NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE

PACIFIC RING OF FIRE

As of April 21, 2012

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

University of North Carolina, USA

RING OF FIRE

1,000 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

MANY HISTORIC EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

SOME OF THE HISTORIC EVENTS ALONG THE

RING OF FIRE

NOTABLE HISTORIC EVENTS

ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

• THE PHILIPPINES: MOUNT PINATUBO

• USA: NORTHRIDGE, CA EARTHQUAKE

• CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND: EARTHQUAKES

• SENDAI, JAPAN: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

• CHILE: VOLCANO PUYEUHE

THE PHILIPPINES: MT. PINATUBO: JUNE 15, 1991

Pinatubo was the second largest eruption of the 20th century and the

largest to impact a densely populated area.

NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE

NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE

4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994M 6.8

4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994M 6.8

NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKENORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE

• 57 DEATHS

• 9,000 INJURIES

• OVER $50 BILLION DAMAGE

• TRANSPORT-ATION SYSTEMS FAILED

CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND: SEPT 2010 & FEB 2011 EARTHQUAKES

TWO EARTHQUAKES SEVERELY CUT NEW

ZEALAND’S 2011 ECONOMIC GROWTH

A DEEP (33 KM) M7.1 AND A SHALLOW (4 KM) M6.3 QUAKE SIX

MONTHS APART COMBINE TO HALF NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMIC

GROWTH

M9.0 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI

IMPACTED JAPAN WITH THE TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING

PACIFIC RIM COUNTRIES4TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER 3

– 40 M TSUNAMI WAVES

2:46 pm MARCH 11, 2011

JAPAN: TSUNAMI FOLLOWING M9.0

EARTHQUAKE

CHILE’S VOLCANO PUYEHUE ERUPTED WITH A MASSIVE ASH CLOUD AND SPECTACULAR LIGHTNING

JUNE 4, 2011

VOLCANO PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD: JUNE 4, 2011

PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD

The ash cloud over the Southern Hemisphere has impacted Argentina and spread as far as South Africa and Australia.

PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD

The ash cloud over the Southern Hemisphere impacted Argentina and spread as far as South Africa and Australia.

NOTABLE HISTORIC EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

• CHILE: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

• COLOMBIA: NEVADA DEL RUIZ

M8.8 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES CENTRAL CHILE:

3:34 am on February 27, 2010

Subduction Zone Quake 500 Times More Energy than the M7.0 Haiti Quake

800+ Deaths; 500+ Injured

Numerous Aftershocks

Tsunami Waves Travel Across Pacific

Estimated Loss: $30 Billion

The Chilean people had to cope with the demands associated with: 1) a mega-quake, 2) a vigorous aftershock sequence with large events, 3) tsunami wave run up, 4) looting of the affluent sector, and 5) recovery after the loss of 15 percent of the GDP.

It was a catastrophic experience, even though Chile has experienced many past earthquakes, has implemented a modern building code, and was well prepared to respond to all aspects of the emergency.

COLOMBIA: NEVADA DEL RUIZ, A 1988 DISASTER

The lahar generated by the eruption of Nevada del Ruiz buried 25,000 people in the

city of Armero as they slept.

SOME OF THE THREATENING EVENTS

ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE

RING OF FIRE

• JAPAN: MOUNT FUJI

• JAPAN: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

• USA: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

• USA: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

• USA: CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

MOUNT FUJI: JAPAN; A THREAT TO TOKYO

• Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on the Hayward fault could be one of the USA's worst natural disasters.

• A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects 5 million people, and damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of UC Berkeley.

• A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage. • The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.

THE GREAT TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

POSSIBLY THE WORLD’S FOREMOST IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

FOR WHICH JAPAN HAS BEEN PREPARING FOR 25 YEARS

REGIONAL MAP

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• The Government of Japan expects its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.”

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning and the time of day it occurs.

• Estimated property damage –- as much as $310 billion.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations

• Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (LOS ANGELES AREA) EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (LOS ANGELES AREA) EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

• The magnitude 7.8 scenario earthquake will cause about 1,800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

CASCADIA SUDUCTION ZONE

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

• The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), which extends from Vancouver Island to Cape Mendiceno, is capable of producing earthquakes of M8 to M9 and a destructive tsunami if the M > 8.0.

A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE

• Long-period waves will dominate the ground shaking of a M9.0 CSZ earthquake.

• Long-period ground shaking is very efficient in exciting tall buildings, long bridges, and long pipelines into vibration.

THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

• MEXICO: POPOCATEPETL

• USA: MOUNT RAINIER

• ECUADOR: SANGAY

• VANUATU: MOUNT YASUR

• GUATEMALA: SANTA MARIA

MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL: APRIL 20

An estimated 5 million people in

the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Morelos would be affected by a major eruption of the

17,778 ft Popocatepetl

MT RAINIER: TACOMA, WA

Tacoma, the capital city is at high risk when Rainier

erupts

SANGAY, ECUADOR

Sangay’s steep-sided volcanic cone, which reaches a height of 17,158 feet (5,230 meters), has

been characterized by:1) a historical eruption in 1628, 2)

more or less continuous eruptions from 1728 until 1916, and 3)

continuous eruptions again from 1934 to the present.

MOUNT YASUR, VANUATU

Mount Yasur, an active volcano on Tanna Island and a part of the

archipelago nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific, has been erupting

nearly continuously for over a century with strombolian- type

eruptionsk, often occurring several times an hour.

SANTA MARIA, GUATEMALA

Santa Maria, a 12,375-foot (3,772-meter) tall stratovolcano, had a

catastrophic eruption in 1902, one of the largest eruptions of the 20th

century, that caused severe damage throughout southwestern

Guatemala

SO---IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT THE ART AND SCIENCE OF MAKING ALL

CIRCUM-PACIFIC COMMUNITIES RESILIENT TO

EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES

MAKING THE RING OF FIRE’S FUTURE BETTER THAN ITS PAST

UNDER-STANDUNDER-STAND

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1988-20121988-2012

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