Th E i f NThe Economics of News Media Slant

Jesse M. ShapiroAssistant Professor of Economics

Research joint with Matthew Gentzkow

Says Who?

• November 30, 2003 battle in Iraq...

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Says Who?

• In one of the deadliest reported firefights in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime USsince the fall of Saddam Hussein s regime, US forces killed at least 54 Iraqis and captured eight others while fending off simultaneous convoy

b h S d i th th it f Sambushes Sunday in the northern city of Samarra.

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Says Who?

• American commanders vowed Monday that the killing of as many as 54 insurgents in this centralkilling of as many as 54 insurgents in this central Iraqi town would serve as a lesson to those fighting the United States, but Iraqis disputed the death toll

d id i t A i ld l iand said anger against America would only rise.

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Says Who?• The US military has vowed to continue aggressive

tactics after saying it killed 54 Iraqis following an ambush, but commanders admitted they had no proof to back up their claims. The only corpses at Samarra's hospital were those of civilians,Samarra s hospital were those of civilians, including two elderly Iranian visitors and a child.

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Media Slant• Same underlying events, very different

impressionsp

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So What?

• Is this just packaging?• Does it affect

– How people vote?– How they see the world?

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Effects of News Media

• Effects on voting“Fox News Effect” (Della Vigna & Kaplan 2007)– Fox News Effect (Della Vigna & Kaplan, 2007)

• Effects on worldview– Attitudes in Muslim countries (Gentzkow & Shapiro ( p

2004)• Effects on public policy

Ne s dro ghts (Eisensee & Stromberg 2007)– News droughts (Eisensee & Stromberg 2007)

Implications

• News media have power to change “hearts and minds”minds

• How do they wield that power?• Is Fox’s political slant driven byp y

– Rupert Murdoch?– Its customers?

S thi l ?– Something else?

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Economic Framework

• Media firm has two objectivesCater to customers (advertising $)– Cater to customers (advertising $)

– Cater to owner ideology• Firm trades these off

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What do Media Customers Want?

• Evidence that consumers gravitate to like-minded sourcessources…

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Attraction to Like-minded Sources

40

Fox News NPR

20

30

40

Percent who watch

/ li

0

10

very moderate very liberal

/ listen regularly

very conservative

moderate very liberal

Respondent Political Views

12Source: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (2004)

Perceptions of Like-minded Sources

40

Fox News NPR

20

30

40Percent

who believe all or most

0

10

very moderate very liberal

all or most of what

outlet says

very conservative

moderate very liberal

Respondent Political Views

13Source: Gentzkow and Shapiro (2006)

Is it a Two-Way Street?

• Fox affects its customers• Do its customers affect FOX?Do its customers affect FOX?• “Demand-driven bias”

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Systematic Evidence

• Need large-scale, quantitative evidence on determinants of media slantdeterminants of media slant

• Hard to measure• Hand-coding of content: slow, hard to scaleg

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Our Approach

• Study political use of language• Example from “Luntz memo”: “Never sayExample from Luntz memo : Never say

‘privatization/private accounts.’ Instead say ‘personalization/personal accounts.’ Two thirds of America want to personalizeTwo-thirds of America want to personalize Social Security while only one-third would privatize it. Why? Personalizing Social Security suggests ownership and controlSecurity suggests ownership and control over your retirement savings, while privatizing it suggests a profit motive and

i d l ”winners and losers.”

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The Back BenchesThe Back Benches

600

Republicans Democrats

400

500

Uses in 2005

200

300Uses in 2005

Congress

0

100

"personal accounts""private accounts"17

Lessons

• Economic: strategic use of language• Statistical: can infer party/ideology from language• Statistical: can infer party/ideology from language

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Estimating Newspaper SlantEstimating Newspaper Slant• Identify partisan language using computer

algorithm based on Congressional speech• Compute index of whether newspaper “talks” more

like a Congressional Republican or a Democrat

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Some Well known PapersSome Well-known Papers

SF ChronicleSF Chronicle RelativelyRelatively liberalliberal

Washington PostWashington Post

New York TimesNew York TimesNew York TimesNew York Times

USA TodayUSA Today

W ll St t J lW ll St t J lWall Street JournalWall Street Journal

Washington TimesWashington Times

Houston ChronicleHouston Chronicle RelativelyRelatively conservativeconservative20

Washington Post Washington Times

Same-sex couplesline up early for a

Homosexuals 'marry' in Massachusetts

marriage made in MassachusettsAnniversary of U.S.-led invasion of Iraq

Anniversary of Operation Iraqi Freedom

h h b d f i hThe uproar wrought by 'religious' films

From despair comes faith-based film

V t t t t L k t kl d thVote on estate tax Lawmakers tackle death tax

GOP ll fo ta c ts B h ge ta elief o eGOP call for tax cutsrenews party divide

Bush urges tax relief over more spending

Does Content follow Customer?Does Content follow Customer?

Newspaper frequency of "death tax" relative to

"estate ta ""estate tax"

Very liberal Very Conservative

Ideology of newspaper's market (city)

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Do Owners Matter Too?

• No evidence that two papers with same owner look more similar than two papers with different ownersmore similar than two papers with different owners

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City Folk in South CarolinaCity Folk in South Carolina

Rock Hill HeraldRock Hill Herald RelativelyRelatively liberalliberal

Greenville NewsGreenville News

Columbia StateColumbia State

Charleston Post & CourierCharleston Post & CourierCharleston Post & CourierCharleston Post & Courier

Spartanburg HeraldSpartanburg Herald--JournalJournalJournalJournalMyrtle Beach SunMyrtle Beach Sun--NewsNews

Anderson IndependentAnderson Independent--MailMail

RelativelyRelatively conservativeconservative24

Conclusions

• Different sources treat the same news very differentlydifferently

• These differences can be quantified• Portrayals influence policyy p y

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Demand

• Consumers gravitate to like-minded sources• Creates an incentive to target content• Creates an incentive to target content

Supply

• Firms do tailor news to suit customers• Owners don’t seem “willing to pay” to deviate• Owners don t seem willing to pay to deviate

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