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MEDITERRANEAN PAPER SERIES 2013
THE FUTURE OF MEDITERRANEANEUROPE: BETWEEN THE EURO CRISIS
AND ARAB REVOLUTIONA REFLECTION ON THE SEVENTH MEETING OF THEMEDITERRANEAN STRATEGY GROUP
Emiliano Alessandri
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2013 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writingrom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States1744 R Street, NWWashington, DC 20009
1 202 683 2650F 1 202 265 1662E in o@gm us.org
GMF Paper SeriesTe GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta , ellows, and partners o the GermanMarshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to in o@gm us.org.
About GMFTe German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, andglobal challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu-tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities,by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewedcommitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democra-cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-pro t organization through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial toMarshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters inWashington, DC, GMF has ofces in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and unis. GMF also hassmaller representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.
About the Mediterranean Policy ProgramTe Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues a ecting Southern Europe, NorthA rica, the Levant, and the Mediterranean basin. Priority areas include: understanding trends in Mediterranean societies;exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration; research on key unctional issues a ecting Mediter-ranean security and development; and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlanticcooperation on Mediterranean strategy.
Cover photo: Protesting against social cuts in Valencia, Spain on February 25, 2012. Eduardo Luzzatti Buy
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The Future of Mediterranean Europe:Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution
A Reflection on the Seventh Meeting of the MediterraneanStrategy Group 1
Mediterranean Paper Series
April 2013
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 1
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 13
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 17
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Mediterranean Strategy Group Lisbon
February 25 27, 2013
The Future of Mediterranean Europe:Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution
Organized in cooperation with the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI), and in partnership with theCompagnia di San Paolo, OCP Foundation, Noble Energy, the Luso-American Foundation, and the Calouste
Gulbenkian Foundation
AGENDA
Monday, February 25
Participants arrive throughout the day at York House (Rua das Janelas Verdes 32, Lisbon)and As JanelasVerdes (Rua Janelas Verdes 47, Lisbon)
1800 Participants gather in the lobbies of York House and As Janelas Verdes and depart for
City Hall (Praa do Municpio 1, Lisbon) via shuttle bus
1830 1930 Cocktail ReceptionLocation: Lisbon City Hall
1930 2100 Welcome DinnerLocation: Aura Restaurant (Praa do Comrcio Terreiro do Pao, Lisbon)
Tuesday, February 26
830 840 Participants gather in the lobbies of York House and As Janelas Verdes and depart forLuso-American Foundation (Rua Sacramento Lapa 21, Lisbon).
900 930 Opening RemarksLocation: Luso-American Foundation
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Craig KennedyPresident, German Marshall Fund of the United States, WashingtonCharles BuchananAdministrator, Fundao Luso-Americana, LisbonEttore GrecoDirector, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome
930 1100 Session I The European Crisis and Mediterranean Europe: Economic, Social andPolitical ChallengesLocation: Luso-American Foundation
Southern Europe is at the center of the economic turmoil affecting the Eurozone. From Portugal toGreece, societies are facing enormous challenges of austerity, uncertainty and adjustment. Thecountries of Europes Mediterranean south are among the leading stakeholders in the economicand political future of Europe, but they are also exposed to, and dependent on, decisions taken inBerlin and elsewhere. What are the sources of the crises in Europes south? What is the economicoutlook? What are the potential social and political consequences of a crisis that is taking different forms across the region?
Moderator:Emiliano Alessandri
Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States, Washington
Discussants:
Megan GreeneChief Economist, Maverick Intelligence, LondonDimitris KourkoulasDeputy Minister for EU Affairs, Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Athens Andres OrtegaEditorial Writer, El Pais , MadridFrancisco Seixas da Costa Director, North-South Centre, Lisbon
1100 1130 Coffee Break
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1130 1300 Session II The Revolutions Next Door: Southern Europe and Change in the MENALocation: Luso-American Foundation
Europes Southern neighbors across the Mediterranean have been swept by an unprecedentedwave of uprisings. In every case, the post-revolutionary transitions have not been smooth, and further turmoil may be in store. Southern Europe will be directly affected by the economic, political and security future of neighbors across the Mediterranean. What are the likelydevelopments, from migration to spillovers of political violence? What are the potential positivedevelopments flowing from change across the MENA? How might Southern European futures beshaped by Mediterranean-wide trends?
