PILOTING SCALED-UP CREDITING IN SRI LANKAN POWER SECTOR: UNDERSTANDING CONTRIBUTION OF CREDITING TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NDC TECHNICAL WORKSHOP ON SCALED-UP CREDITING APPROACHES 31 MAY 2016

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§  Objec(ve:GovtNCREobjec(ve:20%NCREby2020§  CPFProgramobjec(ve:SupportincreaseinNCREpowergenera4on

abovethebaselinethroughcarbonfinance§  Technologiesiden(fied:Renewables(wind,hydro,biomass/dendro,

solar)§  Stakeholders:CeylonElectricityBoard,SriLankaCarbonFund,Min

Power,MinEnvironment,SustainableEnergyAuthority,PublicU4li4esCommission,MinFinance,organizedprivatesector

§  Overalldesign:Sectorcredi4ngschemeforemissionreduc4onsgeneratedabovethebaselineand“owneffort”,dependsonINDCtreatment

§  Financialaspects:Publicorprivatesectorfinanceprojects–largelybasedonstrengthofpowerpurchaseagreementwithCEB,supportedbycommercialbanksandanyotherclimatefinancebecomingavailable

§  Ins(tu(onalcapacity:CEB&SriLankaCarbonfund

Programrecap

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§  Uncondi4onalemissionreduc4ontarget§  emissionreduc4onfromexis4nghydro,Non-Conven4onal

RenewableEnergy(NCRE)andfuturehydrodevelopments§  expectedtobe4.88milliontCO2by2030,a4%reduc4onagainst

the2010baseline.Thistranslatestoacumula4veemissionreduc4onfortheperiodof2015-2030of74.56milliontCO2.

§  Condi4onalEmissionreduc4ontarget

§  throughfutureNCREdevelopments§  amountsto3.33milliontCO2in2030andcumula4vely30.21

milliontCO2fortheperiodof2015-2030.§  emissionreduc4onfromexternalsupportis16%in2030,when

comparedtothelikelydemandin2030followingthereduc4onsofthena4onalcommitment.

SriLankaINDC(forthepowersector)

AT3:MWhequi.toZ%NCRE

YearStartyear(e.g.

2014)Y3

MWh

Y1

AT1:MWhequi.toX%NCRE

BaselineMWh(owneffort=MWhfromexis(ng+newhydroplants)

Addi4onalowneffortifSL

decidestoclaimcondi4onal

targetunderthePA

CreditableMWh

MWhfromexis4ngplants

Y2

AT2:MWhequi.ToY%NCRE

TotalMWhincreased=maximumcreditableMWh

Uncon

di(o

nal

target

Cond

i(on

alta

rget

Credi4ngapproach(anillustra4on)

The actual NCRE generation, when monitored at regular intervals, can be higher, lower or same compared to the aspirational target generation levels. Setting aspirational targets expected to create the necessary momentum within the Government’s long term generation planning and to consider renewable energy as one of the options for ensuring energy security.

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Scenario#1:Countrytransferscreditsanddonotclaimen(re‘condi(onal’targetunderINDC

Figa:ScenariowhereSriLankacanclaimonlyX%asachievingcondi4onalINDCtarget

Figb:ScenariowhereSriLankacanclaimonly(4%+X%)asachievingun-condi4onalINDCtarget

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Scenario#2:Countrytransferscreditsandincreasesitsambi(onfurthertoclaim‘condi(onal’targetunderINDC

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Baseline&abovebaseline(forex-antees4ma4ons)

11.7% 11.7%

14.1% 14.3% 14.0%15.0% 14.9% 15.1% 14.7% 14.3% 13.8%

11.7% 11.7%

14.2%

16.2% 16.0%

19.2% 19.7%20.6% 20.4%

19.7% 19.7%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

23.0%

25.0%

2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

ShareofNCREoutofTotalGenera4on

Baseline Abovebaseline

Theexpectedcumula4veemissionreduc4onpoten4alduringtheperiod2016–2025isaround5milliontCO2e.