The Differential Trajectories of High School

Dropouts and Graduates

By:

Gregory P. Hickman, Ph.D.Mitchell Bartholomew

Jennifer MathwigRandy Heinrich, Ph.D.

The Rodel Community ScholarsArizona State University at the West

Campus

Research Questions

• Are there differences in the developmental trajectories of high school graduates compared to high school dropouts?

• If so, where do these differences occur developmentally in time and across which variables?

• If differences do exist developmentally in time and across variables which variables exhibit the greatest differences between high school graduates and dropouts?

• Of the variables that exhibit the greatest differences between high school graduates and dropouts which of these variables accounts for the most variance for dropping out of high school?

• Do high school graduates and dropouts academically perform in the classroom with equal rigor parallel to standardized testing?

Method of Study

• Obtained familial, disciplinary, and educational data• All data were from student K-12 files• Partnered with County Juvenile Probation Office for official data• Sampled 4 cohorts (2002-2005)• Randomly selected 60 graduates and 60 dropouts from 4 cohorts• n=119 (one student was disqualified from study – no data)• n represents approximately 25% of total population of 4 cohorts• Examined the longitudinal developmental trajectory of both graduates and dropouts across time and all variables of study.• Independent t-tests examined mean differences between groups• Regression Analysis examined the predictive nature of variables between high school dropouts and graduates

Family & Demographics

.57

.38.51 .47

.35.22

.88

.29

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

MaritalStatus

Gender Born InArizona

Ethnicity

DropoutsGraduates

0=Married, Female, Born in AZ, and Caucasian1=Divorced, Male, Not born in AZ, and all other ethnic backgrounds

Family & Demographics

1.98

1.25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Siblings Older Siblings

DropoutsGraduates

2.58

1.58

Vocational Courses

.49

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Did They Take VocationalCourses?

DropoutsGraduates

.61

0=Yes, 1=No

Non-Core Courses 1st & 2nd Semester 9th Grade

2.83.11

1.95

2.91

4.36

6.02

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1st Sem 2nd Sem Total

DropoutsGraduates

Retained K-8?

.62

.94

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Were they retained?

DropoutsGraduates

0=Yes, 1=No

Absenteeism K-8

12.13 12.05 11.79

14.20

10.8612.65

14.34

17.08

19.84

10.108.96 8.20 8.87

10.11 10.38 9.66 9.547.45

0

5

10

15

20

25

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dropouts Graduates

Total Absence Days K-8

124.28

83.17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

TotalDays

DropoutsGraduates

Qualitative Reading Grades K-2

.60

.06.25

.13.20

.030

0.5

1

1.5

2

K 1 2

DropoutsGraduates

0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative Reading Grades 1-8

2.662.50 2.57

2.77

2.402.23

1.621.95

3.61 3.62

3.22 3.112.87

3.182.84 2.85

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dropouts Graduates

Qualitative Spelling Grades K-2

.170

.22.04 0 .06

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

K 1 2

DropoutsGraduates

0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative Spelling Grades 1-5

2.422.10

2.96 2.972.78

3.313.58

3.31 3.343.19

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1 2 3 4 5

Dropouts Graduates

Qualitative English Grades K-2

.33

0.20

.09

.64

.030

0.5

1

1.5

2

K 1 2

DropoutsGraduates

0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative English Grades 1-8

2.67

1.56

2.68 2.812.58

2.40

1.47 1.48

3.463.75

3.15 3.19 3.13 3.172.81 2.82

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dropouts Graduates

Qualitative Writing Grades K-2

.29

0 .07 .03 0 00

0.5

1

1.5

2

K 1 2

DropoutsGraduates

0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative Writing Grades 1-5

2.85

2.23 2.152.43

2.10

3.39

2.56 2.56

3.783.46

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1 2 3 4 5

Dropouts Graduates

Qualitative Math Grades K-2

.43

.06 .08 .04 .080

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

K 1 2

DropoutsGraduates

0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

Quantitative Math Grades 1-8

2.67

1.66

2.912.74

2.472.22

1.35 1.25

3.493.67

3.103.27

2.98 3.07

2.652.33

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dropouts Graduates

Qualitative Social Studies Grades K-2

Graduates & Dropouts all performed at Satisfactory from Kindergarten through 2nd Grade

