Technology Forecasting

Data Examples provided by Technology Futures, Inc. Austin, TX by permission

Five key impacts on Technology Forecasting

Technical Social Environmental Legal Political

Types of Forecasts

Surveillance Normative (Goal Oriented) Expert Opinion Integrative (Scenarios) Projective

Surveillance READ EVERYTHING!!!!!

The EconomistWired

Nov 2003: Smart Bandages, Superglue for sutures, Growth Hormones, Open source computing for medicine, Modafinil for insomnia, Heart tissue regeneration

Business 2.0Historians

Groups exist that do this professionallySRIDATACOMTechnology Futures, Inc.

Expert Opinion

Seeking definition of the knowable future

Single Expert Committee Surveys Groups Delphi Structured Interviews

Nominal Group Technique

Outline of goals and methods by moderator

Silent, independent generation of ideas

Silent, written presentation of ideas

Discussion of ideas Silent independent voting

Using Expert Opinion More Effectively

Surveys-Traditional Samplingeffective only if the general

population knows the subject Groups-Focus, brainstorming,

nominal group technique Delphi

effective if it is a new technology known only by a few experts

Implications Wheel

Potential topics (select one-well defined innovation, trend, decision

Write a concise statement (hub) Areas of direct, immediate

impact (1st ring) Impacts of direct impacts (2nd

ring) Higher order impacts (3rd and

4th ring)

General Rules of Thumb

If a technology achieves worldwide standardization, it will tend to see explosive growth.Fax Machines

Standardization can be through standards bodies (CCITT, IEEE, etc.) or defacto industry standard (Windows and Intel).

Trend Analysis

Looking for the roots of change Trend Extrapolation

What happens if this trend keeps going?

Constant percentage rate of improvement

Growth models and performance envelopes

Precursor DevelopmentsHas this happened before?

Accuracy is More Critical Than Precision

Precise, but not accurate.

Accurate, but not precise.

Will These Targets Match the Competition?

The Real Competitive Targets

The Compound Interest Approach to Competitive Performance

Trend of Costs for Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM Chips)

U.S. Farm Technology Improvements

Effective Costs of Cellular Telephone Service in Current Dollars

Bell System Employee Productivity

Bell System Employee Productivity

Constant Percentage Rate of Improvement

Most new technologies fit this trend pattern

Rates will remain the same if the basic assumptions are unchanged: The improvement is technically possible The product demand/need continues Basic approach remains the same

Subsidies may increase short term rates

Laws and regulations may decrease short term rates

Growth Models and Performance Envelopes

A frequently observed pattern for technologies which have natural limitsex. how many eggs can a

chicken physically lay each day? therefore, what is the maximum

possible egg production rate for a Tyson chicken farm?

Growth Model Forecast of Egg Production Model

Average Cost of Residential Electric Service in 1967 Dollars

Airline Development-1

Airline Development

Year Seats Speed Seat MPH

Type

1927 10 100 1,000 Ford Trimotor

1932 14 140 2,000 Various Ave

1937 21 190 4,000 Douglas DC-3

1942 40 200 8,000 Douglas DC-4

1947 50 320 16,000 Lockheed 749

1952 64 500 32,000 DeHavilland Comet

1957 64,000

Airliner Development -2

Airliner Development-3

Airliner Development-4

Airliner Development-5

Natural Limits and Constraints

Setting Competitive Targets

Precursor Patterns and Trends

Random Access Memory Historical Development

Annual Sales of Consumer Electronics (sales in $1,000s)

How Can You Judge a Forecast Before the Fact?

Are assumptions specified? Is quantitative evidence included? Does it follow a path of logic? Is the projected rate of

improvement comparable to prior rates?

If the forecast breaks from the past are substantial reasons offered?

Does it provide a basis for rational discussion?

Multiple trends in life expectancy