The Graduation Cohort Α to Ω

transcript

The Graduation CohortΑ to Ω

The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 required states to establish data systems to track the rate of students who graduate “on time” with a “regular diploma.”

Link to cohort rules as currently required by US ED (4/28/2010)http://www.mde.k12.ms.us/dropout_prevention/hsgrguidance.pdf

Louisiana began tracking the 9th grade class of 2002-03 and used their graduation rates of 2005-06 in the subgroup component (NCLB) in the fall 2007 accountability release.

Louisiana uses the same definition of “cohort” to generate the graduation index that counts for 30% of a high school’s SPS.

The examples in this presentation are based on a 9th grade cohort

beginning in the fall of 2010.

Cohort membership is established at the state level.

All students enter a cohort when they are enrolled in SIS as first time

9th graders.

Students are never moved from one cohort to another.

Take all students enrolled in the State Student Information System

(SIS) as 9th graders in 2010-11.

9th Graders 2010-11

Remove any student who appeared in SIS as a 9th, 10th, 11th, or 12th grader in the previous 3 years.

First Time 9th Graders 2010-11

9-12 2009-10

9-12 2008-09

9-12 2007-08

This is the “starting” freshman cohort.

First Time 9th Graders 2010-11

All of these students will appear on someone’s cohort roster.

Add any student who transfers into the state public school system from

Oct. 1, 2010 until EOY 2014.

All of these students will appear on someone’s cohort roster.

Remove any student who “transfers” out of the Louisiana public school system

from Oct. 1, 2010 until EOY 2014.Adjusted 2014 Graduating Cohort

The remaining students will be included in the calculations.

Count the total number of students. Count the number of students who

have earned a diploma by Oct. 1, 2014.

Divide the number of diplomas by the total number of students.

Adjusted 2014 Graduating Cohort

2006 Louisiana Graduating Cohort48,874 members31,670 graduates (on time with at least a regular diploma)64.8%

2009 Louisiana Graduating Cohort (preliminary)66.6%

We established all cohort members in the state, and we know which

students earned a standard diploma in 4 years (or less). In fact, we know how every student exited the system

(grad, GED, skills certificate, etc.).

Moving from State Cohort to District

All students in the state files are placed in a district and school file,

BUT all of the students do not count in the calculation

To calculate for a district, take all students who:

1. count in the state; and2. have their last enrollment record in

the specific district; and3. were enrolled in the district before

Oct. 1, 2012 (cohort year 3)

To calculate for a school, take all students who:

1. count in the district; and2. have their last enrollment record in

the specific school; and3. were enrolled in the school before

Oct. 1, 2013 (cohort year 4)

Moving from District Cohort to School

As previously noted, a cohort is defined the same for Graduation Rate and for Graduation Index.

Grad Rate simply asks what percentage of the cohort graduated on time – similar to a student being proficient or not on ELA and math.

Index vs Rate

Grad Index breaks the two categories (grad and non-grad)

into many.

Note - the career diploma will be considered a regular diploma.

Index vs Rate

Non-Graduate

Academic OR Career/Technical EndorsementTOPS Opportunity Award BESE Approved Industry Based Certification OR TOPS Tech and Dual Enrollment OR TOPS Tech and Articulated CreditRegular HS DiplomaGED

Skills Certificate/Certificate of Achievement

Attendee

Dropout

Students who continue in school a 5th and/or 6th year can earn

incentive points for the school.

A student who is counted as an attendee in year 4 (30 pts), who

continues and earns a diploma in year 5 (120 pts), earns 90

incentive points.

Incentive Points

Saintly Data for a Clean Calculation

We can’t calculate an accurate score if we aren’t

using accurate data, and the only data we have is what

you submitted.

There’s nothing easy about it.

Also applies to CATE, SER, STS, LOSFA24

But some things are easier than others,

Data Certification

and the easiest is doing it right the first time.

Student Information System (SIS)

SIS is the most important!1. MFP $$

2. Assessment

3. Attendance

4. In and Out -When Why How

The most important for Grad Data

In and Out -When Why How

Determines

1. If the student is in the cohort

2. Why the student counts

3. How the student may “count”

We use 8 years of SIS data to create the building blocks for the cohort.

An error in any one of those years can mean an error in the final cohort results.

It is essential that SIS be “clean” each and every year at least 3 times a year –

Oct. 1, Feb. 1., EOY

Second Chance (and 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th)

larger load, higher hill 29

You have multiple opportunities to check and correct the data – for at

least 6 months after EOY.

