Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection

Matthew Elkins

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100

99

10,000

Matt

A Theory on Relativity

99

3

24,99925,00099?

Deterministic

Probabilistic

Definition of the Denominator

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Applied to Electricity

25,000Expected

Generation

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Probability Distribution

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Expected Margin

Margin 25%

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Reduced Margin

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Reduced Margin

Margin 5%

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Probabilities

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Reduced Margin

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~50%

Independent ProbabilityP(A) * P(B)

~50% X ~50% = ~25%

MW

Vulnerabilities

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Risk Analysis

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Increased Supply Variability

Generation OutagesTransmission OutagesFuel AdequacyMisoperations

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Increased Risk

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Increased Risk