Meat Case Trends - Pork Checkoff RAC Spring 2012.pdfDollar Sales Volume $ - % Chg vs. YA -16.76%...

transcript

Meat Case Trends

Retail Advisory Committee

Raleigh, NC

April 25, 2012

Data provided by the Meat Solutions VMMEAT®

system sourced from FreshLook Marketing scanner data

FreshLook Data:

Represents approximately 68% of the ACV

All of U.S. and 8 standard regions (based on U.S. Census)

Based heavily on chains with no independent grocers (fewer than 11 stores)

Excludes supercenters, club stores, commissaries, and natural food stores

Total Meat Dollar Sales and Volume

Fresh Pork / Ham / Beef / Chicken / All Other

Total Meat – Jan-Dec 2011 Summary Fresh Pork/Ham/Beef/Chicken/All Other

% Change vs. YA 0.50% -6.09% -0.23% -10.56% 0.95% -1.95% 1.94% -7.84% 1.05% -3.66% -1.69% -9.29%

2011 Avg Price $2.86 (▲7.0%) $4.89 (▲11.6%) $2.06 (▲3.0%) $2.85 (▲10.6%) $2.16 (▲4.9%) $1.67 (▲8.4%)

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Grand Total Beef Chicken Fresh Pork Ham All Other

Dollar Sales

Volume

All other includes boar, buffalo, deer, duckling, elk, geese, goat, guinea, lamb, mixed, musk ox, mutton, ostrich, pheasant quail, rabbit, seafood, snake, squab, turkey, unknown and veal Source: FreshLook Marketing, January-December, 2011

Total Meat – Oct 2011-Feb 2012 Summary Fresh Pork/Ham/Beef/Chicken/All Other

% Change vs. YA -1.37% -7.63% -2.01% -12.50% -0.44% -3.48% -0.90% -6.20% -3.81% -8.00% -0.91% -8.44%

2011 Avg Price $2.71 (▲6.8%) $4.97 (▲12.0%) $2.08 (▲3.2%) $2.87 (▲8.8%) $2.14 (▲4.6%) $1.37 (▲8.2%)

10,000

12,000

Grand Total Beef Chicken Fresh Pork Ham All Other

Dollar Sales

Volume

All other includes boar, buffalo, deer, duckling, elk, geese, goat, guinea, lamb, mixed, musk ox, mutton, ostrich, pheasant quail, rabbit, seafood, snake, squab, turkey, unknown and veal Source: FreshLook Marketing, Oct 2011 – Feb 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$4.41 $4.40 $4.23

$2.01 $2.04 $1.98 $2.00 $2.06

$2.66 $2.61 $2.42

Beef Chicken Pork

Total Meat – Jan-Dec Average Retail Price Summary

Fresh Pork/Beef/Chicken

Source: FreshLook Marketing, January-December, 2007-2011

Selected Protein Shares October 2011 – February 2012

Whole Muscle Beef / Beef Grinds / All Other Chicken / Fresh Pork /

Chicken Breast / Ham

All Other Chicken 12%

Fresh Pork 15%

Chicken Breast 13%

Ham 5% Whole Muscle Beef 33%

Beef Grinds 22%

Selected Categories - Share Breakout Based on Dollar Sales (Oct 2011-Feb 2012)

Dollars (Billions) % Change

vs. YA

Share Change Average Price

% Change vs. YA vs YA

Whole Muscle Beef $3.99 -2.0% ▼-0.01 $4.97 +12.0%

Beef Grinds $2.67 +3.5% ▲0.01 $3.39 +14.1% All Other Chicken $1.41 -0.1% 0 $1.61 +3.9%

Fresh Pork $1.78 -0.9% 0 $2.87 +8.8% Chicken Breast $1.49 -0.8% 0 $2.88 +2.1%

Ham $0.60 -3.8% 0 $2.14 +4.6% Source: FreshLook Marketing, Oct 2011 – Feb 2012

Selected Categories - Share Breakout Based on Pound Volume

(Oct 2011-Feb 2012) All Other Chicken

Fresh Pork 16%

Chicken Breast 13% Ham 7%

Whole Muscle Beef 21%

Beef Grinds 20%

Pounds (Billions) % Change

vs. YA Share Change Average

Price % Change

vs. YA vs YA

Whole Muscle Beef 0.80 -12.5% ▼-0.01 $4.97 +12.0%

Beef Grinds 0.79 -9.4% 0.00 $3.39 +14.1% All Other Chicken 0.88 -3.9% ▲0.01 $1.61 +3.9% Fresh Pork 0.62 -8.9% 0.00 $2.87 +8.8% Chicken Breast 0.53 -2.8% ▲0.01 $2.88 +2.1% Ham 0.30 -8.0% 0.00 $2.14 +4.6%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Oct 2011 – Feb 2012