Quantitative Social Studies Grades 2-8

2.00

2.622.80

2.34 2.23

1.281.05

3.00

3.40 3.313.05

3.31

2.882.60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dropouts Graduates

Qualitative Science Grades K-2

Graduates & Dropouts all performed at Satisfactory from Kindergarten

through 2nd Grade

Quantitative Science Grades 2-8

2.502.71 2.60

2.402.14 2.00

1.63

4.00

3.28 3.31

2.933.30

2.872.70

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dropouts Graduates

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Reading

Scores

46.13 43.2735.53

44.4439.33

54.72 54.37 54.69 57.2053.07

0

20

40

60

80

100

5 6 7 8 9

Dropouts Graduates

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Math Scores

32.2838.22 34.71 37.91

42.75

41.20

53.45 53.50 55.6860.06

0

20

40

60

80

100

5 6 7 8 9

Dropouts Graduates

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Language Scores

40.1932.54 30.92 34.10 34.79

44.66 46.3351.88 54.12

47.47

0

20

40

60

80

100

5 6 7 8 9

Dropouts Graduates

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Vocabulary Scores

45.70 44.34

33.45

42.9738.66

56.10 52.87 53.02 50.93 49.90

0

20

40

60

80

100

5 6 7 8 9

Dropouts Graduates

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Read Comp/Critical

Analysis Scores

44.05 43.0436.91

46.5839.02

51.91 54.66 56.1461.68

55.47

0

20

40

60

80

100

5 6 7 8 9

Dropouts Graduates

Stanford Grades 5-8 NCE Problem Solving

Strategies

35.0043.24

36.79 37.71

45.34

56.05 53.7757.76

0

20

40

60

80

100

5 6 7 8

Dropouts Graduates

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Mechanics/Usage of

Language

.60

1

.53

.93

.57

1.2

.74

1.38

.67

1.18

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

5 6 7 8 9

DropoutsGraduates

0=Below Average, 1=Average, 2=Above Average

Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Interpretation of

Reading/Language

.91

1.31

.93

1.2

.62

1.2

.94

1.33

.77

1.27

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

5 6 7 8 9

DropoutsGraduates

0=Below Average, 1=Average, 2=Above Average

Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Reading – Grades 1-

6

43.28

20.8525.07

61.96

74.94

43.00

54.75

39.9247.86

67.61

81.29

61.09

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6

Dropouts Graduates

Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Math –

Grades 2-6

17.00

30.13

62.47

30.4025.50

43.1648.30

62.35 60.4753.00

0

20

40

60

80

100

2 3 4 5 6

Dropouts Graduates

Grade Point Average Grades 9-12

1.27 1.31 1.231.01 0.88 0.92 0.77

1.19 1.29

2.75 2.73 2.81 2.69 2.80 2.75 2.692.98 2.86

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

9thGrade-

1stSem

9thGrade-

2ndSem

10thGrade-

1stSem

10thGrade-

2ndSem

11thGrade-

1stSem

11thGrade-

2ndSem

12thGrade-

1stSem

12thGrade-

2ndSem

Total

Dropouts Graduates

Grade Level Dropped Out of High School?

High School Dropouts exited school at grade level 10.43

High School English 1-4 Grades

1.12 0.980.77

1.00

2.49

2.882.69

2.24

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Eng1 Eng2 Eng3 Eng4

Dropouts Graduates

Other High School English Data

1.6

4.0

.76

2.26

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

DropoutsGraduates

Highest English

Course Taken

Grade in Highest EnglishCourse Taken

Other High School Math Data

.31

2.22

0

1

2

3

4

5

Highest Math Course Taken

DropoutsGraduates

0=Pre-Algebra, 1=Algebra 1, 2=Geometry, 3=Algebra 2,4=Trigonometry, 5=Calculus

Grade in Highest High School Math Course Taken?

