Post on 19-Jan-2016
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NEMOMED8 performance in the Adriatic Sea: the first results
Natalija Dunić, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka ŠepićNatalija Dunić, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia, sepic@izor.hrCroatia, sepic@izor.hr
Samuel SomotSamuel Somot
CNRS-GAME, Toulouse, FranceCNRS-GAME, Toulouse, France
Outline:
About Mediterranean climate modellingAbout NEMOMED8-ARPERA2 runVerification on dataDWF and BiOSConclusions et al.
About Mediterranean climate modelling
Most of them available through MedCordex community, https://www.medcordex.eu.
Several strong institutional groups engaged
About NEMOMED8-ARPERA2 run
period: 1958-2013 1/8° horizontal resolution,
varies approximately from 12 km in the south to 9 km in the north of the domain
43 inhomogeneous vertical z-levels
deformed around Gibraltar, to resolve strait dynamics, Atlantic buffer
ARPERA2 surface forcing: ARPEGE-Climate downscaling of ERA-40
rivers: RivDis database + Ludwig et al. (2009), Black Sea inflow as a river
Verification on data
Seasonal sygnal removed
Model fairly reproduce mean fields
Model overestimate temperature and salinity
Interannual variability strongly underestimated
Palagruža Sill transect
Verification on dataStations D1200, JP
Model underestimates dense water formation in the Adriatic
JP
D1200
Verification on dataHovmoller plotsCentral Palagruža Sill
Fair reproduction of the EMT Longer periodicity of interannual/decadal
thermohaline oscillations
Trends are not reproduced properly
Palagruža Sill - trendsVerification on data
Dense water transportsDWF and BiOS
Decadal variability in dense water formation Correlation with wintertime (NDJF) fluxes EMT-driven advection of low salinity waters in the
Adriatic stopped the DWF
Extreme winter of 2012DWF and BiOS
Although underestimating, extreme DWF dynamics have been reproduced qualitatively
NEMOMED8
ROMS/AladinJaneković et al., JGR, 2014
Decadal patterns obtained by SOM neural networks at the Palagruža Sill
DWF and BiOS
Fair reproduction of termohaline patterns, but not in time (except post-EMT period)
measurementsMihanović et al., JGR, 2015
model
BiOS not reproduced quantitativelyDWF and BiOS
NEMOMED8 BiOS do not follow observed BiOS Circulation is always cyclonic (although
oscillating in strength), the NIG gyre is located more to the southwest
Conclusions et al.
Not much people looked to the reproduction quality of 3D climate models in the Adriatic Sea this study is just a beginning (we hope)
NEMOMED8 river forcing do not include some major rivers, underestimate wintertime cooling and the DWF
NEMOMED8 climate model is qualitatively reproducing Adriatic dynamics, but qualitatively pretty far from reality
BiOS has not been properly modelled More advanced climate model should be applied –
NEMOMED12, with better forcing ALDERA run (Aladin-Climate) and better rivers