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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Decision Support for the
Even Swaps Process with
Preference Programming
Jyri MustajokiRaimo P. Hämäläinen
Systems Analysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
www.sal.hut.fi
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Outline• The Even Swaps process
• Hammond, Keeney and Raiffa (1998, 1999)
• Smart-Swaps web software• The first software for supporting the Even
Swaps method• Support for different phases of the decision
analysis process• A new combined Even Swaps / Preference
Programming approach• Helpful suggestions for the decision maker how to
proceed with the process
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Even Swaps
• Multicriteria method to find the best alternative
• An even swap:• A value trade-off, where a consequence
change in one attribute is compensated with a comparable change in some other attribute
• A new alternative with these revised consequences is equally preferred to the initial one
The new alternative can be used instead
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Elimination process
• Carry out even swaps that make• Alternatives dominated (attribute-wise)
• There is another alternative, which is equal or better than this in every attribute, and better at least in one attribute
• Attributes irrelevant• Each alternative has the same value on this
attribute
These can be eliminated
• Process continues until one alternative, i.e. the best one, remains
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Practical dominance
• If alternative y is slightly better than alternative x in one attribute, but worse in all or many other attributes x practically dominates y y can be eliminated
• Aim to reduce the size of the problem in obvious cases• Eliminate unnecessary even swap tasks
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Example
• Office selection problem (Hammond et al. 1999)
Dominatedby
Lombard
Practicallydominated
byMontana
(Slightly better in Monthly Cost, but equal or worse in all other attributes)
78
25
An even swap
Commute time removed as irrelevant
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Smart-Swaps softwarewww.smart-swaps.hut.fi
• Support for the PrOACT process (Hammond et al., 1999)• Problem• Objectives• Alternatives• Consequences• Trade-offs
• Trade-offs carried out with the Even Swaps method
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Problem / Objectives / Alternatives
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Consequences
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Support for the Even Swaps process
• Information about what can be achieved with each swap
• Notification of dominated alternatives and irrelevant attributes
• Attribute-wise rankings indicated by colors• Process history• Backtracking of the actions Sensitivity analysis
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Support for the Even Swaps process
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Making an even swap
• Software warns the user if s/he is going to make the swap into ‘wrong direction’
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Process history
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
A Preference Programming approach to support the process
• Even Swaps process carried out as usual• The DM’s preferences simultaneously
modeled with Preference Programming• Intervals allow us to deal with incomplete
information about the DM’s preferences• Trade-off information given in the even swaps
can be used to update the model
Suggestions for the Even Swaps process• Generality of assumptions of Even Swaps
preserved
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Supporting Even Swaps with Preference Programming
• Support for• Identifying practical dominances• Finding candidates for the next even swap
• Both tasks need comprehensive technical screening
• Idea: supporting the process – not automating it
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Decision support
Problem initialization
Updating of
the model
Make an even swap
Even Swaps Preference Programming
Practical dominance candidates
Initial statements about the attributes
Eliminate irrelevant attributes
Eliminate dominated alternatives
Even swap suggestions
More than oneremaining alternative
Yes
The most preferred alternative is found
No
Trade-off information
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Assumptions in the Preference Programming model
• Additive value function• Not a very restrictive assumption
• Weight ratios and component value functions are initially within some reasonable bounds• General bounds for these often assumed• E.g. practical dominance implicitly assumes
reasonable bounds for the weight ratios
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Preference Programming – The PAIRS method
• Imprecise statements with intervals on• Attribute weight ratios (e.g. 1/5 w1 / w2 5) Feasible region for the weights• Alternatives’ ratings (e.g. 0.6 v1(x1) 0.8)
Intervals for the overall values• Lower bound for the overall value of x:
• Upper bound correspondingly
n
iiii xvwxv
1
)(min)(
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Pairwise dominance
• x dominates y in a pairwise sense if
i.e. if the overall value of x is greater than the one of y with any feasible weights of attributes and ratings of alternatives
0])()([min1
n
iiiiii
wyvxvw
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Using Preference Programming to support Even Swaps
• Bounds for the weight ratios
• Bounds for the ratings• Modeled with exponential
