Russ Johnson - Understanding Disasters: Geospatial Technologies in Risk Reduction and Disaster...

transcript

Plenary Session 4 Understanding Disasters: Geospatial Technologies in Risk Reduction and Disaster Management

GLOBAL RISK FORUM

GRF DAVOS

“From Thought to Action”

Director of Public Safety

Russ Johnson

Principal Consultant

DTS Wildfire

Dr. Joaquin Ramirez

Knowing the Enemy Geospatially

GIS Analyst/Rapid Mapping Expert

UNOSAT -

United Nations Institute for Training and Research

Wendi Pedersen

Satellite Analysis for Disaster Monitoring and Response

Science Advisor

Pacific Disaster Center

Dr. Heather Bell

Geospatial Technologies for Understanding Risk

Emergency Management Industry Manager

Senior Public Safety Solutions Engineer

Ryan Lanclos

Jeff Baranyi

GIS and Disaster Management :

“Building a Common Operating Platform”

I need a Map.

Maps help us relate and understand…

…filter away the noise.

2008 VP Debate

Tampa Super Bowl

Commonwealth

Kentucky

Univ of Alabama

City of Houston

Virginia - VIPER Obama Inauguration

Golden Guardian Exercise

BP Oil Spill

Apps help us relate and understand…

…filter away the noise.

I need knowledge.

I need knowledge…

• Are we prepared?

• Where are we vulnerable?

• Can we support damage assessment?

• What is the current situation?

• What are our partners doing?

• Are we talking to the public?

Answer the need for knowledge…

A Common Operating Platform

Supporting the Emergency Management Lifecycle…

Response Recovery

Empower everyone… Supporting the Mission

Planning &

Mitigation

Planning and

Analysis

Management

Mobility

Situational

Awareness

Citizen

Engagement

Incident Command System (ICS)

National Response Framework - ESF

Mission Specific Maps and Apps

Logistics

Command

Operations

…Aligning with EM workflows

PIO Logistics Command Operations

Alignment

National Response Framework

ESF 1- 15

Common Operating Platform…

…that answers the need for knowledge.

Existing Systems

Planning &

Analysis

Desktop

Tablets

Smart Phones

Web Sites

Online

Browsers

Social Media

Platform

Empower Everyone…

…everywhere.

Transform information into knowledge to action.

GIS for Disaster Management

• Reference Architecture

• Common Repository Tools and Data

• Mission Specific Templates

• Open and Extensible

• Empowers the Organization

Common Operating Platform

Operation Scenario

• Daily Operations for Preparedness

• M 7.7 Earthquake

• Multi-Agency Response

Commonwealth of Kentucky

New Madrid Seismic Zone

Emergency Management Roles

• Watch Officer

• Planning Officer

• Assessment Team

• PIO

• GIS Specialist

Data Management

• Collect

• Manage

• Collaborate

• Operationalize

Planning and Analysis

• Vulnerability Analysis

• Collaborate

• Prepare

Field Mobility

• Enable Workflows

• Align to Mission

• Update in Real Time

Citizen Engagement

• Communicate

• Connect

• Engage

Situational Awareness

• Aligned to Organization

• Mission Specific Apps

• Enhanced Situational Awareness

• Disaster Management

- Common Operational Picture

- Damage Assessment

- Maps

- Flood Planning

- Citizen Service Request

- Special Events

• Fire

- Run Book

- Station Wall Map

- Pre-fire Planning

• Humanitarian

- OpenStreetMap Editor, Ushahidhi Add-in

Public Safety Resource Center Templates to help you get started

GIS for Disaster Management Workshop

• Tuesday - 6:30pm – 7:15pm Dischma Room

• Wednesday - 7:15pm – 8:00pm Dischma Room

• Abstract:

- Learn best practices and resources to implement GIS in

support of disaster management.

- Topics will include:

- Configure your Flex Viewer for Situational Awareness

- Deploy GIS in a mobile environment

- Getting Started with ArcGIS Online

- Baseline Template resources for common disaster management

workflows

Summary

• Focus on a Common Operating Platform

• Empower the Organization

• Align with the Mission

• Answer the need for Knowledge.

Planning and

Analysis

Management

Mobility

Situational

Awareness

Citizen

Engagement

Principal Consultant

DTS Wildfire

Dr. Joaquin Rameriz

knowing the

geospatially NEAR-REALTIME WILDFIRE

SIMULATIONS TO SUPPORT

Dr Joaquin Ramirez

DTSWildfire Tecnosylva

Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response System at NASA/GSFC http://youtu.be/eET7jwJOOqA

750 m€ fire

season

160.00

0 ha lost

480 m€ losses

MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE

28/06/2012 11:35

29/06/2012 12:05

FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARS

BURNT AREA: 11.770 ha

30/06/2012 11:10

FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARS

BURNT AREA: 24.012 ha (+9.143)

FIRE: ANDILLA

BURNT AREA: 5.371 ha

11 km diameter

fire ball

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_

statistics.html

Where do we go Fire scenarios from 2010 to 2070 (ATSR Fire Atlas based)

Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Van Dorn J, Hayhoe K, 2009. Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLoS ONE 4(4): e5102. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102

Climate projections include 2010–2039 (A,), 2040–2069 (B) and 2070–2099 (C).

