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Presented by Jacob Igono, Alexia Lochmann & Gaby Regalado
Are we Collapsing? A Review of Jared
Diamond’s CollapseBy Scott E. Page
Article Title:
The book’s main point:
• Reviewing the responses of historical societies to threats causing the collapse of some of them
• Mentioning environmental changes, the effects of climate change, hostile neighbors and trade partners as influences to the collapse
• Finally, comparing the fate of those historical civilizations with nowadays’ civilization, pointing out the possibility of catastrophic near-future consequences
The book’s main point:
Successful series:
Why Nations Fail (D. Acemoglu)
• Comparative method between past and present societies
• Solution: “Institutions, Institutions, Institutions”– Focus on institutions
(property rights) and politics; “markets aren’t enough”
Collapse (J. Diamond)• Comparative method
between past and present societies
• Solution: “Focus on environmental issues”– Bottom-up approach– Culture, geography
Areas where the book lacks strength:
ECONOMIC FOUNDATIONS?
Areas where the book lacks strength:
Cultural diversity
Complexity of modern societies
Technological progress
Market economies
Functioning institutions
Economic foundation
How the book is organized:
• First part: describes the collapse and survival of past civilizations
• Second part: describes how scientists reconstruct the particulars of past civilizations and climates
• Third part: “The world is a big Easter Island”• Fourth part: explains how we could save
ourselves from the Easter-Island fate
Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past
Diamond arrived at a 5 point framework
Mismanagement of Resources
Institutional and Cultural Failures Climate Change
Fewer Friends Greater Enemies
Mismanagement of Resources
Civilizations that wisely manage their resources survive.
Why weren’t these past civilizations able to sustain what they had?
If these mistakes were made in the past, could the same mistakes be made today?
Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past
Institutional and Cultural Failures
Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past
Institutional failures refer to poor choices made by institutions
Cultural failures indicate poor choices by everyone in society
Change is often slow to take effect
Climate Change
Temporary changes in weather (drought, floods, hurricanes,
etc.)
Permanent alterations to weather patterns
(mini ice age, desertification)
Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past
How do you know which is happening?
Changes take effect very slowly
vs.
GAINING ENEMIES & LOSING FRIENDS
Decrease of friendly relations with outsiders (trade) Increase in hostilities with enemies
Diamond states that this potential problems will also cause a collapse ( in base of the Scandinavian case evidence)
The author shows some lacks about this approach
Section 1: Collapses & Survival in the Past
Section 1: Summary
While the multiple factors may be correlated with collapse, only overharvesting is present in each collapse
Section 2: Techniques Used to find Answers
Diamond’s approach:
Reading, reading, reading
Economist’s approach:
Mathematical explanation
Economic Model used by Page
Model• Initial quantity of resources Q
• Q decreases from extraction X
• Q increases from regeneration R
Dynamics
• If natural resource is non-renewable: collapse!
• If natural resource is renewable:
– X = R leads to sustainability– X > R leads to extinction
Tools that would have Helped Diamond
Better Sampling
Instrumental Variables
Diamond chose only four civilizations for his sample.
Three of them are located on the outer reaches of inhabitable land.
Diamond based his findings on issues that were correlated with collapse, but
did not really show causality.
Section 3: Diamond’s Metaphor
Diamond makes the assertion that the world is “one big Easter
Island.”
Parallels
Cultural/Institutional failures
Climate change
Overharvesting resources
Greater Enemies/Less Friends
Section 3: The Metaphor’s Weakness
Not so Parallel
Cultural/Institutional failures
Climate change
Overharvesting resources
The world has more than one culture and we learn from
successes and failures
The past climatic events were local issues
If we were near the end of supply, it would be reflected in prices
Section 4: How to Save the Future
Option 1:The Bottom Up Approach
If everyone, of their own will, decides to start being more
environmentally conscious, it will make a difference and stave off a
collapse.
Diamond is a proponent of this.
Some of the Activities Advocated
Making environmentally responsible voting decisions
Making environmentally friendly purchases
Sharing information about companies that help or harm the
environment
Joining local organizations
Section 4: How to Save the Future
Option 2:The Market Approach
The markets are efficient. As supply decreases, the prices
associated with costly behaviors will rise accordingly.
Some of the Activities Advocated
Let the markets work
Section 4: How to Save the Future
Option 3:The Top Down Approach
The onus of getting people to make choices that are good for future generations rests in the
hands of the government.
Some of the Activities Advocated
Raising taxes on gasoline
Outlawing excessive packaging
Subsidizing clean energy and environmentally friendly homes
Mandate cleaner water
Page’s Response
The Bottom Up Approach
The Market Approach
The Top Down Approach
Not scalable
Doesn’t solve common pool resource problem, no incentives
Provides the right incentives for both individuals and markets and
effects more than local communities
Conclusion
Diamond presents a complex problem that should be addressed but his presentation suffers from a lack of economic perspective.
Thank you!