Date post: | 22-Jan-2018 |
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Data & Analytics |
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SUMMERTIME DATA NEW PREDICT IVE ANALYT ICS PROJECTS
WEST NILE VIRUS CURTAIL ING VECTOR-BORN D ISEASES
WEST NILE VIRUS • Between 5 and 884 human
cases reported annually in Illinois since 2002
• 2,371 confirmed human infections since 2002
• Most people who become infected with West Nile virus never develop any symptoms
• About 1 in 5 people who are infected will develop flu like symptoms
• Less than 1% of people who are infected will develop a serious neurologic illness
WNV CYCLE
Mostly contained to birds and mosquitoes
Human and equine infections are essentially spillover
PREVENTION • The Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH)
uses a multi-pronged approach to fight the spread
of WNV
– Larvicide in stormwater drains
– DNA tests of mosquitoes (pictured)
– Spraying when WNV is present
DNA MONITORING • At any given time there are 60+ traps in
Chicago collecting (mostly) Culex Pipiens and Culex Restuans mosquitoes
• The traps are collected twice / week
• Batches of up to 50 mosquitoes are DNA tested
• The data is published on https://data.cityofchicago.org/
• The results and model predictions are displayed in WindyGrid
SEASONAL MODEL • We use a
generalized linear mixed-effects model
• Incorporates season and regional bias
• Predicts likelihood of WNV one week in advance
WE WERE ABLE TO IDENTIFY WNV ONE WEEK IN ADVANCE IN OUT OF SAMPLE DATA 78%
OF THE TIME, AND OUR PREDICTION WAS CORRECT
65% OF THE TIME
CLEAR WATER FORECAST ING CHICAGO’S WATER QUAL ITY
CHICAGO BEACHES • More than 20 million visitors
• About 150 water quality exceedances
• Traditional tests, rapid tests, and predictive
analytics
ACCURATE PREDICTIONS CAN PREVENT ILLNESS,
AND SAVE GOVERNMENTS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
CIVIC COLLABORATION DePaul Student Interns ChiHackNight
• Rapid testing of
volatile beaches
• Strategic selection of
predictor beaches
• chicago.github.io/clear
-water
Innovative Science
MODEL EVALUATION
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Advisories Issued
Be
ach
Day
s
Benchmark
Hybrid Method
MODEL EVALUATION
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Hit Rate
Pe
rce
nt
Benchmark
New Model
WATER QUALITY ADVISORIES ISSUED WITH 3 TIMES MORE ACCURACY
THEN PREVIOUS MODEL
D Work with civic technology
innovators to develop creative
solutions to city challenges
Total hours dedicated to this project through volunteers, Chi Hack Night, and students.
1,000 HOURS
GITHUB PUNCH CARD
C Leverage data and new technology to
make government more efficient,
effective, and open
OPENGRID 1.4.0 West Nile Virus project required the team to create
new maps for the team. Those changes were part of
OpenGrid 1.4.0 as a result, including the ability to
create “bubble maps”, static links to maps, and
more.
http://bit.ly/2vjJy2M
THANK YOU
Contact Info:
Websites: Gene Leynes
Nick Lucius
chicago.github.io/clear-water
github.com/clear-water
github.com/west-nile-virus-predictions
data.cityofchicago.org