzatonabehavor theatterofpartcuar mportanceforhow

p o c e are mp e men t ed

F rt d ome t c p o t c an d c oa t on bu dn gp rovd e ome of t h e ex

p an at on f orw hy t ate b e come e xp an on t 39Th e t a t e n o t au n f e d

ac to ran dp o c e t h at t rea t t a on e mayb e e t han op t ma y e f fe c t ve 40

Secondpo ce areoftenmpemented nway thatareverydfferent

fromthoeorderedandexpectedbythedec onmaker Statemenoften

f a t o re a z e t h an d t hu are gn orant or w ore y et m n f ormed

ab ou t w hat h ab e e n d on e n t h e n ame of t h e rt a t e S omet me t h c an

39Th e b e t t re a tme nt Jack Sn yd e rMyth of Empre D ome t c P o t c an d S tra te g c d e o

ogy t h ac aNY C orn e U n v er t yP re f ort h comn g

40Re ce n t t u d e of t h e orgn an d t ermn at on of t h e WordWar c onf c t b e t we en

Amerc a an dJapan h ow n f ac n at n gd et a t h e op p ort un t e t h at w e re m e dw he n one

c oun try f ae d t op e rce v e t h e nat ure of t he c o a t on a t rugg e w t h n t ad ve rary e e M

c hae B arn hart Jap an P re p are f orTot aWar t hac aNY C orn e U n v e rt yP re 987 an d

L e on Sg a F gh t ng t o aF n h Th e P o t c of WarTermn at on n t h e Un t e d S ta t e an dJapan

9 45 t ha ca N Y C or ne U n ve r t y P re 9 88



17/26

198WORLDPOLTCS

t ren g th e n de t erren c e n o t h e rc a e t w d e fe a t t G e ne ray t h e e

me ch an m n cre a e b o th t h e e xt e nt t ow h c h e a ch d e e e t he o t h era

h o t e an d t he c h an c e th at e ve n t w e c ap e con tro4

Whatareomeof themp caton oftheef ndng fordeterrence?

F rt n amot n on t e ra c t on d o t wo ad v erare u n de rt and e a c h

o t he r g o a f e ar me an e n db e e f an dp erc ep t on Empat hy df

f c u t a nd u u a y a ck n g 42 A a r e u t t at e o me t me f a t o d ep o y

threat thatwoudbeneftthemandon other probaby morenumerou

occaon empoythreatthatprovokeratherthandeterState oftenun

deretmatethedeperatonthattheradverare feeand ncorrectybe

evethattheother donot eethema athreatThu thenteractonof

t h e tw o d e p o c e c an n c re a e c onf c t u n n ec e ar y

S e con d t h e adv e raryw m orm pe rc e v e man y of t he t a te g

n a Th e f n e t un n gof p o c e an d t he u b t e b arg an n g t ac t c t h at

w ou db e c a e d f orn a w ord of c e arc ommun c at on can no t w ork n

ou rw ordp o c e b a e d on t he a umpt on t h at t h ey c an w b e n e f fe c

tve fnotcounterproductve43

Thrd commtment byoneactorthatareobectveycear andcred

b e a me au re d by t he p e rce p t on of d n t ere t e d th rdp art e mayn ot

bepercevedbyanotherFurthermore ntheeca e thetatemakngthe

c ommt men t ort hre at n o t k e y t og rap t he o t he r p e rc e pt on b e

evng nteadthattheothercorrectyundertandthe tuatonThe

tate thereforekey topredctand nterprettheother behavor

wrongy thudefeatngdeterrenceand ncrea ngconfct

Fourth actor tendtooveretmatethepotencyofthreat andunder

e t mat e t he u t t y of rew ard an d rea u ran c e

Ffththreat andconc atongenerayneedtobe combnedbutther

op t mamx t u re an d t mn g e x tre me ydf f c u t n p art b ec au e t d e

p e nd on t he ad v erary g o a an dp erc ep t on w h c h are h ard fort h e

tatetod cern44

Sxththe ucce ofmmedatedeterrencecanweakengenera deter

4S e e f ore xamp e GrahamA on E e n ce of D e c on B o t on L t t e B row n 971

R c h ardNe dL eb ow Nu c e arC r M anag eme nt t h ac aNY C orn e U n v er t yP re 987

ScottSagan NucearAert andCr Management nternatona Securty9 Sprng 985

9 9- 3 9 J e rv f n 2 6 c ha p 3

42Forconfct ngargument aboutthereatve frequencyoftheerror ofmrror magng

an d ac k of e mp ath y e e Wat erL aq ue u rAWord of S e c re t Ne w York B ac B ook 985

