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Photovoltaic Solar: Market and Technology Trends (Industrial Application of Organic Photonics)
June 24, 2008Fachri Atamny
Page 2 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline
Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues- Market growth drivers- Market size, segments, and growthPhotovoltaic Solar Technologies- Trends, Changes and DisruptionsIndustrial Applications of organic Photonics- SC vs. Displays vs. Solar
Page 3 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers
Primary Driver:
Energy demand:- 2007: 13 terawatts - 2030: 18 terawatts - 2050: 26 terawatts
Secondary Drivers (most are result of the primary driver: energy demand)
Environmental issues (global worming / climate changes, CO2 reduction/penalties)Oil Price (30 $ > 100$)Natural Gas PriceCoal PriceNational Security (energy security concerns)
Politics: Subsidy, feed in tariff (artificial market)
Grid Parity (real market)
Page 4 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Solar Cell Market Growth DriversEnergy Demand: World energy consumption 1980-2050
13 terawatts (2007)
18 terawatts (2030)
26 terawatts (2050)
Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.
1 terawatts1000 Nuclear Reactors
283 309347 366 400
447511 559
607 654702
771847
9301'021
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
History Projection
Projection: assumption that 1.9% growth in energy consumption p.a.
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Market size, growth, and segmentsEnergy Demand by Segmentation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Electr i cal Power Tr anspor tation Ther mal
Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.
Quadrillion Btus
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Electrical Power 54% 58% 58% 58% 59% 59%Transportation 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%Thermal 19% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
58% Electricity
27% Transportation
15% Thermal
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New renewable
2%
Oil7%
Hydro16%
Nuclear15%
Coal40%
gas20%
Market size, growth, and segmentsEnergy Total Market Size: Electricity
2004 only ~0.06% of electricity generated worldwide was from PV solar.
[%]Coal 40.3gas 19.7Oil 6.6Hydro 16Nuclear 15.2New renewable 2.2
Total [%] 100
67%
Source: Credite Suisse, November 2007. Total Electricity Production Mix – 2005; CLSA, Solar Maximum, May 2007.EIA, EPA, International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.
31%
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Market size, growth, and segmentsElectricity World Market Size
Source: Credite Suisse, November 2007; International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.
Electricity market:
2004 8 TW
2010 9.3 TW
2015 10.5 TW
2030 13 TW
2050 15 TW
ca 150 GW per year
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GW
OECD Non-OECD
World Electricity Market
Page 8 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
Year
Rea
ctor
Num
ber
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy DemandElectricity Generation from Nuclear Power
2004 2015 2030
369[GW]
Delta
China
India
Russia
South Korea
Japan
U.S.A
Canada
492
123
36
17
20
16
14
13
6
420
51
Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, International Atomic Enregy, World Nuclear Association;Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy.
- 115 30 years old- 156 27 years old- 328 20 years old Ca 10 Years are needed for
planning and building a nuclear power plant
Page 9 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Solar Cell Market Growth DriversEnvironmental Issue: CO2 Reduction
Source: Engineering & Science 2/2007, World Energy Assessment Overview 2004, UNDP.
There is no natural destruction mechanism for carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.Unlike the ozone depletion, it will not heal by itself through chemical processes.
The time needed for 500 to 600 ppmv of CO2 to decay back o 300 ppmv is between 500 and 5000 years.
CO2 level:(if NO CO2 reduction takes place)
2007: 380 ppmv2050: 550 ppmv2100: 750 ppm
CO2[ppmv]
Global Temp.Rise [°C]
Consequences /Remarks
380
550
750
+2 Coral reefs die. Upper limit.
Serious for humans
The clean, carbon-free energy needed to stabilize CO2 level at 550 ppmv in 2050 is
15 – 20 terawatts
Page 10 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy DemandOil Price Development
Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. The Council of the European Union. bbl=Barrel
2006 2014 2030
68Oil Price $ 59*49
Reference case
* $95 per barrel on a nominal basis.
2007 already $100 (!)
1st Gulfwar
Asia Crisis
DemandRecovery
0
20
40
60
80
100
History Projections
Low Oil Price
Reference
High Oil Price
US$/bbl
1980 1995 2006 2015 2030
World Oil Prices in Three Cases
1970 1980 1990 2000 20070
20
40
60
80
100
120
US$/bbl
OPECcrisis
Iran/Iraqwar
1st Gulfwar
Demandrecovery
Asia crisis
Afghanistanwar begins
Iraq warbegins
Page 11 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy DemandCoal Price Development
Source: Photon Consulting, 3/2008; Wall Street Journal;
The price per metric ton for coal out of Newcastle, Australia, is a key benchmark for the Asian market.
