Post on 21-Apr-2020
transcript
Unofficial translation Page - 1 -
Socio-Economic Trends
January-February 2019
Contents
Page
Executive summary 1
1. Cambodia economic trends 3
1.1. Consumer price index 3
1.2. Finance 3
1.3. Trade 4
1.4. Budget execution 7
1.5. Private investment 8
1.6. Tourism 11
1.7. Construction 13
2. International commodity prices 14
2.1. Crude oil price: Brent, WTI, Dubai 14
2.2. Rice price: 5%, 25%, 100% broken 15
2.3. Rubber price: TSR20, RSS3 16
3. Appendix 17
Unofficial translation Page - 2 -
Executive summary
1. In the first 2 months of 2020, Cambodian total export value1 amounted to USD 2,563 million (6.9% of
GDP2), increased by 24.2% (compared to the first 2 months of 2019) – higher than the growth rate in the
same period last year which was only 13.7%. This high growth rate was reflected through the achievement
in high growth rate of key exporting products, especially garments and footwears, rices, and bicycles. On
the other hand, Cambodian total import value amounted to USD 3,623 million (13.5% of GDP), increased
by 22.1% which was higher than the same period last year growth – having the growth rate of 17%.
Although the total import value achieved a high growth rate, the import value of major products, which
used to be quite high, was in a declining growth especially vehicles and gasoline, and some others with a
negative growth especially textiles and construction materials.
2. In the first 2 months of 2020, Council for Development of Cambodia (CDC)3 has approved 36 private
investment projects (excluding SEZs), decreased by 10 projects and the total investment value was
USD 884 million, decreased by -52.4% compared to same period last year. Among the 36 projects,
32 were invested in the industry sector (6 are bags and 12 are garments), 2 were in tourism sector
and the other 2 were in service sector. In these 2 months, the data indicated a progress of investment
diversification achievement through the investment projects in the various sectors besides garments
such as electronic, foods processing, construction materials, car assembly, and packaging. During
the widespread infection of the COVID-19, apart from investment promotion, relevant agencies must
ensure a survival of all employees (getting basic salary while companies temporarily close down)
and companies (a guarantee of access to cash-flow, cost and credit).
3. In the first 2 months of 2020, the total number of international tourist arrivals was only 932 thousand,
decreased by -25.1% compared to same period last year. Among the total number, Chinese tourist
accounted for 192 thousand or 20.6% (decreased by -54.2%), Vietnam 15.4% (increased by 15.8%),
Thailand 11.7% (increased by 57.5%) and others including Laos, South Korea, US, Japan, Malaysia,
France and UK. On the negative growth of -25.1% (total tourists declining rate), Chinese tourist
arrivals had -18.2% contribution to decline because the number of international tourist arrival in
Cambodia was heavily dependent on Chinese tourists. It can be noted that international tourist arrival
by air declined by -35.6%, of which the number of international tourist arrival via Phnom Penh
International Airport, Siem Reap International Airport and Kong Keng International Airport declined
1 Preliminary data from General Department of Customs and Excise (Admin Data) received on 17th March 2020 2 GDP at current price Million USD = USD 26,714 million and 24 374 for 2019 and 2018 respectively (Macroeconomic Framework adjusted
for the March framework based on the half year data of 2019) 3 The private investment projects, excluding SEZ, which were approved by CDC
Unofficial translation Page - 3 -
by -21.1%, -45.6% and -53.0% respectively. Thus, the number of international tourists purchasing
Angkor Wat Pass Ticket rapidly dropped by -37.3% and revenue from selling Angkor Wat Pass
Ticket also declined by -35.4%4. The decline was due to the widespread infection of COVID-19
globally pushing a travel restriction/constraint both locally and internationally.
4. In first 2 months of 2020, the total numbers of construction proposals were 728 projects, increased by 168
projects; the total areas were 4.2 million square meters, increased by 33.9%; and the total value was USD
1.99 billion, increased by 46.8% compared to the same period last year. As the observation, this growth was
contributed by a strong growth of housing construction while the RGC decided to waive the stamp tax for
home-buyers who buying a house from developers with the price lower than USD 70,000 for one year
(February 2020 to January 2021) which registered with either the Ministry of Economy and Finance or
Provincial Department of Economy and Finance. Meanwhile, as a measure to cope with the affected of
widespread infection of COVID-19, the National Bank of Cambodia laid out the “Loan Restructuring”
measure for 4 key prioritized sectors, of which construction sector was also included (only applicable for
first time housing/shop construction and first time housing loan).
5. Consumer Price Index5 in February 2020 increased by 2.6% compared to the same period in the previous
year, of which 1) foods and non-alcoholic beverages index increaed 3.2% especially food product groups
such as bread and grain, rice, meat and fresh fish; 2) transporation price index increased by 3.0% due to the
increasing price of petroleum; and 3) restaurant price index increased by 4.3%.
