Southern Forest Southern Forest SustainabilitySustainability

David WearDavid WearProject LeaderProject Leader

Southern Research Station, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest ServiceUSDA Forest Service

ObjectiveObjective

Provide an overview of Provide an overview of southern forests—southern forests—conditions, trends, and conditions, trends, and possible futures.possible futures.

……provide a foundation provide a foundation of credible information of credible information upon which to build upon which to build further dialogue…further dialogue…

Scope…Scope…

OrganizationOrganization

Criteria from the Montreal ProcessCriteria from the Montreal Process Biological DiversityBiological Diversity Productive CapacityProductive Capacity Ecosystem Health and VitalityEcosystem Health and Vitality Soil and water resourcesSoil and water resources Global carbon cyclesGlobal carbon cycles Socio-economic benefitsSocio-economic benefits Institutional frameworksInstitutional frameworks

Conservation of biological Conservation of biological diversitydiversity

EcosystemEcosystem SpeciesSpecies GeneticGenetic

Trends in Forest Area for the Trends in Forest Area for the SouthSouth

0

50

100

150

200

250

Million acres

1952 1962 1977 1987 1992 1998

Year

Timberland Reserved & other

Rare Forest CommunitiesRare Forest Communities

Focus of concernsFocus of concerns Disproportionately Disproportionately

high ecological / high ecological / conservation conservation values values (scarcity=value)(scarcity=value)

Spruce-fir Spruce-fir impacted by impacted by multiple changesmultiple changes

Wetlands/bog Wetlands/bog complexes and complexes and pocosinspocosins

Bottomland and Bottomland and floodplain forestsfloodplain forests

Glades, barrens, and Glades, barrens, and prairiesprairies

Longleaf pine Longleaf pine ecosystems.ecosystems.

Atlantic White Cedar Atlantic White Cedar SwampsSwamps

Old-growthOld-growth Spruce-fir forestsSpruce-fir forests

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Million acres

Pine plantation Natural pine Oak–pine

Upland hardwood Lowland hardwood•

Forest Type TrendsForest Type Trends

Forecast Forest Types, Forecast Forest Types, 1995-20401995-2040

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Million acres

PlantedPine

NaturalPine

MixedOak-Pine

UplandHardwood

LowlandHardwood

Agriculture

1995

2020

2040

Forest StructureForest Structure

Forecasting Forecasting fragmentation…fragmentation…

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Birds

Amphibians

Mammals

Reptiles

Presumed/Possibly Extinct (GX/GH) Critically Imperiled (G1)Imperiled (G2) Vulnerable (G3)

Terrestrial SpeciesTerrestrial Species

AmphibiansAmphibians

Biological diversityBiological diversity ObservationsObservations

Highly diverse regionHighly diverse region Demonstration of Demonstration of

resilience resilience Wildlife speciesWildlife species AfforestationAfforestation

Scarcity—rare Scarcity—rare communitiescommunities

Focus on forest-water Focus on forest-water interfaceinterface

QuestionsQuestions Do we have data to Do we have data to

track forest types of track forest types of conservation concern?conservation concern?

Landscape level Landscape level assessment of species assessment of species viabilityviability

Scale dependent—think Scale dependent—think endemicsendemics

Forecasts of ecosystem Forecasts of ecosystem functionfunction

Understanding genetic Understanding genetic diversitydiversity

Conservation and Conservation and maintenance of soil maintenance of soil and water resourcesand water resources

Water Quality by Water Quality by WatershedWatershed

Number of Speciesby Region

1 - 910 - 24

25 - 4950 - 99100 - 104

Regional Concentrations of At-Risk Fish and Mussel Species

Water QualityWater Quality

Point sources32,814 miles

(32%)

Non-point sources70,168 miles

(68%)

Municipal 11,043 miles

Storm sewers/runoff 10,852 miles

Industrial 6,990 miles

Agriculture44,326 miles

Hydrologic/habitat modification8,153 miles

Resource extraction6,554 miles

Channelization2,337 miles

Construction3,434 miles

Silviculture

Soil and Water Soil and Water ResourcesResources

ObservationsObservations Highest quality water Highest quality water

flows from forested flows from forested landscapes.landscapes.

