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8/3/2019 Market Outlook 9th February 2012
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539 1
Market OutlookIndia Research
February 9, 2012
Dealer’s Diary
The domestic markets are expected to open in the red tracking flat to negative
opening in most of the Asian markets. Indian markets posted a volatile tradingsession and closed in green on Wednesday amidst optimism towards the
developments in Greece’s debt restructuring deal.
Globally, however U.S. and European stocks remained choppy and ended flat, as
the markets waited for additional news from Greece. The Greek government,
which is close to announce another round of spending cuts in order to secure
bailout funds is also in negotiations with private creditors on a voluntary
debt reduction.
Indian investors, meanwhile, would keenly watch out for the domestic industrial
production growth (Bloomberg estimate-3%) for the month of December, due to be
released on Friday. Also initial jobless claims data of the U.S. for the previous week
due to be released today will be on radar.Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,699 / 5,363 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 17,818 – 17,928 / 5,402 – 5,435 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
17,699 / 5,363 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
17,588 – 17,469 / 5,330 – 5,292 levels.
Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
SENSEX 17,469 17,588 17,699 17,818 17,928
NIFTY 5,292 5,330 5,363 5,402 5,435
News Analysis TCS establishes JV with Mitsubishi for Japanese market
3QFY2012 Result Reviews – ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Bharat
Forge, Orchid Chemicals, Alembic Pharmaceuticals.
3QFY2012 Result Previews – Tata Steel, Hindalco, Ambuja Cements, ACC,
Apollo Tyres, Anant Raj, FAG Bearings, Dishman Pharmaceuticals.
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (February 07, 2012)
` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD
FII 2,893 2,201 692 6,998 18,079
MFs 476 757 (281) (510) (2,365)
FII Derivatives (February 08, 2012)
` cr Purch Sales Net Open Interest
Index Futures 2,096 1,912 184 15,177
Stock Futures 1,758 2,322 (564) 29,223
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)
JSW Energy 59 10.9 Bharti Airtel 354 (6.6)
IFCI 35 9.6 Jet Air India 331 (3.0)
Manappuram Fin 49 8.4 Hindustan Copp 296 (2.6)Reliance Cap 405 8.2 Pantaloon Retail 188 (2.6)
Bank of India 368 7.9 Voltas 97(2.4)
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex 0.5 84.9 17,707
Nifty 0.6 33.0 5,368MID CAP 1.5 88.3 6,161
SMALL CAP 0.9 60.2 6,812
BSE HC (0.1) (9.3) 6,394
BSE PSU 0.7 54.7 7,619
BANKEX (0.1) (15.4) 11,849
AUTO 0.7 67.4 9,566
METAL 1.6 190.4 12,046
OIL & GAS 1.1 96.2 8,863
BSE IT 1.7 99.1 5,997
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones 0.0 5.8 12,884
NASDAQ 0.4 11.8 2,916
FTSE (0.2) (14.3) 5,876
Nikkei 1.1 98.1 9,016
Hang Seng 1.5 319.3 21,018
Straits Times 0.8 22.6 2,980
Shanghai Com 2.4 55.6 2,348
Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Infosys (0.5) (0.3) $55.7
Wipro (1.6) (0.2) $11.2
ICICI Bank 0.1 0.0 $37.7
HDFC Bank 0.2 0.1 $33.5
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Advances 1,724 933
Declines 1,170 522
Unchanged 105 64
Volumes (` cr)
BSE 3,630
NSE 17,128
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February 9, 2012 2
TCS establishes JV with Mitsubishi for Japanese market
TCS has announced a 60:40 JV with Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp. to serve clients in
the East Asian region. The companies will invest US$5mn to set up a delivery
center in Japan. The JV company will offer a full service suite of IT, BPO and
infrastructure services to Japanese corporations. TCS said that this JV comes
against the backdrop of a strong yen, the globalization of supply chains and a
growing trend toward overseas mergers and acquisitions, all of which act as
catalysts for the increasing globalization of Japanese companies. This has
brought heightened interest in the role of global IT services to link domestic and
overseas operations.
