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The Balancing Act:Perspectives of the Global and Domestic Oil MarketsFrederick J. LawrenceVice President - Economics and International Affairs
Alien Vs. PredatorDemand appears to be driving Fundamentals in a Tight Market is it Sustainable? Global Economy, Asia Growth Components & More?World demand up an estimated 2.7 Mmb/d (3.4%)US demand up 460,000 b/d (2.4%) & China demand up an estimated 860,000 b/d (16.5%) in 2004.+Supply Reacts to Demand and Price but hitting Capacity limitationsOPEC & Non-OPEC Potential Market Share vs. ReservesSpare Capacity & Just in Time Behavior narrow the gapEnergy Security, Interdependence & Diversification growing connectivity between foreign and domestic policy
= INCREASED VOLATILITY & FEAR FACTOR
Chart1
40
25
25
8
3
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
2003 US Energy Shares
2003 US Energy Share
Chart2
37
24
26
6
6
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
2003 World Energy Shares
World Energy Shares (2003)
Coal - 26 %
Oil - 37%
Nuclear - 6 %
Natural Gas - 24 %
Hydro -6%
Sheet1
2003 US Energy Shares
Oil40
Natural Gas25
Coal25
Nuclear8
Hydro3
2003 World Energy Shares
Oil37
Natural Gas24
Coal26
Nuclear6
Hydro6
2003 Emerging Market Economies
Oil36.81
Natural Gas17.1
Coal37.11
Nuclear1.11
Hydro7.87
Sheet2
Sheet3
Where is the incremental demand coming from by region?
Demand is breaking out and were en route to 90 Mmb/d QUARTERLY AVERAGEYEARLY AVERAGE
China Growth Spurt
China will continue to be a big part of the demand story.
Dont discount growth in the rest of Asia especially India
UN Perspectives on Sustainability
Global Population Surge
US Supply Consumption Imports
9.63746.822.7
8.34963.140.1
6.84767.450
6.25273.956.6
5.88175.855.6
5.4482.461.3
&A
Page &P
Source: EIA
US Production
World Petroleum Consumption
Import %
Mmb/d
Percent
My Oil Cycle
Vermont
54.34
4.89
0.06
26.65
5.5
5.32
Vermont - 2001
Vermont Energy Shares - 2001
Texas
45.9
36.87
12.42
3.31
0.1
0.62
Texas - 2001
Texas Energy Shares - 2001
California
45.9
32.01
0.86
4.42
3.26
1.92
California - 2001
California Energy Shares - 2001
US
39.79
24.67
24.98
7.92
2.65
2.94
US - 2003
US Energy Shares - 2003
China
23.36
2.5
67.87
0.83
5.43
China - 2003
China Energy Shares - 2003
Per Capital Consumption
13.3
20.5
33.3
172.3
177.8
195.3
218.7
339.1
Source: EIA 2002 Est. Data
Per Capital Energy Consumption of Selected Countries
Million BTU per Person
Reserves
262.7259.4
115115
130.7125.8
97.892.2
96.599
69.160
30.721.891
16.9178.8
7877.226
1614.6
10.610.6
3639
34.332.255
23.718.25
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review and Oil & Gas Journal Survey
BP Statistics 1/2004
Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
Billion barrels
Look at Oil Reserves
Reserves Alignment
85.8
882
178.8
86.9
Oil Reserves
Billion barrels
Alignment of Oil Reserves
Production
9.817
8.543
7.454
3.852
3.789
3.396
3.26
2.987
2.986
2.52
2.245
2.238
2.185
1.857
1.552
1.488
1.344
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review
Crude Production
Million barrels per day
Comparative Oil Production
Bloc Production
21.185
30.383
35.917
10.477
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review
Crude Production
Million barrels per day
Production by Bloc
Import Sensitivity
2.069
1.639
2.458
1.026
0.253
2.536
0.407
1.424
0.229
0.214
Source: BP 2004
US Import Sensitivity - 2003
Import Regions
6.16
1.28
2.94
1.424
0.44
Source: BP 2004 Statistics
50%
24%
12%
10%
4%
US Import Sensitivity - 2003
OPEC & Mid East Oil
5636
2911
2477
Source: EIA
5.6 Mmb/d
2.9 Mmb/d
2.5 Mmb/d
Source: EIA
Preliminary 2004 Imports
Preliminary 2004 Petroleum Imports
Refining
3365556
3098439
2939557
27611517
27211881
27412431
26813151
27312689
27912902
27613884
28214982
29615071
30814955
31913796
32412752
30112172
25811947
24712216
22312165
21612826
21912003
21313447
20413551
20513610
20213508
19913600
18713851
17914032
17514119
17014337
16414838
16315113
15915080
15815299
15515369
15315180
14915304
13215446
&A
Page &P
# Operable Refineries
Gross Input to Distillation Units
# Operable Refineries
Gross Input
Refinery Situation
Forecast US Oil Supply
2.991.720.97
2.632.580.81
2.422.190.88
2.242.110.86
2.092.030.61
Source: EIA
Lower 48 Onshore
Lower 48 Offshore
Alaska
Million barrels per day
Forecasted US Oil Supply
Projected Wells Drilled
30.08
27.67
29.33
29.59
26.96
Total Lower 48 Wells Drilled
Thousands
Balance
209.099.65
22.989.6111.31
24.679.2713.28
26.329.2114.8
27.938.8216.11
Source: EIA
US consumption
US production
US net imports
Million barrels per day
US Petroleum Balance
Oil Deficit
113.78
125.14
153.97
180.07
215.89
Source: EIA
US Oil Deficit
Billion 2003 Dollars
Domestic Data
20032010201520202025
Lower 48 Onshore2.992.632.422.242.09
Lower 48 Offshore1.722.582.192.112.03
Alaska0.970.810.880.860.61
Total Lower 48 Wells Drilled
30.0827.6729.3329.5926.96
US consumption2022.9824.6726.3227.931.5% growth
US production9.099.619.279.218.82-0.10%
US net imports9.6511.3113.2814.816.112.4% growth
18.7420.9222.5524.0124.93
World79.691.65100.38110.14120.471.9% growth
Net Expenditures for Imported Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Billion 2003 dollars)
US Oil Deficit113.78125.14153.97180.07215.893.0% growth - oil import deficit is one-quarter of our entire trade deficit
Data
World Petroleum ConsumptionUS ProductionImport %
1970 - DOB46.89.63722.7
1987-1st Motorcycle63.18.34940.1
1993-Jeffords Near Miss67.46.84750
1998-Enter Energy73.96.25256.6
1999-Start at IPAA75.85.88155.6
2004-Today82.45.4461.3
PetroleumNatural GasCoalNuclearHydroWoodRenewablesNuke + Renewables
Vermont - 200154.344.890.0626.655.55.3216.4443.09
Texas - 200145.936.8712.423.310.10.620.834.14
California - 200145.932.010.864.423.261.929.3513.77
US - 200339.7924.6724.987.922.652.946.2614.18
China - 200323.362.567.870.835.43NA18.619.43
India - 200332.817.8553.661.194.52
Brazil - 200346.367.886.061.6537.98
World-200337.3323.9426.476.156.11
OECD-200341.2322.8521.379.365.18
Source: EIA and BP Statistical Review
Per Capital Energy Consumption of Selected CountriesEnergy Intensity
India13.35,255
Indonesia20.55,870
China33.37213
Japan172.37,2222001
France177.87,529
Russia195.330,2392001
Saudi Arabia218.717,820
US339.19348
Oil ReservesBP Statistics 1/2004Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
Saudi Arabia262.7259.4note decline since 2002 from 262.8
Iraq115115lots of work to do here - potential upside
Iran130.7125.8
UAE97.892.2
Kuwait96.599
Russia69.160
US30.721.891
Canada16.9178.8
Venezuela7877.226
Mexico1614.6
Brazil10.610.6
Libya3639
Nigeria34.332.255
China23.718.25
OECD85.8
OPEC882885.18876.90%
non-OPEC178.815.6
FSU86.97.6
Crude Production
Saudi Arabia9.817US Import Sensitivity - 2003
Russia8.543
US7.454Canada2.069North & South America6.16
Iran3.852Mexico1.639Europe and FSU1.28
Mexico3.789South & Central America2.458Middle East and North Africa2.94
China3.396Europe1.026West Africa1.424
Norway3.26FSU0.253Asia and Other0.44
Venezuela2.987Middle East2.536
Canada2.986North Africa0.407
UAE2.52Wst Africa1.424Preliminary 2004 Imports
United Kingdom2.245Asia0.229OPEC5636
Kuwait2.238Other0.214Arab OPEC2911
Nigeria2.185Persian Gulf2477
Algeria1.857
Brazil1.552
Libya1.488
Iraq1.344
OECD21.185
OPEC30.383# Operable RefineriesGross Input to Distillation UnitsPetroleum Products Supplied
non-OPEC35.917excludes fsu19493365,5565763
FSU10.47719603098,4399797
19652939,55711512
197027611,51714697
US Production Forecast197127211,88115212
197227412,43116367
197326813,15117308
197427312,68916653
197527912,90216322
197627613,88417461
197728214,98218431
197829615,07118847
197930814,95518513
198031913,79617056
198132412,75216058
198230112,17215296
198325811,94715231
198424712,21615726
198522312,16515726
198621612,82616281
198721912,00316665
198821313,44717283
198920413,55117325
199020513,61016988
199120213,50816714
199219913,60017033
199318713,85117237
199417914,03217718
199517514,11917725
199617014,33718309
199716414,83818620
199816315,11318917
199915915,08019519
200015815,29919701