Silvicultural BMP’s do Silvicultural BMP’s do protect soil and water protect soil and water qualityquality

Concerns focus on Concerns focus on mountains and on mountains and on wetlandswetlands

QuestionsQuestions Limited core dataLimited core data Application of BMP’s Application of BMP’s

across an increasingly across an increasingly fragmented landscape?fragmented landscape?

Landscape level linkages Landscape level linkages between land cover and between land cover and water quantitywater quantity

Water demand in the Water demand in the SouthSouth

Links between forest Links between forest condition and ocean condition and ocean fisheriesfisheries

Maintenance of Maintenance of Productive CapacityProductive Capacity

Timber Production in the Timber Production in the SouthSouth

Timber Production by Region

0.00

2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

12000.00

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

mmcf

North

Rockies

Pacific

South

Trends in Forest Area for the Trends in Forest Area for the SouthSouth

0

50

100

150

200

250

Million acres

1952 1962 1977 1987 1992 1998

Year

Timberland Reserved & other

• Current timberland area only 3 million acres lower than 1952.• Forest acreage stable or increasing in last decade.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Billion cubic feet

1952 1962 1977 1987 1992 1998

Hardwood Softwood

Inventory volumesInventory volumes

Softwood Inventory Softwood Inventory Growth and Removals Growth and Removals

1995-20401995-2040

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Year

Inventory (bcf)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Growth or Removals (bcf)

Inventory

Growth

Removals

Hardwood Inventory, Hardwood Inventory, Growth and RemovalsGrowth and Removals

0

40

80

120

160

200

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Year

Inventory (bcf)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Growth or Removals (bcf)

InventoryGrowthRemovals

Changed perspective on Changed perspective on timber marketstimber markets

ObservationsObservations From a premise of From a premise of

timber scarcity…timber scarcity… ……to a premise of to a premise of

market ordermarket order Private landowners Private landowners

are rationalare rational Investment proceeds Investment proceeds

in spite of long in spite of long production periodsproduction periods

Orderly changeOrderly change

QuestionsQuestions Recent shifts in Recent shifts in

ownershipownership

Maintenance of Maintenance of Forest Ecosystem Forest Ecosystem

Health and ViabilityHealth and Viability

Nonnative speciesNonnative species

Native insects and diseases Native insects and diseases with host dynamics…with host dynamics…

Intensified management increases Intensified management increases availability and contiguity of pine—availability and contiguity of pine—host species for Southern Pine Beetle host species for Southern Pine Beetle and fusiform rust.and fusiform rust.

MortalityMortality

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1952 1962 1977 1987 1992 1999

Mortality RatesSoftwood

Mortality RatesHardwood

Forest ecosystem health Forest ecosystem health and viabilityand viability

ObservationsObservations Collection of factors Collection of factors

will influence will influence certain forest typescertain forest types

Hardwood typesHardwood types MountainsMountains

Fire is an important Fire is an important factorfactor

Interactions Interactions between between neighbors--neighbors--especially private especially private and public landand public land

QuestionsQuestions System-level effects System-level effects

of multiple assaultsof multiple assaults Defining range of Defining range of

variabilityvariability Managing with fireManaging with fire

Maintenance of forest Maintenance of forest contributions to contributions to

global carbon cyclesglobal carbon cycles

Potential response to tree Potential response to tree planting programsplanting programs

Maintenance and Maintenance and enhancement of long-enhancement of long-term multiple socio-term multiple socio-economic benefits to economic benefits to

meet the needs of meet the needs of societysociety

Trends in Human Trends in Human PopulationPopulation

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Thousand People

Socio-economic benefitsSocio-economic benefits ObservationsObservations

Population growth will Population growth will outstrip the US averageoutstrip the US average

Recreation demand Recreation demand growth stronggrowth strong

Shift from utilitarian to Shift from utilitarian to biocentric perspective on biocentric perspective on natural resourcesnatural resources

Timber and recreation are Timber and recreation are important sources of important sources of income in rural areasincome in rural areas

QuestionsQuestions Changing Changing

demographics and demographics and demands?demands?