90-94272-77Wh t e f n 37 60-67Rob e rt Je rv B ey ondWh at th e F act W B e ar

nternatonaJourna ofnte genceandCounternte gence Sprng 986 46-48

43F oran c e e x amp e e e Waac e Th e Wh en Gove rnme nt C o d e B e rke e yU n v e rt y

o f C a f o rn a P r e 9 80

4 4S ee G eo rg e H a a nd S m o n f n 3 7 S ny de r a nd D e n g f n 3 7 J er v f n 0 9 79

Jan c e S te n D et e rre nc e andRe a u ran ce n Ph pTe t o ck e t a e d B e hav orS o c e t y

an dNuc e arWarV o 2 Ne w York OxfordU n ve rt yP re f ort hc omng



18/26


re nc e n t h e f u tu re byn c re an g t h e o e r g re v an c e c on vn c n g t t h at

t he t a te ag rave me nac e n c re an g t n c en t v e t o t and f rm n t h e

nextconfrontaton oreveneadng ttof ghtn ordertochangea tua-

tonwhchha becomentoerabe or expectedtodeterorate45Succe

f u c o e rc on may e nc ourage t h e o th e r d e t ob u du p t arm t p o

b e f ore xamp e t h at U Sn u c e art hre at n t h e Taw an t ra t c r e of

1954-1955and1958mayhavecontrbutedtoChna dec ontodeveop

nucearweapon andthatt moremutedthreatto nda n1971may

have m aryaffectedthatcountry dec ontoproceedwthanucear

tet

WHATCANNOTBEEXPLANEDBYARATONALTHEORY

Th e ce n traq u e t on h e re w h et h ert h e e mprc a f n dn g c an b e e x

panedby anRDT abet onethathanotyetbeendeveopedTheanwer

may t u rn n p art on w h et h erS EU t ake t he a c t or b e e f a gv e n a t

d o e g o a an du t t e o rak f t h ey are re aonab e 46F ore xamp e c an

wecontructanSEUaccountofaperon whoeatthreepoundof brocco

ad ayn t h e be e f t h at t h w ard of f dragon ? Wh at f t h e U Sp o c y of

ntervenngn countre ketheDomncanRepubc andVetnam

make e n e on t h e p re me t h at t h e re v ou t on t h ere w e re S ov e t n

predandthatther ucce woudundermneUS nfuencearoundthe

w ordbu t w e t h n k th at t he e e x p ec t at on are n o t on yf ae b u t c e ary

contradctedbytheevdence?CanweappySEU fthepo cyfa year

afteryearbecauethe upportngbe ef arecon tentyncorrect? tw

bedffcut toverfythetheoryfwe arerequredtoudgewhetherthe

b e e f are reaon ab e b u t f w e acc e pt a b e e f h owe v erou t rag eou w e

w havetretchedthetheoryattheexpene ofcommonene andut ty

Furthermore nordertoarguethatthebehavormade ene nterm of

SEUwemayhavetognorepeope account oftherownreaon and

g o a F ore xamp e f U S p o c yh ad t h e ef fe c t of con t en t yn c re an g

rad c a man d an t U S f e e n gn t h e t h rdw ordw ou dw e u dg e t a

ra t ona f t a te me n t od u t hat t h e rn t en t on w ae x act y t h e oppo t e?

P u tt n g a d e t he ra t ona t y of t he u b t anc e of t he b e e f t c an b e

c ame d t h at t h e c ogn t v e b a e are c on t e nt w t h rat ona b e hav or

propery undertood47 nformatonand nformatonproce ngarecot

45F orap ara e argumen t e e G eorge an d Smok e f n 14 182

4 6 Fo r d c u o n o f t h u e e e Jo n E t e r n t r od uc t on n E t er e d R at o na C h o c e

New Y ork Ne w York U n ve rt yP re 986 4-5 3-6 B arryONe G ame Th eory and

t h e St u dy of t h e D et e rre nc e of War n S t ern f n L e bow an d S te n f n 25 26-8

