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THE FUTURE OF WORKIEDC FUTURE FORUM: BUFFALO, NYJOHN KARRAS, JUNE 2018
THEORY INTO PRACTICE
We design strategies that will
support your community’s
vision for the future.
OUR FRAMEWORK
Talent
Innovation Place
THREE QUESTIONS ABOUT
THE FUTURE OF WORK
1. What will work look like?
2. Where will the work
occur?
3. What are EDOs doing to
prepare for the future?
1. WHAT WILL WORK LOOK LIKE
(AND WHO WILL DO IT?)
HISTORICAL SHIFTS DUE TO TECHNOLOGYShare of total employment by sector in the US, 1850-2015 (% of jobs)
Source: IPUMS USA 2017; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis.
THE IMPACT OF AUTOMATIONAutomation will have a major impact globally
Source: McKinsey Global Institute. “Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages.” December, 2017.
50%of current work activities are
technically automatable by
adapting currently
demonstrated technologies
6 of 10Current occupations have
more than 30% of activities
that are technically
automatable
WORKFORCE IS RAPIDLY DIGITALIZINGComparative Jobs by Digital Score, 2002 and 2016
Source: Brookings Institution. “Digitalization and the American Workforce.”
Note: Low digital scores are 33 and below; medium are 33 to 60; and high are 60 to 100.
2002 2016
In low digital jobs
In medium digital jobs
In highly digital jobs
66 M
49 M
69 M
41 M
6 M32 M
5%
23%
40%
47%
56%
29%
2002 2016
IT’S WAY MORE THAN
CNC MACHINES
It’s machines, robots, software
programs, and technologies
that haven’t even been
experienced yet.
IT’S NEW BUSINESS
MODELS TOO
Dell Computer, YouTube, Spotify, Uber
What would best illustrate
this?
LOOMING RETIREMENTSAge Distribution of Employed Workers, as of December 2017
Source: EMSI 2017.4 Complete Employment.
35 million
employed workers
are or will be eligible
to retire in the next
10 years
23%55 & over
FEWER ENTRANTS TO THE LABOR MARKETProjected Net Annual Change in the US Working-Age Population
Sources: TIP Strategies, U.S. Census Bureau (NP2014_D1)
“Working-age” defined as 18-66 (average planned retirement age based on April 2014 Gallup poll.
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,0002
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COUNTER FORCES
• Advancement of
retirement age
• Relaxed immigration
restrictions
• Technology reduces
employment needs
• Out-sourcing of labor
to cheaper markets
2027
0.0
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Ratio of employee compensation to after-tax corporate profits (10-year moving average)
A HEALTHY ECONOMY WITH FEWER WORKERSThe Post-WWII Corporate Balance of Capital and Labor
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP Table 1.14
2. WHERE WILL THE WORK OCCUR?
2
THE GEOGRAPHY OF JOBSNet Job Gains/Losses by Metropolitan Statistical Area
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics; TIP Strategies
THE GEOGRAPHY OF RECOVERYCumulative Change in Employment Since the Beginning of the Great Recession
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics; TIP Strategies
REMOTE WORKERS
ARE INCREASING
“Going to work” ain’t what it
used to be.
The office, the job, and the
work are less tied to a location.
3.3%
5.0%
20
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THE PERCENT OF REMOTE WORKERS IS GROWINGPercent of employed people working remotely in the US, 2000-2016
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
1.9%
2.1%
2.7%
2.9%
2.9%
3.0%
3.2%
3.3%
3.4%
3.4%
5.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.1%
7.1%
7.2%
7.4%
7.5%
7.8%
8.1%
8.7%
Jackson, MS
Augusta, GA
Baton Rouge, LA
Birmingham, AL
Buffalo, NY
Toledo, OH
El Paso, TX
Columbia, SC
Bakersfield, CA
Little Rock, AR
US
Atlanta, GA
Sacramento, CA
Portland, OR
San Diego, CA
Provo, UT
Tampa, FL
North Port-Sarasota, FL
Raleigh, NC
Denver, CO
Austin, TX
WORKERS ARE VOTING WITH THEIR FEETTop 10 and bottom 10 MSAs (of 100 largest) by share of remote workers
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
UNCONVENTIONAL
WORK SPACES ARE
ON THE RISE
Coworking spaces like WeWork are changing the
culture of work for millions of
workers and entrepreneurs.
DUAL CAMPUSES
Amazon’s HQ2 search is changing the game.
Companies like Indeed and HomeAway have dual campuses in Austin.
Downtown Austin
Austin’s “Second Downtown”
3. WHAT ARE EDOs DOING TO PREPARE
FOR THE FUTURE?
LAS VEGASinnovate.vegas
• Downtown
Innovation District
• Smart City projects
& programs
• The Downtown
Project
Will insert appropriate
image
FORT WORTHMedical Innovation
District
• Largest healthcare
job cluster in MSA
• Urban revitalization
& hip/edgy vibe
• New TCU-UNTHSC
School of Medicine
ASHEVILLEThe business side of
climate data
• National Centers for
Environmental
Information (NCEI)
• ClimateCon 2018
• The Collider
VERMONTAggressive talent
attraction
• $10 K to each
remote worker who
relocates
• Does it matter that
the company
doesn’t relocate?
• What about existing
workers?
ONE QUESTION FOR YOU
How are you, as an EDO,
allocating your resources?
• Funding
• Staff and their skills
• ED tools
QUESTIONS
?
THANK YOU
2905 San Gabriel StreetSuite 205Austin, TX 78705
512.343.9113
www.tipstrategies.com
“Full employment is an economic
situation in which all workers
who are willing and able are
employed and any
unemployment that remains is
structural, frictional, or voluntary.”
UNEMPLOYMENT HAS DECLINED STEADILYUS Unemployment Rate, 2007 - 2017
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
5%
10%
4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
200
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201
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WIDE DISPARITY BY REGIONUnemployment by County, as of December 2017
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Note: red is less than 4.1; blue is more than 4.1.
WHERE ACCESS IS AVAILABLERatio of Residential Fixed High-Speed Connections to Households, 2016
Source: FCC.