Social impacts in Social impacts in new production new production areas?areas?

Ability to manage in Ability to manage in the WUIthe WUI

Social impacts of Social impacts of production production declines?declines?

Legal, institutional, Legal, institutional, and economic and economic

framework for forest framework for forest conservation and conservation and

sustainable sustainable managementmanagement

Forest industry20%

Nonindustrial private69%

Other public5%

Nationalforest

6%

200 million acres

Forest Ownership in the Forest Ownership in the SouthSouth

TaxesTaxes

Inheritance taxes…Inheritance taxes… Liquidation or parcelizationLiquidation or parcelization

Income taxesIncome taxes Mixed effects on forest managementMixed effects on forest management

Property taxesProperty taxes Differential effects on ownershipsDifferential effects on ownerships

SubsidiesSubsidies

SubsidiesSubsidies Influence behaviorInfluence behavior Small programsSmall programs

Agriculture dominatesAgriculture dominates

Direct RegulationDirect Regulation

Limited in the SouthLimited in the South Voluntary BMP programsVoluntary BMP programs

Local ordinancesLocal ordinances Responses to losses of green spaceResponses to losses of green space Doubled between 1992 and 2000Doubled between 1992 and 2000

Economic StructureEconomic Structure

Price informationPrice information Risk mitigation—e.g., fireRisk mitigation—e.g., fire Investment in long run productionInvestment in long run production

InstitutionsInstitutions

FederalFederalStateStateNongovernmental organizationsNongovernmental organizations

Frameworks for assessment and broad Frameworks for assessment and broad scale evaluationsscale evaluations

Certification programsCertification programs

Legal, institutional, and Legal, institutional, and economic frameworkseconomic frameworks

ObservationsObservations Well functioning markets Well functioning markets

for timber productsfor timber products Responsiveness Responsiveness

demonstrateddemonstrated Longleaf restorationLongleaf restoration Conservation easementsConservation easements Red Cockaded Red Cockaded

woodpeckerwoodpecker Ecological concerns have Ecological concerns have

not been avoidednot been avoided

QuestionsQuestions Can institutional Can institutional

arrangement work arrangement work to avoid problems?to avoid problems?

Can current Can current institutions work in institutions work in a fragmented a fragmented landscape?landscape?

Does rural-focused Does rural-focused delivery work in a delivery work in a wildland urban wildland urban interface?interface?

Concluding...Concluding...

More than dataMore than data But C and I can help focus data But C and I can help focus data

collection…collection…

Criteria and Indicator Criteria and Indicator CrosswalkCrosswalk

CriterionCriterion Number of Number of IndicatorsIndicators

Available in Available in SFRASFRA

1 Diversity1 Diversity 99 77

2 Productive 2 Productive CapacityCapacity

55 55

3 Health and 3 Health and vitalityvitality

33 22

4 Soil and Water4 Soil and Water 88 22

5 Carbon5 Carbon 33 33

6 6 SocioeconomicSocioeconomic

1919 88

7 Institutions7 Institutions 2020 33

Concluding… (really)Concluding… (really)

Aggregate analysis can mask Aggregate analysis can mask important dynamics—what is the best important dynamics—what is the best scale?scale? NationNation RegionRegion ????????

Current changes may progress rapidlyCurrent changes may progress rapidly Argues for ongoing discussion…Argues for ongoing discussion…

Thanks for Listening…Thanks for Listening…