The JV is important for TCS as the company derives only ~1% of its revenue from
Japanese markets and 7% from the Asia Pacific region. This is a good opportunity
for TCS in which it can leverage a partner like Mitsubishi and get an entry into the
world's third largest economy and provide software services there. This will be
positive in the sense that the market share of TCS in Japan will rise as a result of
the partnership with Mitsubishi and the company will also have a presence across
all geographies. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target
price of `1,262.
3QFY2012 - Result Reviews
ONGC
ONGC’s 3QFY2012 profitability declined on account of increased subsidy burden. The company’s top line decreased by 2.5% yoy at ` 18,124cr. ONGC’s
crude oil net realization declined by 30.9% yoy to US$44.8/bbl on account of
higher subsidy burden. The company shared a subsidy burden of ` 12,536cr in
3QFY2012 vs. ` 4,222cr of subsidy shared in 3QFY2011and ` 5,713cr in
2QFY2012. Oil sales volumes decreased by 4.0% yoy to 5.6mn tonnes, while gas
sales volumes decreased by 1.4% yoy to 5.0bcm during 3QFY2012. EBITDA
margin slipped by 1,183bp yoy to 61.0% and EBITDA decreased by 23.6% yoy to
` 11,051cr. The company’s depreciation and amortization expenses increased by
24.5% yoy to ` 4,532cr due to higher dry well write-offs. The company reported
one-time gain of ` 3,142cr related to royalty reimbursed by Cairn India (initially
paid by ONGC for August 2009-September 2011). Excluding this one-time gain,
adjusted net profit decreased by 49.2% yoy to ` 3,599cr. Reported net profit
decreased by 4.8% yoy to ` 6,741cr. For FY2013, ONGC has given oil and gas
production guidance of 28.8mn tonnes (+4.0% yoy) and 27bcm (+7.0% yoy).
The stock is under review currently.
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Airtel (Bharti) reported a mixed performance for 3QFY2012, with revenue
coming in-line with our as well as street expectations, while it disappointed on the
operating and profitability fronts due to higher depreciation and amortizationexpenses. Bharti’s consolidated revenue stood at ` 18,477cr, up 6.9% qoq.
Revenue from mobile services for India came in at ` 10,176cr, up 4.0% qoq on
the back of a 3.2% qoq increase in average revenue per minute (ARPM) to
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February 9, 2012 3
` 0.45/min. However, MOU declined by 1.0% qoq due to slow traffic growth.
Revenue of mobile India business was also impacted because of the slight decline
in VAS share (even when 3G services are launched in all the circles and this was
seasonally a strong quarter for telecom companies), which decreased to 14.3% in3QFY2012 from 14.5% in 2QFY2012. All this led to 2.2% qoq growth in ARPU to
` 187/month. Zain Africa’s revenue stood at ` 5,358cr, up 16.7% qoq, aided by
addition of 2.5mn subscribers, taking its total subscriber base to 50.9mn and a
0.1% qoq increase in ARPM to US¢5.7/min. However, MOU declined by 2.5%
qoq to 125min, which led to a 2.3% qoq fall in ARPU to US$7.1/month.
EBITDA margin of mobile India as well as Africa business increased by 0.18bp
and 0.47bp qoq to 33.8% and 26.7%, respectively. However, EBITDA margin of
all the other business segments declined sharply, which led to a 141bp qoq
decline in Bharti’s consolidated EBITDA margin to 32.2%. PAT came in at
`
1,011cr, down 1.5% qoq, negatively impacted by higher depreciation cost of ` 3,585cr in 3QFY2012 vs. ` 3,184cr in 2QFY2012 and higher tax rates. Net
profit stood at ` 1,011cr, down 1.5% qoq, negatively impacted by higher
depreciation cost of ` 3,585cr in 3QFY2012 vs. ` 3,184cr in 2QFY2012 and
higher tax rate of 35.2% vs. 32.4% in 2QFY2012. We maintain our Neutral
rating on the stock.
