Reshaping Cities:What can be done?

Professor Ivan Turok

Human Sciences Research Council

Outline

The national context

Diverse local contexts

Patterns and trends

Explanations

Policies

Renewed interest in spatial matters Our people still have to daily confront the impact of

urban segregation. Many still live in areas once designated for black people away from economic opportunities and civic services (President Zuma, 2010)

Spatial challenges continue to marginalize the poor … the situation has probably been aggravated since 1994, with many more people now living in poorly located settlements … The capacity of municipalities to plan effectively is a significant challenge that needs to be addressed, supported by the efforts of national and provincial government” (NPC, 2011)

The cost of living is an important contributor to wage levels. Diffuse settlement patterns and weak public transport systems undermine job search and the ‘cost of working’ (NPC, 2011)

Spatial dislocation between

jobs and population

is the key issue

The ‘spiky’ spatial economy - normal

% employed among 15-64 year olds

47%

52%

43%41%

43% 43%

29%

39%

56% 55%53%

43%

46%47%

29%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Gauteng metros Cape Town eThekwini N Mandela Secondary cities Commercial fmg Ex-Bantustans Total SA

2002 2009

Big cities have seen the biggest increase in the employment rate, despite in-

migration

Household income: major transfers to ex-Bantustans

72%68%

60%56%

39%

4%4%

8%

7%

15%

11% 15% 21%26%

35%

13% 12% 11% 11% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Gauteng metros Coastal metros Secondary cities Commercial farming Ex-Bantustans

Other/unspecified

Pensions/grants

Remittances

Salaries/wages

Population change – pressure on cities

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 2010 1995 2010

Africans Other (white,coloured, Asian)

Mill

ions

Metros

Secondary Cities

Commercial farming areas

Mostly former Bantustan

Regional inequalities translate into urban inequalities1. ‘Regional’ = former Bantustans versus

metropolitan areas

2. ‘Urban’ = townships versus suburbs

‘Adjustment’ via migration and commuting is

very normal but complicated in SA

As a result, spatial frictions compound poverty and inequality1. Distance from jobs – ‘spatial mismatch’

Exclusion from well-located land

RDP housing policy

Transport subsidies to workers

2. ‘Area effects’ of concentrated poverty

Inferior basic services

Other facilities under extreme pressure

Vulnerability to fire, crime, disease

Social networks & access to information

Peer effects & socialisation

Impedes upward mobility – inter-generational

Size of economic node (Source: Sinclair-Smith & Turok)

Location of growth (2001-05)(Source: Sinclair-Smith & Turok)

Where workers live

Location is highly contested – Mitchells Plain

Location of population

Location of jobs

Source: Gerbrand Mans, CSIR

Transport, storage and communication

Manufacturing

Finance, insurance, real estate

Wholesale, retail, motor repair, hotels, restaurants

Community, social, government personal services

Spatial dislocation matters for the economy and environment too Imbalance creates excess travel & congestion

Cost of transport subsidies

Dispersed bulk infrastructure

Overheated property markets

Adverse environmental impacts

Cost of regular township disasters

Weaker place attachment, asset investment

Explanations

Housing

Employment

Transport subsidies

Reasons for poorly located housing Low household incomes relative to cost of land

Existing property owners fear of shacks

Constitutional property rights

Passive public sector land owners

Better availability of greenfield sites

Lower cost of developing greenfield sites

Lack of creativity in house-building industry &

among planners & regulators(?)

Reasons for remote employment locations Inertia in established employment centres

Central locations to maximise labour pool via

public transport

Shared services and infrastructure

Maintaining property values

Concerns about safety and security

Proximity to home of business owners

Sheer prejudice and herd instinct!

Policy responses

1. People closer to the jobs Subsidised well-located land & housing Acceptance, gradual upgrading & expansion

of well-located informal settlements Support services to enable labour market

and progression – info, advice, skills, childcare Mixed-use development & cross-subsidies Wider spectrum - housing ladder

Policy responses

2. Jobs closer to the people Township economic development with

priority area status in and around Land, infrastructure, premises Small business advice & financial support Public procurement & supply chain devt. Public Works & Community Works Prog. Need + potential

Policy responses

3. Improved public transport systems Efficient, low cost commuting Densification of transport corridors to knit

together the built environment Active zoning, incentives, guidance

Big opportunity with devolution of housing

and transport powers to the metros (& SPLUMB?)

Can you rise to the challenge?

3 forms of spatial planning ‘Spatially-blind’ - neutral

Not explicit, reactive to market & events

Reproduces dislocations and inequalities

‘Spatial targeting’ – concerted government action

Coordinated infrastructure, regulation, incentives …

Parachuting in, big projects, not embedded/sustainable

‘Integrated place-based’ - horizontal & vertical alignment

Driven by local needs and potential, local energy and initiative

Building indigenous capabilities, developing linkages, partnership,

negotiating transitions to green and inclusive economy

More research

Changing employment locations (by sector etc)

Shifting population (by skill, age, gender etc)

Changing land-use patterns

Underlying drivers

Creative use of planning & infrastructure

policies