value functions• Any monotone value functions
within the bounds allowed• Additional bounds
for the min/max slope
jirw
w
j
i ,,
1
0 xi
vi(xi)
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Use of trade-off information
• With each even swap the user reveals new information about her preferences
• This trade-off information can be utilized in the process
Tighter bounds for the weight ratios obtained from the given even swaps
Better estimates for the values of the alternatives
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Modeling practical dominance with Preference Programming
• An alternative which is practically dominated cannot be made non-dominated with any reasonable even swaps
• Analogous to pairwise dominance concept in Preference Programming
Any pairwisely dominated alternative can be considered to be practically dominated
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Candidates for even swaps
• Aim to make as few swaps as possible • Often there are several candidates for an even
swap• In an even swap, the ranking of the alternatives
may change in the compensating attribute One cannot be sure that the other alternative
becomes dominated with a certain swap
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Applicability index• Assume: y is better than x only in attribute i• Applicability index of an even swap, where
a change xiyi is compensated in attribute j, to make y dominated:
• Indicates how close to making y dominated we can get with this swap• The bigger d is, the more likely it is to reach
dominance
)))()()(/(
)()(min(),,(
iiiiji
jjjj
xvyvww
yvxvjiyxd
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Applicability index• Ratio between
• The minimum feasible rating change in the compensating attribute to reach dominance and
• The maximum possible rating change that could be made in this attribute
• Worst case value for d:• Bounds include all the possible impecision
• Average case value for d:• Rating differences from linear value functions• Weight ratios as averages of their bounds
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Example
Initial Range:
85 - 50
A - C
950 - 500
1500 -1900
36 different options to carry out an even swap that may lead to dominanceE.g. change in Monthly Cost of Montana from 1900 to 1500:Compensation in Client Access: d(MB, Cost, Access) = ((85-78)/(85-50)) / ((1900-1500)/(1900-1500)) = 0.20 d(ML, Cost, Access) = ((85-80)/(85-50)) / ((1900-1500)/(1900-1500)) = 0.14Compensation in Office Size: d(MB, Cost, Size) = ((950-500)/(950-500)) / ((1900-1500)/(1900-1500)) = 1.00 d(ML, Cost, Size) = ((950-700)/(950-500)) / ((1900-1500)/(1900-1500)) = 0.56 (Average case values for d used)
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
www.decisionarium.hut.fi
Software for different types of problems:• Smart-Swaps (www.smart-swaps.hut.fi)• Opinions-Online (www.opinions.hut.fi)
• Global participation, voting, surveys & group decisions
• Web-HIPRE (www.hipre.hut.fi)• Value tree based decision analysis and support
• Joint Gains (www.jointgains.hut.fi)• Multi-party negotiation support
• RICH Decisions (www.rich.hut.fi)• Rank inclusion in criteria hierarchies
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
Conclusions
• Smart-Swaps provides support for the PrOACT process with the Even Swaps method
• Modeling of the DM’s preferences in Even Swaps with Preference Programming 1. Identification of practical dominances2. Candidates for even swaps• Support provided as suggestions by the
software
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
ReferencesEven Swaps and Preference Programming: Hämäläinen, R.P., 2003. Decisionarium - Aiding Decisions, Negotiating and
Collecting Opinions on the Web, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 12(2-3), 101-110.
Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L., Raiffa, H., 1998. Even swaps: A rational method for making trade-offs, Harvard Business Review, 76(2), 137-149.
Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L., Raiffa, H., 1999. Smart choices. A practical guide to making better decisions, Harvard Business School Press, Boston.
Mustajoki, J., Hämäläinen, R.P., 2005. A Preference Programming Approach to Make the Even Swaps Method Even Easier. Decision Analysis, 2(2), 110-123.
Mustajoki, J., Hämäläinen, R.P., 2006. Smart-Swaps – Decision support for the PrOACT process with the even swaps method. Manuscript. (Downloadable at http://www.sal.hut.fi/Publications/pdf-files/mmus06b.pdf)
Salo, A., Hämäläinen, R.P., 1992. Preference assessment by imprecise ratio statements, Operations Research, 40(6), 1053-1061.
Salo, A., Hämäläinen, R.P., 1995. Preference programming through approximate ratio comparisons, European Journal of Operational Research, 82(3), 458-475.
S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology
ReferencesApplications of Even Swaps:Belton, V., Wright, G., Montibeller, G., 2005. When is swapping better than
weighting? An evaluation of the Even Swaps method in comparison with Multi Attribute Value Analysis, Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Research Paper No. 2005/19.
Gregory, R., Wellman, K., 2001. Bringing stakeholder values into environmental policy choices: a community-based estuary case study, Ecological Economics, 39, 37-52.
Kajanus, M., Ahola, J., Kurttila, M., Pesonen, M., 2001. Application of even swaps for strategy selection in a rural enterprise, Management Decision, 39(5), 394-402.
Luo, C.-M., Cheng, B.W., 2006. Applying Even-Swap Method to Structurally Enhance the Process of Intuition Decision-Making, Systemic Practice and Action Research, 19(1), 45-59.