47Thefam aranaogytoathete putforwardbyM tonFredmanandLeonardSavage

Th e Ut t yAnay of C hoc e n v ovn gRk Jou rna of P o t c a E c on omy56 Augu t



19/26

200WORLDPOLTCS

p e op e maxmze u t t yw h e n th t ake n n t o c on d e ra t on 48Thu SEU

notd turbedbythefactthatpeopemantan ncorrectbeef thatup

port f an gp o c e w e p at t h e p on t a t wh c h t h eyh av e u f f c e nt n

formatonthatwoudrevea th faureto anyonenotcommttedtothoe

b e e f a t t h e ou t e t A f u c on d e ra t on of e ac h b t of n e w n f ormat on

an d th e c on tan t rec on d e ra t on of mag e an db e e f w ou db e mpo

by c o t y A t h ou gh e c ondw av e t he ory d t u rb e dbyf ore xamp e

t he c a e n w h c h an ob e ct v e y c re d b e t hre at gn ore d b ec au e t he p e r

ceverdd notexpectt anSEUaccountcon derngnformatonproce

n g c o t w ou dn ot b e

Th argumen t h a ome v aue b u t th e t re t ch n g of t h e norma me an

n g of u b ec t ve u t t y m a x m za t on n ot t o n y p ro b em F r t t a

umethatpeope omehow topgatherngandproce ngnformaton

u t a t t h e p on t a t w h c h th e c o t ou tw e gh t he e x pe c te d g an t n o t

c e arh ow t h p on t c ou db e e t mate dn d e ed t ryn g t od oow ou d

t e f b e v e ry c o t y S e c ond t h argumen t mpe t h at c ogn t ve b a e

h ou d ope rat e mu ch e w h en t h e d ec on v e ry mport an t b u t t h

h an o t b e en d e mon t rat ed 49n d e e d t h ab e e n t u d e of c ruc a c h o ce

thathavereveaedtheroeof theeba e NetherJapann1941norNeh

ru n d an 962g at h ere d ag rea t d ea of n f ormat on on h ow t he rad

v erare w ou db e k e y t ore ac t Sm ary at h ough mu ch of B rt an

pocy durngthe1930 retedonbe ef abouttheeffcacyof trategc

bombardment theupportnganaye werefewandweak50Thrd t

farfromcearthatth approachcancapturea thehortcuttorat on

a tythatoperate etaoneantcpateone notyetd coveredForexam

pe th expanatonprobabycannotaccountforthemethod bywhch

peope eeaca ea fttng ntoageneracategoryandthedfferent

948an dA ch en an d Sn d a f n 6 64d o e n o t rea yh e p S t a t e men ac t n a re amof mu ch

greatercompexty deaw thmanyfewer ntance andonyrarey receveunambguou

f ee d bac k F orad c u on of t he more n t ere t n g u e of w he t he rn f ormat on p roc e n g

b a e an d f a a c e re ay c an b e c on d e red d e v a t on f romrat on at y e e LJon ath an

Cohen CanHumanrratonaty beExpermentay Demontrated? Behavora andBran

S c e nc e 4 S e pt e mb e r98 37-3 an d t he c omme n t bd 3370 F oran SEU mod e t h at

take nformatonproce ngcot ntoaccount eePauAnderonandT mothyMcKeown

Ch angn gAprat on Lmt e dA t te n t on an dWar WordP o t c 40Oc t ob e r987 29

48W amRk e randP e t erOrd e h ook An n t roduc t on t oP o t v e P o t c aTh e oryEn g e

w oodC f f NJPre nt c e H a 973An t hon yD ow n An E c on omc The ory of D e moc rac y

N ew Y or k H ar pe r & R ow 9 57 A o e e Je rv f n 2 c ha p 4

49For omereevantfndng eeDavdSear andJonathanFreedman SeectveExpo

u re t on f ormat on AC rt c aRe v e w P u b c Opn on Qu art e ry 3 Summe r967 94-213

W amMc Gure S e e ct v e E x pou re A Summn gU p n Rob ert Ab e on e t a e d Th e

ore of C ogn t v e C on t e nc yC h c ag oRandM c Na y 968 797-800 Ph pTe t o ck A c

countab tyTheNegectedSoca ContextofJudgmentandChoce nBarryM Stawand

L L C ummn g e d Re e arc h n Org an zat on aB e hav orV o 7 Gree n w ch C TJA Pre