200115515,36919649
200215315,18019761
200314915,30420034
200413215,44620449
Real GDP
103816.92
130846.23
152165.7
176345.23
202924.81
&A
Page &P
Source: EIA
Real GDP
Energy Intensity
Billions 2000 Chain-Weighted $
Thousand BTU per 2000 $ of GDP
Macroeconomic Indicators
Population
3.1750361.3222731.0869170.3000380.1611510.2253130.182798
3.3636751.3648751.1738060.3149210.1817530.2383740.192879
3.5620431.4023211.2463510.3296690.2044650.2504280.20197
3.7560411.4294731.3122120.344270.2273950.2610530.209793
3.942791.44511.3692840.358030.2497660.2701130.216372
4.7077721.3951821.5314380.4086950.34870.2937970.23314
Source: UN Population Division
Rest of World
China
India
USA
Pakistan
Indonesia
Brazil
Billions
GDP Data
Real GDP
Energy Intensity
2003103816.92
2010130846.23
2015152165.7
2020176345.23
2025202924.81
Average growth of 3.1% per year
WorldAsiaUSAChinaIndiaPakistanIndonesiaBrazilRest of WorldRussian Federation
20056.4535263.9175080.3000381.3222731.0869170.1611510.2253130.1827983.1750360.141553
20106.8302834.1489480.3149211.3648751.1738060.1817530.2383740.1928793.3636750.137501
20157.1972474.3705220.3296691.4023211.2463510.2044650.2504280.201973.5620430.133429
20207.5402374.5701310.344271.4294731.3122120.2273950.2610530.2097933.7560410.129018
20257.8514554.7422320.358031.44511.3692840.2497660.2701130.2163723.942790.124428
20508.9187245.2220580.4086951.3951821.5314380.34870.2937970.233144.7077720.101456
Peak in 2030 and slow due to 1 Child Policypass China around 2035
59%1 child policypass Chinadoubles
NG Production
19.07
20.42
20.77
21.89
21.83
Dry Production
Trillion Cubic Feet
Natural Gas Balance
NG Supply
19.074.130.44-0.27
20.422.572.5-0.06
20.772.984.33-0.21
21.892.695.54-0.27
21.832.556.37-0.17
Dry Production
Canada
LNG
Other
Tcf
Natural Gas Supply
NG Consumption
104.966.99
10.836.747.87
11.318.398.26
11.869.458.64
12.249.439
Other Consumption
Electric Power
Industrial
Tcf
Natural Gas Consumption
NG Data
Natural Gas
Dry ProductionCanadaLNGOtherConsumptionElectric PowerIndustrialOther Consumption
200319.074.130.44-0.2721.954.966.9910
201020.422.572.5-0.0625.446.747.8710.83
201520.772.984.33-0.2127.968.398.2611.31
202021.892.695.54-0.2729.959.458.6411.86
202521.832.556.37-0.1730.679.43912.24
Demand Bites
Projected Global Petroleum Demand
Sino-Russian Oil Balance
104052275
93262411
80382662
71732913
64193145
62883390
61143672
62273935
61694047
61784416
65364985
70565030
76985379
85435982
92006300
Source: 2002 BP Statistical Review of World Energy & EIA
Source: BP & EIA - 2004 data forecasted
Russia Federation Production
China Demand
Thousand barrels per day
Sino-Russian Oil Balance
Comparative Reserve Base
30.7
69.1
262.7
115
23.7
Source: 2003 BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Reserves
Billion barrels
Proved Oil Reserves
Demand
57.695.37.772.185.16
65.745.79.792.797.63
70.975.7211.013.489.2
76.85.6912.224.3711.06
82.965.8413.595.2912.79
Source: EIA
Other
Japan
Rest of Asia
India
China
Million barrels per day
Supply
38.3920.97.937.671.66
41.2624.459.559.983.14
42.0926.8711.110.624.46
42.9432.3713.0110.95.23
43.6338.4715.0811.116.22
Source: EIA
Other
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Caspian
Million barrels per day
Projected Source of Global Conventional Supply
Data
Russia Production & ExportsReservesProjected Petroleum Demand
Production -FSURussia Federation ExportsChina DemandRussian Production - Chinese DemandRussia Federation ConsumptionFSU ProductionRussia Federation ProductionProved ReservesConsumption-FSUUSRussiaSaudi ArabiaIraqChinaTotal DemandChinaRest of AsiaIndiaJapanOther
1975993580.4752030.769.1262.711523.7200278.15.167.772.185.357.69
1976105207780201091.657.639.792.795.765.74
19771105581252015100.389.211.013.485.7270.97
1978115957184802020110.1411.0612.224.375.6976.8
19791187086402025120.4712.7913.595.295.8482.96
198012215638795
198112330639155Projected Petroleum Supply
1982123759095Total SupplyRussiaCaspianMiddle EastAfricaOther
1983124508970200276.557.671.6620.97.9338.39
1984122558980201088.389.983.1424.459.5541.26
198511930618950201595.1410.624.4626.8711.142.09
19861240088802020104.4510.95.2332.3713.0142.94
19871260589352025114.5111.116.2238.4715.0843.63
19881261058.58830
1989122708795
19901097521702275813050151156510405578540
19919992186024116915488810472932657
19927632229826625376449491498038
1993673024362913426037888196717348.4/57
1994613525313145327432677391641949/57
1995599527313390289829347297628849/57
19965850323936722442260671716114
1997592034133935229225937377622748.6/65.4
1998585435694047212224847391616948.6/65.4
1999607940194416176225347551617857/65.4
2000647942734985155124748013653648.6/65.3
200170494679503020262456705648.6/65.4
200276985370537923192480769860
2003854347285982256125038543
2004630029009200
Frederick Lawrence:From MER Table 11.1b
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Sheet2
Sheet3
Proved Oil Reserves Not Created Equal
Sino-Russian Oil Balance
104052275
93262411
80382662
71732913
64193145
62883390
61143672
62273935
61694047
61784416
65364985
70565030
76985379
85435982
92006300
Source: 2002 BP Statistical Review of World Energy & EIA
Source: BP & EIA - 2004 data forecasted
Russia Federation Production
China Demand
Thousand barrels per day
Sino-Russian Oil Balance
Comparative Reserve Base
262.7259.4
115115
130.7125.8
97.892.2
96.599
69.160
30.721.891
16.9178.8
7877.226
1614.6
10.610.6
3639
34.332.255
23.718.25
Source: 2003 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and Oil & Gas Journal
BP Statistics 1/2004
Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
Billion barrels
Demand
57.695.37.772.185.16
65.745.79.792.797.63
70.975.7211.013.489.2
76.85.6912.224.3711.06
82.965.8413.595.2912.79
Source: EIA
Other
Japan
Rest of Asia
India
China
Million barrels per day
Projected Global Petroleum Demand
Supply
38.3920.97.937.671.66
41.2624.459.559.983.14
42.0926.8711.110.624.46
42.9432.3713.0110.95.23
43.6338.4715.0811.116.22
Source: EIA
Other
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Caspian
Million barrels per day
Projected Source of Global Conventional Supply
Data
Russia Production & ExportsReservesProjected Petroleum Demand
Production -FSURussia Federation ExportsChina DemandRussian Production - Chinese DemandRussia Federation ConsumptionFSU ProductionRussia Federation ProductionProved ReservesConsumption-FSUUSRussiaSaudi ArabiaIraqChinaTotal DemandChinaRest of AsiaIndiaJapanOther
1975993580.4752030.769.1262.711523.7200278.15.167.772.185.357.69
1976105207780201091.657.639.792.795.765.74
19771105581252015100.389.211.013.485.7270.97
1978115957184802020110.1411.0612.224.375.6976.8
19791187086402025120.4712.7913.595.295.8482.96
198012215638795
198112330639155Projected Petroleum Supply
1982123759095Total SupplyRussiaCaspianMiddle EastAfricaOther
1983124508970200276.557.671.6620.97.9338.39
1984122558980201088.389.983.1424.459.5541.26
198511930618950201595.1410.624.4626.8711.142.09
19861240088802020104.4510.95.2332.3713.0142.94
19871260589352025114.5111.116.2238.4715.0843.63
19881261058.58830Oil ReservesBP Statistics 1/2004Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
1989122708795
19901097521702275813050151156510405578540Saudi Arabia262.7259.4
19919992186024116915488810472932657Iraq115115
19927632229826625376449491498038Iran130.7125.8
1993673024362913426037888196717348.4/57UAE97.892.2
1994613525313145327432677391641949/57Kuwait96.599
1995599527313390289829347297628849/57Russia69.160
19965850323936722442260671716114US30.721.891
1997592034133935229225937377622748.6/65.4Canada16.9178.8
1998585435694047212224847391616948.6/65.4Venezuela7877.226
1999607940194416176225347551617857/65.4Mexico1614.6
2000647942734985155124748013653648.6/65.3Brazil10.610.6
200170494679503020262456705648.6/65.4Libya3639
200276985370537923192480769860Nigeria34.332.255
2003854347285982256125038543China23.718.25
2004630029009200
Frederick Lawrence:From MER Table 11.1b
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Sheet2
Sheet3
Supply is also adapting to a new threshold but can it be maintained?
