SUMMERTIME DATA NEW PREDICT IVE ANALYT ICS PROJECTS

WEST NILE VIRUS CURTAIL ING VECTOR-BORN D ISEASES

WEST NILE VIRUS • Between 5 and 884 human

cases reported annually in Illinois since 2002

• 2,371 confirmed human infections since 2002

• Most people who become infected with West Nile virus never develop any symptoms

• About 1 in 5 people who are infected will develop flu like symptoms

• Less than 1% of people who are infected will develop a serious neurologic illness

WNV CYCLE

Mostly contained to birds and mosquitoes

Human and equine infections are essentially spillover

PREVENTION • The Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH)

uses a multi-pronged approach to fight the spread

of WNV

– Larvicide in stormwater drains

– DNA tests of mosquitoes (pictured)

– Spraying when WNV is present

DNA MONITORING • At any given time there are 60+ traps in

Chicago collecting (mostly) Culex Pipiens and Culex Restuans mosquitoes

• The traps are collected twice / week

• Batches of up to 50 mosquitoes are DNA tested

• The data is published on https://data.cityofchicago.org/

• The results and model predictions are displayed in WindyGrid

SEASONAL MODEL • We use a

generalized linear mixed-effects model

• Incorporates season and regional bias

• Predicts likelihood of WNV one week in advance

WE WERE ABLE TO IDENTIFY WNV ONE WEEK IN ADVANCE IN OUT OF SAMPLE DATA 78%

OF THE TIME, AND OUR PREDICTION WAS CORRECT

65% OF THE TIME

CLEAR WATER FORECAST ING CHICAGO’S WATER QUAL ITY

CHICAGO BEACHES • More than 20 million visitors

• About 150 water quality exceedances

• Traditional tests, rapid tests, and predictive

analytics

ACCURATE PREDICTIONS CAN PREVENT ILLNESS,

AND SAVE GOVERNMENTS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

CIVIC COLLABORATION DePaul Student Interns ChiHackNight

• Rapid testing of

volatile beaches

• Strategic selection of

predictor beaches

• chicago.github.io/clear

-water

Innovative Science

MODEL EVALUATION

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Advisories Issued

Be

ach

Day

s

Benchmark

Hybrid Method

MODEL EVALUATION

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Hit Rate

Pe

rce

nt

Benchmark

New Model

WATER QUALITY ADVISORIES ISSUED WITH 3 TIMES MORE ACCURACY

THEN PREVIOUS MODEL

D Work with civic technology

innovators to develop creative

solutions to city challenges

Total hours dedicated to this project through volunteers, Chi Hack Night, and students.

1,000 HOURS

GITHUB PUNCH CARD

C Leverage data and new technology to

make government more efficient,

effective, and open

OPENGRID 1.4.0 West Nile Virus project required the team to create

new maps for the team. Those changes were part of

OpenGrid 1.4.0 as a result, including the ability to

create “bubble maps”, static links to maps, and

more.

http://bit.ly/2vjJy2M

THANK YOU

Contact Info:

Websites: Gene Leynes

Nick Lucius

datascience@cityofchicago.org

chicago.github.io/clear-water

github.com/clear-water

github.com/west-nile-virus-predictions

data.cityofchicago.org