985

5?RobertJerv DeterrenceandPercepton nternatonaSecurty7 Wnter982/83 4-

7



20/26


w e ght t h at p e op e gv e t od f fe ren t k n d of n f ormat on Norc an t a c

countforthefactthatpeopedenythevad tyofmanyofthe aw of

probab ty51

Of c oure on e re py t h at n one of t h re e van t w e w an t amod e

t h at w matc h mot of t h e t a t e b e h av or n o t rec on t ru c t t he d e c on

mak n gpro ce B u t t h ard t o e e h ow SEU w n f ac t u c ce e dn d on g

on gh t of th e n f u e nc e w e h av e t e dNot on yd ow e ob e rv e t a t e

menfa ngtopayattentontofactor necearyforratona cacuaton

butn manyn tance thereaonngproce e theyreportwhchtrack

n c e yw t h ab ora to ry re u t n w h c h p eop e a c tu aymak e c h o ce

nvoveerrorof nferenceandcacuaton Ony fthee wereomehow

t o c anc e ou t c ou d t he re u t f t w t h SEU n d ee d on e mu t w on de r

whether ntrcateandcounterntutveSEUargument canexpan tate

me n b e h av or D e c on mak e rw on y ad opt c ou re of a c t on t h at

theyexpecttobeeffectvef the keyadvantage canonybe d covered

ordemontratedwth thead ofcompexmathematc twoud eemun

keythat tatemenwoud eetheadvantageof thebehavor Further

more n man y cae t h e ot h er d e p e rc e pt on are c ru c a Th u f w e

c ou d h ow th at c ont rary t ow hat amot un v e ra y b e e v e d a c ert an

t u at on ort a ct c h ou dgv e t he t a te ab arg an n g adv ant age t h w

ac tu ay b e t rue on y f t h e o th e r d e re a z e t an d o n f act more w

ngtomakeconce on whenfacedwththat tuatonortactc

Theargumentthatpeope behavorcanbe expanedbya umng

thattheyacta thoughtheywereratonamaycope omewhatbetterw th

motvatedba e Whentheeoperate theexternaenvronment d

tortedto ervepychoogca orpo tca functon 52Butthefactthatthe

p o c y ow e t t e t o ad n t ere t e d app rec a t on of t he e x te rna e nv ron

mentdoenotmeanthatt cannotbeexpanedby SEUTo returntoan

exampementonedear erthefactthatNehruavodedthepychcpa n

thatwoudhavereutedfromtherecogntonthathewa puttngh po

t c af ort un e ah e ad of th e g ood of t h e c oun try n t ere t n gf orapy

c h oog t b u t t rre e van t t o t he argume nt t h at w e c an e xp an n d a

p o c y a t h ou gh n d aw e re ac t n g t omaxmze Ne h ru p e rona u t t y

Furthermore fa peronha nochocebuttoundertakeacoure ofac

t on t h e mot v at e d d t ort on mayn ot n f u en c e he rb e hav ora t a 53

5S e e f ore x amp e t h e work ummarze dn D an e Kahn e man P au S ov c an dAmo

Tv erk y e d Judgmen t und e rU nc e rt an tyH e u rt c an dB ae C ambrdg e C ambrdg e Un

v e rt yP re 982 an dTve rk y an dKah n eman Rat ona C ho c e an d t he F ramngof D e

c o n n J ou rn a o f Bu n e f n 5 S 25 7 8

52Th e c a c a c c ou n t MB re w t erSmt h Je rome B rune ran dRob ert Wh t e Opn on

andP e ron at yNe w Y ork W e y 956

53F orf urt he rd c u on e e Je rv f n 2 374-78an dArt h urS t e n Wh e n Mpe rc ep t on

M att er WordP o t c 34Juy 982 505-26



21/26

202WORLDPOLTCS

Th e f ac t t hat h e b adyun d ere t mat ed t h e r k orc o t of h erp o c y

doe notmeanthat hewoudhavebehaveddfferentyhadheranay

beenaccurateForexampe n1941 motvatedb a mayhaveedJapa-

needec onmakerto overetmatethechancethattheUntedState

w a w n g to w a ge a nd o e a m t ed w ar b ut f t h e r u t t e e ft

themnochoceotherthantof ghtth errormayhaveonyratona zed

notnfuencedtherbehavor

Evenwhenmotvatedba e producemorecompexand eemngy r

ra t ona b e hav oran EU t he orymgh t t h od n an od e r e n e t h an

S c he n g t he re mayb e ra t ona t yn rrat on at y 54We uu a y ay t h at

ap eron w h oc on t en t y ac t n e f d e f ea t n gw ay prob abyd rv en

byu b c on c ou e g odynamc B u t th n o t od f f e ren t f romayn g

thatthecot of acrfcng certangoa aremorethancompenatedfor

bytheavodanceofthepan thatwoudcomefromdrectyfacngthe

u n con c ou mpu e c oup e dw t h t h e g an on o t h erv au e dme n on

e g t h e me ry c au e d by t he p e ron ac t on c an g rat f yd ee py f e t

need tobedebaed

Th coudevenbethecae whentheperon woudhavebeenbetter

offhadhefo owedanaternatvepocy thathecoudhaved covered

t h t he av a ab e d a t aTh a t ron g erc h ae n g e t o S EU b e cau e t h e

p o c y c h o e n d o e n o t maxmze e v e n th e h dd en u t t e To c ont n u e

wththeNehruexampea umethatfhe hadundertoodthe tuaton

h e c ou dh av e d ev e op ed ap o c y t hat h e w ou dh av e e e n a k e y t op ro

