Post on 18-Jul-2020
transcript
Pinterest (PINS.US)
- Initial Analysis Skeleton -
James Yeh
August 21, 2019
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts
jamesckyeh@mail2000.com.tw
Products / FeaturesDownload App or visit pinterest.com Social graph not a major friction for adoption
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts
Products / Features (1/3)
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 3
Home feed Search
Products / Features (2/3)
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 4
Lens Visual search
Products / Features (3/3)
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 5
Promoted Pins Browser button
Competitors Identified by Pinterest
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 6
Established Companies Vertical-Focused Companies
……
MonetizationAds are native / organic on Pinterest
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts
Ads Format (1/2)
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 8
Promoted Pins Promoted Video Pins
Ads Format (2/2)
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 9
Promoted App Pins Promoted Carousels
Business ModelAn illustration
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 11
[Business Model]
What is the underlying we’re betting on?Searching for reference model
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts
Social Network Service?
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1Q
10
3Q
10
1Q
11
3Q
11
1Q
12
3Q
12
1Q
13
3Q
13
1Q
14
3Q
14
1Q
15
3Q
15
1Q
16
3Q
16
1Q
17
3Q
17
1Q
18
3Q
18
1Q
19
Snapchat
Baidu App*
Kakao Talk
Line
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1Q
09
3Q
09
1Q
10
3Q
10
1Q
11
3Q
11
1Q
12
3Q
12
1Q
13
3Q
13
1Q
14
3Q
14
1Q
15
3Q
15
1Q
16
3Q
16
1Q
17
3Q
17
1Q
18
3Q
18
1Q
19
User Base (M)
Note: twitter now discloses mDAU.
Internet Content?
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 14
16 36 70 147 248361
513 587719 817
1,024 1,147
1,367 1,547
1,729 1,991
2,184 2,424
2,631 2,880
3,170 3,417
3,650 3,896
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
No. of Internet Users (M)
0 0 1 2 3 17 29 39 41 52 65 86 122 172 238 207
346
697 673
969 863
1,046
1,767
1,630
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
No. of Website (M)
30,000,000
130,000,000
Mar-13 Nov-16
Google Indexed Pages (M)
Investment Thesis & ApproachLong-term development rather than short-term catalyst
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 16
[Write-up?]
Traction, Metrics & MonitorPrepare for long-term bet
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts
Traction – Monthly Active Users (MAU)
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 18
65 65 69 70 71 71 74 76 80 75 80 82 85 85
63 70 81 90 104 114 129 139160 156 171 184 206 215
128 135150 160
175 185203 215
240 231251
266291 300
37% 37% 35% 34% 37%
25% 24% 24% 21%30%
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Monthly Active Users (M) USInternational
Y/Y growth
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Monthly Active Users Net Addition (M)
US International
Traction – Revenue
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 19
$47 $62 $72 $111
$79 $96 $110 $163
$124 $153
$181
$257
$187 $238
$10
$7 $8
$9
$17
$15
$24
$47 $63 $74
$115
$82 $101
$116
$173
$131 $161
$190
$274
$202
$262
74%
60%57%
50%
60% 59%64%
58%54%
63%
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Revenue (M)US
International
$47 $82
$131
$202
$63 $101
$161
$262
$74 $116
$190
$115
$173
$274
74%
60%54%
60% 59%63%
57%
64%
50%
58%
1Q
16
1Q
17
1Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
16
2Q
17
2Q
18
2Q
19
3Q
16
3Q
17
3Q
18
3Q
19E
4Q
16
4Q
17
4Q
18
4Q
19E
US International Y/Y growth
$47 $63
$74
$115
$82 $101
$116
$173
$131
$161
$190
$274
$202
$262
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2016 2017 2018 2019
+59%
+58
%
+63%
Metric – US Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 20
$0.74 $0.96 $1.07
$1.60
$1.13 $1.36
$1.52
$2.17
$1.59
$1.98 $2.33
$3.16
$2.25
$2.80
53%
42% 42%
36%
41%
46%
53%
46%42% 41%
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
US ARPU
US ARPU Y/Y growth
$0.74 $1.13
$1.59
$2.25
$0.96 $1.36
$1.98
$2.80
$1.07
$1.52
$2.33
$1.60
$2.17
$3.16
53%
41% 42% 42%46%
41% 42%
53%
36%
46%
1Q
16
1Q
17
1Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
16
2Q
17
2Q
18
2Q
19
3Q
16
3Q
17
3Q
18
3Q
19E
4Q
16
4Q
17
4Q
18
4Q
19E
US ARPU Y/Y growth
Metric – International Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 21
0.01
0.030.04
0.030.04
0.05
0.07
0.05 0.050.06
0.090.08
0.11
300%
67% 75% 67%25% 20% 29%
60%
120%
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
International ARPU
International ARPU Y/Y growth
$0.03 $0.05
$0.08
$0.01 $0.04 $0.05
$0.11
$0.03 $0.05 $0.06
$0.04 $0.07
$0.09
67% 60%
300%
25%
120%
67%
20%
75%
29%
1Q
16
1Q
17
1Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
16
2Q
17
2Q
18
2Q
19
3Q
16
3Q
17
3Q
18
3Q
19E
4Q
16
4Q
17
4Q
18
4Q
19E
International ARPU Y/Y growth
Metric – Global Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 22
$0.39 $0.48 $0.52
$0.74
$0.49 $0.56 $0.60
$0.83
$0.58 $0.69
$0.79
$1.06
$0.73
$0.88
26%
17% 15%12%
18%23%
32%28% 26% 28%
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Global ARPU
Global ARPU Y/Y growth
$0.39 $0.49
$0.58 $0.73
$0.48 $0.56
$0.69
$0.88
$0.52 $0.60
$0.79 $0.74 $0.83
$1.06
26%
18%
26%
17%
23%
28%
15%
32%
12%
28%
1Q
16
1Q
17
1Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
16
2Q
17
2Q
18
2Q
19
3Q
16
3Q
17
3Q
18
3Q
19E
4Q
16
4Q
17
4Q
18
4Q
19E
Global ARPU Y/Y growth
Metric – Engagement
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 23
[DAU/MAU WAU/MAU]
Monitor – Human Capital, Sales & Marketing and Engineering
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 24
67
13
19
2Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19
No. of International Markets w/ Ads Product
1,797
1,904
2,005
4Q18 1Q19 2Q19
Headcount
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
3Q
19
No. of Posts @Pinterest_Engineering
Monitor – Employee Review and Talent Acquisition
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 25
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
4
18
121
JP
GB
ES
IT
BR
FR
DE
CA
AU
IE
US
Financials & ValuationCheck with your favorite analyst…
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts
Housekeeping
@yuinausicaa | yuinausicaa.com/posts 27