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7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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9 Eiy 9, 1=93
F`kdnssg`ks `d Ank Anrkikhn
Eiy 1=93
Vtnpoikgn ]`ea`yEifr`Eivnks, JJF
sp`ea`yMeifr`eivnks.f`e tnj 191.7?7.6699 dix 191.7?7.==11
www.eifr`eivnks.f`e
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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1 Eiy 9, 1=93
O`usno`jc Knt R`rto y/y%vs.
F`ksuenr Vpnkcgkb y/y%
-3
-1
=
1
3
4
?
9=
91
93
94
9749 974> 9747 9726 9722 97?9 97?> 97?7 9776 9772 1==9 1==> 1==7 1=96
-1=
-9>
-9=
->
=
>
9=
9>
1=
1>
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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6 Eiy 9, 1=93
Vt`fh Eirhnt Fip is % BC]
6=
>=
2=
7=
99=
96=
9>=
92=
97=
19=
97>? 974> 9721 9727 97?4 9776 1=== 1==2 1=93
V`urfn5 ANI, Dncnrij Qnsnrvn (\.9)
1=3%
1=6%
9?6%
Eiy 1==2 ]rnsnkt
^knepj`yenkt Qitn 3.3% 4.2%
BC] yy 3.> 3.9
]FN yy 3.7 6.=
Qntigj Vijns yy 3.1 6.?
FipNx yy ?.6 6.?
O`usno`jc Knt R`rto $47t $?9t
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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3 Eiy 9, 1=93
Nxgstgkb O`enVijns y/y% vs . ]rgfn y/y% (- -)
-6>
-1?
-19
-93
-2
=
2
93
19
1?
977= 9771 9773 9774 977? 1=== 1==1 1==3 1==4 1==? 1=9= 1=91 1=93
-9?
-91
-4
=
4
91
9?
E`rtbibn Ippjgfitg`ks vs . S`tij O`en Vijns (Knw + Nxgstgkb)
6.9
6.>
6.7
3.6
3.2
>.9
>.>
>.7
4.6
4.2
2.9
2.>
977> 9772 9777 1==9 1==6 1==> 1==2 1==7 1=99 1=96
93=
9?=
11=
14=
6==
63=
6?=
31=
34=
>==
Egjjg`ks
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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> Eiy 9, 1=93
DCGF Gksurnc Gkstgtutg`ksJ`ik J`ss Qnsnrvns
>>
?>
99>
93>
92>
1=>
16>
14>
977> 9772 9777 1==9 1==6 1==> 1==2 1==7 1=99 1=96
$ Agjjg`k
-$912a
V&] >== F`epikgns Ikkuij Gk tnrnst Nxpnksn
3Y Srigjgkb Vue
9==
9>=
1==
1>=
6==
6>=
3==
3>=
>==
977> 9772 9777 1==9 1==6 1==> 1==2 1==7 1=99 1=96
$ Agjjg`k
1==2 $3??a
-$619a
V`urfn5 V&]
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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4 Eiy 9, 1=93
C`enstgf F`rp`ritn ]r`dg ts is % BC]vs. F`ksuenr Vpnkcgkb y/y%
-3.=
-1.=
=.=
1.=
3.=
4.=
?.=
9=.=
91.=
93.=
94.=
9747 9723 9727 97?3 97?7 9773 9777 1==3 1==7 1=93
V`urfn 5 ANI (KG]I, F`rp`ritn]r`dgts icl d`r GTI & FFI )
Qnfnssg`k
Qnfnssg`k
Qnfnssg`k
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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2 Eiy 9, 1=93
Qntigj Vijns nx D``c & NknrbyK`egkij (- -) vs. Qnij*
9>==
94==
92==
9?==
97==
1===
19==
11==
16==
13==
9773 9774 977? 1=== 1==1 1==3 1==4 1==? 1=9= 1=91 1=93
94==
97==
11==
1>==
1?==
69==
63==
62==
3===
*Qntigj Vijns nx D``c & Nknrby, cndjitnc ay F]G
+$3?a
+$34=a
$ Agjjg`k$ Agjjg`k
K`egkijQntigj Vijns
Br`wto
^kgts is %K`egkij
]rgfn is %K`egkij
1=99 $191a 69% 47%
1=91 1=3 6= 2=
1=96 974 1? 21
1=93ytc $913a 14% 23%
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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? Eiy 9, 1=93
Ikkuij Gkfrnisn gk O`usno`jc Gktnrnst ]iyenkts$ Agjjg`ks
-9==
-?=
-4=
-3=
-1=
=
1=
3=
4=
?=
9==
97?9 97?3 97?2 977= 9776 9774 9777 1==1 1==> 1==? 1=99 1=93
Ikkuij Fiso-@ut T`juen
1==7 $9=2.>
1=9= 49.2
1=99 >6.9
1=91 46.>
1=96 43.4
1==7-1=96 $6>=.3
V`urfn5Drnccgn Eif, Fiso@ut+ Onj`f/1
c
Etb F`ks`jgcitg`k
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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7 Eiy 9, 1=93
F`rp`ritn ]r`dgts % BC] (- -)
jnics V&] >== Gkcnx
97>
67=
>?>
2?=
72>
992=
964>
9>4=
92>>
97>=
97?2 977= 9776 9774 9777 1==1 1==> 1==? 1=99 1=93
4
2
?
7
9=
99
91
96
* KG]I ]r`dgts (icl d`r GTI & FFI), jnicgkb ay 3 quirtnrs
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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9= Eiy 9, 1=93
D`rngbk ]urfoisn `d ^V Srnisurgns91 e`kto sue
-9==
=
9==
1==
6==
3==
>==
4==
2==
?==
977= 9771 9773 9774 977? 1=== 1==1 1==3 1==4 1==? 1=9= 1=91 1=93
$ Agjjg`k
$9==a
V`urfn5 Cnpt `d Srnisury, SGF
7/22/2019 Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 ConfessionsOfBenBernanke
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Dnc Aijikfn Vonnt (- -)
vs. B`jc
92==
97==
19==
16==
1>==
12==
17==
69==
66==
6>==
62==
67==
39==
36==
1==7 1=9= 1=99 1=91 1=96 1=93
?==
7>=
99==
91>=
93==
9>>=
92==
9?>=
1===
19>=
16==
$/`z$ Agjjg`k
YN6
Eifr`Eivnks gs ton nxfjusgvn tricneirh `d Eifr`Eivnks JJF Son f`eenktiry rnjnisnc ukcnr gts aikknr eiy k`t an d`rwircnc rnpr`cufnc `r