Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:

Software Designed for Success

Bob Bramucci, Ph.D. Vice Chancellor, Technology and Learning ServicesJim Gaston, Director of IT – Academic Systems

About Us About the SOCCCD

Two-college district in southern California Approximately 41,000 students (23,000 FTES)

Two Colleges, Three Campuses Saddleback College in Mission Viejo Irvine Valley College in Irvine Advanced Technology and Education Park (ATEP)

in Tustin

SOCCCD Student Success Systems

MAP Sherpa

PredictiveAnalytics

StudentDashboard

The Problem

The Planets Align…

Progress So Far

Technology & Productivity

Moore’s Law

Computer Prices

Communications Speed

Search Time

Computers often exhibit Exponential rather than Arithmetic efficiencies

Disinvestment by States

We Can’t Get There Alone 80-90% spent on salaries + benefits in K-12

and postsecondary education limit options (we can’t realistically double the number of people)

Declining state investment Economic history shows that technology

often produces exponential changes Is increased automation the answer?

SOCCCD’s SECRETS

It’s not just what we created (an integrated suite of student success software applications)

It’s How We Built It.

SOCCCD’s Secrets

1. Student-Centered Design2. Agile Software Development

MethodsInclusiveFlexible

3. Human-Centered Allocation of Function

Student-Centered Design

Agile Software Development

Allocation of Function

Vs.

Fitts’ ListHUMANS• Complex pattern

recognition and generalization

• Judgment under uncertainty

MACHINES• Rote calculation

• Routine, repetitive, precise movements

Human-Centered Allocation of Function

We believe that simply replacing people with machines is NOT the best answer

Rather, we can allocate functions between humans and machines in a strategic way that allows people to leverage their unique human strengths--a “human-centered design” approach

SOCCCD Student Success Systems

MAP Sherpa

PredictiveAnalytics

StudentDashboard

My Academic Plan (MAP)

Create a system that provides:

Self-service guide for students to develop academic plans

Tracking system for counselors and students to monitor progress toward goals

Automated assistance to help students select classes that achieve their goals

Integration with Project ASSIST to reduce data maintenance and increase accuracy

MAP Project Goals

Design Team Counselors Students Articulation Staff

Timeline Discussions began in late 2004 Development began in Fall 2005 MAP went online on April 27, 2007

Technology Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) Integration with Project ASSIST

Process

Usage Statistics - Plans Created

From: 4/27/07 to 9/26/14

Irvine Valley College Associates

17,692

Certificate

6,329

Transfer

74,604

Saddleback College Associates

42,729

Certificate

17,302

Transfer 102,704

Total: 261,360

MAP Demonstration

Sherpa

Sherpa

So what is Sherpa?

Sherpa is a recommendation engine that guides students to make informed decisions regarding courses, services, tasks and information.

Sherpa Architecture

Recommendations

Student Profile

Trigger

Nudge

TranscriptGPAEd GoalReg ActivityCurrent ClassesStatus

Courses

Services

Information

Tasks

Timing Event

Portal News Feed Email Text To-Do List Mobile

Feedback - RatingsFeedback - Preferences

Let’s translate this into the real world…

Here is some advice for you…

?

ProfileNudge

What makes a nudge, a nudge?

Timely

Relevant Actionable

Personal

Recommendation Examples

Student Profile RecommendationNew student, not matriculated

Link to online orientation

GPA > 3.5 Link to honors programGPA < 2.0 Link to tutoring programTransfer student Courses that fulfill GE patternDoes not have academic plan

Link to MAP (academic planning tool)

Low assessment scores Recommend basic skills classesFirst time student Step-by-step instructionsReturning student Recommend classes based on

goals, success patterns and transcript details. Only display classes with an empty seat and that don’t conflict with student’s schedule

Phased Approach Phase One – Closed Class Assistance

Assists students in finding a replacement class during registration

Phase Two – Profiles and Nudges Announcements, Email, SMS, Voice-To-Text

Phase Three – Portal Refresh Calendar, To-Do List and News Feed

Phase Four – Mobile In beta release

Phase Five – Predictive Analytics In development

Phase Six – Student Success Dashboard In development

Some Promising Early ResultsClosed Class Assistant:

Has directly resulted in over 25,400 enrollments since October 2010.

Matriculation Pilot:

Probation numbers dropped 39% one month after Sherpa notification.

Results: More Engagement

Yesterday I gave an IVC “Freshman Advantage” presentation to almost 100 high school Seniors at Segerstrom High school. I have been giving these presentations for years. I cannot BEGIN to tell you the positive difference in the student’s behavior due to the Sherpa nudge. It is like they had been touched by an electrified cattle prod in a GREAT way! Students were literally crowded around me before the presentation SHOWING me the Freshman Advantage email message on their smart phone!!! They had a higher level of awareness, a feeling of more urgency to complete matriculation and a better understanding of the process.

  - Irvine Valley College Outreach Specialist

Sherpa Demonstration

Predictive Analytics

Uses

Early AlertCourse RecommendationAdaptive Learning

Machine Learning

Decision treesNeural networksBayesian networksLearning AutomataSupport Vector Machines

Three Math Models

•Global: is student predicted to fail any of his/her courses?•Specific: A,B,C,D,F grade prediction for any particular class a student might take•Regression Model

Data Scientists

Problem Structure

•Millions of movies—but you’ll only view a small subset•Thousands of courses—but the average student will only take a small subset

Matrix Factorization

Model

Student Success Dashboard

Focus on Student Success

Next Steps

ResearchScaling UpAdditional success

modules

Our Roadmap

Questions?

Bob Bramucci: rbramucci@socccd.eduJim Gaston: jgaston@socccd.edu

http://www.socccd.edu/sherpa