Post on 27-Mar-2015
transcript
Operationalising suppressed demand
Steve Thorne and other consortium members
Sustainable Development Methodologies workshop, UNFCCC
Bonn 24th and 25th March 2012
Contents
• Consortium (Gold Standard, NIRAS, Perspectives, SouthSouthNorth Africa)
• Typologies• Treatment• Case studies for methodologies• Some conclusions
Typologies• Suppressed demand is all about service levels
and estimating what is required to reach them.• 3 - types identified so far:1.No livelihoods increase minimum service levels;2.Livelihoods increasing introduction of RE tech
Sufficiency Service Level;3.Livelihoods increasing introduction of EE tech in
attaining Suffiency Service Level.• Others?
Treatments of typologies
• Establishing Service Levels;• Establishing baseline scenarios
(fuel/technology);• Establishing energy required in project and
baseline; • Emissions calculations may make use of ex-
post calculations/standards/predictions;• Simple monitoring.
Case study 1 Thermal performance in dwelling structures (SSNA)
• Project case study is thermal performance improvements of new and existing low income structures;
• Where the suppressed demand is in unmet demand for attaining heated thermal comfort
• This is typology 3;• Service level is attaining 21o C (as per lowest
level on bioclimatic chart) during non sleeping occupancy periods.
Case study 1: Thermal performance in dwelling structures
• The treatment is to calibrate a predictive tool to estimate the quantity of heat required to reach thermal comfort;
• Monitoring of each class of dwelling structure in each climatic zone to establish occupation and technologies are in place.
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Thermal Performance: Insulated ceiling installation - Public Works
Case Study 2: Rural electrification and energization (NIRAS)
• The methodology is focusing on rural electrification and energization based on field work in Malawi.
• The project is supported by Malawian DNA.• Suppressed demand is primarily an issue for rural
areas, i.e. people have limited access to lighting, electricity for cooling purposes and communication.
• Improving access to electricity results in improved livelihood.
Case Study 2: Rural electrification and energization (NIRAS)
• Typology 1 defines the pre-project situation.• The methodology will propose minimum service
level for different consumer groups ( households , dispensaries, schools etc.) and
types of end use.• The minimum service levels is based on an
evaluation of different type of services – over time this can improved further.
• Cap the carbon credits to minimum service level.
Case Study 2: Rural electrification and energization (NIRAS)
Photo :Chinansi Foundationand NIRAS,December 2011,Malawi
Dispensary, Malawi – Suppressed demand is expressed by use of kerosene lamp and lack of refrigerator to store medicine.
Case Study 3: Energy use in the processing of agricultural products (Perspectives)
• The Methodology is for the supply of energy for the mechanical transformation of products (milling, extraction, separation, etc.) based on field work in Benin (concrete project by GERES).
• Suppressed demand: either (i) no access to energy (no electricity grid) or (ii) insufficient access (e.g. affordability of diesel).
• Local mechanical processing avoids wastes, reduces exhausting work, increases the added value at farmer level.
• The project is of typology 1 with non-existing, insufficient or even declining level of pre-project service.
• Minimum Service Level (MSL): enough mechanical energy to process products – for own needs and minimum to be sold - based on the community size (to be defined).
• Total power supplied capped for user groups (entrepreneur or cooperative): 16-20 hp engines.
Case Study 3: Energy use in the processing of agricultural products(Perspectives)
• Suppressed demand in Benin: the mechanical extraction of palm oil replaces the labor-intensive manual processing.
Case Study 3: Energy use in the processing of agricultural products(Perspectives)
Some conclusions• GS (capped) - CDM (uncapped);• MSL and SSL is sometimes difficult and potentially
political;• Materiality of emissions reduction increases?• Timelines to acheive MSL or SSL;• Predictive tools and models need attention;• Aim to retain operational simplicity;• Suppressed demand, sustinable development and
geographical equity;• NAMAs and New Market Mechanisms?
Thank-you from our consortium
• Contacts:• Meinrad Buerer: Gold Standard• Morten Pedersen: NIRAS• Alberto Galante: Perspectives• Steve Thorne: SouthSouthNorth Africa