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MEN OF VIOLENCE?THE DRIVERS OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE ENGLISH
DEFENCE LEAGUE (EDL)
TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE ASSN MEETING, LONDON, 2013
Matthew Goodwin (co-authors David Cutts and Laurence Janta-Lipinski)
@GoodwinMJ
Four questions.
1. Who sympathises with the EDL, and who joins?
2. What are their core concerns?
3. What are the most important drivers of EDL support?
4. Finally, what was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?
Data and Methods
• Survey based on random sample of 1,666 respondents from @YouGov online panel
• Weighted to profile of eligible UK voters on basis of internet access, age, gender,
social class, region, party ID and newspaper readership
• Any biases introduced by method extremely small and offset by larger sample size
• From these, we will examine 298 agree with EDL values: ‘EDL sympathisers’
• And we will explore 124 who have/would consider: ‘EDL members’
• Survey was undertaken October 21-22 2012 (during period of decline)
• We’ll use these data for two tasks:
1. To examine EDL sympathisers and members, compared to wider population
2. To conduct logistic regression analysis to identify the key predictors of public
support for the EDL
Social Profile – Who are they?Age Breakdown
• Sympathy concentrated most heavily among citizens aged 45 and older
• Membership higher than average among 18-29 year olds
18-29 Yrs 30-44 Yrs 45-59 Yrs 60 Yrs +
16
23
3129
27
22
25 26
20
26 2628
EDL Sympathisers EDL Member Full Sample
Social Profile – Who are they?Class Breakdown
• EDL support is spread relatively evenly across social classes• Sympathy stronger than average among skilled manual workers (C2)• Membership strongest among routine non-manual, semi-/unskilled
workers
Profe
ssio
nal/m
anag
eria
l
Routin
e no
n-m
anua
l
Skille
d m
anua
l
Semi/u
nski
lled
man
ual
25 28 262220
34
192728 29
21 22
EDL Sympathizers EDL MembersFull Sample
Social Profile – Who are they?Working status
• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are unemployed• Some evidence EDL members in more economically insecure
positions
Work full-time Work part-time Unemployed Retired
50
12
3
26
39
21
7
15
48
13
4
23
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
Social Profile – Who are they?Levels of Education
• Both groups of EDL supporters characterised by low education levels• Only limited evidence that members are especially low educated
No
Qualifi
catio
ns
GCSE/Sec
onda
ry le
vel
A-Lev
el
Other
pos
t-16
qual
s
Degre
e/Pos
tgra
duat
e
9
39
1317 18
12
41
20
5
20
8
27
17 17
27
EDL Sympathisers EDL MembersFull Sample
Social Profile – Who are they?Property Status
• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are in social housing• Little evidence to support popular assumptions concerning social
housing
Own/mortgage Local authority rented
Privately rented/other
69
7
18
56
11
21
66
7
21
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
Social Profile – Who are they?Newspaper Readership
• Both groups of EDL supporters tend to rely on tabloid newspapers• Worth noting these criticized for irresponsible coverage of
Islam/migration
No paper Broadsheet Tabloid Other/local paper
18
10
65
7
18
9
64
10
25
14
50
12
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
Party IdentificationWhere is EDL support coming from politically?
• Large majorities of EDL supporters identify with mainstream parties• Both sympathisers and members more likely to identify with centre-
right• No more likely than average to reject political parties
Labour Conservatives Lib Dems UKIP/BNP Other No party
25
43
9
31
19
3234
10
31
19
33
29
12
1 2
20
EDL Sympathisers EDL MembersFull sample
Trust in Institutions% who say they ‘do not trust much’, or ‘at all’
• EDL supports broadly reflective of wider trend: high levels of distrust• But consistently more distrustful (with exception of journalists)• Members significantly more distrustful of police than average
Parli
amen
t
MP'
s
Polit
ical
par
ties
Loca
l cou
ncill
ors
Europ
ean
Uni
on
Polic
e
Jour
nalis
ts
75 7985
69
85
46
7177
85 8675 78
51
706775 79
63
75
32
77
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
Attitudes toward the Political Systemwhich statement comes closest to your view?
