The Road AheadAdaptation and Resilience in Uncertain

Times

Visions of the FutureVisions of the Future

"We look at the past through the "We look at the past through the prism of the present and try to prism of the present and try to discern the future." discern the future."

Holocaust historian, Lucy DavidowiczHolocaust historian, Lucy Davidowicz

People tend to interpret the past and People tend to interpret the past and project onto the future a view that project onto the future a view that reinforces their current beliefs.reinforces their current beliefs.

The JetsonsThe Jetsons

We don’t need to change BAU as We don’t need to change BAU as technology will find the answer. Human technology will find the answer. Human Progress is continuous.Progress is continuous.

Popular with people who tend to support Popular with people who tend to support the status quo.the status quo.

The Progress ParadigmThe Progress Paradigm

The idea of perpetual progress is The idea of perpetual progress is relatively newrelatively new

Medieval/Renaissance period looked Medieval/Renaissance period looked back to the classical period as the back to the classical period as the pinnacle of development from which pinnacle of development from which mankind had fallenmankind had fallen

The Enlightenment – we know more The Enlightenment – we know more about the world than anyone before about the world than anyone before us and we are learning more every us and we are learning more every day.day.

A Linear View of HistoryA Linear View of History

Judeo Christian world view has a Judeo Christian world view has a beginning, middle and end.beginning, middle and end.

Non-western religious views tend to Non-western religious views tend to be cyclicalbe cyclical

A Linear view not only involves divine A Linear view not only involves divine providence in our lives but providence in our lives but incorporates the idea of moving to incorporates the idea of moving to some final destinysome final destiny

1919thth Century Progress Century Progress

Misinterpretation Misinterpretation of Darwin – of Darwin – species evolve to species evolve to more complex, more complex, better formsbetter forms

Evolution is not Evolution is not linear or linear or hierarchical but hierarchical but we are we are conditioned to conditioned to see it that waysee it that way

Capitalism – freedom of thought and act frees Capitalism – freedom of thought and act frees humanity from constraints and anything is humanity from constraints and anything is possible. possible. – Coupled with inventions for mass production and Coupled with inventions for mass production and

the resources to make that production possiblethe resources to make that production possible

Marxism – social evolution towards a socialist Marxism – social evolution towards a socialist ideal was inevitable ideal was inevitable – possible due to the technological advances of the possible due to the technological advances of the

industrial revolutionindustrial revolution– Nature should be exploited for the good of allNature should be exploited for the good of all

2020thth Century Progress Century ProgressMore Bigger Better FasterMore Bigger Better Faster

Increased technological developments Increased technological developments allowed for even faster extraction of natural allowed for even faster extraction of natural resourcesresources

Focus on time saving – resulting in massive Focus on time saving – resulting in massive increase in productivityincrease in productivity

Increase in productivity resulted in goods Increase in productivity resulted in goods available for less cost – more people could available for less cost – more people could buy more stuffbuy more stuff

Advertising, especially after WWII massively Advertising, especially after WWII massively increased demand for manufactured goodsincreased demand for manufactured goods

Components of the Progress Components of the Progress ParadigmParadigm

Technology will keep improvingTechnology will keep improving Technology will solve our problemsTechnology will solve our problems Humanity will overcome war, Humanity will overcome war,

disease, povertydisease, poverty If we run out of one resource we will If we run out of one resource we will

find another to replace itfind another to replace it Going backward or becoming less Going backward or becoming less

complex is unthinkable.complex is unthinkable.

By mid century the Progress By mid century the Progress paradigm began to be questioned – paradigm began to be questioned – the result was the environmental the result was the environmental movement and environmental movement and environmental regulationregulation

Policy makers still continue to Policy makers still continue to promise continued growth and no promise continued growth and no diminishment of “The American Way diminishment of “The American Way of Life.”of Life.”

Progress

Resources

The Progress Paradigm rests on the foundation of available natural resources.

Progress Depleted Resources

As early as 1798, Thomas Malthus argues that the party couldn’t go on forever. However, advances and agriculture and fossil fuels changed everything because they made it possible to grow more food to support an every growing population.