6. In first 2 months of 2020, the budgetary central government achieved the total domestic revenue amounting
to KHR 3,570.15 billion or equivalent to 14.82% of the Budget Law 2020, increased by 22.66% compared
to the same period last year. The growth was attributed to the increase of non-tax revnue (14.54%) and
indirect tax (8.42%). Meanwhile, the total expenditure was KHR 3,040.29% or equivalent to 10.14% of
the Budget Law 2020, increased by 33.67%. As a result, as of February 2020, the current budget balance
achieved the surplus of KHR 1,144.72 billion, and the overal budget balance achieved the surplus of KHR
529.86 billion.
7. In February 2020, the price of petroleum and diesel on Cambodian market as well as the price of crude oil
on the international market were declined compared to the last month price. At the same time, the price of
Jasmin rice and Neang Minh rice on Cambodian market as well as the price of rice on the international
market slightly fluctuated. Meanwhile, the price of a dry family rubber increased while the price of Thai
rubber TSR20 and RSS3 declined.
4 Data from Angkor Enterprise on 1st March 2020 5 Official data from the National Institute of Statistic
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៣. ឧបសម្ពន័្ធ
១. និ្ន្នា ការសសដ្ឋកិច្ចកម្ពុជា / Cambodia economic trends
១.១. ស្ថា ន្ភាពសន្ទសសន៍្ថ្លៃទំនិ្ញស្បើ្ាស់ / Consumer price index
១.២. ិ សស័ពាណិជិកកម្ / Trade
ប្រភព៖ វិ ទ្យាស្ថាន ជាតិស្ថន សិ្ ស្
Source: National Institute of Statistics (NIS)
6.3%
24.9%
8.2%
20.7%
5.9%
33.8%
ចំណែកាផី្សារអាមេរទ្យកវមៅណិរជាតឈរលដំារា់ី ១វ
កនុងការជរំញុភាពលូិ លាថន់ជាការនំមចញថររុររថក់េពតុ
អាា៊ា ជា
អឺរ ុរវ(២៧)
ជរ ុជា
មផ្សេងៗ
អង់មលេថ
អាមេរទ្យក
41
.6%
7.6
% 18
.4%
20
.7%
-3.0
%
38
.9%51
.5%
11
.8%
15
.9%
12
.0%
4.5
%
48
.0%
ការនំមចញផ្សលសិ្ ផ្សលវាយជាភែឌ មៅកាជាា់ផី្សារថវំខាជា់ៗ មៅណិអាច
រកាបាជាអប្ាកមំែើជារងឹមវំពស្មថថមៅាផី្សារអាមេវរទ្យកវជាស្ងអរឺ រុ
កំមែើជាវ២០១៩វ(២ណែ) កំមែើជាវ២០២០វ(២ណែ)
ប្រភព៖ អលគនយកដាា ជាលយជាស្ងរដាា ករកេពុត,វប្កថួងមថដ្ាកស្ចចជាស្ងហស្រញ្ញិ ិន ុ
Source: General department of Custom and Excise (GDCE), MEF
Unofficial translation Page - 5 -
-6.7%
52.8%
-3.4% -10.5%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
២០១៧វ
(២ណែ)
២០១៨វវ
(២ណែ)
២០១៩វវ
(២ណែ)
២០២០វ
(២ណែ)
លាជាដ្លាេរ
ាឹកប្បាកនំ់ចលូប្កណាិម់ៅណិរជាតធ្លេ កច់ុុះលរួឱ្យកិថ់មគ លវ់
លស្ិប្ិេឹរយៈមពលវ២ណែវឆ្ន ំ២០២០មជាុះ
ប្កណាិវ់(ិនេេលសិ្ ពជាធ) កំមែើជា
36.9%
60.3%
-13.5%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
30
60
90
120
150
២០១៨វវ
(២ណែ)
២០១៩វវ
(២ណែ)
២០២០វ
(២ណែ)
លាជាដ្លាេរ
ការនំចលូណដ្កវជាស្ងថមា រថែំងម់ផ្សេងៗវមៅណិរជាតថមថេថមថយវ
ជាស្ងធ្លេ កច់ុុះកមំែើជាែពថល់រួឱ្យកិថ់មគ ល់
ថុីេ ងិ៍ ណដ្ក
ថមា រថែំងម់ផ្សេងៗ កំមែើជាវ(ថររុ)
16.6%
45.8%
16.5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-
100
200
300
400
២០១៨វវ
(២ណែ)
២០១៩វវ
(២ណែ)
២០២០វ
(២ណែ)
លាជាដ្លាេរ
ាឹកប្បាកនំ់ចលូរថមថយជាតមៅណិរជាតថមថេថមថយកមំែើជាវវ
តពស្មថថរថមថយជាតមាថចរែ៍វជាស្ងដ្កឹជញ្ជូជា
េ ូិូ រថមថយជាតប្កងុ រថមថយជាតមាថចរែ៍
រថមថយជាតមផ្សេងៗ ប្ាកា់រ័ រថមថយជាតដ្កឹាជំាស្ញ
កំមែើជា
ការនំចលូមប្រងឥជាធជាៈប្លរប់្រមភាមៅណិមជាជាស្នន ការថមថេថមថយ