Selected Pork Segments Dollar Sales / Volume / Average Price

October 2011 – February 2012

Data provided by the Meat Solutions VMMEAT® system sourced from FreshLook Marketing scanner data

FreshLook Data:

Represents approximately 68% of the ACV

All of U.S. and 8 standard regions (based on U.S. Census)

Based heavily on chains with no independent grocers (fewer than 11 stores)

Excludes supercenters, club stores, commissaries, and natural food stores

Feature data provided by MarketTrack®

MarketTrack Data:

Represents 267 markets/retailers in the US

Ad feature service covering ALL retail formats

Past data only available through June 2010

Bone In Boneless

Dollar Sales

Volume

Boneless and Bone-In Chops October 2011 – February 2012

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Oct 2011-Feb 2012 vs same time period year prior

$ - % Chg vs. YA +0.22% -3.43%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -8.49% -6.81%

Oct – Feb Avg Price

$2.89 $3.80

▲9.52% ▲3.63%

Boneless and Bone-In Chops Ad Featuring Snapshot, October 2011 – February 2012

% Chg vs. YA October ‘11-February ‘12

Dollar Sales ▲

Volume ▼

A ads ▼8.8%

Bone In Boneless

▲2.2%

Source: Market Track Data, Oct 2011-Feb 2012 vs same time period year prior

Loin Roasts October 2011 – February 2012

$ - % Chg vs. YA -5.16% -7.84% +7.97% +2.50%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -12.30% -17.15% +1.65% -6.82%

Oct - Feb Avg Price $2.35 $5.09 $2.68 $3.26

▲8.15% ▲11.23% ▲6.21% ▲10.01%

$109 $115

23 19 26

Whole/Half Loin Tenderloin Bone-in Roasts Boneless Roasts

Dollar Sales

Volume

Loin Roasts Ad Featuring Snapshot, October 2011 – February 2012

% Chg vs. YA October ‘11-February ‘12

Dollar Sales ▼

Volume ▼

A ads ▼6.54%

Whole/Half Loins Tenderloins Bone In Roasts Boneless Roasts

▼17.53%

▼26.67%

▲53.41%

Shoulder October 2011 – February 2012

$ - % Chg vs. YA +8.89% +14.68% -2.80% +3.48% +36.98%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -8.83% -1.16% -16.43% -5.89% +19.96%

2011 Avg Price $2.03 $1.82 $2.45 $1.51 $1.45

▲19.44% ▲16.03% ▲16.32% ▲9.95% ▲14.19%

$54 $48

Shoulder Roast Picnic Roast Steak Offal Whole

Dollar Sales

Volume

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Oct 2011- Feb 2012 vs same time period year prior

Shoulder Ad Featuring Snapshot, October 2011 – February 2012

% Chg vs. YA October ‘11-February ’12

Dollar Sales ▲

Volume ▼

A ads ▲70.37%

Shoulder Roast Picnic Roast Steak

A ads A ads

▼42.86%

▲17.65%

Ribs October 2012 – February 2012

Back Ribs Country Style Ribs St.Louis Style Spareribs

Dollar Sales

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -16.76% -1.99% +66.82% +1.89%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -21.28% -17.64% +67.06% -4.48%

