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SnowbeltSnowbelt to Sunbeltto SunbeltThe Migration of AmericaThe Migration of America’’s Voterss Voters
William H. FreyThe Brookings Institution & University of Michigan
www.Frey-Demographer.org
State Projected Growth, 2000State Projected Growth, 2000--20302030
Projected Growth, 2000-2030
Growth 25% or more
Growth 10% to 24%Less than 10%
Source: William Frey
Projected Regional Growth, 2000Projected Regional Growth, 2000--20302030
Source: William Frey
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
Snowbelt
Sunbelt
Electoral Vote Gains, 2000Electoral Vote Gains, 2000--20302030
Source: William Frey
Florida 9Texas 8Arizona 5California 2Nevada 2North Carolina 2Georgia 1Oregon 1Utah 1Virginia 1Washington 1
Electoral Vote Losses, 2000Electoral Vote Losses, 2000--20302030
Source: William Frey
New York -6 Iowa -1Pennsylvania -4 Kentucky -1Ohio -4 Louisiana -1Illinois -3 Missouri -1Massachusetts -2 Nebraska -1Michigan -2 New Jersey -1Alabama -1 Rhode Island -1Connecticut -1 West Virginia -1Indiana -1 Wisconsin -1
Red and Blue States, 2004Red and Blue States, 2004
Source: William Frey
Projected Red State AdvantageProjected Red State Advantage(assuming constant 2004 state victories)(assuming constant 2004 state victories)
Source: William Frey
Red Blue Advantage
2004 286 252 342012 290 248 422024 295 243 522032 303 235 68
Electoral Votes
SnowbeltSnowbelt and Sunbelt: and Sunbelt: Electoral College ChangesElectoral College Changes
Northeast and MidwestSouth and West
Red and Blue State Electoral Vote ChangesRed and Blue State Electoral Vote ChangesSnowbeltSnowbelt and Sunbelt, 2004and Sunbelt, 2004--20302030
Source: William Frey
2004 ChangeSnowbelt Red 66 -8 Blue 159 -21
Sunbelt Red 220 25 Blue 93 4
Source: William. Frey
Melting Pot, New Sunbelt, and Heartland States
New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States
Red and Blue Electoral VotesRed and Blue Electoral VotesThree America'sThree America's
Source: William Frey
2004 ChangeHeartland Red 122 -12 Blue 105 -11
New Sunbelt Red 95 12 Blue 21 2
Melting Pot Red 69 17 Blue 126 -8
Demographic Components, 2000Demographic Components, 2000--20042004(Rates per 1000)(Rates per 1000)
Source: William Frey
16
8
-6
20
-5
27
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
Immigraton
DomesticMigration
Melting Pot States: 2000Melting Pot States: 2000--04 Components04 Components
Source: William Frey
3328 25
-12
-39
7
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
California New York Texas
Immigraton
DomesticMigration
New Sunbelt: 2000New Sunbelt: 2000--04 Components04 Components
Source: William Frey
26
1815
51
20 19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Arizona Georgia North Carolina
Immigraton
DomesticMigration
Florida: 2000Florida: 2000--04 Components04 Components
Source: William Frey
26
52
24
48
-5
72
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Florida Miami Orlando
Immigraton
DomesticMigration
Heartland: 2000Heartland: 2000--04 Components04 Components
Source: William Frey
10
5
11
-11 -11
-17-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Michigan Ohio Kansas
Immigraton
DomesticMigration
Migrant Shares from California
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Arizona
Colorado
Idaho
Nevada
Washington
Oregon
Utah
Share
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution
Race Composition of Regions
55%
11%
7%
2%
25%
72%
14%
3%
2% 9%
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Source: William Frey,
80%
12%2%
2% 4%
New Sunbelt HeartlandMelting Pot
KeyBelow 12.5%12.5% - 25.0%Above 25.0%
Hispanic Concentration
Sourcc: William Frey
KeyBelow 12.6%12.6% - 25.0%Above 25.0%
Black Concentration
Source: William Frey
Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990--20032003
Source: William Frey
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
California New York
White BlackAsianHispanic
New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990--20032003
Source: William Frey
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Nevada Georgia
White BlackAsianHispanic
2000-10 Growth: Under Age 35
Source: William Frey
GT 7%
1% - 7%
LT 1%
Growth by Age, 2000-10
Source: William Frey,
-10
010
2030
40
5060
70
California Nevada Michigan
Under 2525-4445-6465+
Urban Suburban Growth: 2000Urban Suburban Growth: 2000--0404
Source: William Frey
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
MajorMetro Core
MajorMetro
Periphery
LargeMetro
MediumMetro
SmallMetro
Non Metro
MeltingPotNewSunbeltHeartland
Bush 2004 Vote by UrbanBush 2004 Vote by Urban--SuburbanSuburban