កំមែើជាលសិ្ ប្ិេឹរយៈមពលវ២ណែវឆ្ន ំ២០២០មជាុះ
កំមែើជាវ២០១៩វវ(២ណែ) កំមែើជាវ២០២០វ(២ណែ)
ប្រភព៖ អលគនយកដាា ជាលយជាស្ងរដាា ករកេពុត,វប្កថួងមថដ្ាកស្ចចជាស្ងហស្រញ្ញិ ិន ុ
Source: General department of Custom and Excise (GDCE), MEF
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១.៣. ស្ថា ន្ភាពការអនុ្ិត្តលិសការដ្ឋ / Budget execution
ប្រភព៖ ប្កថួងមថដ្ាកស្ចចវជាស្ងហស្រញ្ញិ ិន ុ
Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF)
Unofficial translation Page - 7 -
១.៤. ស្ថា ន្ភាពិសនិ្សោគ / Investment
-67.2%
1082.2%
-87.4%51.3%
951.9%
-52.4%
-500.0%
0.0%
500.0%
1,000.0%
1,500.0%
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៥
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៦
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៧
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៨
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៩
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០២០
លាជាដ្លាេរ
កំមែើជាាជុាិទ្យជាស្មោលថររុមដ្ើេឆ្ន ំ២០២០ធ្លេ ក់ចុុះវមដាយារការមបាុះាជុាិទ្យជាស្មោលដ្ល៏ហំកុមលើ
េជឈេែឌ លមាចរែក៍ាលពណីែកេុាៈឆ្ន ំ២០១៩
កថស្កេម ថាេពល ឧថាហកេម មថវាកេម មាថចរែ៍ កំមែើជា
-45.6%
64.0%
-7.6%-45.4%
361.8%
-61.3%-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៥
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៦
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៧
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៨
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៩
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០២០
ពាជា់នក់
ម ុះរតីិទ្យថយ័មថវាកេមាាលួបាជាាជុាិទ្យជាស្មោលមប្ចើជាតងមលមៅមដ្ើេឆ្ន ំ២០២០មជាុះវិទ្យថយ័ឧថាហកេម
រមងកើិ ការងារបាជាមប្ចើជាតងមល
កថស្កេម ថាេពល ឧថាហកេម មថវាកេម មាថចរែ៍ កំមែើជា
ប្រភព៖ ប្កុេប្រឹកាអភស្ិឌ្ឍជា៍កេពុត
Source: The Council for Development of Cambodia (CDC)
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១.៥. ស្ថា ន្ភាពសទសច្រិ៍ / Tourism
១.៦. ស្ថា ន្ភាពសំិ ង ់/ Construction
0.0%
-47.7%
14.2%
114.0%
9.3%
-25.1%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៥
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៦
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៧
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៨
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០១៩
២ណែ
ឆ្ន ំ២០២០
ពាជា់នក់
ចំជាជួាមភញៀិមាថចរអជាតរតិស្ថររុបាជាធ្លេ កច់ុុះវ-២៥,១% ម ៀរជាងឹឆ្ន ំេជុាាជាទេឹជាងឹការរកីរាលវដាល
កាជា់ណិខាេ ំងម ើងនជាិរីថុកូិដី្១៩មៅា ូងំពស្ភពមលាក
ចស្ជាវ មិៀិណាេវ ឡាិវ នថមថវ កូមរ វ អាមេរទ្យកវ
ជរ ុជាវ បារាងំវ អង់មលេថវ មផ្សេងៗវ អប្ាកំមែើជាវ
ប្រភព៖ ប្កថួងមាថចរែ៍
Source: Ministry of Tourism
ប្រភព៖ ប្កថួងមរៀរចំណដ្ជាដី្វជាលរូរជាយីកេមវជាស្ងថំែង់
Source: Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction
Unofficial translation Page - 9 -
២. ន្ិន្នា ការថ្លៃទំន្ញិសខំាន្់ៗ / Commodity prices
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
េករា
-១៧
េីន
-១៧
ឧថភា
-១៧
កកកដា
-១៧
កញ្ញញ-១៧
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៧
េករា
-១៨
េីន
-១៨
ឧថភា
-១៨
កកកដា
-១៨
កញ្ញញ-១៨
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៨
េករា
-១៩
េីន
-១៩
ឧថភា
-១៩
កកកដា
-១៩
កញ្ញញ-១៩