du ce ab e t te rou tc ome n t h c a e t h e mot vat ed b a w ou dh av e e d t o

u b op t mab e h av orh adh v on n o t be e n c oud e dbyfe aran dn e ed

hecoudhavemanagedthetradeoffbetweennatonaandperona n

t e re t b et t er An dye t an S EU ac c oun t t p o b e on c e we c on d e rt h e

pa nNehruwoudhave ufferedhadheconfrontedthevaueconfctand

h ow n ambt on We mgh t mary d e aw t h b e hav ort hat f o ow

f romp e ron a c a o rn at ona d e o og e t h at p rovd e au t f c a t on f or

au e f u p o c ybyd ev e opn g ad t ort e d v e w of th e e xt e rn ae n v ron

me n t Th e re u t t op u rc h ae mme d ate n dvdu a an d o c a h armony

a t t he c o t of a a t erd a t e rn o t on yf ort h e c oun try a aw h oe b u t a o

f ort he c ont ron g n dvdu a an dgrou pTh e b e e f an dp o c e of

W hemneGermanyprovdeanexampethecountryandrung e te

werehedtogetherattheexpeneofa rea tcappra a ofthethreatand

op portun t e t h at o t he rof f e re d n c a e k e t h t h e bargan n o t

t ruc k c on c ouy an dn re trop e ct may appe art ob e ab ad one b u t t

canbeca medtobecompatbew thSEU

54S c he n gf n 26 36-43



22/26


Toputth anotherway themmedategratfcatonprovdedbya

motvatedba coudoutweghtheantcpatedongrunco tthatwoud

b e n c u rre dw he n t he p o c y e v e nt u ay f a P e op e mayh ave h gh d

c oun t ra te e w h at w h app e n n t h e f ut u re c ount f are t h an m

medateconequence andpartoftherut tycanbepeaceofmnd and

ad e re d e f mage F ore x amp e t h e fa c t t hat d e te rre nc e f a b e cau e

t h e t a te man av od e e n g t hat h p o c y p rov ok ngrat he rt han re

tranng theadverary canbencorporatedntoSEUoncewecon derthe

u t t y t o t he e ade ran d t he c ount ry a a w h oe of t he b e e f t h at t n o t

ame nac e and c ou dn o t b e e e n a u c h

u p e c t th at man yre ad e rw f n d t h argumen t a t o rt u ou an dun

a t f a c to ry a d o t t h e eq u v ae nt of ayn g t hat t he p e ron w hopu t

of f e e n g ad o c torf orf eart h at h e rumpw b e d agno e d a c anc e r

ra t ona on ce w e c on d e rt he mmed at e c o t of g e t t n gb adn e w An y

t h eory t hat h at o t ak e a cc oun t of u t t e k e t he e w b e f arremove d

fromanyRDTthatha beenadvanced Furthermoreth kndoftheory

c ou dy e dd e d uc t on on y f p e op e are c on t e nt n t h e rd c oun t rat e

andn theubectve cot ofextendedearche andknowedgeofther

ow n ut t e B u t ev e n f t h e e re q u re men t are me t t h e b eh av or t

mgh t n ot b e ra t ona by ome d e f n t on f t h e h ort run g an pu r

chaedattheprce ofgreaty mtng orharmngtheactor futurepro

pect 55

A t e a t a d f f c u t f ormot n o t on of S EU are t h e c a e n w h c h p o c y

ra t ona ze d n aw ay t h at c h an g e a t erp e rce p t on an du t t e F or

e xamp e a ume th at d ome t c p o t c e ad a t a te man t o ad op t a h ard

ne po cyandthathethenreduce thetradeoffbetweendomet cand

f ore gn p o c yv au e by c omng t ob e e v e t h at t t h e a t te rt h at re q u re

t h p o c yB u t f t h e d ome t c e n v ronme nt c h ang e t h e po c ymay c on

tnuebecaue t upportedbythenewycreatedperceptonofthefor

egnenvronment56Whatut te arethenbengmaxmzed?

BEHAVORCONS STENT?