Changes in the global distribution of fire-prone pixels under the A2 (mid-high) emissions scenario

Fire Paradox

The better

we are

fighting

fires, the

bigger

those we

cannot win

If you know

yourself and

your enemy,

you can win a

hundred

battles

without

jeopardy. SunTzu, Art of War

600 BC

The Art of

War by Sun

Tzu, 600 BC

FB: A YOUNG

SCIENCE Harry T. Gisborne

First true

specialist in

forest fire

research in

the US

Jack S. Barrow

Director

of the

Missoula

Fire Lab The Mann

Gulch Fire

(1949)

http://goo.gl/amuxP

topography

weather

http://goo.gl/WkiKO

= extreme

behavior

The science

and art of

Fire Sim Where is it going to be in the next

hours?

When can we expect to stop it?

What is the risk to this community?

All this question

have an spatial

answer

Models are out

there Models completed in period 1990-

12 Physical

7 quasi-physical

15 empirical

5 quasi-empirical

11 simulation

22 mathematical analogous Andrew L. Sullivan

Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007 International Journal of Wildland Fire

Volume 18 Number 4 2009

We need to take sims

from the lab…

LANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEC http://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtml

to the operation

personnel…

to the Incident

Command Post …

… to support

safer operations

Users expect

relevant

information

progres

Ignition points

from fire

department CADs

progres

Immediate

results where

the fire will

arrive in the

next few hours

evacuat

risk on

vulnerable

assets (homes,

power lines, …)

evacuat

Allows

preparedness

planning for

evacuation

purposes

On scene inmediate analysis on megafires www.wildfireanalyst.c

FAST iStock_000000525414

INTUITIVE mylesdgrant/5434978427

POWERFUL toptechwriter/338573258

Users expect

WILDFIREMAPS.COM BURNENGINE

hoyvinmayvin/516609595

BURNE ENGINE RESULTS

On scene inmediate analysis on megafires www.wildfiremaps.com

Whitewater-

Baldy Complex

Kristen Allison

BLM FBAN Type 1

100.000 ha

550 km

MEXICO

simulating

from IR

imagery

simulating

from IR

imagery

La Jonquera 13.000 ha / 4

Strategic

analysis in 20

Marc Castellnou

Analyst Chief

Catalonian Firefighters

accurate information for better

decission making

accurate information for better

decission making

60 % resources reallocated

based on the simulation

Office: +1 905.727.8352 Mobile: +1 970.213.4635

dtswildfire.com | dtsgis.com

Office: +34 987.849.486 Mobile: +34 696.922.909

www.DTSwildfire.com www.fiRESPONSE.com www.WildfireMaps.com www.WildfireAnalyst.com

More Information

It pays to

know the

not least because at some time you may have the opportunity to

turn him into a friend

Margaret Thatcher

GIS Analyst/Rapid Mapping

Expert

UNOSAT -

United Nations Institute for

Training and Research

Wendi Pedersen

Satellite Analysis for Disaster Monitoring and Response

Presentation to Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 8 February 2012

Wendi Pedersen

4th International Disaster and Risk Conference 2012, Davos Switzerland

UNOSAT: A Centre of Excellence for Satellite Analysis

UNOSAT is the Operational Satellite Applications Programme of UNITAR – entirely

dedicated to researching and applying solutions for satellite derived geospatial

information, integrated systems (GIS, navigation, and geo-positioning), and

knowledge transfer

Launched in 2000 as a project, it has evolved into a mature UN Centre of Excellence

with global outreach supported by a network of partners worldwide,

UNOSAT means over 1000 maps/analyses since 2000, tasking in over 250 disasters,

emergencies & conflicts; professional training; research & methodology

CERN support :30,000 core computing cluster , unlimited IT power and data storage

GIS as a resource

Illustration

Planning and operations (HQ vs.