• Only small minority of EDL supporters think system is ‘completely broken’
• Sympathisers especially likely to see ‘serious faults within the system’• But generally, these supporters do not appear to be giving up on system
8
65
23
29
58
1796
58
28
2
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
Issue Priorities for EDL SupportersWhat are the most important issues facing country (tick
three)?
• Both groups of EDL supporters foremost concerned about immigration• Economy 2nd most imp. issue, but they are less likely than average to cite this
issue• ‘Muslims in Britain’ distant third concern though members express strong
concern
Immigration & asylum
Economy Muslims in Britain
Europe Crime
74 72
27 2621
91
62
40
25 27
48
79
12 1317
EDL Sympathisers EDL Member Full sample
Attitudes toward Islam, and Muslims% agreeing with statements
• EDL supporters consistently more hostile than average toward Muslims and Islam
• Interestingly, sympathizers consistently more hostile than members • Perceived threats from Muslims and Islam also strong among general
population
7680 80 80 82
6864
7073
62
49
5752
49 51
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
Attitudes toward Immigration, and Minorities% agreeing with statements
• EDL supporters consistently more likely than average to express xenophobic views
• Significantly more likely than average to associate migrants with negative effects
• Further evidence that EDL support not single-issue in nature
46
79
46
67 71 69
46
69
48
70 65 66
30
66
24
44 42 40
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
Attitudes toward Violence, and Intergroup Conflict% agreeing with statements
• All EDL supporters consistently more likely than average to expect group conflicts
• But it is members who are most likely to view violence as justifiable and necessary
• Members three times as likely as sympathisers and public to consider violence72
3729
5
65
45 42
15
46
21 155
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
Attitudes toward Classical Racism Measures% agreeing with statements
• Only a minority of EDL supporters endorse expressions of biological racism• Yet EDL members significantly more likely than sympathisers & full sample to
do so• Points to a more openly racist inner core, surrounded by xenophobic circle of
sympathisers who mostly reject traditional, biological racism
Non-whites are not as British as whites
There is a difference in intelligence of Black and White
23
20
3331
1311
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
Drilling Down:What are the most important drivers of EDL
support?
• ‘Logistic regression analysis’ is a technique that allows us to identify
the most important predictors of EDL sympathy, and membership
• We use as much data as possible, through ‘principal components factor
analysis’ (PCF) to aggregate questions that reflect particular ‘clusters’
of attitudes. There are four of these clusters:
o Classical racism (e.g. non-whites not British like whites)
o Xenophobic hostility (e.g. Immigrants are not honest and
hardworking)
o Political dissatisfaction (e.g. distrust of parliament)
o Pessimism and pro-violence (e.g. violence is inevitable, justified and
necessary)
• We test for the impact of these attitudes (and also social
characteristics) on the likelihood that somebody will sympathise with
the EDL, or consider joining the movement
What are the most important drivers?Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL
sympathy
• Xenophobic hostility to minorities is the strongest predictor of EDL sympathy• Sympathy also prominent among citizens who anticipate group conflicts in the
future and who perceive violence as legitimate/necessary action• Voting for radical/extreme right parties also emerges a significant predictor of
whether someone will sympathise with the EDL• It’s not just apathy: political dissatisfaction the least influential of four clusters
What are the most important drivers?Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL
membership
• Regression analysis points to particular significance of poorly educated, tabloid-reading men between 18-29 years old
• Whereas sympathisers heavily xenophobic, EDL membership predicted far more strongly by classic racism, alongside pessimistic and pro-violent outlook. While xenophobia remains significant, it is less central to explaining membership
• EDL has rallied a younger, harder and more racist core, but is surrounded by a wider circle of xenophobic sympathisers. Both groups are extremely pessimistic about the future of an increasingly diverse Britain
Lastly, What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?
How likely would you be to consider joining the EDL?
Would never join Would consider joining
Consider myself a member
Don't know
77
91
13
84
61
9
Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)
What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?
Thinking about the EDL, which of these comes closest to your view?
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)
3
21
47
29
3
22
52
23
Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)
Thanks.
@GoodwinMJ
Full academic working paper at:
http://nottingham.academia.edu/MatthewGoodwin
Chatham House report based on data at:
http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/189767