ThemnmumrequrementofSEU thatbehavorandthu then

ferredpreferencebe con tentButweknowthatanaton keany

c o e c t ve may ac t n c on t e nt y at h ou gh e a ch p e ron n t f uy c on

tentthu maknganSEUexpanatonoftheformerbutnottheatter

5 5E t e r fn 4 6 O 1 2

56 For related arguments, see Jon Elster, Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality

(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, i983), chaps. 3 and 4, and Deborah Larson, Origins

of Contanment Pr nceton Prnceton Unversty Press 985



23/26

204WORLDPOLTCS

mpo b e F e w fore gn p o c y c a e t u d e h av e e xamn ed t h qu e t on

rg orou y an dmore a t te n t on h a b e en p ad t o t n t h e are aof p o t c a

e c on omyt h an n e c urt y n t h e a t te rarea t g e ne ray a umed t h at

thecompeng natureoftheexterna envronmentandthemportanceof

thenatona nteret ubmergedvergentdometc nteret andcoat on

dyn amc t h at c ou dp roduc e n c on t e nt p o c e B u t ce rtan y t h n o t

aw ay t h e c a e

nterna barganngcanundermnethea umptonthatthetateact

a a r a t on a u n t ar y a ct or n e v e ra w a y F r t o me c oa t o n c an b e

bu t an dmant an ed on yby n c u dn gp o c y e e men t w h c h pu n op

p o t e d re c t on F ore xamp e p t n t h e B rt h c abn e t b ef ore Word

War meantthata moracommtmentwa ncurredto tandbyFrance

ntheeventofanattackbyGermanybutthatGermanycoudnotbe o

nformedThere utwa aparodyofdeterrenceprecrpton France

fetembodenedbytheexpectatonofBrt h upport Germanywa em

bodenedbyoveretmat ngthechancethatBrtanwoud remanneu

t ra A ft er t he w ar m a r p t e d Br t a n t o g ve t he W h te R u a n

ut enough upporttoen urethattheBohevk woudbeenragedbut

notenoughtooverthrowthenewregmeGovernment thataredeepy

dvd e d oft e n do t h n gby t w o Th at t h ey are k e y t oman tan

d ome t c un t ybymak n gp are d d ec on at h ou gh t he re u t n g ac t on

w contradctorundercuteachother57

S e con dd ag re eme nt c an b e od e e p t hat n od e c on p o b e e

p e c ayw h e n c o e t o c on e n u re qu re dTh u t h e Jap ane e g ov ern

mentremaneddeadockedoverthequetonofwhethertoaccedeto

Germany dere to trengthentheAnt ComnternPactdepte thecon

derabecot oftheyearongprocrat natonandthefactthatJapan

wa unabetorepondto thechange ntheexterna envronmentdurng

thatperod58

Th rd n c on t e nc e ov ert me app eara f rt on e f ac t on and t h en

anothercome topowerEvenf broadnatonagoa remanbecaue

theyare etbytheexterna envronmentd agreementonhowto reach

themaredeepandfrequentThu whe muchofAmercanforegnpo

cydurngthecod warcanbecharacterzeda contanmentthe up

portngbehavorvared a dfferentadmn tratoncameto powerwth

d f fe ren t d e a an dd f f e re n t prort e f ort he u e of re ou rc e 59 t t h en

57Warn e rS ch n g The P o t c of Nat on aD e f en e F c a 950 n Warne rS c h n g

PauHammondandG ennSnyderStrategyPo tc andDefene Budget NewYorkCo

u mb a U nv er t y P re 9 62 2 66 T h e f n 43

58Oh at aTokuh ro Th e An t C omn t ern P act 1935-1939 n Jame M ore y e d D e te r

rentDpomacyJapan Germany andtheUSSR1935-1940NewYorkCoumba Unverty

P re 9 76 4 7-

59Se e John G add S t ra t eg e of C on t anme nt Ne w Y ork OxfordU n ve rt yP re 982



24/26


w t h u t f c a t on t hat a e an d adv e rare a k e c omp an t h at th e y are

contantyforcedtoadut tounpredctabechange nAmercanpo ce

e n e ra t ed by h f t n gd ome t c p o t c Of c oure on e can mpy t rea t

eachadmn tratona ad fferentactorw thdfferentpreference One

can m aryaccommodatethechange durnganadmn tratonpro

du ce d byh f t n g a gn me nt B u t th e re u t n g t h eore w n ot b e ve ry

par monou andpowerfu

F ourt h w h e t h e n atu re of t he d e c on mak ngp ro ce make t h ard

todemontratethentrant vtyofpreference thefactthatpo cyoften

ar e f romt h e n t era ct on of e v e raf a c t on make c y c c amaort e

q u te k e y t p o b e t ha t th e n t a b t y o f r ec en t U S f or e gn p o c y