Tech Mahindra
Tech Mahindra reported muted set of 3QFY2012 results. Dollar revenue came in
at US$288.7mn, down 2.5% qoq due to a 0.5% qoq decline in volume and
~2.0% qoq negative cross-currency impact. Dollar revenue from BT declined by
7.8% qoq and revenue from non-BT grew by just 0.6% qoq. In rupee terms,
revenue came in at ` 1,445cr, up 8.4% qoq, largely aided by qoq rupee
depreciation. EBITDA margin grew by 90bp qoq (lower than margin expansion
reported by peers) to 16.2% because of depreciating rupee, which absorbed the
negative impact of onsite wage hike given. PAT, including share from Satyam,
came in at ` 276cr. Overall results were weak. The only growth driver for the
company is the non-BT business, as BT is retendering its contracts. The stock is
currently under review.
Bharat Forge
For 3QFY2012, Bharat Forge (BHFC) reported an in-line 21.1% yoy (3.4% qoq)
jump in its standalone revenue to ` 941cr, driven by a 15.3% yoy (1.3% qoq)
jump in domestic revenue and 29.2% yoy (7.6% qoq) jump in exports revenue.
While volume in tonnage terms increased by 15.2% yoy (3.1% qoq) to 55,412MT
on strong export demand, average net realization grew by 6% yoy (1.45% qoq),
led by higher contribution from the non-auto segment. Strong growth in the CV
segment and non-auto segment in the Europe and U.S. benefitted the company’s
exports performance. On the operating front, margin improved by 38bp yoy
(99bp qoq) to 24.7%, owing to better product-mix and decline in raw-material
expenses. Net profit grew by 24.9% yoy (down 3% qoq) to ` 103cr, led by strongoperating performance. However, growth was restricted on account of forex loss
of ` 16.1cr. The stock rating is currently under review.
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February 9, 2012 4
Orchid Chemicals
For 3QFY2012, Orchid Chemicals’ net sales came in at ` 482.1cr, growth of
4.2% yoy. During 3QFY2012, API sales rose to ` 353.3cr as compared to
` 329.7cr in 3QFY2011. While sales were lower than expected, OPM came in at
23.7%, just in-line with our expectation of 24%. However, higher interest expense
during the period led to lower-than-expected net profit. Net profit before
exceptional items declined by almost 22.1% during the period. We maintain our
Buy recommendation; however, the target price is under review.
Alembic Pharmaceuticals
For 3QFY2012, Alembic Pharmaceuticals’ net sales came in at ` 383cr, up 15.0%
yoy. During the quarter, exports rose by 45.4% yoy to ` 165.6cr. While sales werejust in-line with our estimate, OPMs came in at 18%, higher than our expectation
of 14%. Net profit for the quarter came in at ` 442.3cr. We maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with a target price of ` 77.
3QFY2012 - Result Previews
Tata Steel
Tata Steel is slated to report its consolidated 3QFY2012 results. We expect the
company’s net sales to increase by 6.5% yoy to ` 30,992cr, mainly on account of
higher steel prices. However, EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 276bp yoy to 9.0% on account of higher raw-material costs (mainly in its European
operations). Net profit is expected to decrease by 35.1% yoy to ` 729cr.
We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `510.
Hindalco
Hindalco's fully owned subsidiary, Novelis reported loss at the net level for the
seasonally weak 3QFY2012. The company’s net sales decreased by 4.0% yoy to
US$2.5bn due to lower volumes as well as aluminium price. Shipments of
aluminum rolled products decreased by 9.4% yoy to 648kt, primarily due to
destocking in Europe on the back of economic uncertainty and weakness in the
electronics business in Asia. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 10.5% yoy to
US$213mn on account of higher costs and lower volumes. Also, EBITDA/tonne
declined by 1.0% yoy to US$312 during the quarter. Novelis reported net loss of
US$12mn compared to a loss of US$46mn in 3QFY2011. The company is
witnessing recovery in demand during 4QFY2012; it remains on track to achieve
EBITDA of ~US$1bn during FY2012.
