Meptec Thermal Symposium - February 2005The Heat is On: Thermal Packagingand Opportunities

Jim WalkerVP Research

Semiconductor Manufacturing

Gartner Dataquest

1

Presentation Outline

Semiconductor ForecastSemiconductor Market ApplicationsApplication Drivers for Thermal Packaging Thermal Packaging MarketMarket OpportunitiesFuture Trends and Directions

2

Forecast TrendsRevenue Growth (%) 2004 2005

-6Mos -3Mos NOW -6Mos -3Mos NOW

World Real GDP 4.3 4.1 +4.2 3.5 3.4 +3.3U.S. Real GDP 4.9 4.2 +4.4 3.8 3.4 +3.2E Equipment* 9.0 10.7 +10.8 8.0 7.3 +7.4

Semiconductor 24.8 27.4 +25.6 13.8 9.3 +5.2

Capital Spending 50.9 53.9 +55.6 13.4 0.4 -12.8Equip. Spending 63.5 66.4 +61.3 15.0 0.6 -15.3WFE Equipment 63.4 72.2 +65.8 13.8 0.9 -17.3P&A Equipment 63.2 48.8 +46.6 2.4 -14.0 -22.3AT Equipment 62.4 51.7 +51.7 34.2 3.3 +3.3

*Production revenue

s

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INDICATOR: Utilization Index 20

04

2005

INDICATOR JUDGEMENT

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1Q01

3Q01

1Q02

3Q02

1Q03

3Q03

1Q04

3Q04

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

Utilization Leading EdgeWFE PAE

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1Q01

3Q01

1Q02

3Q02

1Q03

3Q03

1Q04

3Q04

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

Utilization

Foundry

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1Q01

3Q01

1Q02

3Q02

1Q03

3Q03

1Q04

3Q04

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

Utilization Leading Edge

Leading Edge

SATS

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1Q01

3Q01

1Q02

3Q02

1Q03

3Q03

1Q04

3Q04

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

Utilization Leading Edge

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Semiconductors Market Size:A Pause in 2005 and 2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%RevenueAGR

Semiconductor Market Revenue ($B) and Growth Forecast

Source: Gartner Dataquest Estimates (November 2004)

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Top Semiconductor Applications:Ranked by 2004 Total Available Market

2004 2008 CAGR ‘04 Share ‘08 ShareDesktop PC 30.5 34.7 3.3% 13.7% 11.7%Digital Cellular, 2.5G 17.3 22.0 6.3% 7.8% 7.4%Mobile PC 12.4 20.0 12.7% 5.6% 6.7%Digital Cellular, 3G 12.2 22.9 17.1% 5.5% 7.7%Video Game Devices 5.4 7.3 8.0% 2.4% 2.5%Server, Entry-Level 5.3 6.0 3.1% 2.4% 2.0%Manufacturing Systems 4.9 5.8 4.4% 2.2% 1.9%Flash Cards 4.4 7.3 13.7% 2.0% 2.5%Military/Civil Aerospace 4.4 5.2 4.3% 2.0% 1.7%Optical Disk Drive 4.3 5.6 6.5% 2.0% 1.9%

Others 121.9 160.6 7.1% 54.7% 54.0%

Total 222.9 297.4 7.5% 100.0% 100.0%

Note: All revenue data are in Billions of Dollar

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Top Semiconductor Applications:Ranked by 2004 to 2008 CAGR

2004 2008 CAGR ‘04 Share ‘08 ShareTV, Digital CRT 1.0 4.3 46.2% 0.4% 1.5%TV, LCD 0.7 2.9 41.9% 0.3% 1.0%TV, Plasma 0.3 0.9 35.3% 0.1% 0.3%TV, Rear Projection 1.1 3.3 31.2% 0.5% 1.1%USB Flash Drives 1.2 2.7 21.1% 0.6% 0.9%Storage Network Infrastructure 0.6 1.2 21.0% 0.3% 0.4%Monitor, Flat Panel 2.7 5.3 18.5% 1.2% 1.8%LAN Wireless 1.5 3.0 17.9% 0.7% 1.0%Public Infrastructure - Access 1.3 2.5 17.3% 0.6% 0.8%Digital Cellular, 3G 12.2 22.9 17.1% 5.5% 7.7%

Others 200.3 248.5 5.5% 89.9% 83.5%

Total 222.9 297.4 7.5% 100.0% 100.0%

Note: All revenue data are in Billions of Dollar

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The Industry Will Be Shaped by Five Drivers

Increasing Device Integration

Scale of Manufacturing

High R&D CostsMargin Pressures

Semiconductor Industry Future

Industry Consolidation

Consumer Markets

MPUDRAMASICs with SOCOther MemoryFoundryASICs without SOCDigital Mixed SignalMCUAnalog Mixed SignalSmart PowerAnalog/LinearDiscrete/Power

Device Feature Size Reduction

Production Sweet Spot:

0.180.250.350.500.71.01.52.0 0.13

Feature Size (Micron)

19971990 2004

0.09

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System on Chip

Increasing Device Integration

Improvements in speed, power, functionality and costBut design costs rise:– Increasing system content – Need for ESL design tools– Drives IP market

And mask costs rise:Therefore …– Need more flexibility; amortize costs– Fewer designs/fewer chip types– Fewer vendors

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Packaging Goals

Minimal Use of Space Efficient Electrical Integration of ComponentsMaximize ThermalDissipation

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Need for Speed: Increased Visibility of Thermal Management Issues

Heat in a circuit is inversely proportional to efficiency of circuitInput power not used is lost via heatReliability of circuit is affected by its operating temperature

– Control circuit operating temperature by effective removal of heat.

