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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor February 2013
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Independence
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
32%
52%
16% Yes
No
Undecided
34%
55%
11% Yes
No
Undecided
All Certain to vote
Base: All = 1,003; all certain to vote = 73% (735). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
„Yes‟ change since Oct = +4% „Yes‟ change since Oct = +4%
Support for independence increased to 34% among those certain
to vote, up four points since October 2012
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base: All certain to vote = 73% (735). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
48% 61%
38% 54% 52%
61%
17%
73%
94%
73%
41% 28%
58%
28% 38%
27%
70%
15% 5%
19% Yes
No
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ SNP Labour Cons. Lib
Dem
Support for independence is highest among men, those aged 18-
24 and SNP supporters
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
50% 55% 58% 55%
39% 35% 30% 34%
Yes
No
January 2012 June 2012 October 2012 February 2013
The rise in support for independence has bucked the recent
trend
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here Support for independence – 35 year trend
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Su
pp
ort
fo
r in
de
pe
nd
en
ce
(%
)
Introduction of the poll tax
in Scotland Devolution referendum
Scottish Parliament opens
Devolution referendum
SNP form minority
government
SNP form majority
government
Edinburgh
Agreement
signed
7 7 7 7 7 7
Scottish Parliament voting
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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
41%
36%
14%
8% SNP
Labour
Others – 1%
43%
35%
13%
7% SNP
Labour
Others – 2%
All giving a voting
intention (83%)
All who are certain to
vote (65%)
Base: All giving a voting intention = 83% (841); all certain to vote = 65% (647). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
Cons.
Lib Dem
Cons.
Lib Dem
SNP lead over Labour = +5% SNP lead over Labour = +8%
The SNP has a eight point lead over Labour among those certain
to vote in a Scottish Parliament election…
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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
43%
35%
13%
7%
2%
Scottish Parliament Election
Result
Scottish Parliament Election
Result
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
… increasing the gap that had been closing throughout 2012
10 10 10 10 10 10
Satisfaction with party leaders
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Deputy First Minister/Leader of
Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/the Better Together Campaign?
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction
change
(since Oct ‟12)
7% +7% -3%
17% +17% NA
31% +8% +3%
35% +1% NA
39% -4% +5%
56% +12% +7%
6% -40% -5%
49% -7% 0%
Half of Scots are satisfied with the job that Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon
are doing, while Johann Lamont continues to improve her profile
29%
67%
16%
33%
32%
31%
33%
43%
22%
27%
28%
29%
33%
39%
50%
50%
Willie Rennie
David Cameron
Patrick Harvie
Ruth Davidson
Alistair Darling
Johann Lamont
Nicola Sturgeon
Alex Salmond
Dissatisfied Satisfied
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Deputy First Minister/Leader of
Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/the Better Together Campaign?
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction
change
(since Oct ‟12)
2% +81% +7%
15% +68% NA
6% +40% -19%
21% +39% -2%
26% +36% -5%
28% +26% -11%
33% +13% NA
Satisfaction among own party supporters
27%
23%
19%
20%
27%
9%
9%
40%
49%
55%
59%
67%
77%
90%
Alistair Darling
Willie Rennie
Ruth Davidson
Johann Lamont
David Cameron
Nicola Sturgeon
Alex Salmond
Dissatisfied Satisfied
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as Deputy First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign?
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
Don‟t know Net satisfaction
15% +57%
33% +15%
Satisfaction among own campaign supporters
26%
14%
41%
71%
Alistair Darling (among 'No' voters)
Nicola Sturgeon (among 'Yes' voters)
Dissatisfied Satisfied
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Satisfaction with party leader trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13
Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron
50%
39%
29%
22%
28%
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
27%
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Net Satisfaction with party leader trends
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13
Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron
+7 +8
-4 -7
+13
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
-40
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents
conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 4th February – 9th February 2013
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don‟t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI
@IpsosMORIScot