Moderator: Alexandra De Hoop-SchefferOffice Director, German Marshall Fund of the United States, Paris
Discussants: Toms Dupl del MoralFormer Director for the Americas, European External Action Service, Brussels Ghazi Ben AhmedExecutive Director, GMF Tunis, TunisMichalis AttalidesRector, University of Nicosia, Nicosia
Claire SpencerHead, Middle East & North Africa Programme, Chatham House, London
1300 1400 LuncheonLocation: Luso-American Foundation
1400 1530 Session III Southern Europe in the Mediterranean Equation Who Will Drive FutureMediterranean Partnerships?Location: Luso-American Foundation
Southern European countries have been leading advocates of EU, NATO and bilateral dialogueand cooperation across the Mediterranean. How have Europes crises and MENA revolutionsaffected this longstanding vocation and its prospects? Can Southern Europe still lead, or does thecoincidence of crises mean that the shape and character of its leadership must change? What canwe expect from the EU and Euro-Atlantic partners? Is there a new place for Turkey? What will be
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the role of civil society on both sides of the Mediterranean, and is there a special role for SouthernEuropean institutions?
Moderator:Sir Michael LeighSenior Advisor, German Marshall Fund of the United States, Brussels
Discussants:Nathalie TocciDeputy Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali, RomeRanda AchmawiPolitical Commentator and Consultant on MENA Region Politics , LondonIsabelle Montoya
Senior Advisor, European Parliament, BrusselsMarc Pierini Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Brussels
1830 Participants gather in the lobbies of York House and As Janelas Verdes and depart for Grmio Literrio (Rua Ivens 37, Lisbon) via shuttle bus.
1900 2100 Cocktail Reception and Gala DinnerLocation: Grmio Literrio, Biblioteca Room
Wednesday, February 27
830 840 Participants gather in the lobbies of York House and As Janelas Verdes and depart forLuso-American Foundation (Rua Sacramento Lapa 21, Lisbon).
900 1030 Session IV Southern Europe and U.S. StrategyLocation: Luso-American Foundation
The U.S. has been among the leading beneficiaries of the progressive Europeanization of Southern Europe. Once difficult bilateral relationships have, in general, become part of the overall
U.S.-EU relationship. The integration of Europes south has paid clear political and securitydividends for Washington, at a time when partnership and power projection beyond Europe hastaken center stage. How will this trajectory be affected by the current European crisis and the potential for a new north-south divide in Europe? What role can and should the U.S. play inEuropes crisis, and its southern dimension? Does American engagement still matter?
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Moderator:Ian LesserExecutive Director, Transatlantic Center, German Marshall Fund of the United States,Brussels
Discussants:Alessandro Minuto-RizzoSenior Strategic Advisor, ENEL Holding, Rome Robert BellSecretary of Defense Representative, Europe, and Defense Advisor to the U.S. Mission toNATO, BrusselsPeter Swartz Principal Research Scientist, Center for Naval Analyses, Washington
1030 1100 Coffee Break
1100 1230 Session V Thinking Beyond the Crises: Reinventing Southern Europe
Location: Luso-American Foundation
Challenges north and south, against a backdrop of larger, global power shifts, raise fundamentalquestions about the future of Southern Europe, both within Europe and on the international scene.In a period of European enlargement, Europes southern members were models for developmentand integration economic and political. What now? To what extent do current crises offer anopportunity for change at the level of societies, including youth participation, the structure of economies, and governance? What are the consequences of inaction? What are the alternative futures? How can they be shaped? Who can do the shaping?
