MDSS Lab Prototype: MDSS Lab Prototype: Program Update and HighlightsProgram Update and Highlights

Bill Mahoney

National Center For Atmospheric Research(NCAR)

MDSS Stakeholder MeetingBoulder, CO20 October 2005Photo by Dave Parsons

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Overview

• Overall System Enhancements• Colorado Routes• System Configuration• New Products• Challenges• Release-4.0

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System Enhancements for Field Demo

• Added Bridge Frost Potential Product– Based on Iowa State University Model (Tina Greenfield)

• Added snow-water ratio algorithm• Added CDOT & E-470 ESS data (via MADIS)• Refined Rules of Practice for E-470 and CDOT• Refined insolation data sources (model blend)

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Colorado Routes

West Denver

South Denver

Vail Pass

300 forecast site

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MDSS Configuration – Colorado

Forecast Models Initialization Data Sources

MM5 AVN

RAMS Eta WRF RUC

Supplemental Weather Models

Ensemble SystemModel InitializationMM5 NAM (Eta)WRF NAM (Eta)

National Weather Service Data

Eta Model AVN MOSGFS Model SYNOPMETARS

DOT Data

RWIS

.

.

.

DataIngest

Forecast Module A

Forecast Module B

Forecast Module C

Forecast Module D

Forecast Module N

ForecastIntegrator

PostProcessor

ForecastProduct

Data Fusion - Road Weather Forecast System

DICastTM

Road Condition & Treatment Module

- Road Temperature Prediction Model- Chemical Concentration Algorithms- Rules of Practice for Anti- and Deicing

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)

MultipleMembers

Plow route specific treatment recommendations

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Supplemental Weather Forecast Model Domain

4 April 2005 - 24 hr forecast valid 3 pm5 April 2005.

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MM5 and WRF Models

Time Lagged Ensemble Used

MM5 – Latest

MM5 – Run from 1 hour previous

MM5 – Run from 2 hours previous

WRF – Latest

WRF – Run from 1 hour previous

WRF – Run from 2 hours previous

FSL Model System Configuration

WRF output 9 November 2004

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• Intense direct solar radiation effects

• Diurnal temperature variations• Strong nocturnal inversions• Shallow cold fronts• Large spread in model

precipitation forecasts• Rain-to-Snow transition

MDSS Colorado Challenges

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Strong Diurnal Temperature Swings

43oFat

7 AM

83oFat

11 AM

Challenge for air and pavement prediction

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Strong Nocturnal Inversions

Surface Temperature = 45oF

Temperature at 1000 ft AGL = 60oF

All models have great difficulty with shallow

layers!

Impacts:

Road frostFogRoad Temperatures

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Early Morning Fog Case14 November 2004

Low clouds and fogobserved

Clear skies in WRF model

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Shallow Upslope Case

Shallow upslope cloudsModel estimation of clouds

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Mountain Wave Clouds

WRF Model Satellite Image

WRF was able to predict some wave

clouds, which is important for Front

Range

Wave Clouds

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Weather models smooth out terrain details resulting in poor forecasts at peaks and valleys.

Resolving Complex Terrain

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Resolving Complex Terrain

Standard NWS models cannot resolve details of the rugged terrain.

T254~30 mile grid resolution

T170~60 mile grid resolution

WRF Terrain~6 mile grid

WRF Model Terrain 12-km Grid

Black Hills

Big HornsTeton

San Juan

Central Rockies

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Halloween Snow Event CaseModel Differences

WRF Model MM5 Model

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MDSS Release-4.0

Expected to be last major Lab MDSSRelease!

Release available mid fall 2005

• Major refinements to Rules Practice• Minor refinements to road temperature model (SNTHERM-RT)• Route by route configuration• Add reasons for recommended treatment• Add additional chemical equations (Caliber, IceBan)• Add blowing snow effect on treatments• Refine black ice (refreeze) treatment logic• Add ability to mix chemical types (user defined treatments)• Refine display products as necessary

Release-4:

Fall 2005