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Policies towards a low carbon future for transport

Holger Dalkmann16.01.2009

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Table of contents

Introduction

Policy Instruments to tackle climate change

Existing and future UNFCCC instruments

Policy Scenarios for a low carbon future

Recommendation: Process Steps

1

2

3

4

5

Transport Trends in Asian Countries

• Urbanization leads to growing traffic and reduced accessibility. • Urban transport is shifting from non-motorized to motorized transport. • Private transport is growing while public transport looses attraction.• Only minority of car-owners profits from car-friendly transport policies.

Consequences: Increase of GHG gases, Air pollution, accidents, etc.

• Access to employment, health and education is a basic need but roads alone can not fight poverty

• North-South-Transfer of technology and way-of-life is not sustainable.• The extension of road networks is not always a the appropriate option,

maintenance of existing roads would often be better.• Central planning without a participatory approach neglects the needs of

people and is not efficient.

Transport is still considered as a driving force to economic growth Supply of transport infrastructure is often seen as role of

governments (infrastructure as a merit good) Transport sector is a common playground for politicians Problems arise from the multitude of stakeholders and divided

responsibility in financing Growing demand since private costs of transport don´t cover total

social and environmental costs (negative external effects are not internalized)

Lack of Integrated Transport Planning (ITP) Climate Change does not play any role in national as well urban

decision-making

Barriers: Main Factors for Transport Growth

REGULATORY INSTRUMENTS (R)

,

PLANNING INSTRUMENTS (P)

ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS (E)

INFORMATION INSTRUMENTS (I)

TECHNOLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS (T)

AVAILABLE INSTRUMENTS

Carbon Emissions

CHOICE

POTENTIAL STRATEGY RESPONSES – REDUCING GHG EMISSIONSAVOID IMPROVESHIFT

I II RRR T TE EEP P

Sustainable Transport Strategy Responses

NON-MOTORISED TRANSPORT

Walking and Cycling

PUBLIC MOTORISED TRANSPORT

Public Transport - Bus, rail

TRAVEL DOES NOT TAKE PLACE

Need/desire to travel has been reduced

INDIVIDUAL MOTORISED TRANSPORT

Car, taxi

Decision to travel or not to travel and by which mode affects fuel consumption, and therefore carbon emissions -

Number of vehicles, level of congestion, driver behaviour, vehicle condition, fuel type

Leapfrogging of Transport Planning & Policy

participatory

sustainable

Stage 1 Europe bevor 1945

Stage 2Europe 1945-70‘

Stage 3Europe 70‘ - today

Stage 4Close future?

most Least Developed Countries (LDC) today

Developing and most Emerging Countries today

Leapfrogging-Process

Reproducing-Process

Leapfrogging: • Catching up in development while skipping false steps in between• Focus not only on technology but also visions, policy, and instruments

Motorization

ADB estimates 2005, 2008, 2015ADB estimates 2005, 2008, 2015

Trend

Leapfrogging

Delhi Transport

Source: ADB 2008

Role of transport under the current Kyoto Protocol

CDM does not work:2 transport projects out of 1186 registered projects!8 out 4151 projects in the pipeline 5 approved methodologies0.1 % of all CERs

No projects under Joint ImplementationTransport excluded in ETSNo specific link between Adaptation and Mitigation in the Adaptation Fund (Transport)

Future options for Mechanisms under 2012 regime

A) CDM - Bundling of projects: Initiative to apply same methodology in different cities (e.g BRT)

B) Policy/Programmatic CDM: CERs to public actor for the application of an instrument towards a sustainable transport system

C) Sectoral no lose Targets: CERs for meeting ambitious reduction targets for GHG emission in the transport sector on local level (NAMA as a potential set-up for Sectoral Approach)

D) New transport design Mechanism (Clean Transport Mechanism)E) Integration of Transport Mitigation into Adaptation FundF) ETS: Investing income in Transport project in Developing

Countries

(Post-)Kyoto Instruments and their (upscale) potential

Status-Quo Post 2012

CDM + +

Programmatic CDM + ++

JI + +

ETS 0 ++

Adaptation Fund 0 ++

Sectoral no lose 0 +++

CTM 0 +++

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REGULATORY INSTRUMENT

S (R),

PLANNING INSTRUMENT

S

ECONOMIC INSTRUMENT

S (E)

INFORMATION INSTRUMENT

S (I)

TECHNOLOGICAL

INSTRUMENTS (T)

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT INSTRUMENTS

POST CDM,

ETS POST JI Sectoral No lose

Adaptation Fund

POST 2012 INSTRUMENTS

Scenario 1 Trend

Weak Link

Scenario 2 Upscaling

Strong Link

Policy Scenarios: TREND vs UpscalingPost 2012 Success - UpscalingStrong Link between Post 2012 instruments and Sustainable TransportNo lose sectoral targets in place (NAMA as a framework)

Carbon Finance as a important driver for implementing Sustainable Transport Policy (High Incentive)

National Target in placeUrban Target established

Adaptation Fund combined with mitigation actions

Post 2012 TrendWeak Link between Post 2012 agreement and Sustainable TransportExtended flex mex (PoA CDM) but no major transport recognition

Carbon Finance as a minor driver for Implementing Sustainable Transport Policy (Low Incentive)

New methodologies, additionality no further barrier

Adaptation Fund plays no role for transport

Policy Scenarios – Consequences for enabling Sustainable Transport Policy

Post 2012 Trend Post 2012 Success - Upscaling

Main responsibilities on national level – strong support from donor organisation needed

Key role for international community – Implementation and Monitoring

Strong shift of national financial investment towards low carbon transport solutions (carbon tax etc.)

National government and urban decision-maker to set framework to combine carbon finance with local/national actions

Integrate Climate Change into Transport Planning and Policy

National Action Plans, Local Transport Plans needed

Process under Scenario 1 - Trend

Process under Scenario 2 - Upscaling

Conclusions

Following a the Western model will lead to an unsustainable future

A leapfrogging strategy towards a sustainable transport system is needed

Existing flexible mechanism are playing no role to support a leapfrogging strategy

Climate change can only be a driver if POST Kyoto includes transport (Carbon Finance as an enabler)

Otherwise the focus has to be on the co-benefits A mix of Post-Kyoto instruments together with local, regional and

national applications of policy instruments are needed

HOLGER DALKMANNHDALKMANN@TRL.CO.UK

Thanks for you attention!

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