2011 Avg Price $4.19 $2.56 $3.35 $2.37

▲5.74% ▲19.00% ▼0.14% ▲6.67%

Ribs Ad Featuring Snapshot, October 2011 – February 2012

% Chg vs. YA October

2011-Feb 2012

Dollar Sales ▼

Volume ▼

A ads ▲2.97%

A ads A ads

▼8.28%

▲250.0%

▲46.24%

Opportunity Areas

Data provided by

2012 Annual Meat Conference Presentations

- FMI: Power of Meat

- Perishables Group: Decision Tree Research

- Randy Blach: 2012 Annual Meat Conference Cattle and Beef Situation and Outlook

- Paul Aho: 2012 Annual Meat Conference Poultry Outlook

- Steve Meyers: 2012 Annual Meat Conference Hog Outlook

Total Store Snapshot

Progressive Grocer’s 78th Annual Report of the Grocery

Industry: supermarket managers surveyed

Price Changes February 2012 vs February 2011

Total Food Costs +3.9%

Dairy +7.8%

Cereal/bakery +5.3%

Eggs +4.3%

Fish/Seafood +4.0%

Beverages (non-alcoholic) +3.7%

Fresh Vegetables -7.9%

Fresh Fruit -0.8% USDA: CPI Food Expenditures

What we know about shoppers and their current attitude toward buying

The economic downturn has created very educated, savvy shoppers who do their homework

Shoppers… – Understand how they can save money on groceries

– Can dial up or down money-saving measures very quickly

– Use a combination of pre-trip research and in-store measures

– Increasingly use technology

Conservative spending remains prevalent – Increase in dollar sales offset by high inflation

– Decrease in volume sales across proteins

23 Source: Power of Meat: Annual Meat Conference 2012

24 2/22/2011 210 Analytics, LLC

Direct correlation - household income and grocery trips / spending

Consumers are spending less by buying less

Growing trend: saving by simply cutting back on purchases

– Requires unique response as traditional marketing and merchandising methods may not work

– Shoppers favoring this tactic spend $12 less than average each week

With less dining out, there’s an opportunity to capitalize on shoppers looking to cook more

– Focus on savings and convenience

Change in grocery

spending compared

with last year

Estimated weekly grocery

expenses

$101.74

30% Less

14%: Buy less food

14%: Apply money-

saving measures

2%: Eat out more

55% Same

15% More

13%: Eat out less

2%: No longer emphasize

money-saving

Coupon Usage

Source: Nielsen 02/22/2011

Average Market Basket

The Opportunity to Get Shoppers Back

Special Occasions

Everyday Essentials

Meal Stretching

Impulse/Special Value

Fresh Cross Promotions

Influencing the in-store decision: Value Signage

Very much influence Kind (type/cut) purchased

Quantity purchased

Meat sales promotions on in-store signage 44% 39% Meat coupons 30% 28% Meat advertising in direct mail/newspapers 28% 26% Meat markdowns because of reaching the sell-by date 29% 28% Nutrition information on meat packaging 14% 12% In-store sampling 9% 9% Recipes/cooking instructions on meat packaging 8% 7% Recipes in store (kiosk or cards) 6% 6%

Preparation Suggestions: Just tell ‘em how to cook it!

Great for Grilling

Remember - they’re buying a meal!

This message funded by America’s Pork Checkoff Program.

Further Questions/Discussion?

Thank you!

Appendix

California Pork Segments Chops 2011 Summary

$34 $35

Bone In Boneless

Dollar Sales

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA +0.3% -0.9%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -13.8% -8.2%

2011 Avg Price $3.19 $3.78

▲16.4% ▲7.9%

Great Lakes Pork Segments Chops 2011 Summary

Bone In Bone less

Dollar Sales

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -4.5% +1.6%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -11.3% +0.6%

2011 Avg Price $2.98 $3.55

▲7.6% ▲0.9%

Mid South Pork Segments Chops 2011 Summary

Bone In Bone less

Dollar Sales

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -4.5% +1.6%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -11.3% +0.6%

2011 Avg Price $2.98 $3.55

▲7.6% ▲0.9%

Northeast Pork Segments Chops 2011 Summary

Bone In Bone less

Dollar Sales

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -4.4% +0.7%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -15.9% -2.3%

2011 Avg Price $2.82 $3.82

▲13.6% ▲3.1%

Plains Pork Segments Chops 2011 Summary

$24 $24

Bone In Bone less

Dollar Sales

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -2.2% -13.9%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -10.6% -21.8%

2011 Avg Price $3.38 $3.83

▲9.4% ▲10.1%

South Central Pork Segments Chops 2011 Summary

Bone In Boneless

Dollar Sales

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA +5.3% -3.1%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -2.1% -0.2%