Technology seemed to provide the answer to the Malthusian dilemma

Population

History of Energy Use in the US

A finite system A finite system cannot support cannot support infinite growthinfinite growth

Mad MaxMad Max

Overpopulation and over use of resources will Overpopulation and over use of resources will create a Hobbesian, dog-eat-dog future and the create a Hobbesian, dog-eat-dog future and the collapse of civilization as we know it.collapse of civilization as we know it.

Appeals to people less invested in the status quo Appeals to people less invested in the status quo (with lots of guns and fast cars?) who favor an (with lots of guns and fast cars?) who favor an individualist perspective. (Right wing – anti-individualist perspective. (Right wing – anti-establishment)establishment)

HobbitonHobbiton

The exploitation of the earth and its resources will cause The exploitation of the earth and its resources will cause economic and social collapse but the current system will economic and social collapse but the current system will be replaced with a sustainable & more simple lifestylebe replaced with a sustainable & more simple lifestyle

Appeals to people less invested in the status quo who Appeals to people less invested in the status quo who oppose the current globalized, corporate centered oppose the current globalized, corporate centered economy and come from a communalist (Left-wing anti economy and come from a communalist (Left-wing anti establishment)establishment)

The RaptureThe Rapture

All the problems we now face are signs that the end All the problems we now face are signs that the end of History is near. The faithful will be raptured up to of History is near. The faithful will be raptured up to heaven, leaving the unfaithful to face the tribulations heaven, leaving the unfaithful to face the tribulations and the final battle between good and evil. Our use and the final battle between good and evil. Our use of resources really doesn’t make any differenceof resources really doesn’t make any difference

Appeals to some Evangelical Christians but a group Appeals to some Evangelical Christians but a group which has been a very politically influential minority.which has been a very politically influential minority.

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”

Physicist Neils Bohr

“Earth Day is a holiday for liars….”

The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate...

Paul Ehrlich – The Population Bomb - 1960

Alan Caruba 4/21/08

The Hazards of Specific

Predictions

Cassandra Syndrome Cassandra – someone who warns

of impending disaster. Mythical Trojan prophetess given the gift of prophesy but cursed that no one would ever believe her.

'Cassandra dilemma' - one can see the most likely outcome of current trends and can warn people about what is happening, but the vast majority can not, or will not respond, and later if catastrophe occurs, they may even blame you, as if your prediction set the disaster in motion.

What people often forget is What people often forget is that Cassandra was rightthat Cassandra was right

Tectonic StressesTectonic StressesThomas Homer-Dixon- Thomas Homer-Dixon- The Upside of DownThe Upside of Down

Population stress arising from differences in the population growth rates between rich and poor societies, and from the spiraling growth of megacities in poor countries;

Energy stress —above all from the increasing scarcity of conventional oil;

Environmental stress from worsening damage to our land, water, forests, and fisheries;

Climate stress from changes in the makeup of our atmosphere;

Economic stress resulting from instabilities in the global economic system and ever-widening income gaps between rich and poor people

Stresses are interconnected Stresses are interconnected and cannot be viewed and cannot be viewed

separatelyseparately

Population

Peak oil Rich/Poor

Environment

Climate

Synchronous Failure

Many things going wrong at once Interconnected stresses that could

be manageable in isolation become unmanageable in combination

Hurricanes + Lack of Infrastructure Investment+ Impoverished population

+Governmental Incompetence

9.0 Earthquake + 100ft Tsunami + partial nuclear meltdown

Heat and drought + increased development + dead trees

Policy Pyramid

Non- Linear Change and Black Swan Events

Change is not always incremental it can be abrupt, unexpected and severe

Basing expectations on what has been does not always prepare for what may be– “A turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a

butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement.”

Nassim Taleb

How do we plan for uncertainty?

Insurance – only 2% of people experience a fire in their house in their lifetime but everyone with a mortgage has insurance.

Tsunami Preparation in Humboldt County– Planning and Education– Coordination and Practice

Adaptation and Resilience

Adaptation – a process of deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress.

Resilience – the ability to handle dynamic, unexpected changes without threatening to collapse. The capacity to absorb shocks and adapt to them.

Where we are now

Adaptation and Resilie

nce

Where we need to go

So… why aren’t we taking action to increase resiliency?