Comparative Oil Production
US Supply Consumption Imports
9.63746.822.7
8.34963.140.1
6.84767.450
6.25273.956.6
5.88175.855.6
5.4482.461.3
&A
Page &P
Source: EIA
US Production
World Petroleum Consumption
Import %
Mmb/d
Percent
My Oil Cycle
Vermont
54.34
4.89
0.06
26.65
5.5
5.32
Vermont - 2001
Vermont Energy Shares - 2001
Texas
45.9
36.87
12.42
3.31
0.1
0.62
Texas - 2001
Texas Energy Shares - 2001
California
45.9
32.01
0.86
4.42
3.26
1.92
California - 2001
California Energy Shares - 2001
US
39.79
24.67
24.98
7.92
2.65
2.94
US - 2003
US Energy Shares - 2003
China
23.36
2.5
67.87
0.83
5.43
China - 2003
China Energy Shares - 2003
Per Capital Consumption
13.3
20.5
33.3
172.3
177.8
195.3
218.7
339.1
Source: EIA 2002 Est. Data
Per Capital Energy Consumption of Selected Countries
Million BTU per Person
Reserves
262.7259.4
115115
130.7125.8
97.892.2
96.599
69.160
30.721.891
16.9178.8
7877.226
1614.6
10.610.6
3639
34.332.255
23.718.25
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review and Oil & Gas Journal Survey
BP Statistics 1/2004
Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
Billion barrels
Look at Oil Reserves
Reserves Alignment
85.8
882
178.8
86.9
Oil Reserves
Billion barrels
Alignment of Oil Reserves
Production
9.817
8.543
7.454
3.852
3.789
3.396
3.26
2.987
2.986
2.52
2.245
2.238
2.185
1.857
1.552
1.488
1.344
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review
Crude Production
Million barrels per day
Bloc Production
21.185
30.383
35.917
10.477
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review
Crude Production
Million barrels per day
Production by Bloc
Import Sensitivity
2.069
1.639
2.458
1.026
0.253
2.536
0.407
1.424
0.229
0.214
Source: BP 2004
US Import Sensitivity - 2003
Import Regions
6.16
1.28
2.94
1.424
0.44
Source: BP 2004 Statistics
50%
24%
12%
10%
4%
US Import Sensitivity - 2003
OPEC & Mid East Oil
5636
2911
2477
Source: EIA
5.6 Mmb/d
2.9 Mmb/d
2.5 Mmb/d
Source: EIA
Preliminary 2004 Imports
Preliminary 2004 Petroleum Imports
Refining
3365556
3098439
2939557
27611517
27211881
27412431
26813151
27312689
27912902
27613884
28214982
29615071
30814955
31913796
32412752
30112172
25811947
24712216
22312165
21612826
21912003
21313447
20413551
20513610
20213508
19913600
18713851
17914032
17514119
17014337
16414838
16315113
15915080
15815299
15515369
15315180
14915304
13215446
&A
Page &P
# Operable Refineries
Gross Input to Distillation Units
# Operable Refineries
Gross Input
Refinery Situation
Data
World Petroleum ConsumptionUS ProductionImport %
1970 - DOB46.89.63722.7
1987-1st Motorcycle63.18.34940.1
1993-Jeffords Near Miss67.46.84750
1998-Enter Energy73.96.25256.6
1999-Start at IPAA75.85.88155.6
2004-Today82.45.4461.3
PetroleumNatural GasCoalNuclearHydroWoodRenewablesNuke + Renewables
Vermont - 200154.344.890.0626.655.55.3216.4443.09
Texas - 200145.936.8712.423.310.10.620.834.14
California - 200145.932.010.864.423.261.929.3513.77
US - 200339.7924.6724.987.922.652.946.2614.18
China - 200323.362.567.870.835.43NA18.619.43
India - 200332.817.8553.661.194.52
Brazil - 200346.367.886.061.6537.98
World-200337.3323.9426.476.156.11
OECD-200341.2322.8521.379.365.18
Source: EIA and BP Statistical Review
Per Capital Energy Consumption of Selected CountriesEnergy Intensity
India13.35,255
Indonesia20.55,870
China33.37213
Japan172.37,2222001
France177.87,529
Russia195.330,2392001
Saudi Arabia218.717,820
US339.19348
Oil ReservesBP Statistics 1/2004Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
Saudi Arabia262.7259.4note decline since 2002 from 262.8
Iraq115115lots of work to do here - potential upside
Iran130.7125.8
UAE97.892.2
Kuwait96.599
Russia69.160
US30.721.891
Canada16.9178.8
Venezuela7877.226
Mexico1614.6
Brazil10.610.6
Libya3639
Nigeria34.332.255
China23.718.25
OECD85.8
OPEC882885.18876.90%
non-OPEC178.815.6
FSU86.97.6
Crude Production
Saudi Arabia9.817US Import Sensitivity - 2003
Russia8.543
US7.454Canada2.069North & South America6.16
Iran3.852Mexico1.639Europe and FSU1.28
Mexico3.789South & Central America2.458Middle East and North Africa2.94
China3.396Europe1.026West Africa1.424
Norway3.26FSU0.253Asia and Other0.44
Venezuela2.987Middle East2.536
Canada2.986North Africa0.407
UAE2.52Wst Africa1.424Preliminary 2004 Imports
United Kingdom2.245Asia0.229OPEC5636
Kuwait2.238Other0.214Arab OPEC2911
Nigeria2.185Persian Gulf2477
Algeria1.857
Brazil1.552
Libya1.488
Iraq1.344
OECD21.185
OPEC30.383# Operable RefineriesGross Input to Distillation UnitsPetroleum Products Supplied
non-OPEC35.917excludes fsu19493365,5565763
FSU10.47719603098,4399797
19652939,55711512
197027611,51714697
197127211,88115212
197227412,43116367
197326813,15117308
197427312,68916653
197527912,90216322
197627613,88417461
197728214,98218431
197829615,07118847
197930814,95518513
198031913,79617056
198132412,75216058
198230112,17215296
198325811,94715231
198424712,21615726
198522312,16515726
198621612,82616281
198721912,00316665
198821313,44717283
198920413,55117325
199020513,61016988
199120213,50816714
199219913,60017033
199318713,85117237
199417914,03217718
199517514,11917725
199617014,33718309
199716414,83818620
199816315,11318917
199915915,08019519
200015815,29919701
200115515,36919649
200215315,18019761
200314915,30420034
200413215,44620449
Real GDP
103816.92
130846.23
152165.7
176345.23
202924.81
&A
Page &P
Source: EIA
Real GDP
Energy Intensity
Billions 2000 Chain-Weighted $
Thousand BTU per 2000 $ of GDP
Macroeconomic Indicators
Population
3.1750361.3222731.0869170.3000380.1611510.2253130.182798
3.3636751.3648751.1738060.3149210.1817530.2383740.192879
3.5620431.4023211.2463510.3296690.2044650.2504280.20197
3.7560411.4294731.3122120.344270.2273950.2610530.209793
3.942791.44511.3692840.358030.2497660.2701130.216372
4.7077721.3951821.5314380.4086950.34870.2937970.23314
Source: UN Population Division
Rest of World
China
India
USA
Pakistan
Indonesia
Brazil
Billions
Global Population Surge
GDP Data
Real GDP
Energy Intensity
2003103816.92
2010130846.23
2015152165.7
2020176345.23
2025202924.81
Average growth of 3.1% per year
WorldAsiaUSAChinaIndiaPakistanIndonesiaBrazilRest of WorldRussian Federation
20056.4535263.9175080.3000381.3222731.0869170.1611510.2253130.1827983.1750360.141553
20106.8302834.1489480.3149211.3648751.1738060.1817530.2383740.1928793.3636750.137501
20157.1972474.3705220.3296691.4023211.2463510.2044650.2504280.201973.5620430.133429
20207.5402374.5701310.344271.4294731.3122120.2273950.2610530.2097933.7560410.129018
20257.8514554.7422320.358031.44511.3692840.2497660.2701130.2163723.942790.124428
20508.9187245.2220580.4086951.3951821.5314380.34870.2937970.233144.7077720.101456
Peak in 2030 and slow due to 1 Child Policypass China around 2035
59%1 child policypass Chinadoubles
NG Production
19.07
20.42
20.77
21.89
21.83
Dry Production
Trillion Cubic Feet
Natural Gas Balance
NG Supply
19.074.130.44-0.27
20.422.572.5-0.06
20.772.984.33-0.21
21.892.695.54-0.27
21.832.556.37-0.17
Dry Production
Canada
LNG
Other
Tcf
Natural Gas Supply
NG Consumption
104.966.99
10.836.747.87
11.318.398.26
11.869.458.64
12.249.439
Other Consumption
Electric Power
Industrial
Tcf
Natural Gas Consumption
NG Data
Natural Gas
Dry ProductionCanadaLNGOtherConsumptionElectric PowerIndustrialOther Consumption
200319.074.130.44-0.2721.954.966.9910
201020.422.572.5-0.0625.446.747.8710.83
201520.772.984.33-0.2127.968.398.2611.31
202021.892.695.54-0.2729.959.458.6411.86
202521.832.556.37-0.1730.679.43912.24
OPEC is building capacity and trying to manage production based on demand.
Non-OPEC has captured market share but sustainability in question.
