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“Enabling PV Iran”
Objectives and Study Design
Luz Aguilar BSW Solar Teheran, Dec. 21th, 2015
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Financed by: the German Foreign Office
Timeframe: November- December 2015
Local Support:
Project Partners:
Objectives and Activities
Objective: to contribute to the sustainable deployment of PV in Iran.
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Preparing templates for interviews
Research on legal framework and administrative procedure
Interviews with local stakeholders
Identification of business models and barriers
Consolidation and analysis of information
Analysis of the barriers and the feasibility of business models
selected
Description of business models, barriers and
profitability. Recommendations for next
steps
Presentation of project results at a workshop in Iran
ACTIVITIES AND SCHEDULE
October 2015
November 2015
November 2015
December 2015
Benefits and Outputs
• Transfer of technology and facilitation of business
• Information for investors and project developers who are now
entering the PV sector in Iran based on the business models
• Knowledge exchange with German experts with
understanding of the international solar markets as well as
current trends regarding business models for solar PV
Output:
1. The study Enabling PV
2. Workshop with stakeholders
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Starting Point
In many countries solar energy is cost competitive with many other energy
sources, but potential investors do not know …
• Is it legal to use it?
• Is it profitable?
• What is the right business model to maximize benefits?
– Should I consume and/or sell the electricity?
• Where do I get the components and the know how?
• How / where is financing available?
And what is the situation like in Iran?
What has been reached?
Where are the challenges?
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BSW-Solar - “Enabling PV”
• BSW and GIZ select focus countries with attractive legal or economic
frameworks for new business models
• Projects serve as „Guidance“ for entering the market or project
development
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Brazil (engl.) Jordan (engl.) Tunesia (engl., fr.)
http://www.solarwirtschaft.de/en/international-activities/enabling-pv.html
Is any of the business models applicable in Iran?
Study design:
• Development of guiding questions
• Desk research for analysis on the
– Legal framework and main actors
– Business models applicable
– Business conditions
Interviews with:
– Policy makers at national level
– Project developers
– PV companies
• Involvement of local partners: Iran-Wind Group and Solar Sky for
local research and contact distribution
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Business Model Analysis
General questions on the market:
- Actors, Laws,
- Technologies & System sizes
- Project development process
- Contractual issues
- Grid connection issue
- Certifications and requirements
- Ratability analysis (parameters)
- Sensitivity analysis (parameters)
- Other information
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Results: Profitable Business Models
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Power Purchase Agreements (PPA)
(Basic concept)
- Production of electricity at large scale
- Sale to utility or private off-taker
- Long term contract (>15 years or more)
2 examples for Iran
- Small scale project: 500kWp
- Large scale project: 5MWp
Results: Profitability Analysis of the 2 models
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PV Project PV Business Model
PV System Size kWp 5.000 Feed-in Tariff
Specific System Cost IRR/kWp 50.000.000 Tarif Coeffizient (Year 1-10)
Investment Subsidy IRR - Tarif Coeffizient (Year 10-20)
Total System Cost IRR 250.000.000.000 Exchange Rate
Fixed Operation Costs IRR p.a. 7.700.000.000 Exchange Rate Escalation
Variable Operation Costs IRR/kWh - Inflation Rate
OpEx Escalation Rate % p.a. 10,50% Feed-in Tariff Escalation
PV Generation Results
Specific Yield kWh/qm/a 2000 Net-Present Value
Performance Factor % 80% Project IRR
Specific System Performance kWh/kWp/a 1.600 Equity IRR
Degradation % p.a. 0,70% Payback Period
Project IRR
Project Duration Years 20 Equity IRR
Equity IRR 54.935.683.941 Payback Period
Debt (Gearing) 80% IRR 200.000.000.000 LCOE* (w/o subsidy)
Loan Tenor Years 7 LCOE (w subsidy)
Interest Rate % 4,0% Min DSCR**
Discount Rate % 15,0% Min LLCR***
Investment
Results: Recommendations
- Steps and procedures as given in the legislation
- Information on the procedures based on interviews
and experience (delays, barriers)
- Business conditions in Iran
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Thank you for your attention!
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