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transcript
Beingeveryday scientistsin communities
Dennis D. Embry, Ph.D., President/CEO, PAXIS Institute
CADCA, Washington, DC, February 11, 2008
www.paxis.org
1-520-299-6770
Copyright © 2009, PAXIS Institute. All rights reserved. Simple Gifts, ™ Evidence-Based Kernels™ and KERNELS™ are Trademarks of PAXIS Institute, licensed to Simple Gifts, Inc.
1Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Using powerful, practical and simple experimental ways to prove that prevention is happening in communities.
“If your result needs a statistician, then you should design a better experiment”
Ernest Rutherford quotes (Baron
Rutherford of Nelson. New Zealander born British Chemist who laid the groundwork for the development of nuclear physics by
investigating radioactivity. Nobel
Prize in 1908. 1871-1937)
2Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Let’s practice identifying types of measurable actions (behaviors)
Behavior =
Reliably measurable actions (frequency, duration and/or intensity) of a person in a specific environment.
3Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Behavior has
VoteA) Frequency
B) Duration
C) Intensity
D) All of the above
4Tuesday, December 7, 2010
An example of frequency at school is
VoteA) A student cursing on the
PA
B) 6 suspensions per week
C) A lock-down for 45 minutes
5Tuesday, December 7, 2010
An example of frequency in the community is
VoteA) 5 out of 20 times clerks
sell alcohol to minors last month
B) The student keg-party lasted for 4.5 hours
C) The car crash involving a DUI killed four people
6Tuesday, December 7, 2010
An example of duration at school is
VoteA) The student slept through
two class periods
B) Attendance this month was 87.3%
C) Half of the kids on probation got all F’s at school
7Tuesday, December 7, 2010
An example of duration in community is
VoteA) The members of the gang
were charged with with 16 felonies
B) The arson will close the Boy’s & Girl’s Club for two weeks
C) The arson cost $350K
8Tuesday, December 7, 2010
An example of intensity at school is
VoteA) Student shoots and
wounds two students.
B) 14% of the students did not turn in homework today.
C) The students created a disturbance for 15 minutes
9Tuesday, December 7, 2010
An example of intensity in community is
VoteA) A police offer killed by
meth addict after 45 minute car crash
B) The average zoo visitor spends 2.5 hours
C) The police had 245 service calls last week.
10Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Trend-line for humorous warnings on binge drinking
0
4
8
12
16
20
1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Per
cent
age
No Warnings Humorous Warnings
12Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Reward & Reminder:
Everyday scientist results
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Baseline After Reward and Reminder
Perc
enta
ge o
f Ille
gal o
r Non
-Com
plia
nt T
obac
co S
ales
to M
inor
s Wyoming
Wisconsin
2005 2006
2005 2006
2007
2007
16Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Reward & Reminder:
Everyday scientist results
Youth Who Smoked Every Day the Last 30 Days
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Baseline Reward and Reminder
Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control
Wyoming
Wisconsin
United States
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Wyoming
Wisconsin
United States
Youth Who Smoked During the Last 30 DaysBaseline Reward and Reminder
Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control
= Trend = Wyoming = Wisconsin =United States
Youth Who Smoked Every Day the Last 30 Days
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Baseline Reward and Reminder
Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control
Wyoming
Wisconsin
United States
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Wyoming
Wisconsin
United States
Youth Who Smoked During the Last 30 DaysBaseline Reward and Reminder
Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control
= Trend = Wyoming = Wisconsin =United States
17Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Survival analysis to show long-term advantage of a strategy
0
25
50
75
100
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8
Per
cent
Not
Usi
ng D
rugs
Standard Community TreatmentPrize Bowl for Recovery
18Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Become an everyday scientistJoin us at www.paxis.org sign up for our blogs and other presentations.
Download materials that will be added over time to help you become an everyday scientist.
Consider using low-cost, evidence-based kernels to change your community. Kernels will soon be available in mid-2009 at…
www.GiveSimpleGifts.com
Thank you.
20Tuesday, December 7, 2010