1.02

2.04

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

DropoutsGraduates

Personal Data

.31.22

.15.07 .08

.030

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

Mobility Title 1 ELL

DropoutsGraduates

0=No, 1=Yes

Personal Data

.34

.78

.41

.28

.15.10

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

Extra Act FRL SPED

DropoutsGraduates

0=No, 1=Yes

Did the Student Have Discipline Issues?

.82

.26

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

DropoutsGraduates

0=No, 1=Yes

Grade First Identified as Discipline Problem?

4.66

6.25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

DropoutsGraduates

Was Student Placed in Diversion Programs, Standard Probation, or

Intense Probation?

0=No, 1=Yes

.36

.21 .24

.05.12

00

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

DiversionPrograms

StandardProbation

IntenseProbation

DropoutsGraduates

First Statistically Significant Differences Between High School

Graduates & Dropouts

Absenteeism – KindergartenReading – KindergartenSpelling – 2nd GradeEnglish – 2nd GradeWriting – KindergartenMath – KindergartenSocial Studies – 3rd GradeScience – 4th GradeStanford 6 – All strands of testIowa Basic Skills Test – 3rd Grade Reading & Math

All High School variables from 9th grade 1st semester

10 Largest Statistical Differences Between Graduates

& Dropouts

1. Did they take a foreign language?2. GPA 9th Grade 1st Semester3. Did they have discipline issues?4. 7th Grade Reading grade5. 8th Grade English grade6. 8th Grade Absenteeism 7. 7th Grade Math grade8. Total Non-Core classes taken in 9th Grade9. Did they participate in extra curricular activities?10.Were they retained?

Which Top 10 Variables Have Most Predictive

Power?

1. Foreign Language2. English 8th Grade3. Absenteeism 8th Grade4. Total Non-Core Classes 9th Grade Year5. Extra Curricular Activities

These 5 variables account for 78% of the variance of high schooldropouts

Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing

Subject Dropouts Graduates

Iowa 1st Grade Reading -.27 .091st Grade Reading Grade -.80 .33

Iowa 6th Grade Reading -.55 .206th Grade Reading Grade -.63 .36

Dropouts perform significantly lower in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability in 1st grade reading. Whereas, graduates perform significantly higher in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability. The same holds true for dropouts in 6th grade, however the margin is not significant. Finally, while dropouts make slight improvements in their classroom grades they decrease significantly in their standardized testing over time.

Standardized Values

Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing

Subject Dropouts Graduates

Stanford 5th Grade Math -.28 .245th Grade Math Grade -.35 .19

Stanford 8th Grade Math -.57 .298th Grade Math Grade -.73 .30

Dropouts perform slightly lower in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability in 5th grade math. Whereas, graduates perform slightly higher in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability. As time progresses graduates achieve with equal rigor on standardized testing and in the classroom, whereas dropouts significantly achieve less in the classroom overtime compared to their standardized testing ability. Not only do dropouts decrease in their classroom and standardized performances over time, but the gap in classroom performance becomes further behind their standardized testing ability.

Standardized Values

Key Findings of Study

• Academic differences between high school dropouts and graduates seem to surface well before students enter high school. In fact, according to these results, differences between the two groups are profound even in Kindergarten.

• While the two groups appear to start out with measurable differences, academic differences seem to diverge even more in middle school grades

• The differences between the two groups seem to be most apparent in:• Attendance and absenteeism in middle school

• Standardized testing

• Discipline records (probation and diversion)

• Aspects of family life such as presence of siblings and parents’ marital status

• Student characteristics such as ELL and SPED status, SES and mobility

• High school course choices (registering for core vs. non core classes)

• Measurable gaps in GPA across all grades (K-12)

Take 5

1. Pre-Kindergarten2. Middle School3. Attendance4. Class choices 9th grade year5. Student/Family Demographics

Conclusion

The analysis of this study provided a better understanding of the long-term impacts of early childhood educational progress on high school retention. By doing so, germane areas of success and failure throughout a students academic tenure were identified, informing educators about appropriate implementation strategies for education programs and interventions that could increase the likelihood of high school graduation.

Thank You!

Any Questions ?