Presented by Jacob Igono, Alexia Lochmann & Gaby Regalado

Are we Collapsing? A Review of Jared

Diamond’s CollapseBy Scott E. Page

Article Title:

The book’s main point:

• Reviewing the responses of historical societies to threats causing the collapse of some of them

• Mentioning environmental changes, the effects of climate change, hostile neighbors and trade partners as influences to the collapse

• Finally, comparing the fate of those historical civilizations with nowadays’ civilization, pointing out the possibility of catastrophic near-future consequences

The book’s main point:

Successful series:

Why Nations Fail (D. Acemoglu)

• Comparative method between past and present societies

• Solution: “Institutions, Institutions, Institutions”– Focus on institutions

(property rights) and politics; “markets aren’t enough”

Collapse (J. Diamond)• Comparative method

between past and present societies

• Solution: “Focus on environmental issues”– Bottom-up approach– Culture, geography

Areas where the book lacks strength:

ECONOMIC FOUNDATIONS?

Areas where the book lacks strength:

Cultural diversity

Complexity of modern societies

Technological progress

Market economies

Functioning institutions

Economic foundation

How the book is organized:

• First part: describes the collapse and survival of past civilizations

• Second part: describes how scientists reconstruct the particulars of past civilizations and climates

• Third part: “The world is a big Easter Island”• Fourth part: explains how we could save

ourselves from the Easter-Island fate

Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past

Diamond arrived at a 5 point framework

Mismanagement of Resources

Institutional and Cultural Failures Climate Change

Fewer Friends Greater Enemies

Mismanagement of Resources

Civilizations that wisely manage their resources survive.

Why weren’t these past civilizations able to sustain what they had?

If these mistakes were made in the past, could the same mistakes be made today?

Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past

Institutional and Cultural Failures

Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past

Institutional failures refer to poor choices made by institutions

Cultural failures indicate poor choices by everyone in society

Change is often slow to take effect

Climate Change

Temporary changes in weather (drought, floods, hurricanes,

etc.)

Permanent alterations to weather patterns

(mini ice age, desertification)

Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past

How do you know which is happening?

Changes take effect very slowly

vs.

GAINING ENEMIES & LOSING FRIENDS

Decrease of friendly relations with outsiders (trade) Increase in hostilities with enemies

Diamond states that this potential problems will also cause a collapse ( in base of the Scandinavian case evidence)

The author shows some lacks about this approach

Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past

Section 1: Summary

While the multiple factors may be correlated with collapse, only overharvesting is present in each collapse

Section 2: Techniques Used to find Answers

Diamond’s approach:

Reading, reading, reading

Economist’s approach:

Mathematical explanation

Economic Model used by Page

Model• Initial quantity of resources Q

• Q decreases from extraction X

• Q increases from regeneration R

Dynamics

• If natural resource is non-renewable: collapse!

• If natural resource is renewable:

– X = R leads to sustainability– X > R leads to extinction

Tools that would have Helped Diamond

Better Sampling

Instrumental Variables

Diamond chose only four civilizations for his sample.

Three of them are located on the outer reaches of inhabitable land.

Diamond based his findings on issues that were correlated with collapse, but

did not really show causality.

Section 3: Diamond’s Metaphor

Diamond makes the assertion that the world is “one big Easter

Island.”

Parallels

Cultural/Institutional failures

Climate change

Overharvesting resources

Greater Enemies/Less Friends

Section 3: The Metaphor’s Weakness

Not so Parallel

Cultural/Institutional failures

Climate change

Overharvesting resources

The world has more than one culture and we learn from

successes and failures

The past climatic events were local issues

If we were near the end of supply, it would be reflected in prices

Section 4: How to Save the Future

Option 1:The Bottom Up Approach

If everyone, of their own will, decides to start being more

environmentally conscious, it will make a difference and stave off a

collapse.

Diamond is a proponent of this.

Some of the Activities Advocated

Making environmentally responsible voting decisions

Making environmentally friendly purchases

Sharing information about companies that help or harm the

environment

Joining local organizations

Section 4: How to Save the Future

Option 2:The Market Approach

The markets are efficient. As supply decreases, the prices

associated with costly behaviors will rise accordingly.

Some of the Activities Advocated

Let the markets work

Section 4: How to Save the Future

Option 3:The Top Down Approach

The onus of getting people to make choices that are good for future generations rests in the

hands of the government.

Some of the Activities Advocated

Raising taxes on gasoline

Outlawing excessive packaging

Subsidizing clean energy and environmentally friendly homes

Mandate cleaner water

Page’s Response

The Bottom Up Approach

The Market Approach

The Top Down Approach

Not scalable

Doesn’t solve common pool resource problem, no incentives

Provides the right incentives for both individuals and markets and

effects more than local communities

Conclusion

Diamond presents a complex problem that should be addressed but his presentation suffers from a lack of economic perspective.

Thank you!