Source: William Frey
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Major MetroCore
Major MetroPeriphery
Large Metro MediumMetro
Small Metro Non Metro
Fastest Growing Counties, 2000Fastest Growing Counties, 2000--0404
Source: William Frey
Growth County Inside Metro Area
1 41.0 Loudoun Co, VA Washington DC2 38.5 Flagler Co. FL Daytona Beach3 35.4 Douglas Co, CO Denver4 35.2 Rockwall Co, TX Dallas5 34.0 Forsyth Co, GA Atlanta6 33.6 Henry Co, GA Atlanta7 33.0 Kendall Co, IL Chicago8 31.5 Newton Co, GA Atlanta9 30.2 Lincoln Co, SD Sioux Falls, SD
10 29.7 Paulding Co, GA Atlanta
Red, Blue and Purple States, 2004Red, Blue and Purple States, 2004
Source: William Frey
RedBluePurple
Red, Blue and Purple State Electoral Votes, Red, Blue and Purple State Electoral Votes, 20042004
Source: William Frey
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
RED BLUEPURPLE
Red, Blue, and Purple Counties, 2004Red, Blue, and Purple Counties, 2004
RedBluePurple
Source: William. Frey
Population in Red, Blue and Purple Population in Red, Blue and Purple Counties, 2004Counties, 2004
Source: William Frey
New Sunbelt
54%
18%
28%
Heartland
27%
27% 46%
RED BLUEPURPLE
Melting Pot
36%
38%
26%
Percent Population Change, 2000Percent Population Change, 2000--0404
Source: William Frey
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
RED BLUEPURPLE
Urban Suburban ProfilesUrban Suburban Profiles
Source: William Frey
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple
Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
Small/NonMetro
Suburb/MedMetro
Major MetroCore
New Sunbelt: 2000New Sunbelt: 2000--04 Components04 Components
Source: William Frey
13
2318
39
-35
22
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
RED BLUE PURPLE
Immigraton
DomesticMigration
Heartland: 2000Heartland: 2000--04 Components04 Components
Source: William Frey
6
14
710
-31
-3
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
RED BLUE PURPLE
Immigraton
DomesticMigration
Race ProfilesRace Profiles
Source: William Frey
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Red
Blu
e
Pur
ple
Red
Blu
e
Pur
ple
Red
Blu
e
Pur
ple
Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
Hispanic
Asia/Othr
Black
White
New Sunbelt New Sunbelt SubregionsSubregions: Race Profiles: Race Profiles
Source: William Frey
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Red
Blu
e
Pur
ple
Red
Blu
e
Pur
ple
Red
Blu
e
Pur
ple
Southwest Northwest South
Hispanic
Asia/Othr
Black
White
New Sunbelt Race Growth 2000New Sunbelt Race Growth 2000--0404
Source: William Frey
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Red Blue Purple
WhiteBlackAsianHispanic
US: Race Profile Comparisons, 2004US: Race Profile Comparisons, 2004
Source: William. Frey
68%
White Black Hispanic Asian Other
Total Voters
79%
Hispanics: 2004 Total Hispanics: 2004 Total vsvs Voter Shares Voter Shares
4537
3329
23 20 19
34
2216
12 10 9 10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
NewMexico
Texas California Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida
TotalVoters
Source: William Frey
Population in Red, Blue and Purple Population in Red, Blue and Purple Counties, 2004Counties, 2004
Source: William Frey
California
31%
50%
19%
RED BLUEPURPLE
Florida
37%
20%
43%
Florida: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Florida: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple CosCos
RedBluePurple
Source: William. Frey
Florida: 2000Florida: 2000--04 Components04 Components
Source: William Frey
11
3236
80
30 28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
RED BLUE PURPLE
Immigraton
DomesticMigration
California: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Cos.California: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Cos.
RedBluePurple
Source: William. Frey
California: 2000California: 2000--04 Components04 Components
Source: William Frey
25
41
23
41
-49
5
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
RED BLUE PURPLE
Immigraton
DomesticMigration
Percent Voting for Bush: 2000 Percent Voting for Bush: 2000 vsvs 20042004
Source: William Frey
22.6
53.649.0
27.7
51.1 51.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Queens, NY Wake Co. NC Cahoun Co. MI
2000
2004
Demographic Components, 2000Demographic Components, 2000--0404
Source: William Frey
64
29
5
-98
55
-9
27
47
11
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Queens, NY Wake Co. NC Cahoun Co. MI
Immigraton
DomesticMigrationNaturalIncrease
RaceRace--Ethnic ProfilesEthnic Profiles
Source: William Frey
Wake Co. NC
67%
20%
6%
7%
Queens, NY
32%
20%
22%
26% Cahoun Co. MI
82%
4%
3%
11%
WhiteBlackAsia/OthrHispanic