Scenario 1

Your superintendent attends a “retreat” in fall 2010 and receives a handout showing declining district

AND school grad rates.

How do you find out where the problem is?

Scenario 1

If there is an error, it is in the 8 years of SIS data we used for our

calculation.

That information is summarized in the grad cohort rosters – available

in the following spring.32

Scenario 1

Districts have traditionally had around 6 months after the end of a school year to correct SIS data, but

this may shorten this year.

The data certification process is your last chance.

Scenario 1

And I hope we can move data certification to the last SIS

cleanup window.

Last ChanceData Certification

Last Chance

For the first time, you have a chance to correct the data BEFORE it is

used in accountability.

This doesn’t mean it wasn’t reported before and you may have taken heat

over the numbers.

Last Chance

Up until now, you have kept records related to the cohort scores in your district/schools – we haven’t asked

for proof.

Now, you have to contact each school, collect documentation, and

send it to the LDE.37

Scenario 2

At the preliminary accountability release in 2012 (AUS <75), your high school has an SPS of 74.9. You are required to implement sanctions, which requires the revision of your Title 1 budget and all of the delightful repercussions associated with it.

Now you get to explain to your superintendent and board exactly

how this happened.They ask if it’s possible the “state”

made an error.Data Certification occurred before

the release.

Scenario 2

Cohort Ins and Outs

Driven by:

Federal Policy (and NCES)

Louisiana PolicyData Collection Systems

LEA Data Submission – LDE Timelines

National Governor’s Association40

So, why is this student a dropout?

This refers to the dropout roster that deals with 1 year of data only – not the cohort.

Who was enrolled in academic year XX-XX and who can’t be accounted for on Oct. 1 the

following year?

The documentation required for certain exit codes is changing in Bulletin 111.

If a student exits with code 08 or 09 that student must show up in the LA state system by the following October 1st. Failure to locate the student in SIS by October 1st results in a dropout.

000411 Cranberry High School BISHUP, JOSHUA 233220705 01/06/1990 09 3 08/17/2007 E1 12/17/2007 08 Y

000411 Cranberry High School BANKS, ROBB 631576478 08/27/1991 10 5 08/17/2007 E1 01/15/2008 09 Y

Site Code Site Name Student Name Student ID Birth Date Grade Ethnicity Entry DateEntry Code Exit Date

Exit Code

Drop Flag

Transfer within district/Transfer within state:

If a student exits with code 11 that student is required to obtain a GED by October 1st of the following school year. Upon GED completion, a school must re-enroll the student for 1 day, enter and exit date = same day, exit code = 05. Failure to do so results in a dropout.

Exit Code

Drop Flag

000411 Cranberry High School ARMSTRONG, MAC 936311348 10/17/1992 09 5 08/17/2007 E1 08/17/2007 11 Y

Transfer to Adult Education:

If a student exits with code 01 that student must re-enroll in school by October 1st of the following school year. Failure to do results in a dropout.

Exit Code

Drop Flag

000411 Cranberry High School BRIDGES, ALLISON 391927880 08/24/1987 12 3 08/23/2006 E2 11/01/2006 01 Y

Expulsion (no option to return/with return date):

No Show:

Exit Code

Drop Flag

000411 Cranberry High School BLUEBERRY, JAM 761030327 05/03/1991 10 3 08/17/2007 E1 08/17/2007 18 Y

If a student exits with code 18, or fails to return to school by October 1st of the following school year, the student is a “No Show”. Failure to provide verifiable documentation that the student is enrolled elsewhere results in a dropout.

Grad Cohort in Data CertTips to Save Time

“How to Say Please”

The Key Points for Data Certification

How is the student counted?How “should” the student be counted?Why should the student be counted as you

request?What documentation do you have to

support the request?

If the explanation is not clear, we will not explore the data to figure out what you may want.

Timelines are tight and will get tighter.

For the upcoming grad cohort data certification, we are dealing with the first time freshmen of 2005-06, the graduating class of Spring 2009.

We don’t count anything that occurred after Oct. 1, 2009.

Don’t request points for a student that “finished” during 2009-10.