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៩
េករា
-២០
មរៀល
ជាស្នន ការនថមថេមប្រងាងំ ជាស្ងមប្រងម ថ៊ាូិ មលើាីផ្សារកេពុត
ាងំ េមាវ(EA 92) ម ថ៊ាូិ វ(DO 0.05%)
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
េករា
-១៧
េីន
-១៧
ឧថភា
-១៧
កកកដា
-១៧
កញ្ញញ-១៧
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៧
េករា
-១៨
េីន
-១៨
ឧថភា
-១៨
កកកដា
-១៨
កញ្ញញ-១៨
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៨
េករា
-១៩
េីន
-១៩
ឧថភា
-១៩
កកកដា
-១៩
កញ្ញញ-១៩
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៩
េករា
-២០
ដ្លាេរ
ជាស្នន ការនថមថេមប្រងមៅមលើាផី្សារអជាតរតិស្
Brent WTI
ប្រភព៖វប្កថួងពាែស្ជជកេម
Source: Ministry of Commerce
ប្រភព៖វ នគារពស្ភពមលាកវ(Pink Sheet)
Source: World bank (Pink Sheet)
Unofficial translation Page - 10 -
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
េករា
-១៧
េីន
-១៧
ឧថភា
-១៧
កកកដា
-១៧
កញ្ញញ-១៧
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៧
េករា
-១៨
េីន
-១៨
ឧថភា
-១៨
កកកដា
-១៨
កញ្ញញ-១៨
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៨
េករា
-១៩
េីន
-១៩
ឧថភា
-១៩
កកកដា
-១៩
កញ្ញញ-១៩
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៩
េករា
-២០
មរៀល
ជាស្នន ការនថមថេអងករមលើាីផ្សារកេពុត
អងករផ្កក េេស្ុះ អងករផ្កក ែញី អងករនងេស្ញ
300
350
400
450
500
េករា
-១៧
េីន
-១៧
ឧថភា
-១៧
កកកដា
-១៧
កញ្ញញ-១៧
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៧
េករា
-១៨
េីន
-១៨
ឧថភា
-១៨
កកកដា
-១៨
កញ្ញញ-១៨
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៨
េករា
-១៩
េីន
-១៩
ឧថភា
-១៩
កកកដា
-១៩
កញ្ញញ-១៩
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៩
េករា
-២០
ដ្លាេរ
ជាស្នន ការនថមថេអងករបាក៥់%មលើាផី្សារអជាតរតិស្
អងករនថមថ អងករមិៀិណាេ
ប្រភព៖វប្កថួងពាែស្ជជកេម
Source: Ministry of Commerce
ប្រភព៖វ នគារពស្ភពមលាកវ(Pink Sheet)
Source: World bank (Pink Sheet)
Unofficial translation Page - 11 -
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
េករា
-១៧
េីន
-១៧
ឧថភា
-១៧
កកកដា
-១៧
កញ្ញញ-១៧
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៧
េករា
-១៨
េីន
-១៨
ឧថភា
-១៨
កកកដា
-១៨
កញ្ញញ-១៨
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៨
េករា
-១៩
េីន
-១៩
ឧថភា
-១៩
កកកដា
-១៩
កញ្ញញ-១៩
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៩
េករា
-២០
ដ្លាេរ
ជាស្នន ការនថមថេមៅថ៊ាថូតងដ់ារមលើាផី្សារអជាតរតិស្
មៅថ៊ាូវTSR20 (ដុ្លាេ រ/មាជា) មៅថ៊ាូវRSS3 (ដុ្លាេ រ/មាជា)
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
េករា
-១៧
េីន
-១៧
ឧថភា
-១៧
កកកដា
-១៧
កញ្ញញ-១៧
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៧
េករា
-១៨
េីន
-១៨
ឧថភា
-១៨
កកកដា
-១៨
កញ្ញញ-១៨
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៨
េករា
-១៩
េីន
-១៩
ឧថភា
-១៩
កកកដា
-១៩
កញ្ញញ-១៩
វិទ្យ ចិស្កា
-១៩
េករា
-២០
មរៀល
ជាស្នន ការនថមថេមៅថ៊ាបូ្លាួរជរ័មៅថ៊ាថូងួ ិវមលើាីផ្សារកេពុត
ប្រភព៖វប្កថួងកថស្កេមវរុកាា ប្រមញវ់ជាស្ងមជាាា
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries
Source៖វAssociation of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC)
Unofficial translation Page - 12 -
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General Department of Policy
Ministry of Economy and Finance
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