2011 Avg Price $2.60 $3.61

▲7.5% ▼2.9%

Southeast Pork Segments Chops 2011 Summary

Bone In Bone less

Dollar Sales

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA +1.1% -7.5%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -4.2% -10.1%

2011 Avg Price $3.00 $4.06

▲5.5% ▲2.9%

West Pork Segments Chops 2011 Summary

Bone In Boneless

Dollar Sales

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA +3.0% -7.3%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -8.9% -12.7%

2011 Avg Price $2.90 $3.86

▲13.0% ▲6.2%

California Pork Segments Roasts 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA -6.5% +1.6% -4.8% +33.4%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -23.9% -7.2% -19.5% +19.2%

2011 Avg Price $2.67 $5.50 $2.49 $2.96

▲22.9% ▲9.5% ▲18.3% ▲11.9%

Whole/Half Loin Tenderloin Bone-in Boneless

Dollar Sales

Volume

Great Lakes Pork Segments Roasts 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA -2.9% -8.9% +34.9% -8.2%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -11.05% -23.6% +24.4% -14.2%

2011 Avg Price $2.17 $4.85 $3.33 $3.20

▲9.2% ▲19.2% ▲8.5% ▲6.9%

$13 12

Dollar Sales

Volume

Mid South Pork Segments Roasts 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA -18.1% -3.0% +3.0% -10.6%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -27.3% -14.7% +4.7% -22.4%

2011 Avg Price $2.42 $4.90 $3.06 $3.13

▲12.6% ▲13.6% ▲8.2% ▲45.2%

Dollar Sales

Volume

Northeast Pork Segments Roasts 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA -16.2% -12.7% +19.3% +1.5%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -21.1% -18.9% +6.4% -8.4%

2011 Avg Price $2.32 $5.15 $2.56 $3.45

▲6.2% ▲7.7% ▲12.1% ▲10.8%

$25 $26

Dollar Sales

Volume

Plains Pork Segments Roasts 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +20.5% -7.5% -21.4% +9.1%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA +10.5% -18.1% -25.9% -1.1%

2011 Avg Price $2.67 $5.24 $2.93 $3.61

▲9.0% ▲12.9% ▲6.1% ▲10.4%

Dollar Sales

Volume

South Central Pork Segments Roasts 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +1.7% -0.3% -15.6% +49.1%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -4.7% -3.6% -6.5% +41.4%

2011 Avg Price $2.49 $4.75 $2.98 $2.73

▲6.7% ▲3.4% ▼9.7% ▲5.5%

Dollar Sales

Volume

Southeast Pork Segments Roasts 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +7.9% -16.0% -13.2% -0.6%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA +1.7% -25.2% -15.7% -10.3%

2011 Avg Price $2.39 $5.47 $3.12 $3.50

▲6.1% ▲12.2% ▲3.0% ▲10.9%

Dollar Sales

Volume

West Pork Segments Roasts 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +1.9% +6.5% +5.9% +6.7%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA +0.2% -4.1% +31.7% -2.0%

2011 Avg Price $2.27 $5.04 $2.0 $3.14

▲1.6% ▲9.2% ▼-19.6% ▲8.9%

Dollar Sales

Volume

California Pork Segments Shoulder 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +6.5% -15.5% -7.4% +9.2%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -16.2% -22.8% -27.6% -4.0%

2011 Avg Price $1.94 $1.98 $2.54 $1.57

▲27.0% ▲27.0% ▲27.8% ▲13.8%

Butt Roast Picnic Roast Steak Offal

Dollar Sales

Volume

Great Lakes Pork Segments Shoulder 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA -6.6% +22.0% -6.3% +13.7%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -7.4% +7.2% -22.7% +3.8%

2011 Avg Price $2.00 $1.78 $2.40 $1.40

▲15.1% ▲13.8% ▲21.2% ▲9.5%

Dollar Sales

Volume

Mid South Pork Segments Shoulder 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +0.5% +74.8% -8.7% -5.8%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -16.7% +61.8% -25.4% -9.7%

2011 Avg Price $2.00 $1.71 $2.47 $1.67

▲20.7% ▲8.1% ▲22.4% ▲4.3%

Dollar Sales

Volume

Northeast Pork Segments Shoulder 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +18.5% +13.4% +6.2% +6.2%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA +9.7% +1.2% -7.8% -3.9%