Moderator:Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffSenior Transatlantic Fellow and Senior Director for Strategy , German Marshall Fund ofthe United States, Washington
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Discussants: Luis Amado
Chairman, Banco Internacional do Funchal, Lisbon Ahmet EvinExecutive Committee Member, Istanbul Policy Center, IstanbulElena Panaritis Founder and Director, Panel Group/Thought For Action, Washington
1230 1300 Concluding Remarks and Next StepsLocation: Luso-American Foundation
Emiliano Alessandri
Senior Transatlantic Fellow , German Marshall Fund of the United States, Washington
1300 1400 Luncheon and DepartureLocation: Luso-American Foundation
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Mediterranean Strategy Group Lisbon
November 12 14, 2012
The Future of Mediterranean Europe: Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution
PARTICIPANT LIST
Randa Achmawi Journalist, Commentator and ConsultantAl-Ahram HebdoLondon
Emiliano AlessandriSenior Transatlantic FellowGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesWashington
Luis AmadoChairmanBanif - Banco Internacional do Funchal, SALisbon
Ekavi AthanassopoulouSenior Research FellowHellenic Foundation for European and ForeignPolicyAthens
Michalis AttalidesRectorUniversity of NicosiaNicosia
Elisabete Azevedo-HarmanVice-Director of the Institute for PoliticalStudies and Coordinator of the ResearchCenterUniversidade Catlica PortuguesaLisbon
Robert BellSecretary of Defense Representative, Europe,and Defense Advisor
Mission of the United States to NATOBrussels
Mohammed BelmahiChairmanOCP Foundation
Rabat
Ghazi Ben AhmedDirector, MENA TrustGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesTunis
Jorge Braga de MacedoPresidentIICTLisbon
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2
Charles BuchananAdministrator and Vice PresidentFundao Luso-AmericanaLisbon
Graa Maria da Fonseca Caetano GonalvesCity CouncillorCity Council of LisbonLisbon
Giancarlo ChevallardPresidentParalleli - Istituto Euromediterraneo del NordOvestTurin
Alexandra de Hoop SchefferOffice DirectorGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesParis
Massimo DeandreisDirector GeneralIntesa SanpaoloNaples
Mnica DiasAssistant Professor of the Institute of PoliticalStudiesUniversidade Catlica PortuguesaLisbon
Toms Dupl del MoralFormer Director for the AmericasEuropean External Action ServiceBrussels
Ahmet EvinExecutive Committee MemberIstanbul Policy CenterIstanbul
Nora Fisher Onar
Assistant ProfessorBaheehir University Istanbul
Ettore Greco
DirectorIstituto Affari InternazionaliRome
Megan GreeneChief EconomistMaverick IntelligenceLondon
Craig KennedyPresidentGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesWashington
Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffSenior Transatlantic Fellow and Senior Directorfor StrategyGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesWashington
Dimitris KourkoulasDeputy MinisterMinistry of Foreign Affairs, GreeceAthens
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3
Alberto Laplaine GuimaraesSecretary-GeneralMunicipality of LisbonLisbon
Michael LeighSenior AdvisorGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesBrussels
Ian LesserExecutive Director, Brussels Office and SeniorDirector for Foreign and Security PolicyGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesBrussels
Alejandro Lorca CorrnsProfessor EmeritusUniversidad Autnoma de MadridMadrid
Hamdi LozaEgyptian Ambassador to LisbonEmbassy of the Arab Republic of EgyptLisbon
Bruno MacaesSenior Policy AdvisorPrime Minister's Office, PortugalLisbon
Gonalo MatiasAssistant ProfessorUniversidade Catlica PortuguesaLisbon
Catarina Mendes LealPolicy AdvisorMinistry of National Defense, PortugalLisbon
Alessandro Minuto-RizzoPresidentNato Defense College Foundation
Rome
Isabelle Montoya-WilkinsonPrincipal Administrator, Committee on ForeignAffairs
European ParliamentBrussels
Andres OrtegaAnalyst and Editorial WriterEl PasMadrid
Elena PanaritisDirector and FounderPanel Group/Thought for ActionWashington
Marc Pierini
Visiting ScholarCarnegie Endowment for International PeaceBrussels
Nabila Ramdani
JournalistFreelanceLondon
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Nicolo Russo PerezProgram Manager, International Relations andEuropean IntegrationCompagnia di San PaoloTurin
Francisco Seixas da CostaDirector, North-South CentreCouncil of EuropeLisbon
Chrysostomos SfatosDirectorVeritas Strategic SolutionsAthens
Claire SpencerHead, Middle East & North Africa ProgrammeChatham HouseLondon
Peter SwartzPrincipal Research ScientistCenter for Naval AnalysesWashington
Nathalie TocciDeputy DirectorIstituto Affari InternazionaliRome
Nuno TorresNational Defense Policy DirectorPortuguese Ministry of National DefenseLisbon
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