Former Soviet Union Dominates Non-OPEC Supply Gain
Pragmatic Oil Diplomacy
Projected Source of Global Conventional Oil Supply
Sino-Russian Oil Balance
104052275
93262411
80382662
71732913
64193145
62883390
61143672
62273935
61694047
61784416
65364985
70565030
76985379
85435982
92006300
Source: 2002 BP Statistical Review of World Energy & EIA
Source: BP & EIA - 2004 data forecasted
Russia Federation Production
China Demand
Thousand barrels per day
Sino-Russian Oil Balance
Comparative Reserve Base
30.7
69.1
262.7
115
23.7
Source: 2003 BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Reserves
Billion barrels
Proved Oil Reserves
Demand
57.695.37.772.185.16
65.745.79.792.797.63
70.975.7211.013.489.2
76.85.6912.224.3711.06
82.965.8413.595.2912.79
Source: EIA
Other
Japan
Rest of Asia
India
China
Million barrels per day
Projected Global Petroleum Demand
Supply
38.3920.97.937.671.66
41.2624.459.559.983.14
42.0926.8711.110.624.46
42.9432.3713.0110.95.23
43.6338.4715.0811.116.22
Source: EIA
Other
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Caspian
Million barrels per day
Data
Russia Production & ExportsReservesProjected Petroleum Demand
Production -FSURussia Federation ExportsChina DemandRussian Production - Chinese DemandRussia Federation ConsumptionFSU ProductionRussia Federation ProductionProved ReservesConsumption-FSUUSRussiaSaudi ArabiaIraqChinaTotal DemandChinaRest of AsiaIndiaJapanOther
1975993580.4752030.769.1262.711523.7200278.15.167.772.185.357.69
1976105207780201091.657.639.792.795.765.74
19771105581252015100.389.211.013.485.7270.97
1978115957184802020110.1411.0612.224.375.6976.8
19791187086402025120.4712.7913.595.295.8482.96
198012215638795
198112330639155Projected Petroleum Supply
1982123759095Total SupplyRussiaCaspianMiddle EastAfricaOther
1983124508970200276.557.671.6620.97.9338.39
1984122558980201088.389.983.1424.459.5541.26
198511930618950201595.1410.624.4626.8711.142.09
19861240088802020104.4510.95.2332.3713.0142.94
19871260589352025114.5111.116.2238.4715.0843.63
19881261058.58830
1989122708795
19901097521702275813050151156510405578540
19919992186024116915488810472932657
19927632229826625376449491498038
1993673024362913426037888196717348.4/57
1994613525313145327432677391641949/57
1995599527313390289829347297628849/57
19965850323936722442260671716114
1997592034133935229225937377622748.6/65.4
1998585435694047212224847391616948.6/65.4
1999607940194416176225347551617857/65.4
2000647942734985155124748013653648.6/65.3
200170494679503020262456705648.6/65.4
200276985370537923192480769860
2003854347285982256125038543
2004630029009200
Frederick Lawrence:From MER Table 11.1b
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Frederick Lawrence:BP
Sheet2
Sheet3
The Wrong Cow is Getting Fat
U.S. Energy Shares (2003)
US Supply Consumption Imports
9.63746.822.7
8.34963.140.1
6.84767.450
6.25273.956.6
5.88175.855.6
5.4482.461.3
&A
Page &P
Source: EIA
US Production
World Petroleum Consumption
Import %
Mmb/d
Percent
My Oil Cycle
Vermont
54.34
4.89
0.06
26.65
5.5
5.32
Vermont - 2001
Vermont Energy Shares - 2001
Texas
45.9
36.87
12.42
3.31
0.1
0.62
Texas - 2001
Texas Energy Shares - 2001
California
45.9
32.01
0.86
4.42
3.26
1.92
California - 2001
California Energy Shares - 2001
US
40
25
25
8
3
3
Source: EIA
US - 2003
Natural Gas - 25%
Coal - 25%
Oil - 40%
Hydro - 3%
Nuclear - 8%
Wood - 3%
China
23.36
2.5
67.87
0.83
5.43
China - 2003
China Energy Shares - 2003
Per Capital Consumption
13.3
20.5
33.3
172.3
177.8
195.3
218.7
339.1
Source: EIA 2002 Est. Data
Per Capital Energy Consumption of Selected Countries
Million BTU per Person
Reserves
262.7259.4
115115
130.7125.8
97.892.2
96.599
69.160
30.721.891
16.9178.8
7877.226
1614.6
10.610.6
3639
34.332.255
23.718.25
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review and Oil & Gas Journal Survey
BP Statistics 1/2004
Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
Billion barrels
Look at Oil Reserves
Reserves Alignment
85.8
882
178.8
86.9
Oil Reserves
Billion barrels
Alignment of Oil Reserves
Production
9.817
8.543
7.454
3.852
3.789
3.396
3.26
2.987
2.986
2.52
2.245
2.238
2.185
1.857
1.552
1.488
1.344
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review
Crude Production
Million barrels per day
Comparative Oil Production
Bloc Production
21.185
30.383
35.917
10.477
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review
Crude Production
Million barrels per day
Production by Bloc
Import Sensitivity
2.069
1.639
2.458
1.026
0.253
2.536
0.407
1.424
0.229
0.214
Source: BP 2004
US Import Sensitivity - 2003
Import Regions
6.16
1.28
2.94
1.424
0.44
Source: BP 2004 Statistics
50%
24%
12%
10%
4%
US Import Sensitivity - 2003
OPEC & Mid East Oil
5636
2911
2477
Source: EIA
5.6 Mmb/d
2.9 Mmb/d
2.5 Mmb/d
Source: EIA
Preliminary 2004 Imports
Preliminary 2004 Petroleum Imports
Refining
3365556
3098439
2939557
27611517
27211881
27412431
26813151
27312689
27912902
27613884
28214982
29615071
30814955
31913796
32412752
30112172
25811947
24712216
22312165
21612826
21912003
21313447
20413551
20513610
20213508
19913600
18713851
17914032
17514119
17014337
16414838
16315113
15915080
15815299
15515369
15315180
14915304
13215446
&A
Page &P
# Operable Refineries
Gross Input to Distillation Units
# Operable Refineries
Gross Input
Refinery Situation
Data
World Petroleum ConsumptionUS ProductionImport %
1970 - DOB46.89.63722.7
1987-1st Motorcycle63.18.34940.1
1993-Jeffords Near Miss67.46.84750
1998-Enter Energy73.96.25256.6
1999-Start at IPAA75.85.88155.6
2004-Today82.45.4461.3
PetroleumNatural GasCoalNuclearHydroWoodRenewablesNuke + Renewables
Vermont - 200154.344.890.0626.655.55.3216.4443.09
Texas - 200145.936.8712.423.310.10.620.834.14
California - 200145.932.010.864.423.261.929.3513.77
US - 2003402525833614
China - 200323.362.567.870.835.43NA18.619.43
India - 200332.817.8553.661.194.52
Brazil - 200346.367.886.061.6537.98
World-200337.3323.9426.476.156.11
OECD-200341.2322.8521.379.365.18
Source: EIA and BP Statistical Review
Per Capital Energy Consumption of Selected CountriesEnergy Intensity
India13.35,255
Indonesia20.55,870
China33.37213
Japan172.37,2222001
France177.87,529
Russia195.330,2392001
Saudi Arabia218.717,820
US339.19348
Oil ReservesBP Statistics 1/2004Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
Saudi Arabia262.7259.4note decline since 2002 from 262.8
Iraq115115lots of work to do here - potential upside
Iran130.7125.8
UAE97.892.2
Kuwait96.599
Russia69.160
US30.721.891
Canada16.9178.8
Venezuela7877.226
Mexico1614.6
Brazil10.610.6
Libya3639
Nigeria34.332.255
China23.718.25
OECD85.8
OPEC882885.18876.90%
non-OPEC178.815.6
FSU86.97.6
Crude Production
Saudi Arabia9.817US Import Sensitivity - 2003
Russia8.543
US7.454Canada2.069North & South America6.16
Iran3.852Mexico1.639Europe and FSU1.28
Mexico3.789South & Central America2.458Middle East and North Africa2.94
China3.396Europe1.026West Africa1.424
Norway3.26FSU0.253Asia and Other0.44
Venezuela2.987Middle East2.536
Canada2.986North Africa0.407
UAE2.52Wst Africa1.424Preliminary 2004 Imports
United Kingdom2.245Asia0.229OPEC5636
Kuwait2.238Other0.214Arab OPEC2911
Nigeria2.185Persian Gulf2477
Algeria1.857
Brazil1.552
Libya1.488
Iraq1.344
OECD21.185
OPEC30.383# Operable RefineriesGross Input to Distillation UnitsPetroleum Products Supplied
non-OPEC35.917excludes fsu19493365,5565763
FSU10.47719603098,4399797
19652939,55711512
197027611,51714697
197127211,88115212
197227412,43116367
197326813,15117308
197427312,68916653
197527912,90216322
197627613,88417461
197728214,98218431
197829615,07118847
197930814,95518513
198031913,79617056
198132412,75216058
198230112,17215296
198325811,94715231
198424712,21615726
198522312,16515726
198621612,82616281
198721912,00316665
198821313,44717283
198920413,55117325
199020513,61016988
199120213,50816714
199219913,60017033
199318713,85117237
199417914,03217718
199517514,11917725
199617014,33718309
199716414,83818620
199816315,11318917
199915915,08019519
200015815,29919701
200115515,36919649
200215315,18019761
200314915,30420034
200413215,44620449
Real GDP
103816.92
130846.23
152165.7
176345.23
202924.81
&A
Page &P
Source: EIA
Real GDP
Energy Intensity
Billions 2000 Chain-Weighted $
Thousand BTU per 2000 $ of GDP
Macroeconomic Indicators
Population
3.1750361.3222731.0869170.3000380.1611510.2253130.182798
3.3636751.3648751.1738060.3149210.1817530.2383740.192879
3.5620431.4023211.2463510.3296690.2044650.2504280.20197
3.7560411.4294731.3122120.344270.2273950.2610530.209793
3.942791.44511.3692840.358030.2497660.2701130.216372
4.7077721.3951821.5314380.4086950.34870.2937970.23314
Source: UN Population Division
Rest of World
China
India
USA
Pakistan
Indonesia
Brazil
Billions
Global Population Surge
GDP Data
Real GDP
Energy Intensity
2003103816.92
2010130846.23
2015152165.7
2020176345.23
2025202924.81