Student Name Entry Date Exit Date Exit Code Policy Peter Pan 08/10/2007 05/18/2008 11 Must obtain GED by Oct. 1, 2008

Robin Hood 08/10/2008 09/17/2008 11 Must obtain GED by Oct. 1, 2009

• GED – a student is required to obtain a GED by October 1st of the following school year to avoid being counted as a dropout in the cohort. Upon GED completion, a school must re-enroll the student for 1 day, enter and exit date = same day, exit code = 05

• GEE – a student is must pass the GEE by the first day of the following school year to earn grad points. Upon GEE completion, a school must re-enroll the student for 1 day, enter and exit date = same day, exit code = 04

Student Name School Year Entry Date Exit Date Exit Code Cohort End StatusPeter Pan 2007-2008 08/10/2007 05/18/2008 17 Attendee

Peter Pan 2008-2009 08/10/2008 08/10/2008 04 Graduate

* Failure to properly identify the GEE student as a summer grad results in the student remaining an attendee. Proof of graduation will grant incentive points the following year.

Student appears twice on roster.

School ID

School Name

Last NameFirst Name

Student ID

Birthday

Year Student Entered Cohort

Last Grade Place- ment

Exit DateExit Code

End Category Determination

Points Awarded

Site Flag

LEA Flag

123123Disney High CLUCK BUCK XXXX 08/29/1989 Freshman 12 05/3/2007 04 Graduate 140 Y Y

123123Disney High CROCKET DAVEY XXXX 07/28/1989 Sophomore 12 09/29/2006 02 Dropout 0 Y Y

123123Disney High DEVIL, CRUELL XXXX 07/29/1989 Junior 12 11/1/2006 14

Legitimate Leaver N/A N N

123123Disney High FROLLO CLAUDE XXXX 06/12/1988 Freshman 09 08/7/2005 10

Legitimate Leaver N/A Y Y

123123Disney High HUDSON DOC XXXX 08/10/1988 Freshman 12 10/24/2006 11 Attendee 30 Y

123123Disney High POPPINS MARY XXXX 10/12/1988 Freshman 12 05/30/2007 04 Graduate 120 N

123123Disney High ROBINS CHRIS XXXX 03/08/1987 Freshman 12 Attendee 30 Y Y

123123Disney High SANDERSON GEORGE XXXX 09/16/1989 Freshman 11 05/31/2006 05 GED 90 Y Y

123123Disney High VALIANT EDDIE XXXX 02/03/1989 Freshman 12 05/30/2007 06 Completer 60 Y Y

Sponsor Site: 123 Walt ParishSchool: 123123 Disney High School

2007 Graduation Cohort Roster

Sample - LDE Graduation Cohort Roster

A student must be enrolled in the district by Oct. 1 of year 3 to count in

the district cohort (LEA flag = Y).

A student must count in the district cohort and be enrolled in the school

by Oct. 1 of year 4 to count in the school cohort (Site flag = Y).

ONLY SUBMIT REQUESTS FOR KIDS THAT COUNT

Original Cohort

End Year

School ID School Name Student Name

Student ID Birth Date

Prior End Cat Description

Current End Cat Description

Prior Grad

Points Earned

Incentive Points

Actual Points Earned

2007 123123 Disney High BERRY, HOLLIE XXXXXX 07/29/1989 AttendeeCertificate Completer 30 60 30

2007 123123 Disney High CORE, APPLE XXXXXX 09/21/1988 Attendee Dropout 30 0

2007 123123 Disney High GRIZZLEE, BEAR XXXXXX 10/14/1988 Attendee Graduate 30 120 90

2006 123123 Disney High MOORE, LEESIS XXXXXX 09/22/1988 Attendee Graduate 30 120 90

Sample - LDE Incentive Points Roster2007 Graduation Incentive Points Roster

Sponsor Site: 123 Walt ParishSchool: 123123 Disney High School

Points earned from the original 4-year cohort

Incentive Points earned at the end of year 5 or end of year 6

** A student listed as a Dropout on the incentive points roster does not count against the site. It is listed for informational purposes only.

While we are on Incentive PointsYou don’t get points if you didn’t earn them.

Student exits to adult ed and gets a GED 2 years later.

School does not get points.

Student is no show at beginning of 10th grade.You send a diploma from a private school 3

years later.Student is still a dropout (need request for

records dated before Oct. 1 of “no show” year).55

Cohort Grads

Student goes to credit recovery for 3 months, catches up, and graduates with class.

The original high school didn’t do the work that allowed the student to graduate on time.

Why should they get credit?

Cohort in General

We are finding instances where policy is not being followed in the computer

code as intended. The programs were written before the details of policy.

Insufficient staff may prevent the changes from being made this year.

Consider it a gift!

