Polycrystalline VS Thin-film solar PV plant
in-field performance, Southeast Asia
Setta Verojporn, Mott MacDonald
Philip Napier-Moore, Mott MacDonald
Xth December 2013
Solar Energy Southeast Asia
IMPACT Arena, Bangkok, Thailand
Outline
• Mott MacDonald and Our Experience
• Polycrystalline and Thin-Film Market & Technical Status
• Methodology
• Polycrystalline and Thin-film Performance Comparison
• Key Findings
Mott MacDonald and Our Experience
• Owner’s and Independent Engineer roles for more than 1.2 GW of Solar PV plants in Thailand and SE Asia – > 700 MWp for Independent Engineer roles
– > 500 MWp for Owner’s Engineer roles
• In-depth energy yield assessment of Solar PV plants
• Factory auditor for many Solar PV manufacturers
• Dedicated “Solar team” across Thailand, India, South Africa and UK has supported over 3 GW of Solar PV projects globally
Polycrystalline and Thin-Film Market Status
Multi-Si Mono-Si Thin film Ribbon-Si
45.3 %
13.5 %
0.4 %
40.8 %
2012
Global PV production by technology in
Ref : ISE
Key influences - crystalline module market domination
Maturity of the crystalline modules technologies
Massive increase in production capacity leads to significant drop in c-Si module prices in the past few years
Generally higher efficiency for crystalline modules at Standard Test Condition (STC)
2012
Polycrystalline and Thin-Film Technical Status
Ref: NREL
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Mono-Si Multi-Si CIGS CdTe a-Si
Highest confirmed module STC efficiencies by technology in 2013
BUT! Thin-film modules are commonly known as the “better performing technology” at
high ambient temperature low irradiance conditions
Higher STC Efficiency
Lower Temperature
losses
Better LIB
Lower PV Module Price Lower
Construction Cost
Lower Operation Cost
Polycrystalline Solar PV Plant
Thin-film Solar PV Plant
Key Features
Methodology
In-field
Data
Validation
Analysis
Comparison
Exercise > >
Based on the information provided from two solar PV plants in Thailand using: • Polycrystalline PV modules • Thin-film (Tandem Junction) PV modules
Compare polycrystalline and thin-film plant performance at selected four locations in Southeast Asia from: • the validated performance modelling • Plant design assumption • Financial parameter assumption
>
One-minute time-step resolution, synchronised Seven mostly clear-sky days, immediately after module cleaning These operating data were quality-checked to help ensure that only
reliable data was used for further analysis
Parameter Unit Resolution Measuring Device
Global Horizontal Irradiance W/m2 1 minute Horizontal Pyranometer
Global Inclined Irradiance W/m2 1 minute Inclined Pyranometer
Inverter Input* kW 1 minute Inverter Data Logging Device
Inverter Output kW 1 minute Inverter Data Logging Device
Ambient Temperature °C 1 minute Ambient Temperature Sensor
Module Temperature °C 1 minute Module Temperature Sensor
*Not available for Polycrystalline plant due to inadequate uncertainty level of the
measurement device at the inverter input
In-field Operating Data
Validation Analysis
PV Plant
Performance
Modelling
Validation
Analysis
+ -
Modelling Error
In-field Operating
Data
Plant Design
PV module
Laboratory Test
Result
Validation Analysis Results
Solar PV Plants using Calculated Energy compared to actual energy measured at Inverter Level
Correlation Coefficient
Polycrystalline Module 99.40% 99.49%
Thin-film Module 100.86% 99.93%
Energy output differences are within the margin of error or the metering equipment
High correlation coefficient on a one minute basis
Good agreement between Mott MacDonald’s in-house modelling and actual plant performance under the observed environmental conditions for both plants
Methodology
In-field
Data
Validation
Analysis
Comparison
Exercise > >
Based on the information provided from two Solar PV plants in Thailand using: • Polycrystalline PV modules • Thin-film (Tandem Junction) PV modules
Compare polycrystalline and thin-film plant performance at selected four locations in Southeast Asia from: • the validated performance modelling • Plant design assumption • Financial parameter assumption
>
Comparison Exercise
Four selected locations for the comparison exercise
Lopburi, Thailand
Manila, Philippines
Penang, Malaysia
Banda Aceh, Indonesia
Annual GHI (kWh/m2)
Annual Average Ambient
Temperature (°C)
Lopburi* 1,838 28.36
Penang** 1,794 27.88
Banda Aceh** 1,701 27.65
Manila** 1,779 27.85
*SERL, DEDE and TMD
** Meteonorm v7
Key Technical Assumptions
• Fixed module tilt angle is proposed for each location to maximise the irradiation
received by the fixed solar modules in each location
• Similar PV module installation capacity
• Similar AC:DC Ratio of 1:1.22
• Similar shading losses (entailing a greater land area for the thin film plant)
• Similar central inverter model, AC cable size, and transformer model;
• No soiling losses, plant outages or grid outages;
• Land is not limited; and
• Durability of the plant to perform for a project lifetime of 25 years
• Certain section of DC cable length for the thin-film plant is assumed to be twice
that of the polycrystalline module PV plant due to the larger area required for
thin-film module installation
Technical Comparison Results
1.014
1.019 1.017 1.017
1.008
1.014 1.011 1.011
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
Lopburi, Thailand Penang, Malaysia Banda Aceh,Indonesia
Manila, Philippines
Performance Ratio* Accumulated Energy over 25 Year
*Before taken into account degradation rate
Normalised modelling results of thin-film plants (relative to polycrystalline plants at each location)
Equivalent performance
to polycrystalline plants
line
Higher STC Efficiency
Lower Temperature
losses
Better LIB
Polycrystalline Solar PV Plant
Thin-film Solar PV Plant
Performance Comparison
Financial Parameter Assumptions
Financial Parameters Polycrystalline PV module installed plants
Thin-film PV module installed plants
PV module price (USD/Wp) 0.60 0.42
EPC Price excluding PV modules (USD/Wp) 1.00 1.18
Total EPC Price (USD/Wp) 1.60 1.60
CAPEX* (USD/Wp) 2.00 2.00
OPEX (USD/kWp) 54.0 55.5
OPEX Escalation Rate 4% 4%
Discount Rate 10% 10%
*Total EPC Price is assumed to be 80% of CAPEX
LCOE Comparison Results
*Before taken into account degradation rate
Normalised LCOE results of thin-film plants (relative to polycrystalline plants at each location)
Equivalent LCOE to
polycrystalline plants line
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
Lopburi, Thailand Penang, Malaysia Banda Aceh,Indonesia
Manila, Philippines
Higher STC Efficiency
Lower Temperature
losses
Better LIB
Lower PV Module Price Lower
Construction Cost
Lower Operation Cost
Polycrystalline Solar PV Plant
Thin-film Solar PV Plant
Performance Comparison
Key Findings
Thin-film PV module technology, based on this analysis, is
considered competitive in terms of technical and economic
performance at least in the Southeast Asia region.
To select the best performing PV module technology for any
specific site, Mott MacDonald continues to recommend
a dedicated study
employing where feasible a combination of available climatic conditions
PV module laboratory test results
in-field data from previous operating plants.
www.mottmac.com
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
