Post on 14-Jul-2015
transcript
January 2015
THE CHANGING MIX OF WHAT SELLS IN PRINT: HOW EBOOKS HAVE
CHANGED THE PRINT BOOK MARKETPLACE
JONATHAN NOWELL
NIELSEN BOOK PRESIDENT
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AGENDA
• Broad genre shifts • Format impacts • Ebooks by genre • Fiction • Non-Fiction • Juvenile • The bookstore of the future
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US GENRE BREAKDOWN Juvenile has grown from 23% to 37% of total market
Nielsen BookScan
45%
32%
23%
2004
Total AdultNon-Fiction
Total AdultFiction
Total Juvenile
41%
31%
28%
2009
Total AdultNon-Fiction
Total AdultFiction
Total Juvenile
40%
23%
37%
2014
Total AdultNon-Fiction
Total AdultFiction
Total Juvenile
650 million 635 million
770 million
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UK GENRE BREAKDOWN Children’s has grown from 24% to 35% of total market
Nielsen BookScan
44%
32%
24%
2004
Adult Non-Fiction
Adult Fiction
Children's
38%
34%
28%
2010
Adult Non-Fiction
Adult Fiction
Children's
37%
28%
35%
2014
Adult Non-Fiction
Adult Fiction
Children's
204 million 181 million
229 million
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Adult Fiction
0
50
100
150
200
250
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Mill
ion
s
Mass Market Pbk
Trade Paperback
Hardback
PRINT BOOKS BY FORMAT In Adult Fiction, hardback sales down less than paperback since 2009
Adult Non-Fiction
Nielsen BookScan
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Mill
ion
s
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Quarterly ebook sales by genre
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
Mill
ion
s
Religious Fiction
Bibles
Juvenile Non-Fiction
Other
Religion Non-Fiction
Juvenile Fiction
Non-Fiction
Fiction
US EBOOKS BY BROAD SECTOR In latest quarter, adult fiction accounts for 65% of ebook sales
PubTrack Digital US
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Adult Fiction by category, volume sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ion
s
Western
Action Adventure
Occult/Psychological/Horror
Science Fiction
Religion
Fantasy
Classics
Graphic Novels
Mystery/Detective
Suspense/Thrillers
Romance
General Fiction
LONG TERM CHANGE IN US FICTION Comparing Fiction in print in the pre- and post-ebook world
Nielsen BookScan
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FICTION TRENDS IN TOP CATEGORIES Fantasy has seen largest decline since 2009
Nielsen BookScan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ion
s
General Fiction
Romance
Suspense/Thrillers
Mystery/Detective
Graphic Novels
Fantasy
-46%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-27% -58%
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24%
10%
10%
9% 6% 6%
6%
5%
4%
3%
1% 1%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2014
Romance
Mystery & Detective
Thrillers
Suspense
Literary
Fantasy
General
Contemporary Women
FICTION EBOOKS BY CATEGORY Romance started off as highest in the format and has just gotten bigger over the years
19%
13%
15% 6% 6%
8%
8%
3%
4%
3% 1%
1% 0%
4% 0%
2%
1% 1%
0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2010
Share of fiction ebook sales, volume
PubTrack Digital US
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US volume sales, adult fiction
THREE MAINSTAY FICTION AUTHORS Have ebooks affected their print sales?
Nielsen BookScan/PubTrack Digital US
Aggregated unit data for three mainstay – (consistent annual output over the long term).
“Pre-ebook” print 3 years 2008 – 2010
“Post-ebook” print 3 years 2012 – 2014
“ebook” 3 years 2012 – 2014
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Adult Non-Fiction by category, volume sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ion
s
House & Home/Gardening
Computers
Humor
Art/Architecture/Design/Photography
Travel
Performing Arts
Crafts/Hobbies/Antiques/Games
Self Help
History/Law/Political Science
Cooking/Entertaining
Business/Economics
Health/Fitness/Medicine/Sports
Biography/Autobiography/Memoir
General Non-Fiction
Reference
Religion/Bibles
DECLINE IN US NON-FICTION LED BY REFERENCE Market decline pre-dates ebook transition
Nielsen BookScan
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SINCE 2007…
Nielsen BookScan
Travel 50%
Reference
37%
Religion/Bibles
43%
Cooking/Entertaining 11%
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All Juvenile by category, volume sales
IN SPITE OF POST-2009 DIP, JUVENILE SALES UP! 2014 had highest reported sales since records began
Nielsen BookScan
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ion
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Social Situations/Family/Health (NF)
Concepts (NF)
Holidays/Festivals/Religion (NF)
Biographies/Autobiographies
Animals (NF)
Education/Reference/Language
Holidays/Festivals/Religion
Concepts
Animals
Classics
History/Sports/People/Places (NF)
Games/Activities/Hobbies
History/Sports/People/Places
Social Situations/Family/Health
Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic
General
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JUVENILE FICTION
Nielsen BookScan
38%
17% 14% 8%
8%
5% 4% 6%
2004 General
ScienceFiction/Fantasy/Magic
SocialSituations/Family/Health
History/Sports/People/Places
Classics
Animals
Concepts
Holidays/Festivals/Religion
30%
29%
16%
7%
7%
4% 3%
4% 2009 General
ScienceFiction/Fantasy/Magic
SocialSituations/Family/Health
History/Sports/People/Places
Classics
Animals
Concepts
Holidays/Festivals/Religion
30%
26% 16% 8%
5%
5%
5% 5% 2014
General
ScienceFiction/Fantasy/Magic
SocialSituations/Family/Health
History/Sports/People/Places
Classics
Animals
Concepts
Holidays/Festivals/Religion
109 million
177 million
163 million
2014 sales were up 62% on 2004, 8% on
2009 and 12% on 2013.
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HIGHEST POST-EBOOK PRINT GROWTH CATEGORIES …
Nielsen BookScan
2004 2009 2014
Religion/Bibles
Juvenile Non-Fiction
9% 53%
8%
44% 28%
Juvenile Fiction 49%
Performing Arts 5% 12%
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POST EBOOK DECLINE DOMINATED BY FICTION
Nielsen BookScan
2004 2009 2014
Fantasy
General Fiction
Mystery/Detective
Travel
43% 58%
34% 46%
18% 40%
10% 37%
Craft/Hobbies/Games 16% 33%
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BOOK STORE OF THE FUTURE … DESIGNED TO INSPIRE
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… AND TO HAVE FUN
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… DURING THE DAY
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…OR AT NIGHT