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February 9, 2012 5
Hindalco is slated to report its 3QFY2012 results. We expect the company’s
standalone net sales to decrease by 0.1% yoy to ` 5,909cr. EBITDA margin is
expected to contract by 155bp yoy to 10.0% on account of rise in costs of key
inputs (primarily coal). Net profit is expected to increase by 4.3% yoy to `
480cr.We keep our rating and target price under review.
Ambuja Cements
Ambuja Cements is expected to announce its 4QCY2011 results. On the top-line
front, the company is expected to post strong growth of 23.2% yoy to ` 2,204cr.
Strong performance on the top-line front is expected to be driven by higher yoy
realization growth (13.7%) and 8.4% yoy growth in dispatches. OPM is expected
to increase by 104bp yoy to 21.2%. The company’s bottom line is expected to
grow by 10.9% yoy to ` 286cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
ACC
ACC is slated to announce its 4QCY2011 results. The company is expected to
post top-line growth of 18.7% yoy to ` 2,325cr, primarily on account of
improvement in realization by 14.3%yoy. However, cost pressures are expected to
outweigh realization growth and OPM is expected to contract marginally by 6bp
yoy to 17.3%. The company’s bottom line is expected to decline by 14.5% yoy to
` 219cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Apollo Tyres
Apollo Tyres is slated to announce its 3QFY2012 results. On a consolidated
basis, we expect the company to report a strong 22% yoy increase in revenue to
` 2,900cr. Sequentially, EBITDA margin is expected to improve by 50bp to 8.5%,
led by a sequential decline in raw-material prices. However, net profit is estimated
to remain flat on a qoq basis to ` 79cr. The stock rating is under review.
Anant Raj Industries
Anant Raj Industries is expected to announce its 3QFY2012 results. We expect the
company’s net sales to increase by 3.1% yoy to ` 128cr. EBITDA margin is
expected to contract by 316bp yoy to 58.9% on account of higher input costs. Net
profit is expected to decline marginally by 0.5% yoy to ` 50cr. We maintain our
Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of ` 78.
FAG Bearings – 4QCY2011
FAG Bearings is set to announce its 4QCY2011 results. We expect the company
to deliver healthy 17% yoy growth in revenue to ` 307cr. On the operating front,
we expect FAG to post a 100bp yoy contraction in operating profit margin to
18.8%. However, net profit is expected to increase by healthy 14% yoy to ` 39cr.The stock rating is under review.
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February 9, 2012 6
Dishman Pharmaceuticals
For 3QFY2012, we expect, Dishman Pharmaceuticals to post net sales of ` 305cr,
up 5% yoy. OPM is expected to come in at in 17.9% vis-à-vis 23.1% in
3QFY2011. Consequently, net profit is expected to come in at ` 19.8cr, down
30.5% yoy. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target
price of `77.
