Post on 22-Feb-2016
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OwlSim: Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology
COMP 410 in Collaboration with Citizens for Affordable Energy
Overview
• Introduction • Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features• Conclusion• Questions
Overview• Introduction
– The Class: COMP 410– The Customer: Citizens for Affordable Energy– Project Motivation– The Mission– The Team
• Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features• Conclusion• Questions
The Class: COMP 410
• “Software Engineering Methodology”• Design class satisfying computer science
Bachelors of Science degree capstone requirement
• Warm-up project during first 3 weeks, then semester-long project … with a real customer!
• Student driven – no problem sets or lectures
The Customer:Citizens for Affordable Energy
• CFAE is a national not-for-profit membership association
• Goal is to educate citizens and policymakers about non-partisan national energy solutions
• Leadership– John Hofmeister, Founder and CEO– Karen Hofmeister, Executive Director
• www.citizensforaffordableenergy.org
Project Motivation
• CFAE is concerned with the lack of a long-term national energy policyCurrent policy may result in serious shortfalls in energy availability, affordability and sustainability
• CFAE wants a public software tool to simulate the long-term effects of national policies
The Mission
• Develop a simulation framework to predict the effects of policies
• Model U.S. electric power generation and distribution
• Create plans corresponding to best, average, and worst case scenarios
• Make the results accessible to the public
The Team
• User Interface Team– Jesus Cortez, Team Leader– Robyn Moscowitz– Tung Nguyen– Narae Kim
• Simulation Team– Ashrith Pillarisetti, Team Leader– Linge Dai– Mina Yao
The Team
• Modeling Team– Irina Patrikeeva, Team Leader– Elizabeth Fudge– Ace Emil
• Framework Team– Weibo He, Team Leader– Jarred Payne– Yunming Zhang– Xiangjin Zou
Management and Support
• Robert Brockman II – Project Manager• James Morgensen – Architect • Daniel Podder – Integration Master• Elizabeth Fudge – Organization Master
Overview
• Introduction • Simulation Framework– Theoretical Design– System Capabilities
• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features• Conclusion• Questions
Theoretical Design
• Modeling complex systems with mathematical functions
• Functions represented as modular “circuit elements” with inputs and outputs
• Functional modules can be “composited” – Encapsulate components of model– Allows composite modules with other modules
inside.– Arbitrarily complicated models can be created
System Capabilities• Scalability & Elasticity– Scaling up and down according to loads– Possible Parallel and distributed simulation instances– Possible Load Balancing
• Flexibility– Supporting multiple Use Cases– Easy Maintenance , low cost
• Stability– Handling hardware failures– Handling software failures
Overview
• Introduction • Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans– Model Implementation– Viewing the Results– Worst, Average and Best Case Scenarios
• Advanced Features• Conclusion• Questions
Model Implementation
• Four main components drive the simulation – Producer Module– Consumer Module– Infrastructure Module– Environment Module
The Model Details• Producer simulates
– Production of electricity from 8 sources • Coal• Natural Gas• Nuclear• Hydroelectric• Wind• Solar• Geothermal• Other (fuel cells, hydrogen, etc.)
– Production of transportation fuel from 2 sources• Oil (petroleum)• Biofuels
The Model Details
• Infrastructure module simulates– Transport of electricity and fuel– Exchanges the price with Producer module
• Consumer module simulates– Electricity and fuel demand from consumers
• Environmental module simulates– The net pollution emitted by Producer,
infrastructure and consumer modules
Simulation Design
• The system starts at 2010 with a list of initial values or assumptions
• Based on the assumptions Producer calculates net production of electricity and fuel
• User can provide events that change assumptions and affect the energy future generation
User Assumptions
• User has the ability to change many aspects of simulation, including (but not limited to):– How much electricity and fuel is produced from
each source– Net electricity and pollution produced from each
source (by changing power plants capacity)– Electricity lost due to transmission – Cost of production from each source– Population growth rate
Worst-Case Plan
• Simulation runs with default values (2010 data)
• No new power plants are built• Nothing is done to reduce pollution• Population and energy demand grows while
supply decreases due to decommission of old power plants
Average-Case Plan
• User builds new energy sources • Producing more electricity from cleaner
renewable energy reduces the gap between supply and demand
• Environmental pollution is reduced• No technological breakthroughs (capacity and
cost of production do not drastically change)
Best-Case Plan
• Supply meets demand• Energy is produced from clean renewable
sources at affordable price• Pollution is reduced
Comparison with Other Models
• No complicated equations • Directly shows user changes• Easy to use and test various assumptions• Unbiased
Overview
• Introduction • Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features– Changing the Plans– Changing the Model– System Administration
• Conclusion• Questions
Changing the Plans
• User logs in using a Windows Live ID• Edit plan– Change inputs to simulation– Adding, changing events
• Save plan• Simulate model with modified plan
Changing the Model
• Allows completely customized models using XML format
System Administration
• Used by CFAE administrators • Adding Users• Changing Privileges
Overview
• Introduction • Simulation Framework• Energy Model and Plans• Advanced Features• Conclusion– Implications for Energy Policy Development– Acknowledgements
• Questions
Implications for Energy Policy Development
• Ability to model new policies rapidly• Lots of flexibility• Common ground to model different policies
with same framework• Education of public• Public forum for discussion on energy policy
Acknowledgements
• CFAE– John Hofmeister, Karen Hofmeister
• Professors– Dr. Stephen Wong, Dr. Scott Rixner
• TAs– Dennis Qian, Max Grossman, Milind Chabbi, Rahul
Kumar• Oshman Engineering Design Kitchen staff• Microsoft
Acknowledgements
• Smalley Institute:– Dr. Wade Adams– Dr. Carter Kittrell
• Dr. Richard Johnson• Steven Wolff• Others– Jeffrey Bridge, Jeffrey Hokanson, Stamatios George
Mastrogiannis
QUESTIONS
References
• EIA etc.