Average growth of 3.1% per year
WorldAsiaUSAChinaIndiaPakistanIndonesiaBrazilRest of WorldRussian Federation
20056.4535263.9175080.3000381.3222731.0869170.1611510.2253130.1827983.1750360.141553
20106.8302834.1489480.3149211.3648751.1738060.1817530.2383740.1928793.3636750.137501
20157.1972474.3705220.3296691.4023211.2463510.2044650.2504280.201973.5620430.133429
20207.5402374.5701310.344271.4294731.3122120.2273950.2610530.2097933.7560410.129018
20257.8514554.7422320.358031.44511.3692840.2497660.2701130.2163723.942790.124428
20508.9187245.2220580.4086951.3951821.5314380.34870.2937970.233144.7077720.101456
Peak in 2030 and slow due to 1 Child Policypass China around 2035
59%1 child policypass Chinadoubles
NG Production
19.07
20.42
20.77
21.89
21.83
Dry Production
Trillion Cubic Feet
Natural Gas Balance
NG Supply
19.074.130.44-0.27
20.422.572.5-0.06
20.772.984.33-0.21
21.892.695.54-0.27
21.832.556.37-0.17
Dry Production
Canada
LNG
Other
Tcf
Natural Gas Supply
NG Consumption
104.966.99
10.836.747.87
11.318.398.26
11.869.458.64
12.249.439
Other Consumption
Electric Power
Industrial
Tcf
Natural Gas Consumption
NG Data
Natural Gas
Dry ProductionCanadaLNGOtherConsumptionElectric PowerIndustrialOther Consumption
200319.074.130.44-0.2721.954.966.9910
201020.422.572.5-0.0625.446.747.8710.83
201520.772.984.33-0.2127.968.398.2611.31
202021.892.695.54-0.2729.959.458.6411.86
202521.832.556.37-0.1730.679.43912.24
U.S. Petroleum Balance
US Supply Consumption Imports
9.63746.822.7
8.34963.140.1
6.84767.450
6.25273.956.6
5.88175.855.6
5.4482.461.3
&A
Page &P
Source: EIA
US Production
World Petroleum Consumption
Import %
Mmb/d
Percent
My Oil Cycle
Vermont
54.34
4.89
0.06
26.65
5.5
5.32
Vermont - 2001
Vermont Energy Shares - 2001
Texas
45.9
36.87
12.42
3.31
0.1
0.62
Texas - 2001
Texas Energy Shares - 2001
California
45.9
32.01
0.86
4.42
3.26
1.92
California - 2001
California Energy Shares - 2001
US
39.79
24.67
24.98
7.92
2.65
2.94
US - 2003
US Energy Shares - 2003
China
23.36
2.5
67.87
0.83
5.43
China - 2003
China Energy Shares - 2003
Per Capital Consumption
13.3
20.5
33.3
172.3
177.8
195.3
218.7
339.1
Source: EIA 2002 Est. Data
Per Capital Energy Consumption of Selected Countries
Million BTU per Person
Reserves
262.7259.4
115115
130.7125.8
97.892.2
96.599
69.160
30.721.891
16.9178.8
7877.226
1614.6
10.610.6
3639
34.332.255
23.718.25
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review and Oil & Gas Journal Survey
BP Statistics 1/2004
Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
Billion barrels
Look at Oil Reserves
Reserves Alignment
85.8
882
178.8
86.9
Oil Reserves
Billion barrels
Alignment of Oil Reserves
Production
9.817
8.543
7.454
3.852
3.789
3.396
3.26
2.987
2.986
2.52
2.245
2.238
2.185
1.857
1.552
1.488
1.344
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review
Crude Production
Million barrels per day
Comparative Oil Production
Bloc Production
21.185
30.383
35.917
10.477
Source: BP 2004 Statistical Review
Crude Production
Million barrels per day
Production by Bloc
Import Sensitivity
2.069
1.639
2.458
1.026
0.253
2.536
0.407
1.424
0.229
0.214
Source: BP 2004
US Import Sensitivity - 2003
Import Regions
6.16
1.28
2.94
1.424
0.44
Source: BP 2004 Statistics
50%
24%
12%
10%
4%
US Import Sensitivity - 2003
OPEC & Mid East Oil
5636
2911
2477
Source: EIA
5.6 Mmb/d
2.9 Mmb/d
2.5 Mmb/d
Source: EIA
Preliminary 2004 Imports
Preliminary 2004 Petroleum Imports
Refining
3365556
3098439
2939557
27611517
27211881
27412431
26813151
27312689
27912902
27613884
28214982
29615071
30814955
31913796
32412752
30112172
25811947
24712216
22312165
21612826
21912003
21313447
20413551
20513610
20213508
19913600
18713851
17914032
17514119
17014337
16414838
16315113
15915080
15815299
15515369
15315180
14915304
13215446
&A
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# Operable Refineries
Gross Input to Distillation Units
# Operable Refineries
Gross Input
Refinery Situation
Forecast US Oil Supply
2.991.720.97
2.632.580.81
2.422.190.88
2.242.110.86
2.092.030.61
Source: EIA
Lower 48 Onshore
Lower 48 Offshore
Alaska
Million barrels per day
Forecasted US Oil Supply
Projected Wells Drilled
30.08
27.67
29.33
29.59
26.96
Total Lower 48 Wells Drilled
Thousands
Balance
209.099.65
22.989.6111.31
24.679.2713.28
26.329.2114.8
27.938.8216.11
Source: EIA
US consumption
US production
US net imports
Million barrels per day
Oil Deficit
113.78
125.14
153.97
180.07
215.89
Source: EIA
US Oil Deficit
Billion 2003 Dollars
Domestic Data
20032010201520202025
Lower 48 Onshore2.992.632.422.242.09
Lower 48 Offshore1.722.582.192.112.03
Alaska0.970.810.880.860.61
Total Lower 48 Wells Drilled
30.0827.6729.3329.5926.96
US consumption2022.9824.6726.3227.931.5% growth
US production9.099.619.279.218.82-0.10%
US net imports9.6511.3113.2814.816.112.4% growth
18.7420.9222.5524.0124.93
World79.691.65100.38110.14120.471.9% growth
Net Expenditures for Imported Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Billion 2003 dollars)
US Oil Deficit113.78125.14153.97180.07215.893.0% growth - oil import deficit is one-quarter of our entire trade deficit
Data
World Petroleum ConsumptionUS ProductionImport %
1970 - DOB46.89.63722.7
1987-1st Motorcycle63.18.34940.1
1993-Jeffords Near Miss67.46.84750
1998-Enter Energy73.96.25256.6
1999-Start at IPAA75.85.88155.6
2004-Today82.45.4461.3
PetroleumNatural GasCoalNuclearHydroWoodRenewablesNuke + Renewables
Vermont - 200154.344.890.0626.655.55.3216.4443.09
Texas - 200145.936.8712.423.310.10.620.834.14
California - 200145.932.010.864.423.261.929.3513.77
US - 200339.7924.6724.987.922.652.946.2614.18
China - 200323.362.567.870.835.43NA18.619.43
India - 200332.817.8553.661.194.52
Brazil - 200346.367.886.061.6537.98
World-200337.3323.9426.476.156.11
OECD-200341.2322.8521.379.365.18
Source: EIA and BP Statistical Review
Per Capital Energy Consumption of Selected CountriesEnergy Intensity
India13.35,255
Indonesia20.55,870
China33.37213
Japan172.37,2222001
France177.87,529
Russia195.330,2392001
Saudi Arabia218.717,820
US339.19348
Oil ReservesBP Statistics 1/2004Oil and Gas Journal 1/2005
Saudi Arabia262.7259.4note decline since 2002 from 262.8
Iraq115115lots of work to do here - potential upside
Iran130.7125.8
UAE97.892.2
Kuwait96.599
Russia69.160
US30.721.891
Canada16.9178.8
Venezuela7877.226
Mexico1614.6
Brazil10.610.6
Libya3639
Nigeria34.332.255
China23.718.25
OECD85.8
OPEC882885.18876.90%
non-OPEC178.815.6
FSU86.97.6
Crude Production
Saudi Arabia9.817US Import Sensitivity - 2003
Russia8.543
US7.454Canada2.069North & South America6.16
Iran3.852Mexico1.639Europe and FSU1.28
Mexico3.789South & Central America2.458Middle East and North Africa2.94
China3.396Europe1.026West Africa1.424
Norway3.26FSU0.253Asia and Other0.44
Venezuela2.987Middle East2.536
Canada2.986North Africa0.407
UAE2.52Wst Africa1.424Preliminary 2004 Imports
United Kingdom2.245Asia0.229OPEC5636
Kuwait2.238Other0.214Arab OPEC2911
Nigeria2.185Persian Gulf2477
Algeria1.857
Brazil1.552
Libya1.488
Iraq1.344
OECD21.185
OPEC30.383# Operable RefineriesGross Input to Distillation UnitsPetroleum Products Supplied
non-OPEC35.917excludes fsu19493365,5565763
FSU10.47719603098,4399797
19652939,55711512
197027611,51714697
US Production Forecast197127211,88115212
197227412,43116367
197326813,15117308
197427312,68916653
197527912,90216322
197627613,88417461
197728214,98218431
197829615,07118847
197930814,95518513
198031913,79617056
198132412,75216058
198230112,17215296
198325811,94715231
198424712,21615726
198522312,16515726
198621612,82616281
198721912,00316665
198821313,44717283
198920413,55117325
199020513,61016988
199120213,50816714
199219913,60017033
199318713,85117237
199417914,03217718
199517514,11917725
199617014,33718309
199716414,83818620
199816315,11318917
199915915,08019519
200015815,29919701
200115515,36919649
200215315,18019761
200314915,30420034
200413215,44620449
Real GDP
103816.92
130846.23
152165.7
176345.23
202924.81
&A
Page &P
Source: EIA
Real GDP
Energy Intensity
Billions 2000 Chain-Weighted $
Thousand BTU per 2000 $ of GDP
Macroeconomic Indicators
Population
3.1750361.3222731.0869170.3000380.1611510.2253130.182798
3.3636751.3648751.1738060.3149210.1817530.2383740.192879
3.5620431.4023211.2463510.3296690.2044650.2504280.20197
3.7560411.4294731.3122120.344270.2273950.2610530.209793
3.942791.44511.3692840.358030.2497660.2701130.216372
4.7077721.3951821.5314380.4086950.34870.2937970.23314
Source: UN Population Division
Rest of World
China
India
USA
Pakistan
Indonesia
Brazil
Billions
Global Population Surge
GDP Data
Real GDP
Energy Intensity
2003103816.92
2010130846.23
2015152165.7
2020176345.23
2025202924.81
Average growth of 3.1% per year
WorldAsiaUSAChinaIndiaPakistanIndonesiaBrazilRest of WorldRussian Federation
20056.4535263.9175080.3000381.3222731.0869170.1611510.2253130.1827983.1750360.141553