40%
of the Electricity is generated using coal.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
20
40
60
80
100
120
140$
US$/metric ton
Increase of coal price
leads to increase of
Electricity price
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Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy DemandNatural Gas Price Development
Source: natural gas week
20%
of the Electricity is generated using gas.
Increase of gas price
leads to increase of
Electricity price US$/million Btu = cost + insurance + freight
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
US$
/mill
ion
Btu
LNG-Japan NG-EU NG US
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Solar Cell Market Growth DriversConclusions: Market Drivers
Market is there: 13 TW (2007); 18 TW (2030); 26 TW (2050)
To Dos- Create real market by achieving grid-parity to be competitive with
conventional energy sources.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Natural gas
Coal
Wind - onshore
Wind - offshore
Nuclear
Geothermal
Hydro
Solar thermal
Solar (photovoltaic)
Typical electricity generation costs
Page 14 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline
Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues- Market growth drivers- Market size, segments, and growthPhotovoltaic Solar Technologies- Trends, Changes and DisruptionsIndustrial Applications of organic Photonics- SC vs. Displays vs. Solar
Page 15 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
80; 19%
7'729; 18%
139; 0%
546; 1%
26'449; 62%
Europe
North America
Asia-Pacif ic
Latin America
Middle East & Africa
PV Solar Market Size and Growth 2007-2011: Summary
Focus on:
- EU: 61%- DE, SP, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal
- Asia: 18%- Japan, China, S-Korea, India
- N-America: 19%- US
- Middle East 1%- Dubai, Oman, Abu Dhabi
Page 16 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline
Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues- Market growth drivers- Market size, segments, and growthPhotovoltaic Solar Technologies- Trends, Changes and DisruptionsIndustrial Applications of organic Photonics- SC vs. Displays vs. Solar
Page 17 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Photovoltaic Solar TechnologiesTechnology Trends, Changes & Disruptions
Bulk
Thin Film
Thin Film
Source: Oerlikon
Single Crystal WaferMulti-Crystal Wafer
MonocrystallinePolycrystalline
Amorphous (a-Si)
Highest EfficiencyHighest Material CostsRigid
Lowest Invest Costs
Tandem (a-Si/uc-Si)CdTe
Liquid electrolyteGel electrolyteSolid-state electrolyteOrganic – Organic*Organic – Fullerene**Organic - Inorganic
Silicon (Si)
Ga / As
Si
CdTe
Dye Sensitized
Full Organic
Hybrid
CIS
* Organic includes organic molecules as well as polymers. Organic – Organic means that both the donor and the acceptor are organic based materials. ** The polymer or the organic molecule acts as donor and fullerene derivates molecules acts as acceptors.
CISCIGS
Medium EfficiencyMedium Material CostsRigid & Flexible
Medium Invest Costs
Lowest EfficiencyLowest Material CostsRigid & Flexible
Lowest Invest Costs
Inor
gani
c P
VO
rgan
ic P
V
Ribbon Silicon Wafer
Page 18 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline
Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues- Market growth drivers- Market size, segments, and growthPhotovoltaic Solar Technologies- Trends, Changes and DisruptionsIndustrial Applications of organic Photonics- SC vs. Displays vs. Solar
Page 19 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Semi, Displays, Solar: Complexity vs. Device Size
SC Display Solar
Device Size
SC Display SolarDS
Complexity
TFT
OTFT
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Information & Data Displaying
Mechanical
Chemical
Electronicinorganic
Technology Principle
- Stone- Leather- paper/ Plastic
- Film, Slide etc
- CRT- LCD- PDP
- OLED
Eng
inee
ring
Task
Eng
inee
ring
OrganicElectronic
Up-time Up
Yield Up
Throughput Up
Equipment $ Down
Consumable Down
Footprint Down
Utilization Up
Manuf. Steps Down
Automation Up
MP Complexity Down
Page 21 24.01.2008 Fachri Atamny
Comparison:
Dye Sensitized Cells: Production Volumes & Planned Capacities
Company Country Semi-conductor
ProductionEnd 2006
CapacityEnd 2006
CapacityEnd 2007
CapacityEnd 2008
CapacityEnd 2009
CapacityEnd 2010
Source: Sun & Wind Energy 1/2007; Capacity=MWp
UK TiO2/dye 5 5 30 <200 (200) (200)G24 Innovation
Orionsolar PV Is TiO2/dye - - 2 (5) (10) (25)
Solar Technol Greece TiO2/dye - - - 1.5 2 3
Peccell Technol Japan TiO2/dye - - - 0.5 1 2