Post on 07-May-2015
transcript
NOAA/NWS Binghamton Flood Potential
Briefing #5
Issued 2:00 pm July 2nd, 2013
David J. Nicosia
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service
Binghamton, NY
This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only
- This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton and Oneonta in NY State.
- This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre in PA.
Summary
Deep southerly flow of tropical moisture will continue until at
least Thursday.
Potential continues for localized MAJOR flash flooding daily
through at least Thursday with each round of showers and
thunderstorms that forms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain
developing over central NY and northeast PA at present.
Watching a larger batch of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast U.S. and Mid Atlantic that is heading north.
Some models bring it through our region tonight, others weaken
it.
If this area of rain hits us, it would make conditions worse.
Susquehanna, Chenango and Tioughnioga Rivers expecting minor
flooding.
Headwater river points, streams and poor drainage areas in all
river basins will remain vulnerable to rapid rises and flash
flooding with locally heavy rain.
Rest of larger rivers and lakes not expected to flood at this time.
Previous events: June 28-29, 2013
Previous events: July 1-2, 2013
North Main Street Sherburne, NY last night
Courtesy: Rick L. Crow
7 day observed rainfall
7 day percent of normal: Purple 300 to 600% of normal!!!
> 600% of normal!!!!
Deep Tropical Moisture Feed through at least Thursday
Blocking High Pressures
Deep Tropical Moisture Feed
H H
Remnants of Gulf System
1230 pm Radar
Scattered showers/thunderstorms developing
Next batch of heavy rain heading north
Model Radar as of 5 pm this evening
Model Radar as of 8 pm this evening
Model Radar as of 11 pm this evening
72 hr rainfall amounts used in river models
30% Chance of Moderate River Flooding in highlighted area below.
Minor flooding main branch of Susquehanna River in NY
Moderate flooding Chenango River Sherburne
Minor flooding upper Mohawk River
Flash Flood Rainfall Thresholds
• Twin-Tier region of NY/PA around 1 inch of rain needed in 3 hours to cause flash flooding (red).
• Rest of area between 1.25 and 2.5 inches needed in 3 hours for flash flooding to begin.
Rainfall Timing
- Showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and will continue this evening
- Another batch of heavy rain possible later this evening??
- Locally very heavy rain will fall and cause more localized flash flooding.
- Wednesday and Thursday likely will see the same pattern with an afternoon and evening peak in shower and thunderstorm activity and associated highest risk for flash flooding.
- Pattern could break down by Friday with a reduced threat for flash flooding.
River Crest Timing • Tributaries of Susquehanna river in NY crest today,
tonight and Wednesday morning. • Main Branch of Susquehanna River in NY crests
Wednesday night/early Thursday. • Susquehanna River in PA crests Thursday below
flood stage. • Rest of larger rivers and lakes should remain below
flood stage. • Any smaller river tributary, stream, or poor drainage
area will be susceptible to rapid rises and flash flooding until Thursday.
• Biggest threat continues to be localized MAJOR flash flooding.
Current River Stages and Forecasts
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=BGM
For continuous updates:
– General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm
– River Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm
– Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/