20106.8302834.1489480.3149211.3648751.1738060.1817530.2383740.1928793.3636750.137501
20157.1972474.3705220.3296691.4023211.2463510.2044650.2504280.201973.5620430.133429
20207.5402374.5701310.344271.4294731.3122120.2273950.2610530.2097933.7560410.129018
20257.8514554.7422320.358031.44511.3692840.2497660.2701130.2163723.942790.124428
20508.9187245.2220580.4086951.3951821.5314380.34870.2937970.233144.7077720.101456
Peak in 2030 and slow due to 1 Child Policypass China around 2035
59%1 child policypass Chinadoubles
NG Production
19.07
20.42
20.77
21.89
21.83
Dry Production
Trillion Cubic Feet
Natural Gas Balance
NG Supply
19.074.130.44-0.27
20.422.572.5-0.06
20.772.984.33-0.21
21.892.695.54-0.27
21.832.556.37-0.17
Dry Production
Canada
LNG
Other
Tcf
Natural Gas Supply
NG Consumption
104.966.99
10.836.747.87
11.318.398.26
11.869.458.64
12.249.439
Other Consumption
Electric Power
Industrial
Tcf
Natural Gas Consumption
NG Data
Natural Gas
Dry ProductionCanadaLNGOtherConsumptionElectric PowerIndustrialOther Consumption
200319.074.130.44-0.2721.954.966.9910
201020.422.572.5-0.0625.446.747.8710.83
201520.772.984.33-0.2127.968.398.2611.31
202021.892.695.54-0.2729.959.458.6411.86
202521.832.556.37-0.1730.679.43912.24
U.S. Petroleum Consumption
NG Wellhead Price
3.4
2.49
1.79
1.81
2
2.08
2
2.08
2.33
2.68
2.92
2.28
1.95
1.95
2.05
2.15
2.04
1.9
2.08
1.81
1.69
1.85
1.93
1.94
1.84
1.75
1.68
1.86
2.16
2.12
2.18
2.49
2.61
2.5
2.67
2.2
2.12
2.3
2.36
2.55
2.9
3.73
3.7
3.67
4.26
4.61
4.62
6.35
8.06
5.84
5.15
5.21
4.56
3.88
3.39
3.23
2.55
2.4
4.38
2.38
2.35
2.14
2.52
3.02
Natural Gas Wellhead Prices
Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet
Natural Gas - Wellhead Price
NG WH Price Data
Natural Gas Wellhead Prices
Jan-973.4
Feb-972.49
Mar-971.79
Apr-971.81
May-972
Jun-972.08
Jul-972
Aug-972.08
Sep-972.33
Oct-972.68
Nov-972.92
Dec-972.28
Jan-981.95
Feb-981.95
Mar-982.05
Apr-982.15
May-982.04
Jun-981.9
Jul-982.08
Aug-981.81
Sep-981.69
Oct-981.85
Nov-981.93
Dec-981.94
Jan-991.84
Feb-991.75
Mar-991.68
Apr-991.86
May-992.16
Jun-992.12
Jul-992.18
Aug-992.49
Sep-992.61
Oct-992.5
Nov-992.67
Dec-992.2
Jan-002.12
Feb-002.3
Mar-002.36
Apr-002.55
May-002.9
Jun-003.73
Jul-003.7
Aug-003.67
Sep-004.26
Oct-004.61
Nov-004.62
Dec-006.35
Jan-018.06
Feb-015.84
Mar-015.15
Apr-015.21
May-014.56
Jun-013.88
Jul-013.39
Aug-013.23
Sep-012.55
Oct-012.4
Nov-014.38
Dec-012.38
Jan-022.35
Feb-022.14
Mar-022.52
Apr-023.02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Domestic Crude Prod
67153192
680136517
686044428
699751529
699758730
710966530
743382339
7721100980
76281287181
75941441203
78311577229
75611684218
75821660199
73941616198
70921489193
68221362191
66951264173
66051176464
634211361229
608410671401
594610341617
592910341609
584311101696
577811961714
587412831722
589612501825
555912541867
519111961962
493211912017
461211271874
450010821773
444711721798
423912181714
402412411582
373313701559
355115251484
351015621393
350816481296
338516921175
308117501050
31111741970
32361602963
30931669984
30661641974
45222004906
Lower 48 Onshore
Offshore
Alaska
Lower 48 Onshore
Offshore
Alaskan
MB/Day
Domestic Crude Oil Production
Domes. Crude Data
Crude OilTotal DomesticAlaskanLower 48 OnshoreLower-48OffshoreOil Rigs
19607,03526,7157,034319
19617,183176,8017,166365
19627,332286,8607,304444
19637,542296,9977,512515
19647,614306,9977,584587
19657,804307,1097,774665
19668,295397,4338,256823
19678,810807,7218,7301,009
19689,0961817,6288,9151,287
19699,2382037,5949,0351,441
19709,6372297,8319,4081,577
19719,4632187,5619,2451,684
19729,4411997,5829,2421,660
19739,2081987,3949,0101,616
19748,7741937,0928,5811,489
19758,3751916,8228,1841,362
19768,1321736,6957,9591,264
19778,2454646,6057,7811,176
19788,7071,2296,3427,4781,136
19798,5521,4016,0847,1511,067
19808,5971,6175,9466,9801,034
19818,5721,6095,9296,9631,034
19828,6491,6965,8436,9531,110
19838,6881,7145,7786,9741,196
19848,8791,7225,8747,1571,283
19858,9711,8255,8967,1461,250
19868,6801,8675,5596,8131,254
19878,3491,9625,1916,3871,196
19888,1402,0174,9326,1231,191554
19897,6131,8744,6125,7391,127453
19907,3551,7734,5005,5821,082532
19917,4171,7984,4475,6191,172482
19927,1711,7144,2395,4571,218373
19936,8471,5824,0245,2651,241373
19946,6621,5593,7335,1031,370335
19956,5601,4843,5515,0761,525323
19966,4651,3933,5105,0721,562306
19976,4521,2963,5085,1561,648376
19986,2521,1753,3855,0771,692264
19995,8811,0503,0814,8311,750128
20005,8229703,1114,8521,741197
20015,8019633,2364,8381,602228
20025,7469843,0934,7621,669
20035,6819743,0664,7071,641
20045,4289064,5224,522
Oil Production and Rigs
8140554
7613453
7355532
7417482
7171373
6847373
6662335
6560323
6465306
6452376
6252264
5881128
5822197
5801217
5746137
5681157
5428163
&A
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Total Domestic Crude Production
Oil Rigs
Thousand barrels per day
Oil-directed rotary rigs
Crude Production and Rigs
Sheet4
Total Domestic Crude ProductionOil Rigs
19739,208
19748,774
19758,375
19768,132
19778,245
19788,707
19798,552
19808,597
19818,572
19828,649
19838,688
19848,879
19858,971
19868,680
19878,349
19888,140554
19897,613453
19907,355532
19917,417482
19927,171373
19936,847373
19946,662335
19956,560323
19966,465306
19976,452376
19986,252264
19995,881128
20005,822197
20015,801217
20025,746137
20035,681157
20045,428163
Chart7
8597
8572
8649
8688
8879
8971
8680
8349
8140
7613
7355
7417
7171
6847
6662
6560
6465
6452
6252
5881
5822
5801
U.S. Production
Year
Thousand Barrels per Day
U.S.Crude Production
Chart8
2912
3970
3105
2229
2429
1980
964
936
936
869
1010
860
722
754
755
723
779
943
827
625
Rotary Rigs
Sheet2
U.S. ProductionLower-48Rotary Rigs
19739,2083,2441,194
19748,7743,4771,472
19758,3754,1051,660
19768,1325,2871,658
19778,2456,6152,001
19788,7076,3562,259
19798,5526,5192,177
19808,5975,2632,912
19818,5724,3963,970
19828,6493,4883,105
19838,6883,3292,229
19848,8793,4262,429
19858,9713,2011,980
19868,6804,178964
19878,3494,674936
19888,1405,107936
19897,6135,843869
19907,3555,8941,010
19917,4175,782860
19927,1716,083722
19936,8475,265754
19946,6625,103755
19956,5605,076723
19966,4655,092779
19976,4525,156943
19986,2525,077827
19995,8814,875625
20005,8224,840
20015,801
1998
Operators of Record
10059
12381
13014
12951
12815
11370
8335
7048
6095
5231
5361
5138
4337
4172
3612
3404
3398
3453
2918
2087
Drilling Operators of Record
Drilling Operators
Operators of Record
Sheet3
Drilling Operators of Record
19745,981
19757,201
19768,554
18776,782
19787,222
19797,859
198010,059
198112,381
198213,014
198312,951
198412,815
198511,370
19868,335
19877,048
19886,095
19895,231
19905,361
19915,138
19924,337
19934,172
19943,612
19953,404
19963,398
19973,453
19982,918
19992,087
Wells Drilled Percentage
85
15
INDEPENDENTS
Percent of Wells Drilled
Percent of Total Domestic Wells Drilled
Petrol Prod Percent
40
60
INDEPENDENTS
Percentage of Domestic Petroleum Production
Percentage of Domestic Petroleum Production
Gas Prod Percent
65
35
INDEPENDENTS
Percentage of Natural Gas Production
Percentage of Natural Gas Production
Ind Producer Info Sheet
Wells DrilledPetroleum ProductionNatural Gas Production
Independents854065
Others156035
Saudi imports
SaudiIraq
198661881
198764282
1988911343
19891116441
19901195514
199117030
199215970
199312820
199412970
199512600
199612481
1997129389
19981404336
19991387725
20001409516
U.S. Production vs. Consumption
198064.76175.955
198164.42273.99
198263.96370.848
198361.27970.524
198465.96274.144
198564.87173.981
198664.34974.297
198764.95276.894
198866.10580.219
198966.16181.358
199067.87381.289
199167.50981.115
199266.89982.422
199365.19984.222
199467.50285.988
199567.81387.561
199669.02190.417
199769.09790.977
199869.1391.231
199968.30292.78
Consumption
Production
Ind Producer Info Sheet
0
0
% of total wells
Employees Chart
0
0
% of total oil production
Employee Data
0
0
% of total natural gas production
Employment-Rig Count
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
&A
Page &P
Saudi
Iraq
Mbbl/d
Mbbl/d
Saudi vs. Iraqi Imports
NG Production v. Rigs
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Consumption
Production
Quad Btu
U.S. Supply and Demand
Rig Count
326800
327900
327300
329600
333800
338500
344500
345700
346200
349000
347900
350200
347900
347400
344800
341100
340500
344500
344100
341900
336400
332400
326200
321700
308700
300600
299500
294100
290000
293300
295500
296900
295900
298200
297200
298700
295600
297100
297100
302000
307400
314700
316900
318000
320700
325100
321700
323100
323600
324700
328500
331900
337700
345200
346300
348700
346500
343900
340700
338800
338800
334900
331000
333900
332300
334400
332700
337900
334200
Employees in Oil and Gas Extraction (in thousands)
Employees in Oil and Gas Extraction
Domestic Energy Consump 2015
Employees in Oil and Gas Extraction (in thousands)
Jan-97326.8326800145400