Field )

Up to date and cost effective

Web-based, in the cloud, real-time

GIS as an enabling environment

Enables information to flow through emergency cycle phases and clusters

Readily available and inter-operable : one image is worth 1000 words

The “power of where” and the geospatial dimension as analytical tool

A solution capable of generating information management processes

TRENDS

UNOSAT - AREAS OF OUTPUT

Humanitarian Aid and Relief Coordination

• Crisis & Situational Mapping

• Damage assessment

Human Security

Monitoring

Human Rights

Safety and Security

Territorial Planning and Monitoring

Capacity Development & Technical Assistance

In-country project development

UNOSAT rapid mapping by type of emergency 2011

Floods 29%

Earthquakes 3%

Storms 11%

Volcanic activities 3%

Landslides 3%

Technical/Chemical 4%

Tsunamis 4%

Complex 36%

Exercises 7%

Pakistan Floods 2010

Inhabitable or

destroyed homes

Damaged

infrastructure

Economic damage,

agriculture loss

Section of Hunza Lake 2010

Hunza Landslide: January 4th 2010

A massive landslide blocked the Hunza river near Attabad in Gilgit-Baltistan

creating a natural dam that retained river water during the glacial melt season.

Blocked flow of the Hunza River for 5 months.

16.37km of Karakoram Highway (KKH) Flooded

As of 31st May lake size ~ 875 ha

Hunza Landslide 2010 105

Flood progression

15th May 2010 21st May 2010 31st May 2010

Pakistan flooding 2010 Natural aspects

Event start: End of July

Heavy rainfall in northern Pakistan

(Monsoon)

Flood extents from Swath valley to the

Arabic Sea

More than 37.000 Km2 of inundated land

Precipitated Water > Carrying capacity of

Indus River

Operational aspects

Multiscale analysis

MODIS, Radar, Optical

Different scale products delivered to end

Pakistan flooding 2010 – Human impact (18th August)

Sukkur Barrage causes retaining

water further upstream

Start of

Overflow

Progress within 10 days

120 – 150km

prognosis

for the next

Flooding further downstream

Large Cities like Jacobabad are affected

Highly dynamic flooding

extent clearly required

more rapid and diverse

analysis report products

Multiple single page A4

“Situational Update” reports

produced with satellite

imagery usually acquired

same day

More focus on describing

current status in near real

time and even trying to

estimate flood movement in

next 48hrs

6) Comprehensive

time series of flood

datasets allowed

additional products

Final flood water

analysis was conducted

in October 2010

(Disaster started in late

July!)

• Multi-temporal analysis; disaster imagery

& archive imagery

• Use of multiple sensors to get the fullest

coverage of affected areas

• Deliverables given to end users were all

vectors derived from imagery analysis

Satellite Image Final Vector output

Terrasar-X from 21st September 2011

115 Satellite-derived Information

Information from regional-scale images

Flood extent

RADARSAT

Mekong River (Cambodia), 2008-floods

dits: U

Reference image Disaster image Flood interpretation

New Product type request

from Local and

international agencies for

a Cumulative Maximum

Flood Water Extent

Dynamically combined all

flood water extents from

multiple dates and locations

into a single dataset

Continuously updated as

flood waters moved further

south inundating new areas

over one month after start of

disaster event

UNOSAT Satellite-derived maximum flood water

extent (July –October 2010) = 37,500km2

(controlled for normal pre-flood water extent

of rivers, reservoirs, lakes, etc. )

Total area of Pakistan = 796,662km2

(excluding Jammu Kashmir)

Conflict between Media, Government and Satellite-Based Estimates of the Pakistan Flooding Extent:

“20% or 1/5th of Pakistan”

“As large as England”

“approximately 130.000 Km2”

20 % of Pakistan

Relative comparison of inundated area

Total flood inundated area,

within 5 weeks, is according to UNOSAT

analysis 4.7% of the country.

Baseline geographic data combined with satellite imagery – Pakistan floods 2010

Google Map Maker Data for Pakistan

UNOSAT Flood

Water Analysis

Impact: Detailed and comprehensive preliminary damage analysis, feedback into DRR

Pakistan flooding 2010 Human impact GIS Analysis

Cross-referencing with other data-sets allows more detailed analysis

beyond natural impact

Quantifying the impact on population is still difficult

populated places are available but no accurate pop. Figures

Also documenting the impact on infrastructure (bridges, roads, hospitals...)

Flood extent data sharing

Social media integration, improved understanding, validation

Automatic geo-positioning and mapping of photos,

videos, text, voice (Android+)

Cost-efficient solutions (smart compression)

Tested in exercises, used in Haiti, Nigeria, Pakistan,

Thailand

GPS cameras, mobile phones (Android, iPhone)

Download the ASIGN Android App

www.geo-pictures.eu

Moving Forward Beyond Disaster Response

Disaster Risk Reduction capacity building

Increase in number of training courses in GIS and disaster risk reduction & response

Copenhagen, Nigeria, Costa Rica

Land-use analysis

Environmental impact analysis

Infrastructure Data

Roads, urban extents, ect. in remote areas where

disaster risk and vulnerability is high

In-country capacity development Activities

knowledge of

the territory

(information

gathering)

identification and

assessment of the

current situation

and trends (SWOT

analysis)

definition of a local development

strategy according to the diagnostic

implementation and evaluation

and monitoring

awareness phase analytical phase implementation and good

governance phase

Where are things located ? Where should they be ? How to move them?

