M. levent kurnaz

transcript

Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies

Simulations of Future Drought Conditions in Central

Asia CORDEX Region 8 by Using RegCM 4.3.5

Levent Kurnaz

Bogazici University

Statistical Downscaling

Dynamical Downscaling

Regional Downscaling

Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies The Issue

Konya Basin (Turkey) 10 km Resolution Evaporation

The Problem

CORDEX and Large Scale Regional

Climate Modelling

Bogazici University

Climate Science Group CORDEX domains

Our CORDEX Regions

Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Temperature

Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Precipitation

Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Res. Prec. Variability

Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies The Domain

Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies 3 Month Standardized Precipitation

Index Summary

HADGEMRF HADGEM45 HADGEM85 MPIRF MPI45 MPI85

extremely wet 0.81% 0.56% 1.40% 1.08% 0.84% 0.56%

very wet 4.05% 4.47% 3.35% 4.86% 5.31% 6.70%

moderately wet

14.05% 13.97% 15.64% 11.62% 13.69% 10.06%

near normal 61.08% 60.61% 60.61% 65.14% 62.01% 62.57%

moderately dry

14.32% 13.97% 12.01% 10.00% 10.89% 14.25%

severely dry 3.78% 5.59% 5.31% 5.14% 6.42% 4.75%

extremely dry 1.89% 0.84% 1.68% 2.16% 0.84% 1.12%

Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies 12 Month Standardized Precipitation

Index Summary

HADGEMRF HADGEM4

5 HADGEM8

5 MPIRF MPI45 MPI85

extremely wet 2.22% 0.86% 2.01% 2.49% 4.58% 1.72%

very wet 3.88% 3.44% 2.29% 4.16% 5.16% 3.72%

moderately wet 11.91% 9.74% 15.19% 8.31% 7.16% 11.75%

near normal 67.59% 69.05% 64.76% 70.36% 68.48% 65.04%

moderately dry 6.65% 8.88% 10.03% 8.59% 9.17% 10.03%

severely dry 4.99% 3.72% 3.44% 2.22% 4.87% 4.58%

extremely dry 2.77% 4.30% 2.29% 3.88% 0.57% 3.15%

Thank you for your attention

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