c an be e x p an e dn p art by t he dv on of e t e opn on mak er n t o cod

w ar n t er na t on a t p o t c o d w ar n t er na t on a t a nd e m o a t on

t 6o Sm ary opn on ov ert h e w ar n Korea an dV e t namw an ot ar

raye d on a mp e h awk d ov e c on t n uumw h c h w oud at e a t h av e

yededa coherentpocy butratherd vded ntothreegroup wthdf

ferentorderof preferenceforthea ternatve ofeca atng contnunga

mtedwar andwthdrawng6

Fn ay n t h e f ormat on an d e v e n more t h e mp e men t at on of p o

cyd vergentbureaucratc nteret andperpectveoftenremanunn

t e gra te d an d th e re u t n g n at ona p o c y n c on t e nt n Juy1914

t h e c v an an dm t ary e ade r n G e rman y e n t c on f c t n gn t ruc t on

t oV e n na n duc n g t h e e ade rof Au t ra -H ung ary t o ak Wh oru e

nBern? 62 nothercae dfferenteement ofthegovernmentwork

eparateyonwhattheythnkareunreatedprobem buttheoutcome

havecontradctorympact onforegngovernment Forexampewhen

omepartof theUS governmentweretryngtod couragethrdword

t a te f romc on tro n g t he f u n u c earf u e c y c e an d t h u g an n gre ady

a cc e t of e mat era t h at c ou db e u e d f orb omb t he ag e nc y t hat

w ad e an gw t h t h e c apa c t y and af et y of U Sp u t on um e p ara t on

pant cutoffforegncontractforreproce ngnucearfue therebyn

advertenty howngotherthattheUntedStatecoud notbecounted

ontomeettherneed Nethergroupwaengagedna truggewththe

o t he rf orc on t ro of p o c y n t e ad ea c h u t c arre d ou t t re p on b t e

60Oe H o t an dJame Roe n auAme rc an L e ad e rh pn WordAff ar V e t naman d t he

B re akd own of C on e n u B o t on A e n & U n w n 984

6 -An dre M odg an H aw k an dD ov e o a t on m an dP o t c aD t ru t Ame rc an

P o t c a S c e nc e Re v ew 66S e p t emb er1972 960-78F orra t ona c h o ce d c u on of h ow

n t t u t on c an p rovde ou t on t o c y c c a maort e e e Ke nn et h Sh ep e an dB arryWe n

g at P o t c a S ou t on t oM arke t P rob e m Amerc an P o t c a S c e nc e Re v ew 78M arc h

984 47-34 andKennethShepe andBarryWengat StructurenducedEqu brum

an dL eg at v e C ho c e P ub c C h oc e 37No3 982 503-9

62Japan e e an dU Sp o c e a t t h e en d of WordWar p rovd e e v e ra e x amp e e e S g a

f n 40



25/26

206WORLDPOLTCS

n t ow n ph ere w t h ou t muc h aw are ne of t he t o t ap o c y mpc a -

ton a tuatonwhchendedupundermnngratherthanmaxmz ng

n a t on a u t t e

Furthermore evenfnaton acteda thoughtheywerendvdua

p rob e mmgh t ar e n t h e re v eryday v e p e op e re ve a n con t e nc e

t h at v o a t e SE U T h r ea y n o t u r p r n g n d v du a d e p t e th e r

kn maybenomoreunf edthanargeand egmentedorganzaton Of

c oure o c a f e w ou db e mpo b e f b e hav orw ere rand ombu t w e

houdnotexaggeratethedegreeofcon tencythatpreva Thu SEU

mode of c on ume rb e hav orh ave n o t b ee n t rk n g u c ce e p o t c a

p ref ere nc e an du t t e c han ge f re qu e nt y n w ay t h at d on ot e a y f t

t and ard ra t ona t y 63n e ek n gmu t p e g o a p e op e of t en ac t n c on

tradctoryway Recentpychoogca reearchha a odemontratedthat

peopechooedfferentydependngonhowthequet on framed Con

d e rth e e e x amp e F rt y ou o e a$ 20t c k et w h e w ak n g t o t he

theatera ternatvey a yougotopurchaeyourtcket youfndthatyou

h ave o t a$ 20b f romyou rw ae t Y ou are p rob abymore k e y t ob uy

at c k e t n t h e e c ond c a e t h an rep u rc h ae t n t h e f rt a t h ough t he

