s3.amazonaws.coms3.amazonaws.com/kcmcontent/2015/01.15/KCM-01-15.pdf · NAR 12/2014 PENDING Home...

transcript

EXISTING Home Sales

NAR 12/2014

EXISTING Home Sales

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

100 = Historically Healthy Level

NAR 12/2014

PENDING Home Sales

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

PENDING Home Sales

101.5101.2

Sep Oct Nov

2013 2014

NAR 12/2014

PENDING Home Sales

5.35.33

5.65.66

NAR Freddie Mac MBA

2014 2015

2014 Home Sales & 2015 Projections (Existing & New Construction in millions)

HOME PRICES

13.2%12.9%

4.8%4.5%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

S&P Case Shiller 12/2014

Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES

Case Shiller

3.7%3.2%

2015 2016

Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 4Q

Projected Home Appreciation

*Mean Percentage

4.95.0

5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

5.1 5.1

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Months Inventory of

HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 12/2014

Freddie Mac 12/2014

Freddie Mac

Actual Rates January 2013 – December 2014

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages

Where Are They

GOING?

2015 Projections

Where Have They

Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate

Quarter Fannie

Freddie

Mac MBA NAR

Average of all four

2015 1Q 4.0% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 4.25%

2015 2Q 4.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.38%

2015 3Q 4.2% 4.5% 5.0% 4.9% 4.65%

2015 4Q 4.3% 4.7% 5.1% 5.4% 4.88%

Mortgage Rate Projections

12/2014

5.25 $ 2,208 $ 2,154 $ 2,098 $ 2,044 $ 1,988

5.00 $ 2,148 $ 2,094 $ 2,040 $ 1,986 $ 1,932

4.75 $ 2,086 $ 2,034 $ 1,982 $ 1,930 $ 1,878

4.50 $ 2,026 $ 1,976 $ 1,926 $ 1,874 $ 1,824

4.25 $ 1,968 $ 1,919 $ 1,869 $ 1,820 $ 1,771

4.00 $ 1,910 $ 1,862 $ 1,814 $ 1,766 $ 1,719

3.75 $ 1,852 $ 1,806 $ 1,760 $ 1,714 $ 1,667

$ 400,000 $ 390,000 $ 380,000 $ 370,000 $ 360,000

-2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%

Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

Buyer’s Purchasing Power

MILLENNIALS

“By the end of 2015

millennials will become

the largest home-buying

age group…As this

generation matures, they

will become a home-buying

force to be reckoned with."

Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief Economist

“Households headed

by millennials will see

significant growth as a

reflection of economic

gains…Next year's

addition of 2.75 million jobs

and increased household

formation will be the two key

factors driving first-time buyer sales.”

Realtor.com

“Employers have started

hiring…wages may rise

for many, according

to a recent forecast

from the Hay Group,

which predicts the average

salary will rise 5.4% this year.”

Rachel Emma Silverman in the Wall Street Journal

…according to the First-Time Buyer Mortgage

Share Index by AEI’s International Center on

Housing Risk

% of all buyers were

first time buyers

“Household

formations in 2014

through September

are already at

their highest rate

since 2005.”

Neil Dutta, Head of Economics at

Renaissance Macro Research

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Median Asking

RENT since 1988

“Landlords have

ramped up rents by

the fastest pace in

six years, with

national vacancy

rates the lowest in

two decades.”

Ruth Mantell, Economics Reporter at MarketWatch

“Another increase

in total rent paid

similar to that

seen this year

isn't out of the

question. In fact,

it's probable."

Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries

30.8% More

Affordable

-19.8% Less

Affordable

More or Less Affordable?

Buy a Home

Rent a Home

…in the third quarter than it was in the pre-bubble years (1985 -1999)

15.3%17.4%

Homebuyers should expect tospend on mortgage

Likely first-time, 23-to-34-year-oldbuyers should expect to pay

Renters should expect to pay

Percentage

of Income…

Renters Homeowners

Comfortable is defined as having

extra money to go beyond each

payday and spend money on

things they want

Who is More ‘COMFORTABLE’ Financially?

