Sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the Arctic

transcript

C. Nayokpuk, Shishmaref, Nov 2013

H. Eicken, A. R. Mahoney, J. Jones, M. L. Druckenmiller*

Geophysical Institute & International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks

Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USAe-mail: hajo.eicken@gi.alaska.edu*Now at: USAID, Washington, D.C.

• Website with more information: seaice.alaska.edu/gi• Key publication: see press brief materials at EGU web site

Sea-ice system services & ice use

• Broad definition of ice hazards based on disruption of ice services & threats to system integrity

• Slow onset– Climate regulation– Coastal protection– Geologic agent– Subsistence activities

• Rapid onset– Marine & coastal hazard– Transportation corridor– Platform

C. Nayokpuk, Shishmaref

Masterson

• Summer ice less extensive

• Seas north of Alaska & Eastern Siberia have seen greatest change anywhere in Arctic

Large reductions in summer ice concentration (1979-2013)

NSIDC.org

September

Coastal Protection• Sea ice protects coasts

from waves & thermal subrosion of permafrost

• Alaska open water season extended by >1 wk/decade

• Increasing vulnerability of coast to fall storms

Coastal Erosion• Sea ice highly

effective sediment transport agent

• Ice export may balance input from erosion (?)

• More mobile ice & larger fetch increase entrainment & export

USGS Eicken et al., GRL, 2000

Risk: Exposure• Coastal &

offshore infrastructure

• Shipping routes• Fisheries• Local &

indigenous use: subsistence & transport

• Potential overlap of uses & hazardsseaice.alaska.edu/gi 5

Hazards & threats: Relevant sea-ice variables

Photo: Craig George

Jacob Adams Crew Trail, 2008

Assessing the state of landfast ice

2008 Barrow Ice Trails

Druckenmiller et al., 2010

Key points• Evaluations of hazards

in an ice use context to capture impacts of sea-ice change on human activities and loss of services provided by ice cover

• Rapid change requires improved tracking & prediction of hazards

• Key ice parameters Hazards Index

• Preliminary hazards survey: Hazards & maritime activities in close proximity in many areas

• Observing programs for hazards assessments require sufficient spatial resolution & sampling of extreme features

seaice.alaska.edu/gi 8

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