Polycrystalline VS Thin-film solar PV plant

in-field performance, Southeast Asia

Setta Verojporn, Mott MacDonald

Philip Napier-Moore, Mott MacDonald

Xth December 2013

Solar Energy Southeast Asia

IMPACT Arena, Bangkok, Thailand

Outline

• Mott MacDonald and Our Experience

• Polycrystalline and Thin-Film Market & Technical Status

• Methodology

• Polycrystalline and Thin-film Performance Comparison

• Key Findings

Mott MacDonald and Our Experience

• Owner’s and Independent Engineer roles for more than 1.2 GW of Solar PV plants in Thailand and SE Asia – > 700 MWp for Independent Engineer roles

– > 500 MWp for Owner’s Engineer roles

• In-depth energy yield assessment of Solar PV plants

• Factory auditor for many Solar PV manufacturers

• Dedicated “Solar team” across Thailand, India, South Africa and UK has supported over 3 GW of Solar PV projects globally

Polycrystalline and Thin-Film Market Status

Multi-Si Mono-Si Thin film Ribbon-Si

45.3 %

13.5 %

0.4 %

40.8 %

2012

Global PV production by technology in

Ref : ISE

Key influences - crystalline module market domination

Maturity of the crystalline modules technologies

Massive increase in production capacity leads to significant drop in c-Si module prices in the past few years

Generally higher efficiency for crystalline modules at Standard Test Condition (STC)

2012

Polycrystalline and Thin-Film Technical Status

Ref: NREL

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Mono-Si Multi-Si CIGS CdTe a-Si

Highest confirmed module STC efficiencies by technology in 2013

BUT! Thin-film modules are commonly known as the “better performing technology” at

high ambient temperature low irradiance conditions

Higher STC Efficiency

Lower Temperature

losses

Better LIB

Lower PV Module Price Lower

Construction Cost

Lower Operation Cost

Polycrystalline Solar PV Plant

Thin-film Solar PV Plant

Key Features

Methodology

In-field

Data

Validation

Analysis

Comparison

Exercise > >

Based on the information provided from two solar PV plants in Thailand using: • Polycrystalline PV modules • Thin-film (Tandem Junction) PV modules

Compare polycrystalline and thin-film plant performance at selected four locations in Southeast Asia from: • the validated performance modelling • Plant design assumption • Financial parameter assumption

>

One-minute time-step resolution, synchronised Seven mostly clear-sky days, immediately after module cleaning These operating data were quality-checked to help ensure that only

reliable data was used for further analysis

Parameter Unit Resolution Measuring Device

Global Horizontal Irradiance W/m2 1 minute Horizontal Pyranometer

Global Inclined Irradiance W/m2 1 minute Inclined Pyranometer

Inverter Input* kW 1 minute Inverter Data Logging Device

Inverter Output kW 1 minute Inverter Data Logging Device

Ambient Temperature °C 1 minute Ambient Temperature Sensor

Module Temperature °C 1 minute Module Temperature Sensor

*Not available for Polycrystalline plant due to inadequate uncertainty level of the

measurement device at the inverter input

In-field Operating Data

Validation Analysis

PV Plant

Performance

Modelling

Validation

Analysis

+ -

Modelling Error

In-field Operating

Data

Plant Design

PV module

Laboratory Test

Result

Validation Analysis Results

Solar PV Plants using Calculated Energy compared to actual energy measured at Inverter Level

Correlation Coefficient

Polycrystalline Module 99.40% 99.49%

Thin-film Module 100.86% 99.93%

Energy output differences are within the margin of error or the metering equipment

High correlation coefficient on a one minute basis

Good agreement between Mott MacDonald’s in-house modelling and actual plant performance under the observed environmental conditions for both plants

Methodology

In-field

Data

Validation

Analysis

Comparison

Exercise > >

Based on the information provided from two Solar PV plants in Thailand using: • Polycrystalline PV modules • Thin-film (Tandem Junction) PV modules

Compare polycrystalline and thin-film plant performance at selected four locations in Southeast Asia from: • the validated performance modelling • Plant design assumption • Financial parameter assumption

>

Comparison Exercise

Four selected locations for the comparison exercise

Lopburi, Thailand

Manila, Philippines

Penang, Malaysia

Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Annual GHI (kWh/m2)

Annual Average Ambient

Temperature (°C)

Lopburi* 1,838 28.36

Penang** 1,794 27.88

Banda Aceh** 1,701 27.65

Manila** 1,779 27.85

*SERL, DEDE and TMD

** Meteonorm v7

Key Technical Assumptions

• Fixed module tilt angle is proposed for each location to maximise the irradiation

received by the fixed solar modules in each location

• Similar PV module installation capacity

• Similar AC:DC Ratio of 1:1.22

• Similar shading losses (entailing a greater land area for the thin film plant)

• Similar central inverter model, AC cable size, and transformer model;

• No soiling losses, plant outages or grid outages;

• Land is not limited; and

• Durability of the plant to perform for a project lifetime of 25 years

• Certain section of DC cable length for the thin-film plant is assumed to be twice

that of the polycrystalline module PV plant due to the larger area required for

thin-film module installation

Technical Comparison Results

1.014

1.019 1.017 1.017

1.008

1.014 1.011 1.011

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

Lopburi, Thailand Penang, Malaysia Banda Aceh,Indonesia

Manila, Philippines

Performance Ratio* Accumulated Energy over 25 Year

*Before taken into account degradation rate

Normalised modelling results of thin-film plants (relative to polycrystalline plants at each location)

Equivalent performance

to polycrystalline plants

line

Higher STC Efficiency

Lower Temperature

losses

Better LIB

Polycrystalline Solar PV Plant

Thin-film Solar PV Plant

Performance Comparison

Financial Parameter Assumptions

Financial Parameters Polycrystalline PV module installed plants

Thin-film PV module installed plants

PV module price (USD/Wp) 0.60 0.42

EPC Price excluding PV modules (USD/Wp) 1.00 1.18

Total EPC Price (USD/Wp) 1.60 1.60

CAPEX* (USD/Wp) 2.00 2.00

OPEX (USD/kWp) 54.0 55.5

OPEX Escalation Rate 4% 4%

Discount Rate 10% 10%

*Total EPC Price is assumed to be 80% of CAPEX

LCOE Comparison Results

*Before taken into account degradation rate

Normalised LCOE results of thin-film plants (relative to polycrystalline plants at each location)

Equivalent LCOE to

polycrystalline plants line

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

Lopburi, Thailand Penang, Malaysia Banda Aceh,Indonesia

Manila, Philippines

Higher STC Efficiency

Lower Temperature

losses

Better LIB

Lower PV Module Price Lower

Construction Cost

Lower Operation Cost

Polycrystalline Solar PV Plant

Thin-film Solar PV Plant

Performance Comparison

Key Findings

Thin-film PV module technology, based on this analysis, is

considered competitive in terms of technical and economic

performance at least in the Southeast Asia region.

To select the best performing PV module technology for any

specific site, Mott MacDonald continues to recommend

a dedicated study

employing where feasible a combination of available climatic conditions

PV module laboratory test results

in-field data from previous operating plants.

www.mottmac.com

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION