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S f T i i P bli O i iSurvey of Tunisian Public OpinionMarch 5-18, 2011
Willi d A i tWilliams and AssociatesSalem, Massachusetts
www.WilliamsPolls.com
Survey Specifications
• The International Republican Institute (IRI) conducted a national survey of adult Tunisians (18+ years) from March 5-18, 2011.
• Data was collected in the field by a Tunisian owned and operated marketing research firm, ELKA l i d h i i f id illi f illi d i f lConsulting, under the supervision of David Williams from Williams and Associates of Salem,
Massachusetts. • Interviewing was collected using the in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional
interviewers using a multistage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution, with random selection of households and respondents using the Kish method.
• A total of 1,293 interviews were completed yielding an overall margin of error of ± 2.78 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level.
• The male-to-female ratio of respondents was 51 percent male to 49 percent femaleThe male to female ratio of respondents was 51 percent male to 49 percent female.• The urban-to-rural ratio of respondents was 60 percent urban to 40 percent rural. • The geographic and demographic distributions conform to the most recent generally accepted
official statistics available. • Stratification is based on population distribution according to the latest census.• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for
market and social research methodologies.• Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com
Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.• This poll was conducted with support from the National Endowment for Democracy.
2
How would you say that things are going in Tunisia these days, are things going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
79%8 %
90%
79%
60%
70%
80%
40%
50%
60%
20%
30%
40%
14%
7%
0%
10%
20%
0%Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 3
How would you describe the current economic situation in Tunisia?
Very Good Somewhat Good Somewhat Bad Very Bad DK/REFe y Good So e at Good So e at ad e y ad /
4% 25% 46% 20% 5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 4
Has your household’s financial situation gotten better or worse over the last year?
Much Better Somewhat Better Somewhat Worse Much Worse Same DK/REF
8% 27% 18% 18% 31% 1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Thinking ahead to next year, do you expect your household’s financial situation to be better or worse?
2%
Much Better Somewhat Better Somewhat Worse Much Worse Same DK/REF
35% 49% 4% 6% 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com
4
5
Which answer best describes your current economic situation?
3%
1% I have trouble feeding myself andmy family and buying even themost essential things for3% gsurvival.
I have enough means forsurvival, but I do not haveenough money for extra things.
32%22%g y g
I am able to afford things likenew clothes and eating atrestaurants, but not very often.restaurants, but not very often.
I am able to afford things likenew clothes and eating out andalso support other members of
43%
also support other members ofmy family who cannot.
DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 6
Thinking about the current government, which of the following should be a top priority?p p y
Issue First Second Third TotalIssue Mention Mention Mention Total
Provide Jobs for the Unemployed 35% 32% 25% 92%
Stimulate the Economy 20% 31% 21% 72%
Organize Free and Fair Elections 30% 15% 27% 72%
Decrease the Price of Basic Goods 14% 22% 25% 61%
Don’t Know — — 2% 2%
Refused to Answer — 1% — 1%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 7
Have you heard of the three commissions created to address the issues of corruption, political reform, and human rights violations
d i th i i ?during the uprisings?
22%22%
Yes
No
78%
No
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 8
If you have heard of the commissions, how confident are you that each will work for the benefit of Tunisia? (n=1,011)
Political Reform Commission
Very Confident Somewhat Confident Not Very ConfidentNot Confident at All DK/REF
27% 29% 10% 17% 17%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Human Rights CommissionVery Confident Somewhat Confident Not Very ConfidentNot Confident at All DK/REF
27% 25% 11% 21% 16%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Corruption Commission
% % % % %
Corruption Commission
Very Confident Somewhat Confident Not Very ConfidentNot Confident at All DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com
21% 23% 14% 29% 14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
9
Now, I am going to read you a list of different types of individuals. Please tell me if that individual’s opinion has a strong influence, some influence or
has no influence on you and your opinion on current events and politics.
4%6% 6% 6%
100%
Strong Influence Some Influence No Influence DK/REF
50%
26%
70%
80%
90%
17%
5
58% 58%
50%
60%
70%
52%
22%
24% 22%30%
40%
24%
13% 14%
4
0%
10%
20%
0%Religious Leader Union Leader Political Party Leader Head of Household
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 10
Do you approve or disapprove of Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi’s resignation?Ghannouchi s resignation?
6%
S l
44%
22% Strongly approve
Approve
Disapprove
Strongly disapprove
14%
Strongly disapprove
DK/REF
14%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 11
Thinking of Tunisia’s political life, would you prefer that politics be based on religion or on secularism?
And would you say you strongly prefer (religion/secularism) or only somewhat prefer (religion/secularism)?
9%90%
100%
17%
27%
%
60%
70%
80%
Strongly on Religion
Somewhat on Religion
Somewhat on Secularism
27%
20%
30%
40%
50%Strongly on Secularism
DK/REF
21%
0%
10%
20%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 12
Thinking of Tunisia’s political life, would you prefer that politics be based on religion or on secularism?
(Urban vs Rural Areas Comparison)(Age Comparison) (Urban vs. Rural Areas Comparison)(Age Comparison)
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 13
Some would define secularism as the view that religious considerations or beliefs should be excluded from government
affairs or public education. Taking into account this definition, doesaffairs or public education. Taking into account this definition, does your answer to the previous question change? (n=216)
83% 3%
6%
2%17%
No
Strongly on Religion
Somewhat on Religion
Somewhat on Secularism
3%2%
2% Somewhat on Secularism
Strongly on Secularism
DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 14
What is the single biggest problem facing Tunisia as a whole?
IssueFirst
MentionSecond
MentionThird
MentionTotal
Unemployment 32% 28% 15% 75%
Internal Security 37% 19% 14% 70%
Living Standards 7% 13% 22% 42%
Government Corruption 7% 10% 10% 27%Government Corruption 7% 10% 10% 27%
Political Reform 8% 10% 7% 25%
Lack of Direct Foreign Investment 2% 6% 7% 15%
Health Care 1% 3% 6% 10%
Lack of Independent Media 2% 3% 4% 9%
Current Constitution 2% 2% 4% 8%Cu e t Co st tut o % % 4% 8%
Legal System 1% 3% 3% 7%
Lack of Independent Civil Society 1% 1% 3% 5%
Don’t Know 1% 1% 4% 6%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 15
How much do you trust each of the following to protect your neighborhood?
3%5%
8%1% 1%100%
A Great Deal Fair Amount Only a Little Not at All DK/REF
12%
14%
3
6%
32%
70%
80%
90%
15%
50%
60%
70%
80%72%
23%
30%
40%
30%
0%
10%
20%
0%National Army Citizen Security Groups National Police
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 16
Now I am going to read a list of issues and for each one please tell me whether you feel that the situation has gotten better, gotten
worse or stayed the same over the last year.
29% 23% 25% 8% 7% 8%Development of Independent Civil Society
Much Better Somewhat Better Same Somewhat Worse Much Worse DK/REF
6%
27%
9
14%
38%
3
47%
15%
5
18%
10%
13%
7%
7
2%
3%
Living Standards
Development of Independent Media
12%
12%
9%
30%
23%
21%
28%
32%
45%
8%
7%
9%
5%
5%
9%
17%
21%
8%
Legal Reform
Constitutional Reform
Health Care
15%
10%
29%
17%
25%
21%
11%
19%
7%
19%
%
13%
15%
l
Government Corruption
Direct Foreign Investment
19%
15%
6%
40%
38%
15%
20%
17%
36%
7%
18%
19%
5%
11%
22%
9%
2%
2%
Political Reform
Security
Unemployment
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 17
How likely is the current government to address these issues facing Tunisia?
5%3%
11%
5%
Very Likely
Somewhat Likely
43%
Somewhat Likely
Not Very Likely
Not Likely at All
39%
DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 18
I am going to read you some ideological terms; I’d like you to please tell me the political figures that come to mind.
Name Moderate (54%) Islamist (47%) Liberal (11%) Socialist (17%) Loyal to the people (46%) Corrupt (49%)
Beji Kaid Sebsi 27% 1% 1% 2% 18% —
Mohammed Ghanouchi 7% — 1% 1% 5% 2%
Ah d N jib Ch bi % % % %Ahmed Nejib Chebi 2% — 2% 1% 1% —
Mohamed Jegham — — 1% — — —
Abdelsalem Jerad — — — — — 8%
Iyadh Ben Achour — — — — — —
Ahmed Ibrahim — — 1% 1% — 1%Ahmed Ibrahim — — 1% 1% — 1%
Moncef Marzouki — — 1% 1% — 1%
Rached Ghanouchi 2% 44% — — 1% 1%
Kamel Morjane — — 1% — — 2%
Mustapha Ben Jaafar 1% — — — — —p
Sihem Ben Sedrine 1% — 1% — — —
Hamma Hammami — — 2% 7% — —
Rachid Ammar 5% — — 1% 11% —
Farhat Rajhi 4% — 1% 1% 4% —
Ahmed Mestiri 1% — 1% 1% 1% —
Foued Mebazaa — — — — 1% 1%
Maya Jeribi — — — — — —
Ahmed Friaa — — — — — —
Habib Bourguiba 1% — — — — —
Other 1% 1% — 1% 2% 32%*
* Ben Ali’s family 24%, Trabelsi’s family 4%Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 19
When do you believe that the presidential election will be held?
53%
50%
60%
40%
50%
20%
30%
5% 5%8%
6%
1% 1%2%
5%
<1%
6% 5%3%
10%
1% <1%0%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 20
*The questionnaire was finalized prior to the announcement of constituent assembly elections, and at a time when most Tunisians expected a presidential election.
Is the date that you’ve identified to organize the presidential election too soon or not soon enough?
14%11%
17%Too Soon
Not Soon Enough
Th Ri h A
58%
The Right Amount
DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 21
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for later in the year?
89%90%
100%
70%
80%
50%
60%
%
30%
40%
6%1% 3% 2%
0%
10%
20%
Very Likely Somewhat Likely Not Very Likely Not Likely at All DK/REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 22
Do you have a national identification card? If no, why not? (n=26)
98%
1%
2%
Yes
No, Lost It
N N H d O
1%
No, Never Had One
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 23
Do you have a national identification card?(Age Comparison)
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 25
Your ID card includes your registered address. Would you be happy to vote at a polling place near that address?
If no, why would you wish to vote somewhere else? (n=47)
Yes
83%
10%
3%4%
I Don't Care Where I Vote
No, Registered Address is
1%
Not Where I Live
No, Consider Myself From Another District
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 25
Do you believe that Tunisia’s next president will be someone you’ve already heard of or someone you’ve never heard of?
54%
60%
37%40%
50%
Heard Of
Never Heard Of37%
30%
40%
DK/REF
%
20%
9%
0%
10%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 26
Do you support further integration of Tunisia with the Union for the Mediterranean?
19%90%
100%
%
2%4%
8%
70%
80%
DK/REF
Have Not Heard Of10%
40%
50%
60%Strongly Oppose
Oppose
Support
57%
20%
30%
40%Strongly Support
0%
10%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 27
What languages can you read?
12%Other
73%French 73%French
37%English
96%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Arabic
4
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 28
Where are you most likely to get your local news and information?
(Allowed Three Responses)
Issue First Second Third TotalIssue Mention Mention Mention Total
Tunisian Television 69% 20% 5% 94%Radio 5% 33% 18% 56%Newspaper 3% 14% 25% 42%Internet 17% 10% 6% 33%R t P bli Pl 3% 10% 13% 26%Rumors at Public Places 3% 10% 13% 26%SMS — 1% 1% 2%Mosque — — 1% 1%Other 2% 1% 1% 4%Don’t know 1% 11% 29% 41%
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 29
Where are you most likely to get your local news and information?
(Age Comparison)(Age Comparison)
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 36
Which national newspaper do you read to get your news? (Multiple Response) n=1062
Williams and Associates●Salem, Massachusetts● www.WilliamsPolls.com 31
Which national radio station do you listen to to get your news? (Multiple Response) n=1133
Williams and Associates●Salem, Massachusetts● www.WilliamsPolls.com 32
Which national television station do you watch to to get your news? (Multiple Response) n=1281
Williams and Associates●Salem, Massachusetts● www.WilliamsPolls.com 33
Which national television station do you watch to get your news? (Age Comparison)(Age Comparison)
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 34
Do you have access to the Internet? If yes, when you do use the Internet, from where do you access it
most often? (n=625)most often? (n=625)(First Mention)
2%
No
50%
28%
49%
DK/REF
Home
Work
School50%
4%1%
2%
49% School
Mobile Phone
Other
DK
REF11%
3%1%
REF
Williams and Associates ● Salem, Massachusetts ● www.WilliamsPolls.com 35