Feb-97327.9327900145700
Mar-97327.3327300143500
Apr-97329.6329600142900
May-97333.8333800142700
Jun-97338.5338500144700
Jul-97344.5344500145400
Aug-97345.7345700145100
Sep-97346.2346200143200
Oct-97349349000143500
Nov-97347.9347900143400
Dec-97350.2350200143800
Jan-98347.9347900141400
Feb-98347.4347400141200
Mar-98344.8344800140300
Apr-98341.1341100140000
May-98340.5340500139000
Jun-98344.5344500142400
Jul-98344.1344100142600
Aug-98341.9341900142300
Sep-98336.4336400140800
Oct-98332.4332400140400
Nov-98326.2326200139100
Dec-98321.7321700140000
Jan-99308.7308700137900
Feb-99300.6300600136400
Mar-99299.5299500135400
Apr-99294.1294100132400
May-99290290000129500
Jun-99293.3293300129500
Jul-99295.5295500131400
Aug-99296.9296900131200
Sep-99295.9295900128800
Oct-99298.2298200128300
Nov-99297.2297200127200
Dec-99298.7298700126800
Jan-00295.6295600125400
Feb-00297.1297100126700
Mar-00297.1297100124100
Apr-00302302000124300
May-00307.4307400124800
Jun-00314.7314700127200
Jul-00316.9316900125700
Aug-00318318000125200
Sep-00320.7320700124400
Oct-00325.1325100124600
Nov-00321.7321700123100
Dec-00323.1323100122700
Jan-01323.6323600123000
Feb-01324.7324700121900
Mar-01328.5328500122200
Apr-01331.9331900122400
May-01337.7337700123200
Jun-01345.2345200125000
Jul-01346.3346300125600
Aug-01348.7348700125800
Sep-01346.5346500125200
Oct-01343.9343900122800
Nov-01340.7340700123200
Dec-01338.8338800124200
Jan-02338.8338800123900
Feb-02334.9334900124300
Mar-02331331000122300
Apr-02333.9333900121200
May-02332.3332,300122200
Jun-02334.4334,400123900
Jul-02332.7332,700123000
Aug-02337.9337,900123400
Sep-02334.2334,200121700
121200
121600
121600
122300
121700
121900
123200
124800
127600
126700
126400
125700
126500
EIA AEO 2000 Consump
478822
492849
518897
526901
541924
577976
584969
581993
6141009
602996
625983
6481013
609993
589974
601932
591886
580855
585854
549816
565792
559774
519734
499688
491647
461587
425542
412526
371496
380516
434558
478588
527639
565696
601741
635782
636798
632775
616763
600773
609805
645844
&A
Page &P
Employment
Rig Count
AEO 2000 Renewables
1618478
1466492
1628518
1551526
1611541
1525577
1585584
1582581
1545614
1597602
1547625
1575648
1659609
1477589
1648601
1592591
1651580
1582585
1611549
1623565
1473559
1589519
1540499
1579491
1625461
1465425
1622412
1549371
1579380
1541434
1586478
1582527
1532565
1587601
1560635
1604636
1614632
1489616
1630600
1540609
1600645
1560677
1611733
1620780
1563811
1638843
1553832
1568854
1672879
1509898
1685913
1624957
1681997
16071050
16571058
16571032
1610972
1676913
1594825
1644754
1623725
1455679
1624617
1573612
1631690
1569704
1638716
1607721
1511735
1558709
1563683
1612714
&A
Page &P
Discorrelation between production and rig count
Dry NG Production
Natural Gas Rigs
Dry NG Production (Bcf)
Number of Active NG Rigs
Decline Curves and Maturing Prospects: US NG Production (Bcf) Vs. US NG Rig Count
Rigs
1997U.S.TotalNatural Gas RigsPetroleumDry NG ProductionEmployment
478JanJan-978224783421618145400
492FebFeb-978494923561466145700
518MarMar-978975183771628143500
526AprApr-979015263731551142900
541MayMay-979245413791611142700
577JunJun-979765773961525144700
584JulJul-979695843821585145400
581AugAug-979935814091582145100
614SepSep-9710096143921545143200
602OctOct-979966023901597143500
625NovNov-979836253541547143400
648DecDec-9710136483611575143800
565.5JanJan-989936093801659141400
FebFeb-989745893801477141200
MarMar-989326013271648140300
AprApr-988865912911592140000
MayMay-988555802721651139000
JunJun-988545852671582142400
JulJul-988165492641611142600
AugAug-987925652261623142300
SepSep-987745592151473140800
OctOct-987345192141589140400
NovNov-986884991901540139100
DecDec-986474911551579140000
JanJan-995874611251625137900
FebFeb-995424251171465136400
MarMar-995264121141622135400
AprApr-994963711251549132400
MayMay-995163801361579129500
JunJun-995584341241541129500
JulJul-995884781081586131400
AugAug-996395271111582131200
SepSep-996965651301532128800
OctOct-997416011371587128300
NovNov-997826351451560127200
DecDec-997986361611604126800
JanJan-007756321431614125400
FebFeb-007636161471489126700
MarMar-007736001731630124100
AprApr-008056091961540124300
MayMay-008446451991600124800
JunJun-008796772011560127200
JulJul-009427332081611125700
AugAug-009877802071620125200
SepSep-0010118112001563124400
OctOct-0010558432121638124600
NovNov-0010678322341553123100
879DecDec-0010978542421568122700
898JanJan-0111188792391672123000
913FebFeb-0111368982371509121900
957MarMar-0111649132481685122200
997AprApr-0112069572471624122400
1050MayMay-0112349972351681123200
1058JunJun-01127110502191607125000
1032JulJul-01127810582191657125600
972AugAug-01125110322191657125800
913SepSep-0111939722201610125200
825OctOct-0111119131981676122800
754NovNov-0110008251741594123200
937.3333333333DecDec-019017541471644124200
725JanJan-028677251411623123900
679FebFeb-028256791441455124300239141
617MarMar-027636171441624122300237144
612AprApr-027506121361573121000248144
690MayMay-028266901341631121900247136
704JunJun-028437041381569123400235134
716JulJul-028517161331638122300219138
721AugAug-028487211251607122500219133
735SepSep-028607351221511120700219125
709OctOct-028527091401558120000220122
683NovNov-028346831461563120200198140
714DecDec-028567141371612120000174146
692.0833333333JanJan-038547181321638120600147137
718FebFeb-03907750153148311980026021640
750MarMar-039417671711660119800
767AprApr-039837951851574121000
795MayMay-0310358641681620122700
864JunJun-0310679101521558125400
910JulJul-0310819241531606124700
924AugAug-0310909321531604124500
932SepSep-0310939361541568123900
936OctOct-0311029411581605124600
941NovNov-0311119521581544123800
952DecDec-0311149591531609124100
959JanJan-0411019551431627126800
870.6666666667FebFeb-0411199611531512128500
MarMar-0411359681641617128400
AprApr-0411519961541545
MayMay-04116410071561605
JunJun-0411761011164
JulJul-0412131041170
AugAug-04
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Employment- Rig Count
0.3998799931
0.2629864564
0.2214983713
0.0467169553
0.0660894908
0.0011143494
0.0016286645
Energy Sources
Domestic Energy Consumption 2015
Renewable Energy (Includes Hydropower)7%
1998-99 OPEC Production
1998-
1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202020
Total Energy Consumption
Distillate Fuel7.277.327.467.497.567.667.767.867.958.018.078.128.138.198.228.278.348.428.58.538.588.638.688.730.80%
Kerosene0.140.160.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.140.14-0.70%
Jet Fuel 8/3.313.363.463.563.653.763.894.044.164.324.444.584.74.854.965.15.235.45.555.695.825.976.116.242.90%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas2.712.592.742.742.782.82.842.862.882.892.932.972.993.033.043.073.13.133.163.183.23.223.243.271.10%
Motor Gasoline 2/15.3115.8216.0516.4216.7717.0817.3217.6517.9518.2618.5718.8419.1219.3919.6219.8320.0720.3320.5920.7920.9921.2121.4221.651.40%
Petrochemical Feedstocks1.41.391.291.31.331.351.41.441.471.511.531.551.561.581.591.611.631.651.661.671.691.71.721.731.00%
Residual Fuel1.962.172.211.841.881.791.751.751.751.811.791.791.771.761.711.731.751.771.811.821.831.851.881.91-0.60%
Other Petroleum 12/4.344.394.584.744.84.814.814.864.914.944.9955.015.045.075.15.135.185.245.255.295.295.335.380.90%
Petroleum36.4337.2137.9438.2338.939.3939.9140.5941.2141.8742.4642.9943.4343.9844.3544.8545.3946.0346.6539.99%47.0847.5448.0148.5149.051.30%
Natural Gas22.621.9922.0522.9822.823.0423.5623.9224.5725.2125.9426.5426.9327.6928.2228.7329.2829.9230.6826.30%31.0631.4931.8632.1432.381.80%
Metallurgical Coal0.810.760.750.730.720.710.70.690.680.670.660.650.640.630.620.610.60.590.580.570.560.550.540.53-1.60%
Steam Coal20.5120.6821.0621.6422.222.6523.1823.6623.862424.124.224.3124.2824.3724.4824.6424.7825.0225.1125.325.4325.6125.81.00%
Net Coal Coke Imports0.020.070.080.10.110.120.140.160.170.170.180.190.20.210.210.220.230.230.240.250.250.260.270.276.60%
Coal21.3421.521.8922.4723.0323.4924.0324.5124.7224.8524.9525.0425.1525.1225.225.3125.4725.625.8422.15%25.9226.1126.2326.4126.61.00%
Nuclear Power6.717.197.467.357.377.387.377.277.27.016.886.866.876.76.536.466.265.975.454.67%5.234.894.674.584.56-2.10%
Renewable Energy (Includes Hydropower)76.676.566.686.826.997.026.997.087.167.27.297.387.417.487.567.577.657.716.61%7.737.867.97.947.990.80%
Methanol00.010.010.020.030.040.050.060.060.070.080.090.090.10.110.110.120.130.130.11%0.140.140.150.150.1514.30%
Liquid Hydrogen000000000000000000000000N/A
Electricity Imports0.330.310.480.420.410.520.510.470.440.470.40.350.320.260.270.220.210.190.190.16%0.210.210.230.230.21-1.80%
Total94.4194.8896.3998.1599.37100.86102.44103.79105.28106.64107.9109.17110.18111.26112.16113.23114.29115.48116.66117.38118.24119.05119.96120.951.10%
Energy Use & Related Statistics
Delivered Energy Use70.5570.3271.6172.7973.7174.7875.9677.2478.4679.6180.6881.7182.5683.5984.3885.3286.2787.3588.3889.1689.9390.7191.5592.441.30%
