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Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance
Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses
from a Governance PerspectiveSarah N. Repucci
UNDP Consultant
7 July 2010
Presentation Outline
Overview of the Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis project
Research approach
Preliminary findings
Presentation Outline
Overview of the Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis project
Research approach
Preliminary findings
Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis
Aim: To develop research on crisis responses from a governance perspective and support policy debates to outline a new governance reform agenda for Eastern Europe and the former Soviet states, during and post-economic crisis.
Presentation Outline
Overview of the Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis project
Research approach
Preliminary findings
Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis
Situation analysis mapping
country overviews
Case studies
Paper on crisis responses from a governance capacity perspective
Presentation Outline
Overview of the Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis project
Research approach
Preliminary findings
Stimulus and Austerity
stimulus plan stability, populism, fiscal cushion
austerity measures cases of currency peg, aspiration to euro adoption, external demands
combination in tandem, or in succession
Stimulus and Austerity
Governance implications: stimulus more popular among populations elections often preceded switch to austerity vulernable groups better protected than in the
past
Policy import and home-grown responses
external aid strings attached EU accession form of policy import some home-grown responses
IMF and other loans
$540 million
$3.5 billion
$1.57 billion$1.2 billion
$25 billion
€7.5 billion
$574 million
$21 billion
$17.1 billion$3.88 billion
$152.6 million
$16.4 billion
Policy import and home-grown responses
Governance implications: many could not meet IMF commitments some resistance to IFI aid home-grown more popular, but effective?
Policy consensus and political deadlock
challenging political circumstances delayed or dampened responses most turmoil was not directly caused by the
economic crisis, but exacerbated by it
consensus rapid implementation some anti-crisis measures were struck
down in the courts
Established frameworks and ad hoc measures
established frameworks could be enabling or restrictive
ad hoc measures e.g. emergency spending
functional reviews