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers’ Consensus Estimates
HPCL Ltd - (09/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 42,218 33,903 25 37,030 14
EBITDA (340) 780 (144) (2,870) (88)
EBITDA margin (%) (0.8) 2.3 (7.7)Net profit (638) 211 (403) (3,364) (81)
ACC Ltd - Consolidated (09/02/2012)
Adani Enterprise Ltd - Consolidated (09/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 9,632 5,640 71 10,079 (4)
EBITDA 1,407 940 50 1,398 1
EBITDA margin (%) 14.6 16.7 13.9
Net profit 615 474 30 663 (7)
Ambuja Cement Ltd – (09/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 2,277 1,788 27 1,805 26
EBITDA 514 354 45 319 61
EBITDA margin (%) 22.6 19.8 17.7
Net profit 314 258 22 171 83
Hindalco Industries Ltd – (09/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 6,618 5,918 12 6,220 6
EBITDA 706 740 (5) 669 5
EBITDA margin (%) 10.7 12.5 10.8
Net profit 438 460 (5) 503 (13)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 2,481 2,092 19 2,283 9
Net profit 247 249 (1) 159 55
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February 9, 2012 7
Cummins India Ltd – (09/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 1,039 958 8 1,070 (3)
EBITDA 159 180 (12) 176 (10)EBITDA margin (%) 15.3 18.7 16.4
Net profit 125 139 (10) 129 (3)
Tata Steel Ltd – Consolidated (09/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 30,427 28,606 6 32,507 (6)
EBITDA 2,338 3,425 (32) 2,750 (15)
EBITDA margin (%) 7.7 12.0 8.5
Net profit 334 1,003 (67) 212 57
BPCL Ltd – (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 48,753 36,665 33 42,282 15
EBITDA (79) 749 (111) (2,695) (97)
EBITDA margin (%) (0.2) 2.0 (6.4)
Net profit (692) 187 (470) (3,229) (79)
DLF Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 2,536 2,480 2 2,532 0
EBITDA 1,162 1,178 (1) 1,173 (1)
EBITDA margin (%) 45.8 47.5 46.3
Net profit 422 466 (9) 372 13
Essar Oil Ltd – (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 12,638 12,233 3 12,939 (2)
EBITDA 308 797 (61) 544 (43)
EBITDA margin (%) 2.4 6.5 4.2
Net profit (125) 273 (146) (166) (25)
Rcom Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 5,195 5,004 4 4,689 11
EBITDA 1,639 1,668 (2) 1,357 21
EBITDA margin (%) 31.5 33.3 28.9
Net profit 218 480 (55) 252 (14)
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Tata Chemicals Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 3,140 2,860 10 3,540 (11)
EBITDA 551 441 25 674 (18)EBITDA margin (%) 17.5 15.4 19.0
Net profit 190 165 16 275 (31)
Tata Power Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 6,197 4,413 40 6,248 (1)
EBITDA 1,421 1,055 35 1,385 3
EBITDA margin (%) 22.9 23.9 22.2
Net profit 514 442 16 (1,219) (142)
Unitech Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 982 660 49 626 57
EBITDA 171 209 (18) 138 24
EBITDA margin (%) 17.4 31.6 22.0
Net profit 107 111 (4) 92 16
IDFC Ltd – (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net profit 381 321 18 524 (27)
Shriram Transport Company Ltd – (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net profit 320 301 6 299 7
Suzlon Energy Ltd – (11/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 5,232 4,433 18 5,071 3
Net profit (47) (254) (81) 48 (198)
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Economic and Political News
Direct tax mop up to miss ` 5.3 lakh cr budget target
Exports from SEZs grow 17% in April-December 2011
IT, ITeS revenue crosses US$100bn milestone: Nasscom
Indian IT export revenue expected to grow by 11-14% and domestic revenue
by 13-16% for FY2013: Nasscom
January 2012 car sales rise by 7.2%
Corporate News
Bharti seeing benefits from India call price hike
Ceat to set up a 65 MT/day manufacturing facility in Bangladesh
RIL in talks with airlines for fuel supply
Tata Power explores prospects overseas
Thomas Cook starts stake sale in Indian arm Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Results Calendar
09/02/2012 Adani Enterp., Tata Steel, Hindalco, Ambuja Cements, ACC, HPCL, Cummins India, GSPL, Page Industries, Apollo Tyres, FAG Bearings, Dishman Pharma, JK Tyre
10/02/2012DLF, Tata Power Co., BPCL, IDFC, Rcom, Shriram Trans., Essar Oil, Sun TV Network, Reliance Capital, Unitech,Britannia, Aurobindo Pharma
11/02/2012 Suzlon Energy, Consolidated Co
13/02/2012Coal India, St Bk of India, IOC, Sun Pharma, SAIL, Cipla, Reliance Infra., Tata Chemicals, Motherson Sumi,CESC, Punj Lloyd, Amara Raja Batteries
14/02/2012Tata Motors, Nestle, Reliance Power, Jaiprakash Asso., HDIL, Monnet Ispat, Graphite India, Simplex Infra, IVRCL
Infra, Madhucon Proj, Indoco Remedies
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