Accountability UpdateChanges of Note

March ’09 to April ‘10And “THE FEDS” for Fall 2010

Differentiated Accountability

SES before Choice

Grad Cohort

This exit code can only be used when the student is transferring to a school that

awards standard diplomas.

Transfer to Non-Public

Student Result PointsAcademic OR Career/Technical Endorsement 180TOPS Opportunity Award 160BESE Approved Industry Based Certification OR TOPS Tech and Dual Enrollment OR TOPS Tech and Articulated Credit

Regular HS Diploma 120GED 90Skills Certificate/Certificate of Achievement 60Attendee 30Dropout 0

Grad Index

Incentive Points

The student must be enrolled for 45 consecutive days in the school that earns the incentive points (except GEE only).

Incentive points must be earned within 2 years of the 4th year of high school.

Incentive points are not routed.

Alternative Schools

For challenged students only

Minimum n of 40

All FAY students count for assessmentAll non-FAY are routed

Pre-GED are not routed from alternative schools.

Alternative Schools

Includes subgroup COMPONENT

LSMSA still routes scores

Alternatives route to SENDING schools regardless of grade

Adjudicated – scores go with the MFP (legislation pending)

Alternative Schools

No routing across district lines

There is no indication that alternative schools will be excused from SPS or

Subgroup.

The alternative accountability system is still being considered.

Alternative Schools

Submit closures or changes to Sponsor Site

Address the test security issues of programs

Recovery School District

Revisions to law allow this after 5 years in the RSD.

Return to LEA

Limited English Proficient

To exit LEP status;A K-2 student must score for 2

consecutive years;

at Composite Level 5 on ELDAor a combination of

1 year at Composite level 5 and 1 year at grade-level/benchmark/low-risk

on DRA or DIBELS

Alternate AssessmentPerformance Levels

LAA 1 Performance Level Assessment PointsExceeds Standard * 150Meets Standard* 100Working Toward Standard 50Failed to Test or Ineligible 0

LAA 2 Performance Level Assessment PointsBasic* 150Approaching Basic* 100Foundational 50Pre-Foundational 0

* Considered Proficient in Subgroup Calculations

Alternate AssessmentLimits and Assigned Zeroes

Student is assigned zeroes on all 4 tests if the IEP in SER at the time of testing does

not specify that the student qualifies for LAA.

Student is assigned “non-proficient” in subgroup calculations if the state or the

district exceed the “cap.”

The LAA 1 CalculationWhat is the DISTRICT testing population on the day of testing?

6126What is 1% of the testing population?

62 (round up to a whole student)How many LAA 1 students scored ‘proficient’ after zeroes were assigned for ineligibility?

7311 students are non-proficient at SCHOOL, DISTRICT

and STATE levels in all applicable subgroups.

The LAA 2 Calculation (completed after LAA 1)Same as LAA 1 but use 2% and …

If LAA 1 does not exceed the cap, then LAA 1 + LAA 2 can equal 3% of the testing population.

If LAA 1 exceeds the cap, then the LAA 2 limit is 2%

Reportedly, many districts will exceed the 2% cap.

We are required by NCLB to assign zeroes.

Never Presented in Update

Recent Changes Submitted for NOI

Academically Unacceptable Schools

Performance Label School Performance Score

Academically UnacceptableBelow 60.0 (through 2010)Below 65.0 (in 2011)Below 75.0 (in 2012)

Academic Watch60 - 74.9 (in 2010)65.0 - 74.9 (in 2011)

★60.0 – 79.9 (through 2009)75 – 79.9 (beginning in 2010)

Academic Watch lists will be released at the preliminary release.

Graduation Index Adjustment

School’s Earned Graduation Rate - Graduation Rate Target

Target Rate Difference X 1.5 (adjustment factor)

Adjusted Graduation Rate Index

Graduation Rate Targets2011 65%2012 70%2013 75%2014 80%

Compliance with Nevers’s Bill - 2009 Session

Graduation Index Adjustment

IMPACT

Schools with grad rates equal to the target in a given year will not be adjusted.

Schools with a grad rates that exceed the target will be adjusted upward.

Those with grad rates less than the target will be adjusted downward.

Reconfigured Schools

Historically the LDE has gone to great lengths to create new baseline scores for

reconfigured/consolidated schools.

Data will no longer be moved.

The reconfigured school will not receive a growth score the first year it operates

under the new structure.

It will receive a new baseline.

New Schools

New schools in existing districts will enter accountability after the first

year of being open.

New schools in new districts and new charters unaffiliated with a

district will enter accountability after their second year of operation.