2011 Avg Price $2.24 $1.85 $3.04 $1.44

▲8.1% ▲12.0% ▲15.2% ▲10.5%

Dollar Sales

Volume

Plains Pork Segments Shoulder 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +31.6% -13.3% -2.2% +5.0%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA +25.3% -17.8% -11.7% -11.5%

2011 Avg Price $1.85 $2.09 $2.39 $1.46

▲5.03% ▲5.4% ▲10.8% ▲18.7%

Dollar Sales

Volume

South Central Pork Segments Shoulder 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA -0.6% -19.6% -6.7% +4.3%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -23.0% -34.2% -16.7% -5.1%

2011 Avg Price $1.93 $1.70 $2.17 $1.35

▲29.2% ▲22.2% ▲12.0% ▲9.9%

Dollar Sales

Volume

Southeast Pork Segments Shoulder 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +16.3% +2.5% -0.4% -1.1%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA +7.3% -14.1% -7.1% -11.7%

2011 Avg Price $2.20 $1.70 $2.45 $1.81

▲8.3% ▲19.3% ▲7.2% ▲12.0%

Dollar Sales

Volume

West Pork Segments Shoulder 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA +3.3% -14.3% +8.6% +7.5%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -18.2% -26.3% -8.3% -1.5%

2011 Avg Price $12.03 $2.11 $2.66 $1.49

▲26.3% ▲16.3% ▲18.4% ▲9.1%

Dollar Sales

Volume

California Pork Segments Ribs 2011 Summary

$13 $13

Dollar Value

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -13.3% -4.1% +20.7% -6.3%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -25.1% -24.9% +3.7% -27.0%

2011 Avg Price $4.35 $2.56 $3.17 $2.35

▲15.8% ▲27.6% ▲16.4% ▲28.4%

Great Lakes Pork Segments Ribs 2011 Summary

Dollar Value

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -20.9% +0.6% +363.0% -8.6%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -26.1% -20.7% +446.4% -15.8%

2011 Avg Price $4.01 $2.37 $3.40 $2.26

▲6.9% ▲26.8% ▼-15.8% ▲8.6%

Mid South Pork Segments Ribs 2011 Summary

Dollar Value

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -23.0% -5.6% +122.1% +3.6%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -31.0% -21.7% +131.1% -2.4%

2011 Avg Price $4.25 $2.47 $3.49 $2.52

▲11.7% ▲20.6% ▼-3.9% ▲6.2%

Northeast Pork Segments Ribs 2011 Summary

Dollar Value

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -13.2% +3.8% +9.6% -7.2%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -20.4% -6.0% +10.0% -18.2%

2011 Avg Price $4.95 $2.83 $3.83 $2.78

▲9.1% ▲10.4% ▼-0.3% ▲13.4%

Plains Pork Segments Ribs 2011 Summary

Dollar Value

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -9.3% +9.9% +48.1% -3.4%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -15.6% -3.7% +43.6% -12.1%

2011 Avg Price $4.29 $2.85 $4.19 $2.47

▲7.6% ▲14.1% ▲3.1% ▲9.9%

South Central Pork Segments Ribs 2011 Summary

$15 $14

Dollar Value

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -14.1% -5.5% +97.6% +24.1%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -11.7% -20.7% +87.2% +43.9%

2011 Avg Price $3.74 $2.39 $3.35 $1.92

▼-2.7% ▲19.2% ▲5.6% ▼-13.4%

Dollar Value

Volume

Southeast Pork Segments Ribs 2011 Summary

$ - % Chg vs. YA -9.5% +0.7% -9.3% +7.7%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -15.9% -6.0% +7.4% +5.3%

2011 Avg Price $4.50 $2.63 $3.10 $2.52

▲7.6% ▲7.1% ▼-15.5% ▲2.3%

West Pork Segments Ribs 2011 Summary

Dollar Value

Volume

$ - % Chg vs. YA -25.8% -13.1% +414.7% -2.6%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -22.3% -31.1% +375.3% -12.0%

2011 Avg Price $3.90 $2.58 $3.20 $2.54

▼-4.5% ▲26.1% ▲8.3% ▲10.8%

Meat Case Trends - Pork Checkoff RAC Spring 2012.pdfDollar Sales Volume $ - % Chg vs. YA -16.76%...

Documents