Post on 17-Dec-2015
transcript
The Election
Ray Fair Model
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
VOTE with XGOODNEWSQuarters
GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate
GOODNEWS
VOTE
VOTE: Republican share of two-party
presidential vote in election
The vote equation for 2012 is then: VOTE = C + .B*GROWTH - .B*INFLATION + B*GOODNEWS
National Party identification 1937 -2012
National (Dem.)
National (Rep.)
South (Dem.) South (Rep.) Non-South (Dem.)
Non-South (Rep.)
1940 to 1950
0.8 -2.6 -13.4 5.5 1 -2.7
1950 to 1960
2.4 -4.4 -12.9 2.8 2.4 -3.6
1960 to 1970
-3.4 -1.5 -10.2 2.5 -1.8 -2.2
1970 to 1980
2.4 -3 3.9 0.3 1.9 -4.1
1980 to 1990
-11.2 10 -16.7 15.2 -9.3 8.21990 to 2000
1.3 -3.1 0 -2.3 1.8 -3.5
2000 to 2010
-2.4 -0.7 -4.5 0.6 -1.4 -1.5
Party Identification by Decade
Obama as Divider
Average R approval Average D approval Gap
Obama year 2 13 percent 83 percent 70%
Obama Year 3 12 percent 84 percent 72%
Independents will decide who wins
How Independents Vote in Presidential Elections (Exit Polls)
Source: National Election Pool
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
% R
epub
lica
n -
% D
emoc
rat
How Independents Vote in House Elections (Exit Polls)
Source: National Election Pool
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
% R
epub
lica
n -
% D
emoc
rat
47
45
Gallup Most Important Problem(June 2012)
Economy (General) 31 %
Unemployment 25
Government 12
Federal Budget Deficit 11
Healthcare 6
Lack of money 5
Ethical / Moral decline 4
Education 4
The Presidential Election: Historical Approval Richard NixonDwight Eisenhower Jimmy Carter
Ronald Reagan Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
George H.W. Bush
Barack Obama
2008: Obama 365, McCain 173
MA-12MT-3
WA-11
OR-7
CA-54
NV-4
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-8
WY-3
CO-8
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-8
KS-6
TX-32LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA-7
MN-10
IL-22
WI -11
IN-12
KY-8
TN-11
MS-7 AL-9
SC-8
GA-13
FL-25
NC-14
VA-13WV-5
OH-21
PA-23
NY-33
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-8NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-18
NH-4
ObamaMcCain
Strategy & the 2008 Electoral College
Changed Electorate 08-2012
Minority voters (80% Obama) UP 3% from 2008
White working class (41% Obama) DOWN from 2008 by 3%
Examples: Nevada minority vote UP 9% from 08While white working class is DOWN 5%Wisconsin : minorities UP 3% white working class
DOWN 7%
2012 ELECTORAL COLLEGE ANALYSISRepublicans need to pick-up 90 Electoral Votes
MA-11MT-3
WA-11
OR-8
CA-54
NV-5-12.5
ID-4
UT-6
NM-5-15.1
AZ-10
WY-3
CO-8-8.1
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-8
KS-6
TX-36LA-8
AR-6
MO-10
IA-6-9.6
MN-9-10.2
IL-21
WI -11-13.9
IN-12-1.0
KY-8
TN-11
MS-7 AL-9
SC-9
GA-14
FL-26-2.8
NC-14-0.4
VA-13-6.3
WV-5
OH-19-4.5
PA-22-10.3
NY-32
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-8NJ-14
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17
NH-4-9.6
Strategy & the 2012 Electoral CollegeSwing states both Democratic and Republican
MT
OR-7
CA-55
NV
ID-4
UT-5
NM
AZ
WY-3
CO
NE-5
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-34LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA
MN-10
IL-21
WI
IN
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL
NC
VAWV-5
OH
PA
NY-31
NH-
Strategy & the 2012 Electoral CollegeThe battleground states for 2012
3
-4
3
5
6
4
-27
11
2
-5
6
6-2
-4
8
Things not to pay attention to.
The Public’s Interest
Average # of Viewers (Millions)
Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/business/media/republican-debates-are-a-hot-ticket-on-tv.html?pagewanted=all,
American Idol 29.3Dancing with the Stars 18.42 Broke Girls 19.2
2012 Florida GOP Debate 5.4
O’Reilly 3.6 Fox News 2.7
Rachel Maddow 0.4
YouGov Campaign Poll
“In a press conference last week, President Obama was asked about the state of the economy. How did he describe economic growth in the private sector?”