New high schools will receive grad cohort calculations after 2 years of

data are gathered.

Disaster – Severe Impact Schools

The year following the disaster Severe Impact Schools shall be

considered new schools and enter accountability according to “new

school” policy.

High School Transition to EOC

2010 is the last administration of iLEAP

2010 Performance Labels shall be assigned to Baseline SPS using traditional calculations.

A transition Baseline will be calculated for 2010

using GEE assessment results.

2011 Growth and Baseline SPS will use GEE assessment results.

High School Transition to EOC

A transition Baseline will be calculated for 2011 using EOC assessment results.

2012 Growth and Baseline SPS will use EOC assessment results.

NEW RELEASE

Feds Approve Louisiana Grad Rate Proposal for Use in Fall 2010 Release

First Public Announcement

Federal Policy

The new rules have not been written into policy yet.

We know they will include new and stricter requirements concerning exit code documentation and legitimate

leaver definitions.

Federal Policy

The long term Louisiana minimally acceptable grad rate goal -

80% in 2022.

State starting point for 2011 (using 2009 data) –63%

State annual targets

Louisiana Annual Graduation Rate Targets

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

63.0% 64.3% 65.6% 66.9% 68.2% 69.5% 70.8% 72.2% 73.5% 74.8% 76.1% 77.4% 78.7% 80.0%

Federal Policy

To determine if a high school has met the Additional Academic Indicator;

1. Did the school meet the LA goal of 80%?; if no,

2. Did the school meet the annual LA target (63% in 2010 (using 2009 data)?; if no,

Federal Policy

School Target Step Calculation

Annual Target Step is the amount a school must improve its graduation rate every year to

meet 80% in 2022.

(80.0 - 2007 grad rate)/15}

Federal Policy

3. Did the school meet the annual school target?; if no,

This table provides the trajectory of schools at 5% intervals – all ending with 80% in 2022.

Annual Target Step 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

60.0% 1.3% 62.7% 64.0% 65.3% 66.7% 68.0% 69.3% 70.7% 72.0% 73.3% 74.7% 76.0% 77.3% 78.7%55.0% 1.7% 58.3% 60.0% 61.7% 63.3% 65.0% 66.7% 68.3% 70.0% 71.7% 73.3% 75.0% 76.7% 78.3%50.0% 2.0% 54.0% 56.0% 58.0% 60.0% 62.0% 64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0% 72.0% 74.0% 76.0% 78.0%45.0% 2.3% 49.7% 52.0% 54.3% 56.7% 59.0% 61.3% 63.7% 66.0% 68.3% 70.7% 73.0% 75.3% 77.7%40.0% 2.7% 45.3% 48.0% 50.7% 53.3% 56.0% 58.7% 61.3% 64.0% 66.7% 69.3% 72.0% 74.7% 77.3%35.0% 3.0% 41.0% 44.0% 47.0% 50.0% 53.0% 56.0% 59.0% 62.0% 65.0% 68.0% 71.0% 74.0% 77.0%30.0% 3.3% 36.7% 40.0% 43.3% 46.7% 50.0% 53.3% 56.7% 60.0% 63.3% 66.7% 70.0% 73.3% 76.7%

Federal Policy

4. Did the school meet 110% of the annual target step?

A school at 50% in 2007 has an “annual target step” of 2.0.

110% of 2.0 is 2.2, so the school passes AAI if it grew 2.2% in the past year.

A “YES” at any time means the school passed the AAI.

Federal Policy

This applies to “whole school” and to subgroups in “safe harbor” in

2010 and 2011.

It will apply to all subgroups in 2012 and future – a new AMO.

Federal Policy

Bulletin 111 will require substantial revision to comply with the new

federal rules.

It should go to BESE in June or July depending on the BESE office.

You have sufficient information to estimate how your schools will fare

this fall.

Policy changes are published in the Louisiana Register after BESE initially approves.

They are also summarized in the District Superintendents’ Update

http://www.louisianaschools.net/lde/superintendent/1839.asp

Policy Staff

Wendy.Baudoin@la.gov 225-342-3461Thelma.Bibbs@la.gov 225-219-7512John.Bishop@la.gov 225-342-3512Erica.Thomas@la.gov 225-342-2464Li.Liu@la.govZhanying.Zong@la.govtspencer@la.gov

BULLETIN 111-The LA School, District, and State Accountability System B111 lags several months

All policy http://www.doe.state.la.us/lde/bese/1041.html

The Graduation Cohort Α to Ω

Documents