Post on 28-Mar-2015
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Richard D. RosenRichard D. Rosen
Senior Advisor for Climate Research
Jin HuangJin HuangDeputy DirectorDeputy Director
Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections ProgramModeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program
Climate Program OfficeClimate Program Office
WGNE-26/GMPP-12Tokyo, Japan
October 18, 2010
NOAANOAA
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Office of Oceanic Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric and Atmospheric Research (OAR)Research (OAR)
Climate Climate Program Program
OfficeOffice
National Ocean Service (NOS)
National Environmental
Satellite, Data & Information Service
(NESDIS)
National Weather Service (NWS)
National Marine Fisheries Service
(NMFS)
NOAA’s Climate Program Office
A Strategic Approach to Climate Programs
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NOAA Labs & NOAA Labs & CentersCenters
NOAA NOAA Climate Climate Program Program
OfficeOfficeExternal External
institutional institutional relationshipsrelationships
Competitive Competitive GrantsGrants
CPOCPO integratesintegrates and coordinates Federal, academic, private, and international partners into aand coordinates Federal, academic, private, and international partners into a comprehensivecomprehensive, , strategic approachstrategic approach to providing climate research and services for the nation.to providing climate research and services for the nation.
Strategic linkagesStrategic linkages
Strategic linkagesStrategic linkages
Strategic linkagesStrategic linkages
CPO Grant Programs
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Select CPO Funding Opportunities FY2011
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Transitioning to the Climate Service
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Proposed Climate Service
NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan
Long-term goal: Climate Adaptation and MitigationOBJECTIVES (in review)
• Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts
• Assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service, and stewardship decisions
• Mitigation and adaptation choices supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services
• A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions
Climate Service: Vision and Mission
Vision Statement
• By providing science and services, the NCS envisions an informed society capable of anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts
Mission Statement
• Improve understanding and prediction of changes in climate and promote a climate-resilient society
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
Climate Service: Core Capabilities Address Societal Challenges
U.S. Climate Modeling Initiatives
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•U.S. Global Change Research ProgramoDeveloping new strategic plan to replace current (2003) one
emphasis on end-to-endoutreach activities to seek input over next year
oEstablishing a working group on modelingco-chaired by NOAA, NSF, and DOE
•Earth System Prediction CapabilityoWorkshop held 7-10 September to:
establish initial vision and goals for a program to collaborate on the development and operational implementation of a national ESPC: aspirational goal=0 days to 30 yearsidentify scientific and technical challenges U.S. agency participants: Navy, NOAA, NASA, DOE, plus university observers
U.S. Climate Modeling Initiatives (cont.)
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•National Academy of Sciences/BASC study on “A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling”
oHigh-level analysis to develop a strategic framework for improving U.S. capability to simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial time scalesoIntended audience: researchers, federal agencies, national decision makers, and others to develop a shared vision of what the ‘next generation’ of climate models should look likeoTwo-year study; committee now being formedoFunded by Intelligence Community, DOE, NOAA, Navy, NASA
•Related ActivitiesoWCRP-UNESCO Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events [27-29 September 2010, Paris]
How well do climate models reproduce past extreme events?How well do operational models predict extreme events?What climate model output should be archived to assess the likelihood of future extreme events?
Climate Process Teams
Goal: to accelerate development of global climate models and reduce uncertainties by bringing together theoreticians, field program scientists, process modelers, and modeling centers.
NOAA and NSF funded four CPTs for FY10-12:
1. Bretherton, Teixeira, Mechoso, Park (NCAR), Pan (NCEP), and Klein (LLNL): Improving the representation of the stratocumulus to cumulus transition in climate models
2. Larson, Donner (GFDL), Golaz, and Ming: Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to indirect effect
3. MacKinnon and Hallberg (GFDL): Representing internal-wave driven mixing in global ocean models
4. Jin and Hallberg (GFDL): Ocean mixing processes associated with high spatial heterogeneity in sea ice and the implications for climate models