“The private sector is doing fine.” 47%
“The private sector is struggling.” 9
“The private sector is mostly the same as it was.” 4
“I didn’t hear what he said.” 39
Other Examples
Romney “very poor” 34 %
Obama “birth control mandate” 26
Santorum “birth control” 43
Romney “Etch-A-Sketch” 45
What did Obama Say? (6/16-18)
Didn’t hear 39
18-29 51
30-64 39
65+ 25
Male 30
Female 48
Democrat 43
Republican 35
Independent 29
Santorum’s Position? (3/3-6)
Didn’t hear 43
18-29 40
30-64 46
65+ 39
Male 34
Female 52
Democrat 39
Republican 48
Independent 36
The Republican Nomination Contest
Iowa Caucus 6.5 %
New Hampshire Primary 31.1
South Carolina Primary 17.6
Florida Primary 12.8
Nevada Caucus 1.9
Minnesota Caucus* 1.2
Colorado Caucus 1.8
Missouri Primary 7.4
Maine Caucus* .5
Betting pools President
Most competitive House seats(242R – 191D)
. TX-27 (Open - R) 14. MD-6 (Bartlett - R)
2. IL-11 (Open - R) 15. IL-10 (Dold - R)
3. IL-8 (Open - R) 16. FL-22 (Open - R)
4. CA-41 (Open - R) 17. NH-2 (Bass - R)
5. NC-13 (Open - D) 18. IL-12 (Open - D)
6. CA-31 (Miller - R) 19. NC-7 (McIntyre - D)
7. IN-2 (Open - D) 20. CA-7 (Lungren - R)
8. IL-17 (Schilling - R) 21. UT-4 (Matheson - D)
9. NC-11 (Open - D) 22. WA-1 (Open - D)
10. NC-8 (Kissell - D) 23. CA-24 (Capps - D)
11. GA-12 (Barrow - D) 24. NV-3 (Heck - R)
12. AR-4 (Open - D) 25. MN-8 (Cravaack –R)
13. OK-2 (Open – D)
DemocratConnecticutHawaiiMichiganNew MexicoOhio
Toss UpsFloridaMassachusettsMissouriMontanaNevadaNorth DakotaVirginia
RepublicansArizonaIndianaNebraska
Wisconsin47 Democrats Five lean or solid Republican
Two lean or solid Democrat One toss-up
45 Republicans
Betting pools House
Betting pools Senate
The End Thank You
MA-12MT-3
OR-7
CA-55
NV-6
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-10
WY-3
CO-9
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-38LA-9
AR-6
MO-10
IA-6
MN-10
IL-21
WI -10
IN-11
KY-8
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL-29
NC-15
VA-13
OH-18
PA-20
NY-31
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-7NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17
NH-4
Best Hopes for Changes from 2008-2012
Wash 11
WV
MA-12MT-3
OR-7
CA-55
NV-5
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-10
WY-3
CO-9
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-34LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA-7
MN-10
IL-21
WI -10
IN-11
KY-8
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL-27
NC-15
VA-13
OH-20
PA-21
NY-31
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-7NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17
NH-4
Electoral College 2008
Wash 11
WV
• I was just going over the primary rules and polls today, and I noticed• >> that Romney has a huge advantage in the Winner Take All primaries• >> (Arizona, California, Florida, New Jersey, Utah). They account for• >> 375 delegates, and he leads (or has won) in almost all of these WTA• >> states. If he stays up in the polls in those states (as he currently• >> is) it will be very hard for Santorum to catch Romney in delegates,• >> even if Santorum wins a larger share of the vote in the primaries.• >> What are the chances that Santorum beats Romney in California?• >>• >> In this respect, the GOP primaries resemble the Gary Hart v. Walter• >> Mondale contest.
WAR
WAR
The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections
David Brady and Morris Fiorina
Hoover Institution
July 11, 2012
“A week in politics is a long time”
(4 months in politics is a very long time)
Gallup Trial Heats
August 1948: Dewey > Truman + 11
August 1976: Carter > Ford + 22
August 1980: Carter = Reagan even
August 1988: Dukakis > Bush + 12
August 2000: Bush > Gore + 7
August 2008: Obama = McCain even
Republican Nomination Contest
Santorum
Romney
Road Map
• Where is U.S. coming from (politically)?
• What happened between 2008 and 2012?
• The 2012 election (Brady)
Republican Realignment?
Pres House Senate
2000 R R R
2002 R R R
2004 R R R
Karl Rove
“The real prize is creating a Republican majority that would be as solid as, say, the Democratic coalition that Franklin Roosevelt created--a majority that would last for a generation …”
(Nicholas Lemann interview, New Yorker, May 12, 2003.
2006: Republican “Thumpin”
House -30 seats
Senate - 6 seats
Governors - 6 states
James Carville, 2009
40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009)
2010: The Great Shellacking
House 63 seats
Senate 6 seats
Governors 7 states
State Legislatures ~17 chambers
State Legislators 675 +
Patterns of Institutional Control
Pres House Senate
2004 R R R
2006 R D D
2008 D D D
2010 D R D
Normal People
Uninformed, Confused, Ambivalent
(Busy)
Not Extreme, Pragmatic, Not Ideological
Little Change in Partisanship
'52 '56 '60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Strong and Weak Democrats Independents including leaners Strong and Weak Republicans
Per
cent
Source: ANES
Little Change in Voter Ideology
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Liberal Moderate Conservative
Per
cen
t
Source: GSS
Political Overreach
• Lyndon Johnson 1964-1966-1968• Jimmy Carter 1976-1980• Bill Clinton 1992-94• Newt Gingrich 1994-96• George W. Bush 2004-2006-2008• Barack Obama 2008-2010-?
George W. Bush
“I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.” (2004)
“On social security, I may have misread the electoral mandate …” (2010)
“… generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs for the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”
Barack Obama, June 4, 2008
Approval Rating of George W. Bush
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Feb-0
1
May
-01
Aug-0
1
Nov-0
1
Feb-0
2
May
-02
Aug-0
2
Nov-0
2
Feb-0
3
May
-03
Aug-0
3
Nov-0
3
Feb-0
4
May
-04
Aug-0
4
Nov-0
4
Feb-0
5
May
-05
Aug-0
5
Nov-0
5
Feb-0
6
May
-06
Aug-0
6
Nov-0
6
Feb-0
7
May
-07
Aug-0
7
Nov-0
7
Feb-0
8
May
-08
Aug-0
8
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Ap
pro
vin
g o
f G
eo
rge
W B
us
h's
Jo
b A
s P
res
ide
nt
Source: The Gallup Organization
State of the Country: Right Direction v. Wrong Track
Note: July 9th, 2012 most recent data point
Obama Job Approval
Note: Latest data from July 9, 2012.
Health Care Plan
Note: Latest data from 12/7/2011.
Obama Job Approval: Independents
Note: Latest data from 2/21/2012