Strategic territorial planning & management

PREPAREDNES DIAGNOSTIC PLANNING IMPLEMENTATION AND FOLLOW UP

Geographic Information System

Thank you for your kind attention!

Questions?

Our services www.unitar.org/unosat

Your questions wendi.pedersen@unitar.org

Science Advisor

Dr. Heather Bell

Presented By: Heather Bell, PhD

International Disaster Risk Conference 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland

Fostering Disaster-Resilient Communities through Information, Science, Technology and Exchange

DisasterAWARE

Risk and Vulnerability Assessment at PDC

Security and Sustainability through the Support of Disaster Risk

Reduction

Human-Environment

System

Components of Disaster

Vulnerability

of Exposed

Elements

Hazard

Characteristics

In Exposed Area

Coping Capacity

of Exposed

Elements

Level of

Disruption

Beyond

Ability to Cope

Connectivity

Exposure/

Affected Area

PDC Addresses Each of these Components –

Singly and in Combination

Global Risk Assessment Project National Level Risk

Assessment for Globe Data and Results

Integrated Into PDC’s Applications

Support Familiarization and DM Decision Making

Visualize and Interact with Contextual Data at Multiple Levels

Make Relevant Contextual Data Easily Available in Multiple Forms

PDC’s DisasterAWARE

Integrated Multi-Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning

Integrated Modeling

Dynamic Data

Historical Hazards

Assets, Infrastructure and Population Data

Automated Reports

Information Sharing

Mobile Apps

Assessment Approach

Multi-Hazard Risk is average of Multi-Hazard Exposure, Vulnerability and Lack of Coping Capacity

Multi-Hazard Exposure based on estimated average annual exposure of GDP and Population to EQ, Tsunamis, Floods and Tropical Cyclone Winds

Vulnerability and Capacity considered hazard independent

Composite Index approach allows drill down into drivers of Hazard Exposure, Vulnerability and Coping Capacity

Multi-Hazard

Exposure

• Raw Exposure

• Pop

• GDP

• Relative

Exposure

• Pop

• GDP

Vulnerability

• Health Status

• Access to Clean

• Access to Info

• Economic

Constraints

• Marginalization

• Population

Pressures

• Environmental

Stress

• Recent Impacts

• Displaced

Populations

Coping

Capacity

• Governance

• Economic

Strength

• Infrastructure • Comms

• Transport

• Healthcare

• Environmental

Strength

Global RVA Components

GNI per capita

Reserves per Capita

Economic

Strength

Political Stability

Control of Corruption

Voice and

Accountability

Rule of Law

Government

Effectiveness

Strength of

Government Infrastructure

MH Exposure Coping Capacity Vulnerability

Environmental

Strength

% Protected Area

Marine

Average Biome

Protection

% Protected Area

Terrestrial

Hospital Beds per

10,000 persons

Physicians per 10,000

persons

Nursing & Midwifery

per 10,000 persons

Airport & Seaport

Density

Road and Railroad

Density

DM Social Media Scale

Fixed & Mobile phone

subscriptions per 100

persons

Secure Internet Servers

per million people

Healthcare Transportation Communications

Global RVA Index Approach

Risk Component Index:

Coping Capacity

Sub-Component

Index: Infrastructure

Indicator: Hospital Beds

per 10000

Sub-Index: Health

Care Capacity

Example Scenario

What’s Going on?

Of the Countries “Affected” by the Tsunami, Which Might Be Least Capable of Dealing with the Effects?

Do We Have the Right Resources?

Who Might Be Left Out of Response or Recovery Processes?

Is the Outreach Approach Appropriate?

What About School Based Campaigns?

Questions?

Fostering Disaster-Resilient Communities Through

Information, Science, Technology, and Exchange

PDC 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2, Kihei, Hawaii 96753 http://www.pdc.org, info@pdc.org 1-808-891-0525 - 1-808-891-0526 (Fax) DisasterAWARE

University of Hawaii: Managing Partner

Heather Bell, PhD

Science Advisor

Editor-in-Chief, Risk,

Hazards & Crisis in Public

Policy

808.891.7942

hbell@pdc.org

www.pdc.org

www.psocommons.org/rhcpp

Might Water Bourne Disease Be Exacerbated?

Is the Population Already Unhealthy?

Can the Health System Likely Handle an Emergency?

What about other Impacts of Disaster?

Do We Have the Right Supplies?

Who Might Be Left out of Response and Recovery Processes?

Is the Outreach Approach Appropriate?

What about School Based Campaigns?

What about Format?

THANK YOU !