Freddie Mac 12/2014

“With a 30-year fixed

rate mortgage, you'll

have the certainty and

stability of knowing

what your mortgage payment will

be for the next 30 years – unlike

rents, which will continue to rise

over the next three decades.”

Christina Boyle, SVP at Freddie Mac

LATINO FAMILIES

“Demand for housing units

increases as new immigrants

enter the economy and form

households, accelerating the

current housing recovery and

fueling growth in this sector

of the economy.”

Projected annual increase in spending

on residential construction

Impact of Immigration Reform

$68B Bipartisan Policy Center

4.95.0

5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

5.1 5.1

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Months Inventory of

HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 12/2014

The Second Time

HOMEBUYER

Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**

Today $300,000 4% $1,432.25

2015 4Q $312,000 5% $1,674.88

*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment

$242.63 Difference in Monthly Payment

Today $500,000 4% $2,387.08

2015 4Q $520,000 5% $2,791.47

Today $700,000 4% $3,341.91

2015 4Q $728,000 5% $3,908.06

Today $1M 4% $4,774.15

2015 4Q $1.04M 5% $5,582.94

July 2013 August September October November December January

February March April May June July August September October

Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)

Year-Over-Year

PRICE CHANGES

Shiller

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Months Inventory of

HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 12/2014

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Months Inventory of

HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 12/2014

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% 5.5% 5.8% 4.5% 6% 5.2% 5%

Year-over-Year

Inventory Levels

NAR 12/2014

Jan2012

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2013

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2014

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Percentage of

Distressed Property

January 2012 - Today

NAR 12/2014

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

5-9, 43 Existing & Pending Home

Sales, Foot Traffic http://www.realtor.org

10 2014 vs. 2015 Home Sales

Projections

http://www.realtor.org

http://www.freddimac.org

http://www.mba.org

12, 44, 45 Case Shiller Year-over-

Year http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller

13 Projected Home

Appreciation https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q3_2014_HPE_Survey.php

14, 36, 46,

47, 48, 49

Months Inventory, Year-

over-Year Inventory, %

Distressed Property Sales

16 30-Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

17 Mortgage Rate Projections

– Freddie Mac http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.html

18 Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_121814.pdf

http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/December_2014_public_outlook.pdfhttp://www.mortgagebank

ers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/90111_.pdf

22 Stan Humphries Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137108

23 Realtor.com Quote http://news.move.com/2014-12-04-Realtor-com-2015-Housing-Forecast-Stage-Set-for-the-Return-Of-First-Time-

Home-Buyers

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

24 Wall Street Journal Quote http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-year-new-job-read-this-first-1420157881

25 Housing Risk Study http://www.housingrisk.org/aeis-international-center-on-housing-risk-announces-first-release-of-first-time-buyer-

mortgage-share-index-fbmsi/#more-1403

26 Neil Dutta Quote http://www.mhmarketingsalesmanagement.com/blogs/daily-business-news/tag/renaissance-macro-research/

27 Median Asking Rent Graph http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

28 MarketWatch Quote http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rents-rise-at-hottest-pace-in-six-years-2014-12-17?sf6404505=1

29 Stan Humphries Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137119

30, 31 More or Less Affordable,

% of Income http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137110

32 Who is more comfortable? http://www.freddiemac.com/multifamily/pdf/mf_renter_profile.pdf

33 Christina Boyle Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/news/blog/christina_boyle/20140428_homeownership_myths.html

35 Impact of Immigration

Reform http://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/report/immigration-reform-implications-growth-budgets-and-housing

Resources

“Create content that

is meant to help

your customers,

not sell to them.” Marketo

LATINO FAMILIES

Successful lead-generation campaigns exchange

useful, relevant and compelling content

for permission to contact a qualified individual.

Content Marketing Institute

BUYERS’ GUIDE

Winter Edition

SELLERS’ GUIDE

Winter Edition

Rainmaker Content

Copyblogger

1. Solves real audience problems

2. Reflects the character, passion, &

knowledge of an authoritative person

3. Finds a fresh approach to the topic

4. Is interesting and easy to read

s3.amazonaws.coms3.amazonaws.com/kcmcontent/2015/01.15/KCM-01-15.pdf · NAR 12/2014 PENDING Home...

Documents