Roadblocks

Psychological Technical Economic Political

Psychological Roadblocks

“An out of context problem” A Preference for optimism Deferring to Authority Focus on the present rather than the

future Denial

– Existential – It’s not happening– Consequential – OK its happening but its not

serious– Fatalistic – OK its happening, its serious, but

we can’t do anything about it

Technological Roadblocks

There is at present no substitute for fossil fuels that has the adequate– Scale– Storage– Transportability

Economic Roadblocks

People in the developing world seek to reach the levels of consumption of the developed world

Transition can be pricy! A “healthy economy” requires continued

high levels of resource consumption Adaptation and resilience requires

spending money at a time where austerity it a stated solution to the economic crisis

Political Roadblocks

Environmental Issues have become wedge issues in the US – partisan sorting

Both state and Federal Government are in policy gridlock

No one wins elections by delivering bad news

Can we get there from here?

Social Change 1.0Social Change 1.0

Command and Control (Sticks)Command and Control (Sticks)– Government laws and regulations

Financial incentives Financial incentives ProtestsProtests Problems with the current modelProblems with the current model

– Laws tend to be incremental (slow small steps)– Incentives only work if people are inclined to

do something anyway– Protests point out what is wrong but do not

create what is right

“Not only do we have to re-invent the world, we have to re-invent the process by which we re-invent the world.” – David Gershon Social Change 2.0

The Starting point for change is the individual

We change our institutions they don’t change us

People need a vision of where they want to go to begin the journey

These changes can be accelerated and reinforced with the right laws and financial incentives, but the process begins with us.

Bottom Up not Top down

Social Change 2.0Social Change 2.0

Develop a vision of what you want to see Develop a vision of what you want to see happenhappen

Enlist the support and “buy in” by local Enlist the support and “buy in” by local government through a like minded government through a like minded individualindividual– Use their knowledge of the area to know how to

design the program– Use their status to overcome potential

bureaucratic obstacles Recruit members of the community and Recruit members of the community and

train them in the modeltrain them in the model

From the individual……From the individual……

““Taking personal responsibility to Taking personal responsibility to make the needed changes within make the needed changes within ourselves and our communities is the ourselves and our communities is the foundation for changing our foundation for changing our institutions, not the other way institutions, not the other way around.”around.”

…………To the collectiveTo the collective Overcoming the tendency of society to hold on Overcoming the tendency of society to hold on

to the status quoto the status quo Overcoming denial that there is a flaw in the Overcoming denial that there is a flaw in the

current paradigmcurrent paradigm

For all the effort being undertaken For all the effort being undertaken internationally to address climate, little if any is internationally to address climate, little if any is being made towards building bridges through being made towards building bridges through and past a period of declining growth and and past a period of declining growth and wealth. Cognitive dissonance meet group wealth. Cognitive dissonance meet group think...think... – Nate Hagens “Dear Candidate - What Will You Do if Growth Is Over...?”

Solvitur ambulandoSolvitur ambulando ““It is solved by walking.”It is solved by walking.” We will figure this out as we go along, We will figure this out as we go along,

“this” being how to address the “this” being how to address the stressesstresses

Concentrate on the journey – not the Concentrate on the journey – not the destinationdestination

Solutions will emerge incrementally Solutions will emerge incrementally rather than in a “one size fits all” rather than in a “one size fits all” utopian movementutopian movement

No Regrets PolicyNo Regrets Policy Pursue policies that make sense Pursue policies that make sense

even if the dire predictions are even if the dire predictions are exaggerated or wrongexaggerated or wrong– Less pollution and climate changeLess pollution and climate change– Less dependence on foreign oil and Less dependence on foreign oil and

political instabilitypolitical instability– Infrastructure investment’s long term Infrastructure investment’s long term

payoffpayoff– Stronger and healthier local Stronger and healthier local

communitiescommunities

H.E.L.P.H.E.L.P. Humanize Humanize – build community– build community Economize Economize – Don’t overspend – – Don’t overspend –

get out of debtget out of debt LocalizeLocalize – support local industry – support local industry

and agricultureand agriculture ProduceProduce – learn new skills – learn new skills