Total Energy Use94.4194.8896.3998.1599.37100.86102.44103.79105.28106.64107.9109.17110.18111.26112.16113.23114.29115.48116.66117.38118.24119.05119.96120.951.10%
Population (millions)268.2270.58272.91275.21277.5279.77282.04284.3286.57288.87291.19293.54295.92298.34300.79303.26305.75308.26310.78313.31315.84318.37320.89323.40.80%
US GDP (billion 1992 dollars)727075527838799181918377859688249056925194499651984010054102181041610648109061114711331115331174111959121792.20%
Total Carbon Emis.(mill. m. tons)1478.91485.41519.81552.41575.61599.51628.51657.51683.41707.81730.61750.91767.11786.61802.61821.31842.31865.81893.41908.81927.81944.71961.61979.21.30%
Oil Supply-Demand
1998-
1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202020
Electricity Generators (excludes cogenerators)
Net Summer Capability
Conventional Hydropower77.4377.7177.7277.7277.7977.9478.0678.1378.2178.3578.3578.3578.3578.3378.3378.3378.3378.3378.3378.3378.3378.3378.3378.330.00%
Geothermal 2/2.872.892.92.963.113.052.972.882.892.792.792.93.052.982.912.952.92.983.113.183.313.463.553.751.20%
Municipal Solid Waste 3/2.492.492.522.583.273.43.483.593.73.863.994.194.334.474.654.834.874.9655.085.115.135.155.173.40%
Wood and Other Biomass 4/1.761.761.761.781.871.941.961.992.012.052.112.192.292.412.532.682.682.692.712.772.82.832.92.932.30%
Solar Thermal0.330.330.330.330.330.330.340.350.350.360.370.380.390.40.40.410.420.430.440.440.450.460.470.481.70%
Solar Photovoltaic0.010.010.010.010.020.020.040.050.070.090.110.130.160.190.220.250.280.310.350.380.420.450.490.5218.40%
Wind1.781.992.642.742.93.273.433.713.894.244.474.874.975.075.25.295.295.35.45.425.425.425.495.494.70%
Total86.6887.1987.988.1389.2989.9690.2790.791.1391.7492.293.0293.5493.8494.2594.7394.769595.3395.6195.8496.0896.3796.670.50%
Generation (billion kilowatthours)
Conventional Hydropower350.45316.79300.07299.74299.79300.04300.36300.49300.62301.01300.96300.84300.72300.5300.33300.22300.13300.01299.977.64%299.84299.67299.56299.48299.35-0.30%
Geothermal 2/14.5814.2914.0714.5115.6515.7615.6115.4615.5515.2615.2616.1617.3517.3517.3617.6117.8118.6119.625.08%20.1621.1822.3723.124.72.50%
Municipal Solid Waste 3/17.7217.7817.3517.7322.523.3723.9324.7125.4826.5227.4228.7429.6530.6331.833.0433.6534.2934.558.94%35.0135.2935.4535.5935.713.20%
Wood and Other Biomass 4/6.886.869.189.7211.9212.1412.1613.9215.1816.5717.8617.218.5420.3519.9920.6619.7119.0818.234.72%18.9719.4218.4218.9918.84.70%
Dedicated Plants6.886.866.726.857.437.888.048.218.388.649.049.5710.241111.8312.8212.8212.8813.033.37%13.3913.6213.8214.3514.553.50%
Cofiring002.462.874.494.264.125.726.87.938.827.638.39.348.167.846.896.215.21.35%5.585.84.64.634.25N/A
Solar Thermal0.890.890.890.890.890.90.910.950.950.971.021.041.081.091.111.131.161.21.220.32%1.251.271.31.321.351.90%
Solar Photovoltaic000.030.030.050.060.090.130.180.220.270.320.40.460.530.610.680.770.860.22%0.951.041.131.221.331.80%
Wind3.393.395.385.625.976.827.177.778.188.969.4910.3910.6610.9511.2911.5311.6211.6411.873.07%11.9311.9611.9612.0912.096.00%
Total393.91360346.97348.24356.78359.09360.23363.43366.13369.52372.28374.69378.4381.33382.42384.8384.76385.6386.26388.11389.84390.19391.78393.320.40%
Cogenerators 5/
Net Summer Capability
Municipal Solid Waste0.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.520.00%
Biomass66.046.046.16.266.46.566.716.856.967.077.177.267.377.447.547.657.87.948.048.138.238.348.461.50%
Total6.526.566.566.636.786.927.087.237.377.487.597.77.787.897.968.068.188.328.468.568.668.758.868.981.40%
Generation (billion kilowatthours)
Municipal Solid Waste2.9933.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.133.130.20%
Biomass37.1337.3436.9537.438.3639.2340.1941.0741.9642.6343.2843.9244.4245.0645.4646.0146.6847.4848.2848.849.2949.7850.3751.021.40%
Total40.1340.3440.0940.5341.542.3643.3344.245.0945.7646.4247.0547.5548.1948.649.1449.8150.6151.4151.9352.4252.9253.554.151.30%
Other Generators 6/
Net Summer Capability
Conventional Hydropower 7/1.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.10.00%
Geothermal000000000000000000000000N/A
Solar Photovolvaic0.010.010.010.010.020.030.040.070.090.130.170.220.280.350.350.350.350.350.420.490.550.620.680.7423.50%
Total1.11.11.11.11.111.121.141.161.191.221.271.321.381.441.441.441.441.441.521.581.651.711.781.842.40%
Generation (billion kilowatthours)
Conventional Hydropower 7/7.257.254.884.874.874.874.864.864.864.864.864.864.854.854.854.854.854.844.844.844.844.844.834.83-1.80%
Geothermal000.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.0713.90%
Solar Photovolvaic0.010.010.010.010.030.040.070.120.160.220.280.350.420.460.460.460.460.460.470.470.480.490.490.521.80%
Total7.267.264.954.954.964.9855.055.095.155.215.275.345.385.385.385.375.375.375.385.385.395.395.4-1.30%
Oil Fund.
Rotary Rig Count
DateOilGasMisc.TotalOffshoreInlandOnshoreCanada
5-Jan-962974041071110915602
12-Jan-96290406870411211592
19-Jan-96300408871610912607
26-Jan-96291404870311114592
2-Feb-96295389969310318590
9-Feb-96281407769510016595
16-Feb-96285417570710015607
23-Feb-96269431570510015605
1-Mar-9626543667079814609
8-Mar-9629042187199715622
15-Mar-9628440366938912604
22-Mar-9629742267259412631
29-Mar-9629642577289912629
5-Apr-96291426872510715618
12-Apr-96283445773511410621
19-Apr-962854511174711712630
26-Apr-962844601375711419643
3-May-962854491574911419635
10-May-96290474877212317649
17-May-96285463975711819639
24-May-96291478677511416661
31-May-96288472576510923656
7-Jun-96301475578111522666
14-Jun-96304464577310720666
21-Jun-96295465576511120654
28-Jun-96293480477711219665
5-Jul-96292486478210719675
12-Jul-96291493478810623682
19-Jul-96296490479010822682
26-Jul-962804821277410623668
2-Aug-962974832180110721694
9-Aug-963054832180910524704
16-Aug-962984842380511018695
23-Aug-962974993282810622722
30-Aug-962884933181211120701
6-Sep-96293492579010521685
13-Sep-96300503580810522703
20-Sep-96309511582511120714
27-Sep-96302515582211320709
4-Oct-96311503581911415705
11-Oct-963135051082710224725
18-Oct-963195141284510623739
25-Oct-963365031485310426749
1-Nov-96346491283910425735
8-Nov-96349486383810527733
15-Nov-96366481284910825741
22-Nov-96374475285110727744
27-Nov-96382477286110829753
6-Dec-96366488285611123745
13-Dec-96364475284111422727
20-Dec-96360496285811922739
27-Dec-96353496285111624735
3-Jan-97363480284511724728
10-Jan-97346477282511125714
17-Jan-97335482181811023708
24-Jan-97333481181510723708
31-Jan-97333472280710720700
7-Feb-97350481283311121722
14-Feb-97362496286010621754
21-Feb-97354508186310626757
28-Feb-97357481284010427736
7-Mar-9736351728821292575
14-Mar-97366517288512625759
21-Mar-97379525190512226783
28-Mar-97400514191512629789
4-Apr-97384533191812728791
11-Apr-97371541191312627787
18-Apr-97372511288512528760
25-Apr-97365520488912627764
2-May-97369508488112326758
9-May-97374535491311925794
16-May-97368545491712026797
23-May-97387557494812025828
30-May-97395562496111926842
6-Jun-97404580498812026868
13-Jun-97393585498212624856
20-Jun-97393570396611725849
27-Jun-97392572296612224844
4-Jul-97380583296512225843
11-Jul-97368593396412424840
18-Jul-97381578396212926833
25-Jul-97398583398412528859
1-Aug-97410582399512425871
8-Aug-97429555398712425863
15-Aug-97417580299912526874
22-Aug-9740659631,00512625879
29-Aug-97383594398012626854
5-Sep-9740462531,03212526907
12-Sep-9738662331,01212925883
19-Sep-97387603399312721866
26-Sep-97392603399812920869
3-Oct-9738461341,00112816873
10-Oct-97392578497412116853
17-Oct-97404579498711420873
24-Oct-9739760241,00312024883
31-Oct-9737364041,01712123896
7-Nov-97343638498512521860
14-Nov-97359631499412622868
21-Nov-97342601494712622821
28-Nov-9737163041,00512922876
5-Dec-9736564541,01412825886
12-Dec-9736164741,01212422888
19-Dec-9736165441,01913124888
26-Dec-9735764641,00713124876
2-Jan-9836663341,00312923874
9-Jan-98361625499013922851
16-Jan-98387598498913223857
23-Jan-98396595599613225864
30-Jan-98389593598713425853
6-Feb-98385584597413422840
13-Feb-98385582597213922833
20-Feb-98372612598914227847
27-Feb-98376579596013925821
6-Mar-98360592595713925818
13-Mar-98321617494214022802
20-Mar-98321613393713625801
27-Mar-98304583389012924761
3-Apr-98295577387513523740
10-Apr-98298588388913626753
17-Apr-98294601389814221756
24-Apr-98278599388013621744
1-May-98272601387613320743
8-May-98271571384513128714
15-May-98281592387613327743
22-May-98269583385513427721
29-May-98269551282213326689
5-Jun-98270590282213329729
12-Jun-98267599286812929739
19-Jun-98271589386312434739
26-Jun-98261560282312223701
3-Jul-98258552281212524687
10-Jul-98266551281911923700
17-Jul-98260548281011824692
24-Jul-98269544381612421692
31-Jul-98269550382212020702
7-Aug-98235571380912220687
14-Aug-98229568279912023679
21-Aug-98218551277111321658
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