c h o ce are f ormay d e nt c a S e con dy ou are abou t tob uy a$ 25c a c u

a t orw h e n youh eart h at t h e ame t e m av a ab e f or$ 20n an o t he r

t ore af e w b oc k aw ay t h e ame t u at on h od t rue e x ce p t th at t he t em

at e e v on e t an d t h e re p ec t v e p rc e are $ 5oo an d $ 495 Y ou are

more k e y t o av e t h e $ 5n t h e f rt t u at on t h an t h e e c ondF n ay

M rRbou ght a c a e of g oodw n e n t h e a t e 5o f orabou t $ 5ab o tt e

Afewyear aterh wnemerchantofferedtobuythew nebackfor$oo

abotte Herefued eventhoughheha neverpad morethan$35fora

botteof wne The eeffect havebeendemontrated nthe aboratory

andtheameproce e probaby operaten foregnpocy makng64For

e x amp e f t a te me n udg e p o c e by c omp arn g t he e x pe c te d re u t

w t h t h e t a t u q u o a t he y e e mt o t h e ymayrun h gh r k rath ert h an

a c c e pt t h e c ert ant y of ao t hat ma c omp are d t o t he rov e rav au e

63S e e Robe rt Jerv Re a m Game Th e ory an dC oop e ra t on WordP o t c 40Apr

988 324-28340-44-

64Thewneexampecome fromRchardThaer TowardaPo tveTheoryofCon

umerChoce Journa ofEconomc BehavorandOrganzaton March980 43 theother

e x amp e are f romAmoTv e rk y andD an e Kah n eman Th e Framn gof De c on an d

h e Py c h oogy of C h oc e S c e nc e 2 Janu ary 98 453-58A o e e D av dGre th e rand

Chare Pott EconomcTheoryofChoceandthePreferenceRevera Phenomenon

AmercanEconomcRevew69 September 979 623-38TverkyandKahnemanfn51

JackKnetch RchardThaer andDane Kahneman ExpermentaTet oftheEndow-

mentEffectandtheCoae Theorem unpub KennethMacCrmmonandDonad

We hrung Tak n gRk Ne w York F ree P re 986F orap p c a t on t of ore gn p o c y e e

e rv f n 26 c h ap 5 an dNan c yKan w h e r C ogn t v e H e ur t c an dAme rc an Se c urt y

Pocy JournaofConf ctReo uton forthcomng



26/26


po t on Th e p o c e w t h en b e n c on t e nt w t h o t he rb e hav oran d

defymanynorma deterrenceprecrpt on Sm ary whenpeope re

ducecogntved onancebycomng to eethechoenaternatvea even

betterthantheyaw twhentheyreachedtherdec on ther aterbe

h av orw b e n f u e nc ed n aw ay t h at mak e t n c on t en t w t h t he r

earer preference Ba ed nformatonproce ngdengratngre ected

coure ofacton andbo terngthee ectedonenotony maketheper

on more c omfortab e w t h h d e c on t h ey a o c h ang e t h e wayh e e e

t h e word an d t he v au e h e p ac e on v arou ou t c ome f SEU t he ore are

tobedeveopedfurthertheyw havetodoa betterob ofcomngto

g rp w t h t h e th e ore t ca an d e mprc a q u e t on of t h e c on t e nc y of

natonabehavor takngntoaccountboththecoa tonnatureofpo tc

andtheoperatonof ndvdua pychoogy

SUMMARY

E ve n f w e p ut o m e o f th e e d f f cu t e a d e n a ny S E U th at w f t

t he e mprc af n dn g t h e u b e c t ve e e me nt w oomarg e Th

tru e n ot on yf orv au e an du t t e b u t ao f ort he c ru c ame an e n d

b e e f p e rc e pt on of t h e o t he r d e an d e t mat e of t h e p rob ab e c on

e q ue n ce of a t e rn at v e po c e Th e e f a ct o rare a e x og e nou an d

t u dyn g t h em n n dvdu ac a e t ryng t o e e h ow an dw hy t h ey f orm

an d o c at n gw h at e ve rp a tt ern e x t are c ruc a t ak P rop o t on on

thee ubectcon ttutemuchoftheworkbengdonebySEUexpana-

t on 65Of c ou re d e du c t ve t h eore c an p ay aro e h e re b u t a e rt on

t h at p e op e a ct a t hou gh t h eyw e re maxmzn gu t t yw n ot he p an

wermanyofthehardqueton

65 See Herbert Smon Human Nature n Pot cs The Da ogue of Psychoogy and Po t-

ca Sc ence Amercan Pot ca Scence Revew 79 June 985 292-303 Jervs fn 63 324-29

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