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Thermal Management

Thermal management is a significant current and future problem due to…– Increasing CPU Power– Increase in “Hot Spot” densities– Shrinking System sizes– Increased Internal and Overall System integration

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Thermal vs. Circuit Technology Trends

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Bipolar vs. CMOS Technology Trends

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Microprocessor Cooling Cost

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Intel Microprocessor Power Trend

Ref: Intel

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Microprocessor Thermal Radiator

REF: Nippon Denso

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60%

1993 2013

Consumer percent of semiconductor market

Consumer/Wireless Markets Will Drive Semiconductor Technology

Previously driven by military and corporate requirements"Tricky" markets for vendors– Unpredictable; fashion-driven– Price-sensitive; continued margin

squeeze

Opportunity to brand chip and architecture High-volume but fragmented applications; trend to low individual value

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Internet Traffic - Network Power Issues

Building power provisioning and heat removal of several hundreds of kW (node level) Cost optimization of energy, air-conditioning, and real estate (node level) Temperature control for reliable operation to prevent failure (shelf level) Heat removal by direct liquid or immersion cooling (shelf and board level) Need for cost effective unconventional cooling solutions (shelf level) Low effective thermal resistance and low pressure, high-conductivity interfaces (board level)

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Internet Traffic - Network Power Issues (cont.)

Thermal integration with electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) for high speed, low voltage circuits (board level) Efficient heat spreading, thermal interface materials (board level) Heat removal from high flux chips (device level) Higher thermal conductive packaging materials, such as spreaders, adhesives, and thermal pastes (device and board level) Precise temperature control and low operating temperature (device level) Need for higher reliability and efficiency of thermo-electric cooling (device level).

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Internet Growth - Network Power Distribution

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Rack / Equipment Room Heat Load Forecast

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Thermal Market Opportunities

Design Software (die, package, board)Power (speed, voltage/current)Materials (substrate, wire, encapsulant)Manufacturing and Test ServicesProcess Equipment and Test

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Design Opportunities

Thermal ModelingDie (power, speed, voltage/current)Package & SubstrateBoard System

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Thermal Management Software Companies

Aavid TechnologiesAnsoftFlomerics (Flotherm)Fluent (Icepak)Harvard Thermal MentorSynopsysTransoftAnsys, Abaqus, Patran

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Materials Opportunities

Encapsulant (mold compound, glob/blob)– $1.5B in 2004

Interconnect (wire/solder/tape) – $1.6 B in 2004

Substrate (ceramic, plastic, metal or composite) Heat sink/spreaderInterfaces ( adhesives, greases, underfill)Coolants (refrigerants, fans)

Ref: semi.org

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Substrates

Total Packaging Substrate Market - $7.5 Billion in 2004

CeramicPlasticMetalCompositeDiamond

Ref: semi.org

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PBGA Performance Improvement27x27mm Body, 10.2mm Die

24.421.9

19.217.6 16.4 15.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

RJA

2562L

2722L

2566L

2726L

2566L

1 oz Cu

2726L

1 oz Cu

REF: STATS-ChipPac

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Suppliers –Thermal Management Materials

Aavid TechnologiesThermacoreAlpha TechnologiesAlcoaLytronKyocera

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Heat Sinks

Fins– Square– Rectangular– Elliptical– Twisted – Pins

– Attachment Methods• Mechanical• Paste Adhesives• Tape

Nanocoolers

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Heat Sink Thermal Resistance

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Height (mm)

Res

ista

nce

(o C/W

at 2

00 lf

m)

38-50mm base Aavid28mm base Aavid35mm base AavidATS 45mm base28mm base Wakefield30mm base Aavid33d for 35mmBGA CC50d for 40mmBGA CC50d for 31mmBGA CC50d for 42mmBGA CC

Thin FinHigh Performance

Extruded/Pin-Fin/Circular

Average Performance

REF: STATS-ChipPac

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Heat Sink Cost vs. Performance

Ref: Intel

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Industry Power Dissipation Forecast

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Chip Heat Flux Forecast

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Summary of Opportunities

Materials– Optimized fluids for liquid cooling– Materials for package construction / thermal spreading with improved

characteristicsDevices– High static pressure, low acoustic noise blowers– Micro heat pipe structures– Two-phase cooling approaches at small scale– MEMS components for liquid / two phase cooling

Design– Footprint liquid cooling systems– Package-scale jet impingement / spray cooling– Advanced, integrated thermal design tools– Frame and rack coolers– Equipment room thermal design– Distributed sensing systems

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As We Race Onward in the “Need for Speed” … Will Cost Be The Killer?

Supplier

Customer